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Speaker 1: The final days of the US campaign to twenty twenty four. No,

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Speaker 1: and sensibly, irreccurately can call it. Of course, the universal

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Speaker 1: acceptances is going to be close. The contrast, depending on

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Speaker 1: the result though for this country, could be huge ins

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Speaker 1: The US Council chairman Jonathan Mason's with this. Jonathan, very

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Speaker 1: good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, MinC.

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Speaker 1: Have you enjoyed the campaign.

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Speaker 2: It's much longer than the New Zealand campaign. If you

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Speaker 2: asked me to pick, I picked a New Zealand model

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Speaker 2: over the US model. It's the sixt week model over

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Speaker 2: the two year model.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I had a number earlier on. There's a

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Speaker 1: billion dollars was spent last week in advertising in America

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Speaker 1: and all the races. A billion dollars just advertising. It's gargantuan,

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Speaker 1: isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, And I mean I spent just spent the month

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Speaker 2: of October in the US and in Michigan, in battleground states.

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Speaker 2: Just think of the ads are eighty percent focused on

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Speaker 2: the election, well, not like products, so they dominate advertisements.

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Speaker 1: In a swing site of people engaged.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean there's there would be heavy engagement by

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Speaker 2: people in politics who love politics on both the right

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Speaker 2: wing and the left wing, but there would be a

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Speaker 2: significant portion they fifty sixty percent of Americans or just

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Speaker 2: having their daily lives rather than like focused on politics

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Speaker 2: and reading the each story every day. So really interesting.

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Speaker 1: So, I mean, is this going to be a record

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Speaker 1: turnout given what we would perceive to be unfolding or

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Speaker 1: it'll just be the same old time all those who voting,

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Speaker 1: those who don't don't.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's going to be a big turnout.

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Speaker 2: It's partly it'll depend on the wather on Tuesday in

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Speaker 2: the US Wednesday in New Zealand. But I'm guessing pretty

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Speaker 2: high turnout like it was sort of eight years ago.

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Speaker 1: To yeah, do can we say Harris is a continuation

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Speaker 1: to Biden from our point of view in terms of

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Speaker 1: trade and access to America?

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Speaker 2: Harris hasn't made many pronouncements on trade, so it's likely

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Speaker 2: it's a continuation, but we'll have to watch the space

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Speaker 2: to see how it develops. Trump and our fear, there's

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Speaker 2: the only business fear would be even with Harris, US

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Speaker 2: will gradually go a bit more protectionist, just because Harris

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Speaker 2: will start to be if she were the president, will

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Speaker 2: start to be interested in getting re elected in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty eight, and the battleground states with the rest belt

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Speaker 2: sensitivity will be important to her.

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Speaker 1: Also protectionist against China or are we just collateral damage

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Speaker 1: and we'll just be protectionist with everybody and we pay

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Speaker 1: the price of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So if Trump, yeah, it's protection against China, but

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Speaker 2: it's also generally being seen to protect US jobs. So

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Speaker 2: you know, those battleground states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio

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Speaker 2: got ravaged both by automation and the NAFTA trade deal

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Speaker 2: and the China trade deal, and it gave benefits to

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Speaker 2: the broader US economy, but those benefits are less visible

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Speaker 2: than the job losses in the battleground states. If that

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Speaker 2: makes sense, Yes, it does.

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Speaker 1: A problem with Trump is one with you believe and

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Speaker 1: when he says I'm going to slap two hundred percent

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Speaker 1: on John d or if they moved to Mexico, whether

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Speaker 1: that's actually true or not, and whether or not any

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Speaker 1: of it comes to pass and effect us. But what

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Speaker 1: I do know is that Americans are buying a lot

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Speaker 1: of our stuff these days, from meat to wine, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Do we get badly affected if Trump slaps the tariffsone.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So first, just to just to note your point

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Speaker 2: being right, is that in the last ten years trade

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Speaker 2: New Zealand US trade has grown at approximately twice our

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Speaker 2: GDP rate of growth, so like close to eight percent.

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Speaker 2: So we've had a very profitable and mutually beneficial relationship

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Speaker 2: with US. The fear with Trump is he's talking ten

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Speaker 2: to twenty percent tariffs and that is about one and

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Speaker 2: a half one to two billion dollars on New Zealand

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Speaker 2: goods exports, and that would double if services are included.

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Speaker 2: So you know, a a targeted hit on the New

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Speaker 2: Zealand economy is possible.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna have to wait and see on Wednesday

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Speaker 1: and see what happens. Well, if it is Wednesday, of course,

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Mice, I appreciate your time, my New Zealand US councilship.

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Speaker 1: And the point also that's that Trump is inflationary may

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Speaker 1: or may not be true because what happens with terras.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you're aware when you slap it on, you

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Speaker 1: pay more at the retail end of the market. So

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Speaker 1: whoever brings in a piece of beef from New Zealand

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Speaker 1: has to charge a higher price. That's the whole point

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Speaker 1: of tariff's The question is do the consumers pay that price,

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Speaker 1: and therefore, if they do that then is inflationary. The

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Speaker 1: counter to that, and I'm sure he would argue it

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Speaker 1: is that the American domestic market is so large in

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Speaker 1: terms of production that whatever really they bring into America

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Speaker 1: can be reproduced locally anyway. And therefore it may well

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Speaker 1: be that, and this is his thinking, it may well

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Speaker 1: be that local production booms because of it. So you

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Speaker 1: can't afford a piece of steak from New Zealand, we'll

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Speaker 1: get a bit of local. No, it's not as good,

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Speaker 1: but it's cheaper and we'll buy it. And that's how

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Speaker 1: patterns develop. So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

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