1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,679 Speaker 1: Shane Sally Harbor Asset Management is with us. Hello, Shane 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: Ill read. So the US non farm payrolls data was 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: a bit weak on Friday. Had the markets react? 4 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, it doesn't sound very exciting, but it's quite 5 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 2: a meaningful with this. The US non fun payrolls, well, 6 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: they're just twenty two thousand job ads in August, means 7 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: the US jobless rates up to four point three percent. 8 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 2: It's another sign that the US Federal Reserve needs to 9 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 2: get on with rate cuts. Now, how did the markets react? Us? 10 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 2: Make pretty flat down a little bit down point three, 11 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: But the big move there was in bond yields. These 12 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: long term government bond yards fell, and that's telling us 13 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: that the market starting to expect rate cuts and think 14 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,279 Speaker 2: in fact, we're seeing up to three rate cuts from 15 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: the U Central Bank price and we're extually sill two 16 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 2: year agavement bonds fall to three point five to two percent, 17 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: which is the lowescence twenty twenty two. Locally here today 18 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: we've seen our two year bond years down as well. 19 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: We're down to two ninety six, so below three percent, 20 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 2: and the New Zealand shimak wears up almost four zero 21 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 2: point four percent yet we've been great if it was 22 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: four percent, to tell you. 23 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, more like a tenth of it. Hey, what about 24 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: the Chinese economic data that also wasn't that that flash? 25 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, we will continue to see some soft data 26 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 2: coming out of China. That August export and import data, 27 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: they were below expectations, just showing us that this Chinese 28 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: manufacturing machine is slowing down what we are seeing. On 29 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: the other hand, here there is Chinese regulators talking about 30 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: simulating economy. There's some reports about policies to support consumption 31 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: in the form of tourism, culture, lifestyle. There's some opening 32 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: up of the taps and residential property market. Sin's in 33 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: that's the third largest city in China, approximately seventy and 34 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 2: a half million people are They're going to remove home 35 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 2: purchase restrictions, so meaning people without local household registration you 36 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: can buy a house. Quite a meaningful change. We've seen 37 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: in Shanghai, for example, where we've seen similar changes. The 38 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: house prices have actually increased sort of seven to eight 39 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: percent month on month, So that's quite an important signal 40 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 2: we're trying to really get that Chinese economy going. And 41 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: then a final point, mister G. President G is comm 42 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: out announcing that China will drive trade and investment liberalization. 43 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: So he's of a pushback maybe to some of these 44 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 2: global tariff barriers that are coming through. 45 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: What about the stuff that's been happening here locally. 46 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, Today we saw a couple of interesting corporate announcements. 47 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 2: Tourism Holdings announced that's the recreational van higher company. When 48 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 2: you're doing a trip around South Onland, you're renting one 49 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 2: of their great vans. They have made the hard call 50 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 2: and they're going to reset their Australian retail business. They're 51 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: going to basically change the models to using the type 52 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 2: of vans conciding the brand, and they're going to reduce 53 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 2: the inventary levels. Also, they're going to close some branches 54 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: in Sydney and Brisbane, some of their sales branches, not 55 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 2: their rental branches, the places with their cell vans. Share 56 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: prices up slight the other day and we saw Investor, 57 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,959 Speaker 2: which is a property company mainly with retail real estate 58 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 2: by the Silverdale retailers, from its current Strive property one 59 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 2: hundred and forteen million dollars and they're always going to 60 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: raise sixty two and a half million via subordinated convened. 61 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 2: It's pretty flat on both those stocks on the day, 62 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 2: so yeah, we're seeing a little bit of activity coming 63 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 2: up in the market here. 64 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: Good stuff, hey Shane, thanks as always appreciate it, Shane 65 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: Soally Harborresset Management. 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