1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,800 Speaker 1: Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editors. 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:03,800 Speaker 2: But that's Thomas Hallow Afternoon, Heather. 3 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: How did they get their numbers so wrong? 4 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 2: So that basically this is a childcare rebate. You spend 5 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 2: money at ECE and you send in your receipts and 6 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: you get twenty five percent of that money that you 7 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 2: spend back. The screw up appears to have been that 8 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 2: IID doesn't actually know They know how much money you earn, 9 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 2: They know a lot of stuff about you, the IID, 10 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,639 Speaker 2: but they don't actually know how much people spend on 11 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: childcare because obviously IID isn't looking through your bank account, thankfully, 12 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 2: and so essentially that's where the stuff up seems to 13 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: have been. Last year, they estimated the amount of money 14 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: that people were spending on childcare, and it turns out 15 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: that we're actually spending a bit less on childcare than 16 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 2: they thought. And that's why their costings for this policy, 17 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: this childcare rebate, were way way off, because that the 18 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: costing that they delivered to Nicola Willis last year was 19 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: based on about twenty one thousand people spending three hundred 20 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: dollars and more on childcare, and the number we don't 21 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: know the number of people are spending three hundred dollars 22 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: in more, but it's clearly much lower than twenty one thousand. 23 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: Okay. But then on top of that, the CTU also 24 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: then estimates that it's something like fewer than fifty families 25 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: who get the full tax package. 26 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 2: The whole lot, the whole, the. 27 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: Whole thing seems to have have been vastly overestimated. 28 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 2: Yes, yes it does. Now, Now the detail of this 29 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 2: is sort of complicated. So to get that two fifty 30 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 2: a fortnight, you'd need to get the full family boost, 31 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: so that's seventy five dollars a week from your childcare, 32 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 2: and then you'd need to get the income tax cut 33 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: and then another tax credit that National was offering at 34 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: the election. And if you're a couple, you have to 35 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: be a couple to get that two fifty, So both 36 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 2: both partners and the couple would need to be getting everything, okay, 37 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 2: And so the CTU has basically said, if two hundred 38 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: and fifty people are getting the full seventy five dollars 39 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: a week from the family tax credit, then of those 40 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 2: two fifty, a tiny number of people will also be 41 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: getting all the other tax cuts in order to hit 42 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: that two hundred and fifty dollars a fortnight care, but 43 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 2: probably a very they are probably right. It's probably a 44 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: very very small number of people who are getting the 45 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: two fifty. 46 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, So what happens with the extra money that 47 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: we're not spending on this? 48 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,239 Speaker 2: Then, well that is a very good question. It's a 49 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 2: question we've actually put to Nicola Willis. So the money's 50 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: the money is left in the piggy bank at the moment, 51 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 2: and she's got a very difficult political decision to make, 52 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 2: which is do you do you change the settings at 53 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 2: the budget to make sure that people get something a 54 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: bit closer to what they have promised, or do you 55 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 2: bank it to reduce the enormous debt that we've got. 56 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: You know, both of them are both of them are 57 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 2: good options and bad options equally. Really, I don't know, 58 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: I don't know which one I'd be going with. 59 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: Fair point, so entirely predictably. Daddy is not going to 60 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: tell Winnie off as e yes, yes it is. 61 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 2: It is entirely predictable. Look the line from them, the 62 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 2: line from Christopher Luxen on Winston Peter's a Little Scrap 63 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 2: with R and Z yesterday is is that Winston I'll 64 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 2: quote it here. It's not words I would words that 65 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,839 Speaker 2: I wouldn't use. But frankly, I think Winston Peter's, after 66 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: forty years in public service, has a mode of communication 67 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 2: that as well understood. And you know, look, there's a 68 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 2: lot of truth to that, but but certainly he does. 69 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: Winston Peters does seem to have flown in the face 70 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 2: of some of that rn Z editorial editorial statutory protection. 71 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 2: And it is very interesting that the Prime Minister doesn't 72 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: back himself to at least tell him off a little bit, 73 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 2: at least sort of pull him into line. Obviously, this 74 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 2: isn't a second offense. This isn't you know, this isn't 75 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 2: a very incredibly why. 76 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: Would he tell him off? Like what what? Why would 77 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: he tell him off? First of all, if he tells 78 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: him off, he's just gonna he's just going to get 79 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: the backup of his coalition partner. And you don't need 80 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: to give Winston any reason to misbaht. It was justinder 81 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: has recently found out there's nothing in that. Plus there's 82 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: a whole but no, no, no, I can't imagine there's a 83 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: huge number of national voters we're gonna be like, yeah, cool, 84 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: we really wanted you to defend arin Z. 85 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: No, you're quite right, there is no there is no 86 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: political or any or any merit, and and and pulling 87 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 2: Winston Peters into line. The government's got eighteen months pull 88 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 2: the next election roughly, and and Winston Peter's already already 89 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 2: has plea you have incentive to act up, and you 90 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 2: don't want to give him any further incentive. 91 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: Hey, do we care about China being upset about the 92 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: visit to Taiwan? 93 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 2: A not particularly China always get that these trips happen 94 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 2: all the time. China against their back, their backup about 95 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 2: them regularly. This is Yeah, it's standard practice. I think 96 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 2: as Stuart Smith, who was on the trip, I think 97 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 2: he said that they sort of expected it. 98 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: Oh hey, by the way, on that rn Z thing, 99 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: did you notice that when the Luxeon did not dissuade 100 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: us of the idea that ron Z may have its 101 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: funding cut? 102 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: Yes, I did notice that. I would say that I'd 103 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 2: put money on that happening in the budget. Could be wrong, 104 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: but I've heard some whispers around the Bee Hive that 105 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 2: seduced that they might be looking to take some of 106 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 2: the funding away from our insid of the budget anyway. 107 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, it sounds increasingly like that's the case. Hey, Thomas, 108 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: Thanks has always appreciated Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor. 109 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 110 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:53,559 Speaker 2: news talks. 111 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 112 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.