WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #289 - June 18th 2025 - George Friedman 0:00:09.093 --> 0:00:11.973 You're listening to a podcast from news talks it B. 0:00:12.373 --> 0:00:16.173 Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.693 --> 0:00:19.733 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.773 --> 0:00:24.813 the information, all the debates of the now, the Leyton 0:00:24.933 --> 0:00:27.653 Smith podcast powered by news talks it B. 0:00:28.133 --> 0:00:31.093 Welcome to podcasts two eighty nine for June eighteen, twenty 0:00:31.173 --> 0:00:36.293 twenty five. Now. Having interviewed George Friedman from Geopolitical Futures 0:00:36.413 --> 0:00:39.653 in the not too distant past, I had no idea 0:00:39.653 --> 0:00:43.333 that he would return quite so quickly, but considering what's 0:00:43.373 --> 0:00:45.693 going on on the planet at the moment and his 0:00:45.853 --> 0:00:51.173 knowledge of same, there really was no choice. When George 0:00:51.173 --> 0:00:55.253 speaks on something as serious as this, I'm always interested 0:00:55.333 --> 0:00:59.493 in his opinion. Doesn't mean I accept everything that he says. 0:00:59.973 --> 0:01:02.573 There's very few people that fall into that category, if any. 0:01:03.093 --> 0:01:08.813 But nevertheless, his worthiness has made itself of us over 0:01:08.853 --> 0:01:12.773 a lengthy period of time. I've been talking with him 0:01:12.773 --> 0:01:15.853 for now a good thirty years, possibly more. But before 0:01:15.853 --> 0:01:17.453 we get to George, there are a couple of other 0:01:18.133 --> 0:01:21.693 issues that I want to touch on as briefly as 0:01:21.693 --> 0:01:24.853 I can, but I feel an urge to do so, 0:01:24.853 --> 0:01:27.053 So let's begin with the fact that I did something 0:01:27.133 --> 0:01:29.133 last night that is not the norm at our household, 0:01:29.213 --> 0:01:31.733 turn the news on at the television news at six 0:01:31.813 --> 0:01:38.373 pm to witness the fire that has taken to New 0:01:38.413 --> 0:01:42.533 World at Victoria Park, in my opinion, the best supermarket 0:01:42.573 --> 0:01:45.973 in the country bar none, and it's left us a 0:01:45.973 --> 0:01:49.053 bit bit rif because well, now where do we go 0:01:49.093 --> 0:01:51.053 when we want to get some of those things that 0:01:51.133 --> 0:01:55.133 you can't get in every supermarket? Never mind that will 0:01:55.173 --> 0:02:00.213 resolve itself. That led to seeing a politician or two 0:02:00.453 --> 0:02:05.253 who currently a ministers who I don't have a great 0:02:05.253 --> 0:02:08.053 deal of time for for the simple reason that they 0:02:08.093 --> 0:02:12.253 are closed minded and ignorant. And what I'm referring to 0:02:12.413 --> 0:02:16.493 is matters concerning climate change that's zero for instance in 0:02:16.533 --> 0:02:20.013 the Paris Accord. We should be dumping both of those 0:02:20.053 --> 0:02:22.693 in this country. They cost us a fortune, which is 0:02:22.813 --> 0:02:25.893 just nuts when you think about the state that the 0:02:26.053 --> 0:02:29.893 economy is in. They cost a fortune. They are wrong 0:02:30.013 --> 0:02:32.093 in the first place, and the rest of the world 0:02:32.133 --> 0:02:34.973 is going ahead and we are getting left behind us 0:02:35.453 --> 0:02:37.813 and Australia, and I have to say on this occasion, 0:02:37.853 --> 0:02:39.933 I think Australia is worse off than we are, but 0:02:39.973 --> 0:02:43.453 that doesn't mean that our situation isn't bad enough. We 0:02:43.773 --> 0:02:47.573 update you on a couple of things. California politics is 0:02:47.693 --> 0:02:51.093 synonymous with many things, but failed energy policy might be 0:02:51.093 --> 0:02:56.253 the most relevant. The Ivan par solar power plant Solar 0:02:56.693 --> 0:02:59.813 is on its way to being shut down just eleven 0:02:59.893 --> 0:03:03.893 years after it opened. PG and E be the electric 0:03:03.933 --> 0:03:07.253 company pulled out of its contract with the plant, leading 0:03:07.293 --> 0:03:11.373 to a planned of two of its three units by 0:03:11.413 --> 0:03:15.413 next year, while Southern California Edison is also working on 0:03:15.493 --> 0:03:18.573 buying out its contract now. The plant costs two point 0:03:18.573 --> 0:03:22.333 two billion US dollars to build, and the Department of 0:03:22.493 --> 0:03:26.613 Energy said taxpayers will receive a refund of an undisclosed 0:03:26.613 --> 0:03:29.653 amount for the one point six billion in department loans. 0:03:30.093 --> 0:03:33.613 The contracts were supposed to take the plant through to 0:03:33.813 --> 0:03:38.093 at least twenty thirty nine. In all, the energy from 0:03:38.133 --> 0:03:42.453 the plant costs too much money. It produced around seventy 0:03:42.453 --> 0:03:47.373 percent of what was projected to produce annually. The sea 0:03:47.413 --> 0:03:50.213 of mirrors that the plant relied on to produce the 0:03:50.453 --> 0:03:54.013 energy led to the plant catching on fire in twenty 0:03:54.293 --> 0:03:59.533 sixteen after mirrors were wrongly positioned in relation to the sun. 0:04:00.413 --> 0:04:03.613 The plants struggled with energy production due to weather, clouds 0:04:03.653 --> 0:04:06.493 and jet streams, and was also pretty bad for the 0:04:06.613 --> 0:04:11.453 environment what with the whole burning birds to death thing. 0:04:12.733 --> 0:04:15.733 The plant also used natural gas to keep itself running 0:04:15.813 --> 0:04:21.133 around six times the limit allowed by the California Energy Commission. Now, 0:04:21.133 --> 0:04:23.813 what is most shocking is the scope and scale of 0:04:23.853 --> 0:04:29.693 this project compared to the IKI nuclear energy California has 0:04:29.773 --> 0:04:33.213 tried to rid itself of over the same period. In 0:04:33.253 --> 0:04:36.973 twenty twenty, IVANPA produced eight hundred and fifty six gigawad 0:04:36.973 --> 0:04:41.933 hours of energy. This represented a substantial increase in efficiency 0:04:41.973 --> 0:04:45.253 and output in ninety one percent of the plant's production goals. 0:04:45.613 --> 0:04:48.853 The plant takes up three and a half thousand acres 0:04:48.853 --> 0:04:53.133 of land. That's one big farm, whatever it is. Meanwhile, 0:04:53.253 --> 0:04:58.173 the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant is the last nuclear plants 0:04:58.213 --> 0:05:01.653 in California. It takes up around seven hundred and fifty 0:05:01.693 --> 0:05:06.053 acres and produces over seventeen thousand, seven hundred gigawad hours 0:05:06.053 --> 0:05:10.013 of energy. That is around tw times more than ivanpaer 0:05:10.253 --> 0:05:13.813 and accounted for over eight percent of California's in state 0:05:13.933 --> 0:05:18.453 energy production in twenty twenty three. The comparisons are just obscene, 0:05:18.493 --> 0:05:22.053 aren't they now? There is a second part to this 0:05:22.333 --> 0:05:24.773 climate matter, because a couple of weeks back, I was 0:05:25.133 --> 0:05:31.373 attempting to address some water level issues around the Solomon 0:05:31.413 --> 0:05:36.293 Islands for an inquiry from one of our listeners, so 0:05:36.453 --> 0:05:42.653 I referred to a man named Matthew Wilicky wie Licki 0:05:44.293 --> 0:05:50.333 and the heading is the CEA level lie exposed. For years, 0:05:50.373 --> 0:05:54.093 climate narratives have relentlessly painted a dire picture. The ice 0:05:54.133 --> 0:05:57.333 caps are melting, oceans arising, and humanity is teetering on 0:05:57.413 --> 0:06:02.733 the edge of catastrophic flooding. You've heard it repeatedly from politicians, activists, 0:06:02.853 --> 0:06:06.853 media outlets, eager to dramatize each incremental rise in global 0:06:06.893 --> 0:06:12.453 temperatures as an unprecedented disaster. But what if the fundamental 0:06:12.493 --> 0:06:17.453 assumptions driving these alarming predictions were deeply flawed Over the 0:06:17.533 --> 0:06:20.573 last year I've exposed, says the author, a pattern of 0:06:20.813 --> 0:06:24.493 contradictions between what we're told about sea level rise and 0:06:24.533 --> 0:06:30.293 what the data actually shows, contradictions that now culminate in 0:06:30.373 --> 0:06:34.613 a far deeper crisis of scientific understanding. In fact, it's 0:06:34.733 --> 0:06:38.453 this body of work that has led coastal policy makers, 0:06:38.853 --> 0:06:43.093 those tasked with real world decisions about infrastructure zoning and 0:06:43.173 --> 0:06:47.813 emergency response to reach out to me privately to understand 0:06:47.853 --> 0:06:52.973 what is really happening. They're rightly skeptical when headlines scream 0:06:53.173 --> 0:06:56.733 about surging seas, yet local tide gages tell a much 0:06:56.773 --> 0:07:01.933 different story. Take, for example, my piece where I dismantled 0:07:01.973 --> 0:07:04.693 absurd claims like those made in the New York Post 0:07:05.213 --> 0:07:08.573 suggesting that New York City sea levels might surge might 0:07:08.653 --> 0:07:13.533 surge thirteen inches by the twenty thirties. Those projections were 0:07:13.573 --> 0:07:19.933 based on implausible, worst case scenarios and ignored critical facts. Much, 0:07:20.213 --> 0:07:22.973 if not most, of New York's relative sea level rise 0:07:23.093 --> 0:07:27.333 is due to land subsidence. In fact, current sea levels 0:07:27.373 --> 0:07:30.413 measured at the Battery tide gauge in New York are 0:07:30.533 --> 0:07:34.133 roughly equivalent to levels first observed in the early nineteen forties, 0:07:34.613 --> 0:07:37.493 meaning nearly a century of catastrophic sea level rise has 0:07:37.533 --> 0:07:41.293 simply brought us back to where we were already. In 0:07:41.333 --> 0:07:45.453 another article, I examined the Holocene thermal maximum, a period 0:07:45.453 --> 0:07:49.133 when Greenland was four to was four to eight point 0:07:49.173 --> 0:07:54.533 five degrees centigrade warmer than today. Astonishingly, despite this warmth, 0:07:54.653 --> 0:07:59.973 global sea levels were lower than today. How is this possible? 0:07:59.973 --> 0:08:03.533 If the models predict catastrophic sea level rise are correct, 0:08:03.853 --> 0:08:09.173 if Greenland's ice levels survived such warming without deluging the coasts, 0:08:09.773 --> 0:08:12.813 how do we reconcile this with claims that current modest 0:08:12.853 --> 0:08:17.533 warming will do so. Then there's the adjusting reality, where 0:08:17.533 --> 0:08:20.813 I explored the peculiar pattern in satellite sea level measurements. 0:08:20.933 --> 0:08:24.213 Each time a new satellites launched, the sea level trend 0:08:24.253 --> 0:08:29.213 is adjusted upward, not downward, never flat, always up. A 0:08:29.333 --> 0:08:35.333 skeptic might wonder whether these corrections reflect science or storytelling. 0:08:36.693 --> 0:08:41.133 In how a simple math eraror derailed doomsday sea level forecasts, 0:08:41.773 --> 0:08:46.253 I discussed recent research showing that foundational equations used in 0:08:46.373 --> 0:08:51.653 ice flower models might be significantly flawed. A mischaracterization of 0:08:51.693 --> 0:08:55.773 how temperate glacier ice flows could mean that projections of 0:08:55.853 --> 0:08:59.773 future sea level rise have been overstated when plugged into 0:08:59.813 --> 0:09:03.573 the When plugged into the same models the IPC SEA users, 0:09:04.333 --> 0:09:09.693 the corrected equations yield far less ominous results. And finally, 0:09:10.333 --> 0:09:13.853 a piece that presented satellite evidence that many coastlines around 0:09:13.853 --> 0:09:18.813 the world are actually growing, yes growing, despite rising seas. 0:09:19.453 --> 0:09:25.933 Land accretion driven by natural processes like sediment deposition, is 0:09:25.973 --> 0:09:31.133 outpacing erosion in many regions. Now, three recent papers may 0:09:31.173 --> 0:09:35.493 deliver the most decisive blow yet to the climate establishment's 0:09:35.533 --> 0:09:41.653 sea level narrative. Goes on to list them. If you 0:09:41.693 --> 0:09:45.933 want to find it, I suggest you search the sea 0:09:46.013 --> 0:09:51.693 level lie exposed by Matthew waylicky W I E l 0:09:51.773 --> 0:09:55.253 I C K I, and you'll find it. And you'll 0:09:55.293 --> 0:09:58.573 also like to find it if you search irrational Fear 0:09:59.213 --> 0:10:04.653 dot substack dot com. Now, having got that out of 0:10:04.653 --> 0:10:08.613 the way and with some personal pleasure, we will join 0:10:08.853 --> 0:10:18.253 George Friedman after a short break. Buccolan is a natural 0:10:18.453 --> 0:10:22.413 oral vaccine in a tablet form called bacterial nicate. It'll 0:10:22.453 --> 0:10:26.013 boost your natural protection against bacterial infections in your chest 0:10:26.093 --> 0:10:29.333 and throat. A three day course of seven Buckland tablets 0:10:29.333 --> 0:10:31.573 will help your body build up to three months of 0:10:31.653 --> 0:10:36.413 immunity against bugs which cause bacterial cold symptoms. So who 0:10:36.453 --> 0:10:39.293 can take buccolan well the whole family From two years 0:10:39.293 --> 0:10:42.493 of age and upwards. A course of Buckelan tablets offers 0:10:42.533 --> 0:10:46.213 cost effective and safe protection from colds and chills. Protection 0:10:46.333 --> 0:10:49.813 becomes effective a few days after you take buccolan and 0:10:49.933 --> 0:10:52.733 lasts for up to three months following the three day course. 0:10:53.253 --> 0:10:56.013 Buccolan can be taken throughout the cold season, over winter, 0:10:56.333 --> 0:10:58.933 or all the year round. And remember Buckelan is not 0:10:58.973 --> 0:11:02.893 intended as an alternative to influenza vaccination, but may be 0:11:03.013 --> 0:11:06.773 used along with the flu vaccination for added protection. And 0:11:06.853 --> 0:11:09.493 keep in mind that millions of doses have been taken 0:11:09.533 --> 0:11:13.533 by Kiwi's for over fifty years. Only available from your pharmacist. 0:11:13.813 --> 0:11:17.133 Always read the label and users directed, and see your 0:11:17.173 --> 0:11:33.853 doctor if systems persist. Farmer Broker Auckland Leighton Smith George 0:11:33.893 --> 0:11:38.733 Friedman has a long history with regard to geopolitics. He 0:11:38.933 --> 0:11:41.933 was a well he has a PhD. And he was 0:11:41.973 --> 0:11:45.373 a professor at the War College in Pennsylvania for a 0:11:45.493 --> 0:11:48.373 number of years, and then he went private and has 0:11:48.493 --> 0:11:52.413 since established two companies. The most recent, of course, and 0:11:52.453 --> 0:11:56.533 the most stable, is Geopolitical Futures. It's intrigued me that 0:11:56.893 --> 0:12:00.253 over the years he has declined to make use of 0:12:00.333 --> 0:12:04.613 both his doctorate, as in doctor George Friedman or the professorship. 0:12:04.733 --> 0:12:08.533 I used to call him professor doctor George Friedman, but 0:12:08.613 --> 0:12:11.533 he didn't like it, so I dropped it, and I'm 0:12:11.573 --> 0:12:14.093 just filling in his blank slate for you at the moment. 0:12:14.653 --> 0:12:17.013 So George. Great to have you back on the podcast, 0:12:17.013 --> 0:12:18.893 and I do appreciate it because I know how busy 0:12:18.973 --> 0:12:21.093 you are working on a new book. 0:12:21.613 --> 0:12:23.853 Well, I'm very glad to be here and not working 0:12:23.853 --> 0:12:25.373 on the book. Now, do it something. 0:12:25.213 --> 0:12:29.733 Else that's nice? Well, let me revert then to the 0:12:29.773 --> 0:12:34.813 present book, the one that was released back in twenty twenty. 0:12:35.013 --> 0:12:38.453 The release of the book that I want to discuss 0:12:38.493 --> 0:12:40.853 with you briefly, the Storm before the Calm, was on 0:12:40.933 --> 0:12:44.933 the same day that COVID broken America and the media 0:12:45.013 --> 0:12:48.533 went mad. You lost all your appointments and television interviews, etc. 0:12:49.213 --> 0:12:52.253 Which disturbed the sale of the book. But we have 0:12:52.333 --> 0:12:56.333 discussed before it is still selling, and not in huge numbers, 0:12:56.333 --> 0:12:58.933 but steadily and more and more people I know are 0:12:58.973 --> 0:13:02.453 becoming attached to it because of what you put in 0:13:02.573 --> 0:13:06.613 that book with regard to what's happening. Now, why don't 0:13:06.613 --> 0:13:10.093 we start with a brief from you on what the 0:13:10.133 --> 0:13:13.013 book was about and how it fits in with what 0:13:13.253 --> 0:13:16.493 the current events in the US and the world die. 0:13:16.973 --> 0:13:20.613 The book's called Storm for the comm and what I 0:13:20.773 --> 0:13:24.813 found is a pattern in the United States that every 0:13:24.853 --> 0:13:27.373 fifty years or so, the United States goes through a 0:13:27.413 --> 0:13:31.453 social and economic crisis. I also found that every eighty 0:13:31.533 --> 0:13:37.333 years it reinventsd government institutions through an institutional crisis. But 0:13:37.453 --> 0:13:40.293 I saw that this time, for the first time in 0:13:40.493 --> 0:13:43.613 American history, I noticed that for this time, both the 0:13:43.653 --> 0:13:50.213 institutional cycle and this geopolitical cycle and the socio economic 0:13:50.253 --> 0:13:53.733 cycle are going to be taking place at the same time. 0:13:53.893 --> 0:13:57.013 So I said that the twenty twenty four election is 0:13:57.053 --> 0:14:00.013 going to open the storm before the calm, which is 0:14:00.173 --> 0:14:03.413 we always have a massive crisis for. 0:14:03.253 --> 0:14:05.173 It, major unrest. 0:14:05.453 --> 0:14:08.973 Then twenty twenty eight next president takes it into a 0:14:09.013 --> 0:14:11.813 commer place. And so now we're in the middle of 0:14:11.853 --> 0:14:16.093 the storm that was predictable by the history of America, 0:14:17.053 --> 0:14:19.093 and we're trying to find our way through it. 0:14:19.813 --> 0:14:21.933 I'm intrigued and have been ever since the book was 0:14:21.973 --> 0:14:25.613 released on how you came to the conclusion and what 0:14:25.893 --> 0:14:28.773 causes these cycles to follow the pattern. 0:14:29.333 --> 0:14:32.493 Well, it's very hard to explain that because I'm not 0:14:32.533 --> 0:14:36.213 really sure. But one fundamental thing I know about is 0:14:36.773 --> 0:14:40.333 that we reinvent the country periodically. 0:14:41.053 --> 0:14:44.413 The United States, it was an invented country. It did 0:14:44.413 --> 0:14:44.973 not exist. 0:14:45.373 --> 0:14:50.373 It was the first major democratic republic created, and it 0:14:50.493 --> 0:14:54.253 crafted itself. It engineered itself into existence through the constitution 0:14:54.373 --> 0:14:58.093 of other things. And it's a country that's used to obsolescence. 0:14:59.013 --> 0:15:01.893 It doesn't take the norm as the way it should be. 0:15:02.613 --> 0:15:06.293 We start ourselves by breaking the norm. So every fifty 0:15:06.373 --> 0:15:10.173 years or so, the way this social economic system works, 0:15:10.493 --> 0:15:13.693 it gets obsolete. It has to be changed. Now there's 0:15:13.733 --> 0:15:18.893 the factions where the norm is passed and that must continue, 0:15:19.613 --> 0:15:24.933 faction that demands it to restructure itself. So both in 0:15:25.053 --> 0:15:29.453 terms of social and economic life, in terms of institutional life, 0:15:29.973 --> 0:15:34.693 we continually reinvent ourselves. Unlike other countries that allow their 0:15:34.733 --> 0:15:40.573 systems to go on slowly shifting, we do radical upsurges. 0:15:41.173 --> 0:15:43.693 And when that happens, it looks like we're going to pieces. 0:15:44.573 --> 0:15:46.853 And we are in the middle of the storm right now. 0:15:47.293 --> 0:15:50.453 We elected a president and created a storm, and if 0:15:50.533 --> 0:15:52.613 history is correct, a few years will come out of 0:15:52.613 --> 0:15:54.573 it in a very different way than we were. 0:15:55.093 --> 0:15:58.573 So I quote from Trump's place in US political cycles, 0:15:58.693 --> 0:16:04.453 the normal pattern in US political history is that ineffective 0:16:04.533 --> 0:16:07.573 presidents are elected at the end of a fifty year cycle, 0:16:08.333 --> 0:16:12.133 so that their presidencies exist in social and economic chaos. 0:16:12.573 --> 0:16:15.213 These presidents, usually through no fold of their own, lose 0:16:15.253 --> 0:16:17.893 the ability to govern, and in the following election, a 0:16:17.893 --> 0:16:21.373 president who can change where we are and set the 0:16:21.413 --> 0:16:24.333 country in a new direction is elected. 0:16:24.893 --> 0:16:29.053 And what happened was Biden was the one who presided 0:16:29.093 --> 0:16:34.693 over a disintegrating structure. It didn't disintegrate it, it was disintegrating. 0:16:35.453 --> 0:16:40.133 Trump comes in and radically changes everything, just like Roosevelt 0:16:40.133 --> 0:16:44.533 did and others before him radically changes, and then the 0:16:44.533 --> 0:16:48.693 one after that takes us back into the calm. So 0:16:48.733 --> 0:16:52.853 the storm is the part where we restructure who we are, 0:16:53.213 --> 0:16:57.133 We change who we are, how we live, and then 0:16:57.613 --> 0:17:00.333 twenty twenty eight we'll say we'll come back to it 0:17:00.413 --> 0:17:05.093 with norm, a calmer norm. So it's not a normal, 0:17:05.653 --> 0:17:12.733 calm transition. It is an extensively painful, extensively stormy relationship 0:17:13.173 --> 0:17:17.893 between the state and many of the citizens were caught 0:17:18.133 --> 0:17:21.453 between the phases. But then it calms down for the 0:17:21.493 --> 0:17:25.133 next fifty years, and the same with the institutionals cycle. 0:17:25.773 --> 0:17:29.013 Every eighty years it shifts. We went from the Revolution 0:17:29.533 --> 0:17:32.173 we took it eighty years later, to the Civil War 0:17:33.413 --> 0:17:36.853 we took it later, to the Great Depression in eighty 0:17:36.893 --> 0:17:40.933 year cycles. It's eighty years. So our institutions are also 0:17:41.013 --> 0:17:44.413 being changed. The problem that Trump has he both has 0:17:44.453 --> 0:17:47.493 to change the social and economic relationship and he has 0:17:47.573 --> 0:17:51.733 to change the way the institutions work. So he is 0:17:51.893 --> 0:17:56.893 more reckless, it seems, than previous presidents because the task 0:17:56.933 --> 0:17:59.093 that he has, whether he knows it or not, I 0:17:59.133 --> 0:18:02.813 don't know, is to do the things he's doing. And 0:18:02.933 --> 0:18:06.853 any president who would be elected regardless, would do this 0:18:06.973 --> 0:18:09.853 at the same time. Whether it's whether it be the 0:18:09.853 --> 0:18:14.253 same style, obviously it'd be a different style. But it's 0:18:14.333 --> 0:18:18.133 very similar to what Franklin Roosevelt did. Franklin Roosevelt came 0:18:18.173 --> 0:18:21.693 into office as champion of the poor. In the first 0:18:21.773 --> 0:18:25.453 one hundred days, he shut down the banking system against law. 0:18:25.493 --> 0:18:29.453 By the way, thought Supreme Court was regarded as on 0:18:29.613 --> 0:18:33.453 his way to take charatorship, that he would dominate the country, 0:18:34.413 --> 0:18:39.573 issued ninety nine executive orders not confirmed by Congress. In 0:18:39.613 --> 0:18:43.213 other words, we've been through this before, and we went 0:18:43.253 --> 0:18:46.293 through eighty years ago, and this is the way we 0:18:46.493 --> 0:18:47.333 change ourselves. 0:18:47.653 --> 0:18:50.413 Okay, the part that well, I was going to say 0:18:50.453 --> 0:18:53.333 the part that intrigues me, but I can't say that 0:18:53.333 --> 0:18:55.773 because it's more than many more than one part. But 0:18:55.853 --> 0:18:59.493 let me quote from what I was just a few 0:18:59.493 --> 0:19:03.053 minutes ago. Trump's first impact will be in trying to 0:19:03.093 --> 0:19:07.453 redefine cultural norms. You'll also try to change tech schemes 0:19:07.493 --> 0:19:12.253 for corporation, and probably most important, he'll try to shift economic, political, 0:19:12.253 --> 0:19:15.813 and military relations with allies. He will impose newly defined 0:19:15.853 --> 0:19:20.453 economic rules for international trade, increased regard for US interests, 0:19:20.493 --> 0:19:25.253 and the reconsideration of foreign commitments with allies. How is 0:19:25.293 --> 0:19:27.493 he faring with that list? 0:19:28.093 --> 0:19:31.613 Well, he's doing all of them. Inside of the country. 0:19:32.253 --> 0:19:37.533 The culture wars between the left and the right are raging, 0:19:38.133 --> 0:19:43.253 and he's overthrowing the cultural system that it existed before 0:19:43.533 --> 0:19:47.533 or placing with something different. We're seeing him trying to 0:19:47.613 --> 0:19:50.813 shift relations with the rest of the world, to pull 0:19:50.853 --> 0:19:53.373 the United States back from responsibility for the rest of 0:19:53.373 --> 0:19:58.413 the world, have more orderly relationship, and of course dealing 0:19:58.413 --> 0:20:02.733 with economic problems, both domestically and especially in that process 0:20:03.253 --> 0:20:05.293 in natural relations. 0:20:05.853 --> 0:20:08.613 The list of thing that you put there, how did 0:20:08.653 --> 0:20:11.893 you arrive at that? Was it because you were aware 0:20:12.093 --> 0:20:16.333 of what he had in mind? Or you drew up 0:20:16.373 --> 0:20:20.013 that list separately and he's following it well. 0:20:20.413 --> 0:20:25.573 A theory about fifteen twenty years ago of these cycles, 0:20:26.453 --> 0:20:29.093 I took a look at previous cycles. The fifty year 0:20:29.213 --> 0:20:32.813 cycle blastphar was Ronald Reagan. He changed the tax code 0:20:33.613 --> 0:20:36.013 before that was Roosevelt, and so on and so forth. 0:20:36.933 --> 0:20:37.613 So there's a. 0:20:37.533 --> 0:20:40.493 Model for how we evolve. And it's not like any 0:20:40.533 --> 0:20:44.733 of the country's a bottle. It is not a revolutionary 0:20:44.773 --> 0:20:47.933 model in the sense that the government is overthrown, nor 0:20:48.053 --> 0:20:52.893 is it a passive slow evolution. It is a radical 0:20:52.933 --> 0:20:58.253 crisis within the framework of our governance. And it's inherent 0:20:58.293 --> 0:21:02.893 in American culture. American culture is built on obsolescence and 0:21:02.933 --> 0:21:07.773 replacing things. American culture is not based on revering the past, 0:21:08.693 --> 0:21:11.653 but in reforming and changing it. So it's part of 0:21:11.693 --> 0:21:18.093 our culture to throw things away, rebuild them discarded, to 0:21:18.533 --> 0:21:22.773 not be afraid of radical change in our personal lives 0:21:23.533 --> 0:21:27.373 or in our national life. So it is inherently part 0:21:27.373 --> 0:21:32.253 of the American culture, the reinvention of the nation, and 0:21:32.333 --> 0:21:35.533 we go through it regularly. And so I just looked 0:21:35.533 --> 0:21:38.533 at how it worked in previous times, and is it 0:21:38.613 --> 0:21:40.733 working out pretty much the same, except a little more 0:21:40.733 --> 0:21:43.053 intense because two cycles getting at the same time. 0:21:43.373 --> 0:21:47.253 Is there anybody else you can think of who's in 0:21:47.373 --> 0:21:50.453 play at the moment? Has been for the last say, 0:21:50.493 --> 0:21:55.413 ten years, who could have done this job apart from Trump? 0:21:56.373 --> 0:22:01.053 The answer is that Trump isn't doing a job. Trump 0:22:01.093 --> 0:22:03.813 is merely responding to what's reality. 0:22:03.573 --> 0:22:05.813 All right, So is there anybody else who would have 0:22:05.853 --> 0:22:10.813 responded in the way that he has and is and succeed. 0:22:11.533 --> 0:22:15.653 Anybody at this point would realize that the cultural wars 0:22:15.653 --> 0:22:19.853 are unsustainable, that our position for eighty years in the 0:22:19.853 --> 0:22:24.173 Cold War is not sustainable, and would want to change them. 0:22:24.333 --> 0:22:28.293 Now he has a personal style that's his own. But 0:22:28.453 --> 0:22:30.893 then Roosevelt had a person style his own. He was 0:22:30.933 --> 0:22:35.293 an incredibly rich man, incredibly rich who convinced everybody who 0:22:35.373 --> 0:22:37.733 was a friend of the poor. I doubt that he 0:22:37.813 --> 0:22:40.453 ever met a poor person who wasn't a servant, but. 0:22:40.453 --> 0:22:41.773 He convinced them. 0:22:41.973 --> 0:22:45.173 So when you're in this position as a president, you 0:22:45.293 --> 0:22:48.173 carve your personality to what's needed. 0:22:49.413 --> 0:22:50.373 You don't come in with it. 0:22:51.333 --> 0:22:54.013 Will you get selected because you have this personality a 0:22:54.133 --> 0:22:57.533 radical one, or you make yourself into what's needed. 0:22:57.933 --> 0:23:00.453 But it's not the person that's the hero. 0:23:01.053 --> 0:23:05.613 It's a system of governance that allows us radical change, 0:23:05.893 --> 0:23:09.653 and that consistently has done it ever since the eighteenth century. 0:23:10.653 --> 0:23:14.093 So whoever would be president of this time would face 0:23:14.133 --> 0:23:17.133 the same problems he did. They might be more polite 0:23:17.133 --> 0:23:20.413 in changing it, they might be less polite. I don't know, 0:23:21.173 --> 0:23:24.533 but I could. The model allowed me to predict in 0:23:24.653 --> 0:23:27.013 twenty twenty. In a previous book, I wrote The Next 0:23:27.133 --> 0:23:30.333 hundred Years, which was quite a while before then, that 0:23:30.453 --> 0:23:33.653 this was the time we would run into the storm 0:23:33.853 --> 0:23:35.773 that we would not go to be able to sustain 0:23:35.853 --> 0:23:42.453 the system. And the hero is the American constitution and 0:23:42.533 --> 0:23:48.813 American culture. And Roosevelt took advantage of that. Abraham Lincoln 0:23:48.853 --> 0:23:54.133 took advantage of that, and so does Donald Trump. It's 0:23:54.173 --> 0:23:58.373 not him that's doing it. He's facing a crisis that 0:23:58.453 --> 0:24:01.973 has to be solved and there's only a limited set 0:24:02.013 --> 0:24:06.413 of solutions, and he's doing it because he's compelled by 0:24:06.493 --> 0:24:10.053 reality to do it. Now he knows how to carve 0:24:10.173 --> 0:24:13.093 himself into something he wants to be because he made 0:24:13.133 --> 0:24:16.293 himself president. And to be president, you have to re 0:24:17.413 --> 0:24:23.173 arrange yourself, your personality, you're thinking to the moment. That's 0:24:23.173 --> 0:24:28.053 what a president does. He doesn't create the crisis. He 0:24:28.733 --> 0:24:32.093 tries to manage it. And so I would have argued 0:24:32.093 --> 0:24:35.693 that the same thing would have happened under virtue, anyone 0:24:35.693 --> 0:24:38.773 who's capable of being president. That is being done by 0:24:38.773 --> 0:24:42.613 Trump is fine. He'll be considered a hero and the 0:24:42.813 --> 0:24:46.453 history will go on. But it's not, if you will 0:24:47.173 --> 0:24:51.453 his personal achievement. He's kind of trapped in a reality. 0:24:52.133 --> 0:24:56.133 Although there are two relatively recent presidents who were not 0:24:56.213 --> 0:25:00.413 capable of doing it. The latter one, of course, we're 0:25:00.413 --> 0:25:02.813 well familiar with, and the one before that was well 0:25:02.893 --> 0:25:06.893 led to the Reagan election. So was it possible that 0:25:06.973 --> 0:25:10.533 somebody else could have been elected. It doesn't matter which 0:25:11.053 --> 0:25:13.773 particular party they belonged to, but could have been elected 0:25:14.333 --> 0:25:17.413 and have done the same job. I mean, Kamala Harris, 0:25:17.573 --> 0:25:19.213 could she have done this job. 0:25:20.813 --> 0:25:26.853 He's not doing the job. The job is happening. The crisis, 0:25:27.013 --> 0:25:31.293 the cultural crisis in the United States between two cultures, 0:25:31.973 --> 0:25:34.933 the culture of the left, if you want, the culture 0:25:34.933 --> 0:25:39.133 of the right was there, it was happening. The economic 0:25:39.213 --> 0:25:43.453 crisis was there, was happening. The obsolescence of the federal 0:25:43.493 --> 0:25:47.013 system was there and happening. The end of the Cold 0:25:47.013 --> 0:25:49.973 War was there and happening. So it's not that he 0:25:50.053 --> 0:25:54.893 made these things. He's just because he's a president. You 0:25:54.973 --> 0:25:57.293 have to be pretty smart to be president, and you 0:25:57.373 --> 0:25:59.973 have to be an illomaniac to be a president. The 0:26:00.013 --> 0:26:02.893 only difference between Trump and other presidents, she doesn't mind 0:26:02.893 --> 0:26:07.733 showing it is egomaniac. And in each time that this happens, 0:26:08.933 --> 0:26:13.053 the president is hated. The president who faces the problem 0:26:13.293 --> 0:26:18.213 and changes the norms is hated. Franklin Roosevelt was considered 0:26:18.213 --> 0:26:21.813 a man who wanted to be a dictator. Abraham Lincoln 0:26:21.893 --> 0:26:26.093 was a man who was an illiterate, incapable of understanding anything. 0:26:26.813 --> 0:26:31.213 So you don't take a country of three hundred million 0:26:31.293 --> 0:26:34.853 people and act as if a single man had the 0:26:34.933 --> 0:26:38.293 ability to change things ten years ago. That could not 0:26:38.373 --> 0:26:41.293 have been a change made. It was not ripe enough 0:26:41.293 --> 0:26:45.373