WEBVTT - Investing during times of conflict

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<v Speaker 1>Jordah and welcome to Shed Lunch brought to you by Chase's.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Helen Madison, and today we look at what it's

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<v Speaker 1>like to invest in times of conflict. The Israeli Iran

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<v Speaker 1>US ceasefire is fragile at best, but it's been a

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<v Speaker 1>new wrecking time for investors to find out what all

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<v Speaker 1>this means. I'll be joined by Nicholas Bagnell, who is

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<v Speaker 1>the founder of the global equities fund t Ahu Mairangi,

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<v Speaker 1>and our own Chezi's Matt McPherson, who is the head

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<v Speaker 1>of Kbsaber. But before we get started, here's some important information.

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<v Speaker 2>Investing and involves a risk you might lose the money

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<v Speaker 2>you start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor.

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<v Speaker 2>We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything you're about to see and here is current at

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<v Speaker 2>the time of recording.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome Nicholas, and welcome Matt.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you som the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Markets seem to have taken in their stride if you

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<v Speaker 1>like the conflict that we've been seeing that's been playing

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<v Speaker 1>out in the last fortnight or so. Nichourse, I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to start with you and to see what you thought

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<v Speaker 1>about this business of riding back into positive territory when

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<v Speaker 1>it is a time of conflict.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I guess at one level, I am cautious about

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<v Speaker 3>the level of equity markets, but I don't know that

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<v Speaker 3>the conflict necessarily has wide negative implications for the share market.

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<v Speaker 3>It's there are very few Western companies that have much

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<v Speaker 3>revenue from Iran or even from the Middle Eastern in total,

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<v Speaker 3>which is different to say, the Ukraine Russian conflict, where

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<v Speaker 3>you had quite a few Western companies that might have

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<v Speaker 3>had two or three or four percent of their revenue

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<v Speaker 3>coming from Russia before that conflict broke out, and that

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<v Speaker 3>essentially disappeared for them. So that the main main implication

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<v Speaker 3>for companies that are operating in Europe and Asia and

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<v Speaker 3>North America is what it does to the oil price.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, oil has gone down up, and it seems like

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<v Speaker 1>any gains that have retreated that didn't seem to happen

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<v Speaker 1>from my memory with the Ukraine Russia situation so quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>What is happening with the oil price? Is it? What

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<v Speaker 1>are the reasons why it might have fallen again?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm no expert on it, but I think it's because

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's done nothing as of yet to block the Straits

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<v Speaker 3>of Humas, which takes oil in and out of the

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<v Speaker 3>Persian Gulf, which I think is about twenty percent of

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<v Speaker 3>the world's oil production moves through there, and that was

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<v Speaker 3>the major concern that saw the oil price moving up

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<v Speaker 3>as this conflicts was starting. I mean, it is still

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<v Speaker 3>affecting oil supply because I gather that a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>shipping companies aren't particularly keen to send to send ships

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<v Speaker 3>into the Persian Gulf. But you know, the world has

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<v Speaker 3>been well supplied with a will in the last few months.

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<v Speaker 3>Even when the oil price spiked up, it's i think

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<v Speaker 3>still lower than it was a few months ago, so

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<v Speaker 3>it's not at a level that's causing stress for many companies.

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<v Speaker 1>As you say, we're not quite sure where this will

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<v Speaker 1>all go. I mean, the big question is where or

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<v Speaker 1>what Russia may or may not do, And it may

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<v Speaker 1>not be immediate, it may be a bit further down

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<v Speaker 1>the track, and there has some commentators have suggested that

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<v Speaker 1>they would want to kind of flex their muscle again

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East, and that they might even help

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<v Speaker 1>in some way to get Iran's nuclear capability back in

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<v Speaker 1>some form. What's your view on the Russian situation.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think the Russians want to be involved.

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<v Speaker 2>Again.

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<v Speaker 3>It looks to me like Putin is all about Russian

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<v Speaker 3>self interest. He's not a man of principle and the

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<v Speaker 3>you know, they were mates with Basha in Syria, but

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<v Speaker 3>they didn't intervene when that regime falled, so fell. So

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure they'll use it to point to hypocrisy between

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<v Speaker 3>the US and Israel breaching international law. While you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they were condemned when they did it with Ukraine, but

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<v Speaker 3>they are fully occupied with Ukraine. They're struggling there. I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think they want to divert any military resources to Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>What about our biggest trading partner, China.

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<v Speaker 3>They were happy to buy oil from Iran when the

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<v Speaker 3>rest of the world was boycotting them. But I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think that they have any interest in getting involved. So, yeah, we.

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<v Speaker 1>Shall see times ahead. I'll bring you in here speaking

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<v Speaker 1>of conflict and times of conflict. We have launched today.

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<v Speaker 1>She'sy's the self select for the key we Saver scheme

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<v Speaker 1>that we run. And some would say, gosh, why would

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<v Speaker 1>you be doing that when we've had a week like

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<v Speaker 1>we have, So yeah, keen to get your thoughts on there.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we launched about fifty five companies and ETFs from

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<v Speaker 4>the US markets this morning. And I'm not going to

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<v Speaker 4>say we weren't paying attention to what was going on,

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<v Speaker 4>but I guess, you know, this US trading feature has

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<v Speaker 4>been our most commonly requested feature from customers. We've been

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<v Speaker 4>on this for several quarters. Our plans to bring this

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<v Speaker 4>to life are phased over weeks. We have a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of delivery and testing and things that we go through.

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<v Speaker 4>So I guess we just took our own advice, which

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<v Speaker 4>is don't try and time the market, and so when

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<v Speaker 4>we were ready, you know, we rolled out. That happened

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<v Speaker 4>to be today. But yeah, nervous over the weekend about

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<v Speaker 4>what was happening for our scheme. I guess also just

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<v Speaker 4>nervous about what it could mean, you know, for the world,

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<v Speaker 4>and or that people were in terrible situations as well

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<v Speaker 4>in that part of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we must remember that too. So far, Chesse investors

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<v Speaker 1>seemed to have not taken the fear too seriously with

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<v Speaker 1>the conflict. There haven't been not of selling or panic

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<v Speaker 1>or anything like that. Do you think there will be

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<v Speaker 1>a bit more caution with something like this, though given

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<v Speaker 1>the situation, who quite knows where it's going to end.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think so. I mean twenty twenty five has

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<v Speaker 4>been pretty choppy, and we had Liberation Day in April,

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<v Speaker 4>which was around the time that we launched another US

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<v Speaker 4>themed fund. And I guess what we see more and

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<v Speaker 4>more is a really mature who are kind of approach

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<v Speaker 4>from investors around volatility. There has been a number of

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<v Speaker 4>significant events we you know, I think people learned a

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<v Speaker 4>lot from COVID about acting on emotion, certainly with respect

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<v Speaker 4>to changing their their KIV saver kind of their funds.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think people, you know, you can be upset,

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<v Speaker 4>you can be you can be concerned. But I think

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<v Speaker 4>what people get, and I speak to a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>customers about this, is they get that that the worst

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<v Speaker 4>thing they can do is actually act in haste and

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<v Speaker 4>try and you know, switch their settings off the base

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<v Speaker 4>of sort of sentiment and things like that. So back

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<v Speaker 4>to the basics. You know, understand your investment horizon, your

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<v Speaker 4>your ability to be able to deal with volatility, and

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<v Speaker 4>then you know, let time.

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<v Speaker 1>Work for you. Nicholas, You've been investing professionally for more

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<v Speaker 1>than thirty five years. You've seen conflicts come and go.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm conscious to see, and a lot of that was

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<v Speaker 1>actually with ACC, wasn't it. I mean probably the majority

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<v Speaker 1>of that time was with ACC. And you you're picking

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<v Speaker 1>stocks for wholesale and retail investors. I'm keen to see

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<v Speaker 1>what your views are on how to protect the assets

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<v Speaker 1>of investors, particularly in times of conflict. I mean you

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<v Speaker 1>will have seen a few, would you say to that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we follow a sort of a lower risk approach,

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<v Speaker 3>So we emphasize investing in load to average risk companies

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<v Speaker 3>and avoiding volatile companies where we don't have good visibility

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<v Speaker 3>about future earnings. And that that does mean that we

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<v Speaker 3>you know that the fund that we manage it tends

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<v Speaker 3>to fall a lot less during market decline. So you know,

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<v Speaker 3>certain types of companies, cyclical companies, the ones that are

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<v Speaker 3>trading on high valueations, are more vulnerable in times of uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>So rather than relying on on making timely decisions when

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<v Speaker 3>conflict breaks out, we at all times tend to hold

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<v Speaker 3>companies with a relatively certain future that won't be too

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<v Speaker 3>affected by you know, a spike in the oil price

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<v Speaker 3>or something like that. I mean, you can you can

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<v Speaker 3>still get caught out when when Russia invaded Ukraine. We

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<v Speaker 3>had some companies that did have a little bit of

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<v Speaker 3>earnings from Russia and that hurt us in a very

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<v Speaker 3>small way. But it's so it's partly about diversification, but

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<v Speaker 3>it's it's also about not investing too heavily in companies

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<v Speaker 3>that heavily dependent on economic conditions and over the long run,

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<v Speaker 3>even though investors have done well from taking risk when

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<v Speaker 3>they move from bonds into equities, within the equity market,

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<v Speaker 3>there's been no better return from the highest risk companies

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<v Speaker 3>than they are from the lowest risk. So there's no

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<v Speaker 3>reward for risk within the equity market. There is from

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<v Speaker 3>moving from fixed interest into equities. So we prefer to

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<v Speaker 3>invest in low risk companies within the equity market because.

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<v Speaker 1>You still think you can get the returns or history

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<v Speaker 1>has shown and you can get the returns as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to sticking with the high risk which jumps into and

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<v Speaker 1>has FAUMO and all of that. Yeah, okay, And that said, though,

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<v Speaker 1>you need to be able to research those companies. For

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<v Speaker 1>the poor old retail investor who's kind of looking around

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<v Speaker 1>and seeing what their friends are doing and everybody else,

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<v Speaker 1>that might be a bit more difficult, mightn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, though generally I would say it's easier to research

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<v Speaker 3>less risky companies than it is ones at the more

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<v Speaker 3>volatile end, because if you're buying a Tesla or an Nvidia,

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<v Speaker 3>you're you're really guessing about what they will look like

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<v Speaker 3>in a future that looks vastly different from today. If

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<v Speaker 3>you're buying a regulated utility or a company that's selling

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<v Speaker 3>something like laundry powder, you know that that market's not

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<v Speaker 3>going to be that much different in a decade time

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<v Speaker 3>than it is now. And if market shares shift, they

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<v Speaker 3>shift slowly. So yeah, we as a general rule, we

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<v Speaker 3>find companies where you can be relatively certain about the future,

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<v Speaker 3>also the least risky ones.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Okay, Matt. If we look at the self select

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<v Speaker 1>key we saver launch that we've got, that's that's as

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<v Speaker 1>you said before, fifty plus stocks. Are there any defense

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<v Speaker 1>related stocks.

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<v Speaker 4>In that Yeah, I wouldn't say there are any that

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<v Speaker 4>are specialist defense companies in that list. There are a

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<v Speaker 4>number of companies that are classified as defense of aerospace

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<v Speaker 4>set within say, within the index, within the s P

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<v Speaker 4>five hundred, the companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin and

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<v Speaker 4>names like that, they are categorized. Those are not companies

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<v Speaker 4>we offer individually, but they are components of several of

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<v Speaker 4>the major indices.

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<v Speaker 1>So through ETFs, I could be investing in those, is

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<v Speaker 1>what you're saying, that's correct.

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<v Speaker 4>And then there are other companies that have defense contracts.

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<v Speaker 4>So companies Pounteers are pretty well known company that has

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<v Speaker 4>defense contracts, even though it's not segmented as being a

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<v Speaker 4>defense or aerospace company itself.

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose it's defining what defenses, isn't it. Whether whether

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking manufacturer weapons, But there's many, many aspects. It's

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<v Speaker 1>quite a general term.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's a challenging area, I guess because you know,

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<v Speaker 4>companies probably like coke and pepsi and things probably supply

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<v Speaker 4>to the defense force and so, but I wouldn't say

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<v Speaker 4>that the defense orientated.

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<v Speaker 1>Companies interesting, isn't it? Yeah, Nicholas. If we look at

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<v Speaker 1>the US dollar, that always has a bearing, particularly given

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<v Speaker 1>it sort of like the global currency, if you like.

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<v Speaker 1>I do know though that it went up and it

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<v Speaker 1>went down a little bit like the old price. I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose it does seem to be though that its popularity

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<v Speaker 1>is less than perhaps during other conflicts I mean, we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen a lot of sovereign funds, some central banks considering

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<v Speaker 1>their reserves being and other things besides the greenback. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>just keen for your perspective on the US dollar and

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<v Speaker 1>whether we think that has a bearing on So you're

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<v Speaker 1>investing in the US, I think forty seven percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the funders in the US. Yeah, So how does currency

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<v Speaker 1>correlate with investing offshore? Particularly the US currency?

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<v Speaker 3>What's I mean? It is an essential part of your

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<v Speaker 3>portfolio everists. I mean generally, if you're investing in companies

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<v Speaker 3>that that operate globally, there's there's a there tends to

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<v Speaker 3>be a partial offset between local currency, share price movements

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<v Speaker 3>and currency movements. So if you're buying you know, the

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<v Speaker 3>likes of Microsoft or Apple that is selling around the world,

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<v Speaker 3>if the US dollar goes down, then the value of

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<v Speaker 3>their non US revenues goes up, so you get a

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<v Speaker 3>partial offset. The I mean, I I don't have any

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<v Speaker 3>strong views on the US dollar and certainly how it

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<v Speaker 3>should be affected by the outbreak of the conflict that

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 3>has tended at the very much at the margin to

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 3>be a sort of a bit of a flight to

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 3>safety sometimes and and and during you know, currencies like

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 3>the end have tended to be more have have had

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 3>a stronger tendency to outform during market weakness, but they

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 3>don't necessarily when it's to do with strong oil prices

0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.360
<v Speaker 3>because they are neting boards over well. But I mean,

0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 3>the US economy has a lot of issues with big

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:43.320
<v Speaker 3>fiscal and trade death sits and and and certainly the

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.600
<v Speaker 3>what Trump is talking about doing in terms of the

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:51.440
<v Speaker 3>sort of revenge taxes could turn a lot of people

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 3>off investing. And you know what is already that the

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 3>world's most expensive share markets, so you know there are

0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:04.360
<v Speaker 3>risks to holding that much exposure to the US dollar.

0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 4>I guess what we see talking to customers is the

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 4>big brands coming out of the states that are global

0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:17.640
<v Speaker 4>that people buy from often the ones that people also

0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:21.720
<v Speaker 4>want to own part of. And I guess that's why

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:24.400
<v Speaker 4>we have so many people asking us, you know, when

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.120
<v Speaker 4>we're going to include some US companies in our KIP saver.

0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.000
<v Speaker 4>People feel quite strongly about some of these brands, and

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 4>they've been lifelong customers of them, So I think it's

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 4>probably comes at it for US as more of a

0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 4>consumer kind of lead demand rather than the pure technicalities

0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 4>of investing.

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 3>I think.

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Nicholas just thinking about New Zealand and whether or not

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 1>this conflict and with an investor lens, whether that has

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:59.120
<v Speaker 1>any bearing for people here or our economy. Inflation, for example,

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 1>there has been talked with that if oil prices do

0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.560
<v Speaker 1>rise again, it'll be inflationary. Just ye, ken on your perspective.

0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 3>Certainly, if oil prices rose a lot further than we've

0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.600
<v Speaker 3>seen so far, they could have a bearing on inflation.

0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 3>And the New Zealand dollar is also can have a

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 3>bigger influence. It's New Zealand dollars off obviously off, it's

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.080
<v Speaker 3>it's it's lows, which is deflationary.

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:32.200
<v Speaker 1>But that's right, yeah, Matt. In terms of the keep

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 1>we Saber funds, if oil prices were to rise and

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 1>it was inflationary, what would there be an effect there?

0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.120
<v Speaker 1>Can you explain what perhaps could?

0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 4>I mean? The classic scenario is that if oil prices

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 4>go up, businesses costs go up, they passed them on

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.960
<v Speaker 4>to consumers, which is inflationary, and then central banks around

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 4>the world will want to step in and try and

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:03.280
<v Speaker 4>curb that by increasing interest rates. And you know, increased

0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 4>borrowing costs is generally not good for businesses, and so yeah,

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 4>oil prices increasing, I think translates to a headwind for

0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:19.879
<v Speaker 4>business like globally. Now that's kind of the theory. I

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.520
<v Speaker 4>don't know what's going to happen in this situation where

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.280
<v Speaker 4>you know, but but yeah, I mean, rising oil prices

0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.159
<v Speaker 4>translates to a lot of pain for a lot of

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 4>people right throughout the system.

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I think maybe a question for you, Nicholas, I mean

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.200
<v Speaker 1>rising oil prices, as oil as powerful as it used

0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:44.880
<v Speaker 1>to be, as we decarbonize, isn't it eventually a sunset industry?

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 3>It is, And certainly oil consumption as a proportional GDP

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.439
<v Speaker 3>has come down over time, so it's less important than

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:57.680
<v Speaker 3>once was. And certainly I mean in terms of dollars,

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.080
<v Speaker 3>when when you're talking about whether it's six or seventy dollars,

0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:12.960
<v Speaker 3>that's that is less significant for companies and and for

0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.879
<v Speaker 3>inflation than when you were talking about one twenty or

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:22.440
<v Speaker 3>one forty. It's sort of so yeah, it's certainly what

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.879
<v Speaker 3>we've seen so far in the conflict is not really

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.520
<v Speaker 3>moving the need all that much. And as I said before,

0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, I think if you look back at the

0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:33.879
<v Speaker 3>start of the year, we probably had oil prices but

0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:35.360
<v Speaker 3>higher than they are today.

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:38.600
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah, Matt, just getting back

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.639
<v Speaker 1>to something that you said before about investors and getting

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:45.680
<v Speaker 1>more use to volatility. What about if you don't have

0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time, or that you're thinking you might

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:53.440
<v Speaker 1>like to get a deposit for a house. What can

0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 1>people be thinking about? What can investors be considering given

0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:01.320
<v Speaker 1>that there could be more volatility? Or it's about writing

0:20:01.320 --> 0:20:01.680
<v Speaker 1>it out.

0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:08.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think I'll just repeat like a really well

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 4>tried in line here, which is, understand your investment horizon.

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:19.439
<v Speaker 4>If you are looking at investing in equities, have a

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:23.359
<v Speaker 4>ten year horizon. If you need your money back in

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 4>less time than that, then think about are a more

0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:29.320
<v Speaker 4>conservative allocation?

0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:34.320
<v Speaker 1>Mm hmm, as in you're thinking, yeah, look at it.

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.160
<v Speaker 4>All depends on that time. I mean, you know, within

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.199
<v Speaker 4>a couple of years, you'd be looking at a conservative

0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:46.240
<v Speaker 4>be certainly looking hard at conservative funds, you know, two

0:20:46.280 --> 0:20:49.879
<v Speaker 4>to five balanced funds. We've seen a lot of people

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.800
<v Speaker 4>over time end up in situations where they were trying

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:56.720
<v Speaker 4>to take their money out at exactly the wrong time,

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:02.399
<v Speaker 4>and with hindsight, those people that they should have understood

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:03.680
<v Speaker 4>your investment horizon.

0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.520
<v Speaker 1>Now I want to ask you both before we finish,

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.800
<v Speaker 1>what should investors be thinking about when there is conflict

0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:13.600
<v Speaker 1>in the world, given that a lot of our investors,

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:15.639
<v Speaker 1>particularly are invested offshore.

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:20.960
<v Speaker 3>Nicholas, I mean, I would caution against making changes to

0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:27.960
<v Speaker 3>your portfolio because of the outbreak of conflict. And you know,

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:33.959
<v Speaker 3>good investment is about choosing a portfolio. We shouldn't have

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.399
<v Speaker 3>to change it where you don't suddenly realize you've got

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:42.879
<v Speaker 3>a risk when conflict breaks out. So yeah, I would.

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:48.160
<v Speaker 3>I mean, sometimes market reactions or lack of reaction can

0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:52.439
<v Speaker 3>create an opportunity, but there's there's no It's going to

0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.360
<v Speaker 3>be different each time. So you shouldn't think that there's

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:58.000
<v Speaker 3>some simple rule that you should buy something or sell

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:02.679
<v Speaker 3>something when conflict breaks out. You know, we're all always

0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:08.080
<v Speaker 3>looking at companies trying to fore cars what future cash

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:12.640
<v Speaker 3>flows we think they can deliver to shareholders and see

0:22:12.880 --> 0:22:14.439
<v Speaker 3>is that a good return and is it better than

0:22:14.480 --> 0:22:16.960
<v Speaker 3>we can earn elsewhere, So we can repeating that in

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:23.480
<v Speaker 3>analysis whether we've got conflict or not. But it's not. Yeah,

0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:26.760
<v Speaker 3>there's no simple rule that you should buy A and

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:28.720
<v Speaker 3>sell B when conflict breaks out.

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:32.399
<v Speaker 1>Matt, what's your perspective because I mean, a lot of

0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:35.879
<v Speaker 1>key we saver investors probably you know, listen to the

0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:38.800
<v Speaker 1>news or watch it and you know on social media,

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:41.639
<v Speaker 1>and we have a lot more coming at us now

0:22:42.680 --> 0:22:46.919
<v Speaker 1>and it might be harder to resist fear or whatever

0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:51.080
<v Speaker 1>might be happening at the time. So, yeah, what's your perspective. Yeah?

0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:53.920
<v Speaker 4>Interesting. On the weekend I saw a number of professional

0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:58.159
<v Speaker 4>professionals and commentators advising people not to look at their

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:02.440
<v Speaker 4>KIPI savers again, and like, it's good advice, don't get

0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:07.120
<v Speaker 4>me wrong, but it's also not the advice that those

0:23:07.160 --> 0:23:10.920
<v Speaker 4>professionals follow themselves, you know, And so you know, if

0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 4>it's really good advice, then it should be for everyone.

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 4>I think just contrary to that, I think confident investors

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:22.159
<v Speaker 4>are comfortable with volatility and portfolio is they realize that

0:23:22.160 --> 0:23:27.000
<v Speaker 4>that's an element of a healthy market and reflects that

0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:30.880
<v Speaker 4>they've got risk in their portfolio, which over the long term,

0:23:31.080 --> 0:23:35.719
<v Speaker 4>you know, risk equals well translates into into returns to

0:23:35.720 --> 0:23:39.359
<v Speaker 4>something which type of risk. Yeah, I seen, But I

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:44.359
<v Speaker 4>guess the point is I'm not a believer in ignoring it.

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 4>I think I think to become confident, I don't think

0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 4>you should always put your head in the sand. I

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:53.399
<v Speaker 4>think the only way to get to get comfortable with

0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 4>it is through some experience.

0:23:55.760 --> 0:23:58.800
<v Speaker 1>Thanks Nicholas and Matt, and thank you for joining us.

0:23:58.880 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 1>You can watch Shared Lunch on YouTube or follow us

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:04.680
<v Speaker 1>on your favorite podcast s app leave us a rating

0:24:04.840 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 1>and tell us what you'd like to hear next. Ma

0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:12.600
<v Speaker 1>Towa