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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news talks it B.

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Speaker 1: Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all

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Speaker 1: the information, all the debates of the now, the Leyton

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Speaker 1: Smith podcast powered by news talks it B.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to podcasts two eighty nine for June eighteen, twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five. Now. Having interviewed George Friedman from Geopolitical Futures

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Speaker 2: in the not too distant past, I had no idea

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Speaker 2: that he would return quite so quickly, but considering what's

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Speaker 2: going on on the planet at the moment and his

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Speaker 2: knowledge of same, there really was no choice. When George

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Speaker 2: speaks on something as serious as this, I'm always interested

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Speaker 2: in his opinion. Doesn't mean I accept everything that he says.

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Speaker 2: There's very few people that fall into that category, if any.

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Speaker 2: But nevertheless, his worthiness has made itself of us over

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Speaker 2: a lengthy period of time. I've been talking with him

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Speaker 2: for now a good thirty years, possibly more. But before

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Speaker 2: we get to George, there are a couple of other

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Speaker 2: issues that I want to touch on as briefly as

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Speaker 2: I can, but I feel an urge to do so,

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Speaker 2: So let's begin with the fact that I did something

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Speaker 2: last night that is not the norm at our household,

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Speaker 2: turn the news on at the television news at six

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Speaker 2: pm to witness the fire that has taken to New

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Speaker 2: World at Victoria Park, in my opinion, the best supermarket

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Speaker 2: in the country bar none, and it's left us a

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Speaker 2: bit bit rif because well, now where do we go

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Speaker 2: when we want to get some of those things that

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Speaker 2: you can't get in every supermarket? Never mind that will

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Speaker 2: resolve itself. That led to seeing a politician or two

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Speaker 2: who currently a ministers who I don't have a great

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Speaker 2: deal of time for for the simple reason that they

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Speaker 2: are closed minded and ignorant. And what I'm referring to

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Speaker 2: is matters concerning climate change that's zero for instance in

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Speaker 2: the Paris Accord. We should be dumping both of those

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Speaker 2: in this country. They cost us a fortune, which is

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Speaker 2: just nuts when you think about the state that the

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Speaker 2: economy is in. They cost a fortune. They are wrong

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Speaker 2: in the first place, and the rest of the world

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Speaker 2: is going ahead and we are getting left behind us

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Speaker 2: and Australia, and I have to say on this occasion,

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Speaker 2: I think Australia is worse off than we are, but

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Speaker 2: that doesn't mean that our situation isn't bad enough. We

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Speaker 2: update you on a couple of things. California politics is

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Speaker 2: synonymous with many things, but failed energy policy might be

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Speaker 2: the most relevant. The Ivan par solar power plant Solar

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Speaker 2: is on its way to being shut down just eleven

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Speaker 2: years after it opened. PG and E be the electric

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Speaker 2: company pulled out of its contract with the plant, leading

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Speaker 2: to a planned of two of its three units by

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Speaker 2: next year, while Southern California Edison is also working on

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Speaker 2: buying out its contract now. The plant costs two point

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Speaker 2: two billion US dollars to build, and the Department of

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Speaker 2: Energy said taxpayers will receive a refund of an undisclosed

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Speaker 2: amount for the one point six billion in department loans.

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Speaker 2: The contracts were supposed to take the plant through to

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Speaker 2: at least twenty thirty nine. In all, the energy from

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Speaker 2: the plant costs too much money. It produced around seventy

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Speaker 2: percent of what was projected to produce annually. The sea

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Speaker 2: of mirrors that the plant relied on to produce the

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Speaker 2: energy led to the plant catching on fire in twenty

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Speaker 2: sixteen after mirrors were wrongly positioned in relation to the sun.

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Speaker 2: The plants struggled with energy production due to weather, clouds

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Speaker 2: and jet streams, and was also pretty bad for the

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Speaker 2: environment what with the whole burning birds to death thing.

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Speaker 2: The plant also used natural gas to keep itself running

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Speaker 2: around six times the limit allowed by the California Energy Commission. Now,

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Speaker 2: what is most shocking is the scope and scale of

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Speaker 2: this project compared to the IKI nuclear energy California has

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Speaker 2: tried to rid itself of over the same period. In

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, IVANPA produced eight hundred and fifty six gigawad

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Speaker 2: hours of energy. This represented a substantial increase in efficiency

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Speaker 2: and output in ninety one percent of the plant's production goals.

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Speaker 2: The plant takes up three and a half thousand acres

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Speaker 2: of land. That's one big farm, whatever it is. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant is the last nuclear plants

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Speaker 2: in California. It takes up around seven hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: acres and produces over seventeen thousand, seven hundred gigawad hours

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Speaker 2: of energy. That is around tw times more than ivanpaer

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Speaker 2: and accounted for over eight percent of California's in state

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Speaker 2: energy production in twenty twenty three. The comparisons are just obscene,

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Speaker 2: aren't they now? There is a second part to this

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Speaker 2: climate matter, because a couple of weeks back, I was

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Speaker 2: attempting to address some water level issues around the Solomon

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Speaker 2: Islands for an inquiry from one of our listeners, so

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Speaker 2: I referred to a man named Matthew Wilicky wie Licki

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Speaker 2: and the heading is the CEA level lie exposed. For years,

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Speaker 2: climate narratives have relentlessly painted a dire picture. The ice

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Speaker 2: caps are melting, oceans arising, and humanity is teetering on

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Speaker 2: the edge of catastrophic flooding. You've heard it repeatedly from politicians, activists,

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Speaker 2: media outlets, eager to dramatize each incremental rise in global

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Speaker 2: temperatures as an unprecedented disaster. But what if the fundamental

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Speaker 2: assumptions driving these alarming predictions were deeply flawed Over the

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Speaker 2: last year I've exposed, says the author, a pattern of

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Speaker 2: contradictions between what we're told about sea level rise and

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Speaker 2: what the data actually shows, contradictions that now culminate in

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Speaker 2: a far deeper crisis of scientific understanding. In fact, it's

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Speaker 2: this body of work that has led coastal policy makers,

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Speaker 2: those tasked with real world decisions about infrastructure zoning and

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Speaker 2: emergency response to reach out to me privately to understand

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Speaker 2: what is really happening. They're rightly skeptical when headlines scream

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Speaker 2: about surging seas, yet local tide gages tell a much

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Speaker 2: different story. Take, for example, my piece where I dismantled

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Speaker 2: absurd claims like those made in the New York Post

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Speaker 2: suggesting that New York City sea levels might surge might

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Speaker 2: surge thirteen inches by the twenty thirties. Those projections were

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Speaker 2: based on implausible, worst case scenarios and ignored critical facts. Much,

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Speaker 2: if not most, of New York's relative sea level rise

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Speaker 2: is due to land subsidence. In fact, current sea levels

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Speaker 2: measured at the Battery tide gauge in New York are

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Speaker 2: roughly equivalent to levels first observed in the early nineteen forties,

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Speaker 2: meaning nearly a century of catastrophic sea level rise has

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Speaker 2: simply brought us back to where we were already. In

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Speaker 2: another article, I examined the Holocene thermal maximum, a period

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Speaker 2: when Greenland was four to was four to eight point

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Speaker 2: five degrees centigrade warmer than today. Astonishingly, despite this warmth,

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Speaker 2: global sea levels were lower than today. How is this possible?

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Speaker 2: If the models predict catastrophic sea level rise are correct,

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Speaker 2: if Greenland's ice levels survived such warming without deluging the coasts,

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Speaker 2: how do we reconcile this with claims that current modest

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Speaker 2: warming will do so. Then there's the adjusting reality, where

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Speaker 2: I explored the peculiar pattern in satellite sea level measurements.

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Speaker 2: Each time a new satellites launched, the sea level trend

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Speaker 2: is adjusted upward, not downward, never flat, always up. A

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Speaker 2: skeptic might wonder whether these corrections reflect science or storytelling.

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Speaker 2: In how a simple math eraror derailed doomsday sea level forecasts,

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Speaker 2: I discussed recent research showing that foundational equations used in

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Speaker 2: ice flower models might be significantly flawed. A mischaracterization of

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Speaker 2: how temperate glacier ice flows could mean that projections of

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Speaker 2: future sea level rise have been overstated when plugged into

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Speaker 2: the When plugged into the same models the IPC SEA users,

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Speaker 2: the corrected equations yield far less ominous results. And finally,

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Speaker 2: a piece that presented satellite evidence that many coastlines around

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Speaker 2: the world are actually growing, yes growing, despite rising seas.

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Speaker 2: Land accretion driven by natural processes like sediment deposition, is

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Speaker 2: outpacing erosion in many regions. Now, three recent papers may

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Speaker 2: deliver the most decisive blow yet to the climate establishment's

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Speaker 2: sea level narrative. Goes on to list them. If you

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Speaker 2: want to find it, I suggest you search the sea

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Speaker 2: level lie exposed by Matthew waylicky W I E l

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Speaker 2: I C K I, and you'll find it. And you'll

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Speaker 2: also like to find it if you search irrational Fear

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Speaker 2: dot substack dot com. Now, having got that out of

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Speaker 2: the way and with some personal pleasure, we will join

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Speaker 2: George Friedman after a short break. Buccolan is a natural

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Speaker 2: oral vaccine in a tablet form called bacterial nicate. It'll

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Speaker 2: boost your natural protection against bacterial infections in your chest

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Speaker 2: and throat. A three day course of seven Buckland tablets

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Speaker 2: will help your body build up to three months of

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Speaker 2: immunity against bugs which cause bacterial cold symptoms. So who

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Speaker 2: can take buccolan well the whole family From two years

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Speaker 2: of age and upwards. A course of Buckelan tablets offers

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Speaker 2: cost effective and safe protection from colds and chills. Protection

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Speaker 2: becomes effective a few days after you take buccolan and

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Speaker 2: lasts for up to three months following the three day course.

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Speaker 2: Buccolan can be taken throughout the cold season, over winter,

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Speaker 2: or all the year round. And remember Buckelan is not

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Speaker 2: intended as an alternative to influenza vaccination, but may be

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Speaker 2: used along with the flu vaccination for added protection. And

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Speaker 2: keep in mind that millions of doses have been taken

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Speaker 2: by Kiwi's for over fifty years. Only available from your pharmacist.

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Speaker 2: Always read the label and users directed, and see your

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Speaker 2: doctor if systems persist. Farmer Broker Auckland Leighton Smith George

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Speaker 2: Friedman has a long history with regard to geopolitics. He

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Speaker 2: was a well he has a PhD. And he was

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Speaker 2: a professor at the War College in Pennsylvania for a

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Speaker 2: number of years, and then he went private and has

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Speaker 2: since established two companies. The most recent, of course, and

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Speaker 2: the most stable, is Geopolitical Futures. It's intrigued me that

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Speaker 2: over the years he has declined to make use of

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Speaker 2: both his doctorate, as in doctor George Friedman or the professorship.

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Speaker 2: I used to call him professor doctor George Friedman, but

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Speaker 2: he didn't like it, so I dropped it, and I'm

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Speaker 2: just filling in his blank slate for you at the moment.

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Speaker 2: So George. Great to have you back on the podcast,

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Speaker 2: and I do appreciate it because I know how busy

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Speaker 2: you are working on a new book.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm very glad to be here and not working

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Speaker 3: on the book. Now, do it something.

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Speaker 2: Else that's nice? Well, let me revert then to the

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Speaker 2: present book, the one that was released back in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: The release of the book that I want to discuss

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Speaker 2: with you briefly, the Storm before the Calm, was on

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Speaker 2: the same day that COVID broken America and the media

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Speaker 2: went mad. You lost all your appointments and television interviews, etc.

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Speaker 2: Which disturbed the sale of the book. But we have

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Speaker 2: discussed before it is still selling, and not in huge numbers,

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Speaker 2: but steadily and more and more people I know are

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Speaker 2: becoming attached to it because of what you put in

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Speaker 2: that book with regard to what's happening. Now, why don't

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Speaker 2: we start with a brief from you on what the

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Speaker 2: book was about and how it fits in with what

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Speaker 2: the current events in the US and the world die.

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Speaker 4: The book's called Storm for the comm and what I

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Speaker 4: found is a pattern in the United States that every

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Speaker 4: fifty years or so, the United States goes through a

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Speaker 4: social and economic crisis. I also found that every eighty

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Speaker 4: years it reinventsd government institutions through an institutional crisis. But

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Speaker 4: I saw that this time, for the first time in

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Speaker 4: American history, I noticed that for this time, both the

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Speaker 4: institutional cycle and this geopolitical cycle and the socio economic

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Speaker 4: cycle are going to be taking place at the same time.

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Speaker 4: So I said that the twenty twenty four election is

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Speaker 4: going to open the storm before the calm, which is

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Speaker 4: we always have a massive crisis for.

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Speaker 3: It, major unrest.

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Speaker 4: Then twenty twenty eight next president takes it into a

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Speaker 4: commer place. And so now we're in the middle of

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Speaker 4: the storm that was predictable by the history of America,

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Speaker 4: and we're trying to find our way through it.

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Speaker 2: I'm intrigued and have been ever since the book was

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Speaker 2: released on how you came to the conclusion and what

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Speaker 2: causes these cycles to follow the pattern.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's very hard to explain that because I'm not

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Speaker 4: really sure. But one fundamental thing I know about is

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Speaker 4: that we reinvent the country periodically.

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Speaker 3: The United States, it was an invented country. It did

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Speaker 3: not exist.

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Speaker 4: It was the first major democratic republic created, and it

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Speaker 4: crafted itself. It engineered itself into existence through the constitution

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Speaker 4: of other things. And it's a country that's used to obsolescence.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't take the norm as the way it should be.

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Speaker 4: We start ourselves by breaking the norm. So every fifty

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Speaker 4: years or so, the way this social economic system works,

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Speaker 4: it gets obsolete. It has to be changed. Now there's

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Speaker 4: the factions where the norm is passed and that must continue,

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Speaker 4: faction that demands it to restructure itself. So both in

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Speaker 4: terms of social and economic life, in terms of institutional life,

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Speaker 4: we continually reinvent ourselves. Unlike other countries that allow their

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Speaker 4: systems to go on slowly shifting, we do radical upsurges.

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Speaker 4: And when that happens, it looks like we're going to pieces.

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Speaker 4: And we are in the middle of the storm right now.

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Speaker 4: We elected a president and created a storm, and if

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Speaker 4: history is correct, a few years will come out of

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Speaker 4: it in a very different way than we were.

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Speaker 2: So I quote from Trump's place in US political cycles,

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Speaker 2: the normal pattern in US political history is that ineffective

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Speaker 2: presidents are elected at the end of a fifty year cycle,

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Speaker 2: so that their presidencies exist in social and economic chaos.

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Speaker 2: These presidents, usually through no fold of their own, lose

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Speaker 2: the ability to govern, and in the following election, a

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Speaker 2: president who can change where we are and set the

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Speaker 2: country in a new direction is elected.

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Speaker 4: And what happened was Biden was the one who presided

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Speaker 4: over a disintegrating structure. It didn't disintegrate it, it was disintegrating.

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Speaker 4: Trump comes in and radically changes everything, just like Roosevelt

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Speaker 4: did and others before him radically changes, and then the

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Speaker 4: one after that takes us back into the calm. So

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Speaker 4: the storm is the part where we restructure who we are,

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Speaker 4: We change who we are, how we live, and then

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty eight we'll say we'll come back to it

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Speaker 4: with norm, a calmer norm. So it's not a normal,

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Speaker 4: calm transition. It is an extensively painful, extensively stormy relationship

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Speaker 4: between the state and many of the citizens were caught

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Speaker 4: between the phases. But then it calms down for the

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Speaker 4: next fifty years, and the same with the institutionals cycle.

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Speaker 4: Every eighty years it shifts. We went from the Revolution

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Speaker 4: we took it eighty years later, to the Civil War

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Speaker 4: we took it later, to the Great Depression in eighty

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Speaker 4: year cycles. It's eighty years. So our institutions are also

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Speaker 4: being changed. The problem that Trump has he both has

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Speaker 4: to change the social and economic relationship and he has

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Speaker 4: to change the way the institutions work. So he is

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Speaker 4: more reckless, it seems, than previous presidents because the task

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Speaker 4: that he has, whether he knows it or not, I

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Speaker 4: don't know, is to do the things he's doing. And

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Speaker 4: any president who would be elected regardless, would do this

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Speaker 4: at the same time. Whether it's whether it be the

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Speaker 4: same style, obviously it'd be a different style. But it's

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Speaker 4: very similar to what Franklin Roosevelt did. Franklin Roosevelt came

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Speaker 4: into office as champion of the poor. In the first

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Speaker 4: one hundred days, he shut down the banking system against law.

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Speaker 4: By the way, thought Supreme Court was regarded as on

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Speaker 4: his way to take charatorship, that he would dominate the country,

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Speaker 4: issued ninety nine executive orders not confirmed by Congress. In

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Speaker 4: other words, we've been through this before, and we went

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Speaker 4: through eighty years ago, and this is the way we

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Speaker 4: change ourselves.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the part that well, I was going to say

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Speaker 2: the part that intrigues me, but I can't say that

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Speaker 2: because it's more than many more than one part. But

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Speaker 2: let me quote from what I was just a few

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Speaker 2: minutes ago. Trump's first impact will be in trying to

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Speaker 2: redefine cultural norms. You'll also try to change tech schemes

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Speaker 2: for corporation, and probably most important, he'll try to shift economic, political,

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Speaker 2: and military relations with allies. He will impose newly defined

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Speaker 2: economic rules for international trade, increased regard for US interests,

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Speaker 2: and the reconsideration of foreign commitments with allies. How is

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Speaker 2: he faring with that list?

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Speaker 4: Well, he's doing all of them. Inside of the country.

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Speaker 4: The culture wars between the left and the right are raging,

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Speaker 4: and he's overthrowing the cultural system that it existed before

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Speaker 4: or placing with something different. We're seeing him trying to

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Speaker 4: shift relations with the rest of the world, to pull

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Speaker 4: the United States back from responsibility for the rest of

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Speaker 4: the world, have more orderly relationship, and of course dealing

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Speaker 4: with economic problems, both domestically and especially in that process

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Speaker 4: in natural relations.

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Speaker 2: The list of thing that you put there, how did

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Speaker 2: you arrive at that? Was it because you were aware

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Speaker 2: of what he had in mind? Or you drew up

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Speaker 2: that list separately and he's following it well.

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Speaker 4: A theory about fifteen twenty years ago of these cycles,

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Speaker 4: I took a look at previous cycles. The fifty year

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Speaker 4: cycle blastphar was Ronald Reagan. He changed the tax code

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Speaker 4: before that was Roosevelt, and so on and so forth.

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Speaker 3: So there's a.

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Speaker 4: Model for how we evolve. And it's not like any

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Speaker 4: of the country's a bottle. It is not a revolutionary

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Speaker 4: model in the sense that the government is overthrown, nor

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Speaker 4: is it a passive slow evolution. It is a radical

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Speaker 4: crisis within the framework of our governance. And it's inherent

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Speaker 4: in American culture. American culture is built on obsolescence and

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Speaker 4: replacing things. American culture is not based on revering the past,

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Speaker 4: but in reforming and changing it. So it's part of

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Speaker 4: our culture to throw things away, rebuild them discarded, to

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Speaker 4: not be afraid of radical change in our personal lives

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Speaker 4: or in our national life. So it is inherently part

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Speaker 4: of the American culture, the reinvention of the nation, and

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Speaker 4: we go through it regularly. And so I just looked

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Speaker 4: at how it worked in previous times, and is it

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Speaker 4: working out pretty much the same, except a little more

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Speaker 4: intense because two cycles getting at the same time.

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Speaker 2: Is there anybody else you can think of who's in

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Speaker 2: play at the moment? Has been for the last say,

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Speaker 2: ten years, who could have done this job apart from Trump?

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Speaker 4: The answer is that Trump isn't doing a job. Trump

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Speaker 4: is merely responding to what's reality.

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Speaker 2: All right, So is there anybody else who would have

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Speaker 2: responded in the way that he has and is and succeed.

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Speaker 4: Anybody at this point would realize that the cultural wars

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Speaker 4: are unsustainable, that our position for eighty years in the

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Speaker 4: Cold War is not sustainable, and would want to change them.

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Speaker 4: Now he has a personal style that's his own. But

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Speaker 4: then Roosevelt had a person style his own. He was

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Speaker 4: an incredibly rich man, incredibly rich who convinced everybody who

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Speaker 4: was a friend of the poor. I doubt that he

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Speaker 4: ever met a poor person who wasn't a servant, but.

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Speaker 3: He convinced them.

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Speaker 4: So when you're in this position as a president, you

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Speaker 4: carve your personality to what's needed.

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Speaker 3: You don't come in with it.

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Speaker 4: Will you get selected because you have this personality a

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Speaker 4: radical one, or you make yourself into what's needed.

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Speaker 3: But it's not the person that's the hero.

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Speaker 4: It's a system of governance that allows us radical change,

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Speaker 4: and that consistently has done it ever since the eighteenth century.

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Speaker 4: So whoever would be president of this time would face

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Speaker 4: the same problems he did. They might be more polite

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Speaker 4: in changing it, they might be less polite. I don't know,

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Speaker 4: but I could. The model allowed me to predict in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty. In a previous book, I wrote The Next

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Speaker 4: hundred Years, which was quite a while before then, that

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Speaker 4: this was the time we would run into the storm

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Speaker 4: that we would not go to be able to sustain

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Speaker 4: the system. And the hero is the American constitution and

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Speaker 4: American culture. And Roosevelt took advantage of that. Abraham Lincoln

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Speaker 4: took advantage of that, and so does Donald Trump. It's

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Speaker 4: not him that's doing it. He's facing a crisis that

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Speaker 4: has to be solved and there's only a limited set

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Speaker 4: of solutions, and he's doing it because he's compelled by

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Speaker 4: reality to do it. Now he knows how to carve

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Speaker 4: himself into something he wants to be because he made

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Speaker 4: himself president. And to be president, you have to re

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Speaker 4: arrange yourself, your personality, you're thinking to the moment. That's

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Speaker 4: what a president does. He doesn't create the crisis. He

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Speaker 4: tries to manage it. And so I would have argued

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Speaker 4: that the same thing would have happened under virtue, anyone

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Speaker 4: who's capable of being president. That is being done by

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Speaker 4: Trump is fine. He'll be considered a hero and the

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Speaker 4: history will go on. But it's not, if you will

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Speaker 4: his personal achievement. He's kind of trapped in a reality.

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Speaker 2: Although there are two relatively recent presidents who were not

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Speaker 2: capable of doing it. The latter one, of course, we're

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Speaker 2: well familiar with, and the one before that was well

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Speaker 2: led to the Reagan election. So was it possible that

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Speaker 2: somebody else could have been elected. It doesn't matter which

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Speaker 2: particular party they belonged to, but could have been elected

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Speaker 2: and have done the same job. I mean, Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 2: could she have done this job.

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Speaker 4: He's not doing the job. The job is happening. The crisis,

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Speaker 4: the cultural crisis in the United States between two cultures,

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Speaker 4: the culture of the left, if you want, the culture

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Speaker 4: of the right was there, it was happening. The economic

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Speaker 4: crisis was there, was happening. The obsolescence of the federal

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Speaker 4: system was there and happening. The end of the Cold

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Speaker 4: War was there and happening. So it's not that he

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Speaker 4: made these things. He's just because he's a president. You

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Speaker 4: have to be pretty smart to be president, and you

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Speaker 4: have to be an illomaniac to be a president. The

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Speaker 4: only difference between Trump and other presidents, she doesn't mind

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Speaker 4: showing it is egomaniac. And in each time that this happens,

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Speaker 4: the president is hated. The president who faces the problem

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Speaker 4: and changes the norms is hated. Franklin Roosevelt was considered

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Speaker 4: a man who wanted to be a dictator. Abraham Lincoln

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Speaker 4: was a man who was an illiterate, incapable of understanding anything.

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Speaker 4: So you don't take a country of three hundred million

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Speaker 4: people and act as if a single man had the

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Speaker 4: ability to change things ten years ago. That could not

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Speaker 4: have been a change made. It was not ripe enough

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Speaker 4: the situation. Biden couldn't have done it if he wanted to.

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Speaker 4: He wasn't in this position. But any president who'd be

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Speaker 4: elected would see the cultural wars, would see the economic problems,

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Speaker 4: would see the international problems and deal with them. And

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Speaker 4: that's what his agenda is, all the things that came

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Speaker 4: to a head now. So I think it's really important

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00:27:07,333 --> 00:27:12,093
Speaker 4: to depersonalize this, although we're living with him. The success

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Speaker 4: of America is that even a man like Ronald Reagan,

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Speaker 4: who was not a particularly good politician but very much liked,

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Speaker 4: made a radical change in the US economy. He changed

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Speaker 4: it from emphasizing the tax code to be taxing the

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Speaker 4: rich and less the poor, switched it around a ridiculous idea,

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Speaker 4: and thereby made possible to tech boom because he created

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Speaker 4: wealth that was able to invest. Now, was he an economist, No.

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Speaker 4: Was he a visionary No, but he certainly understood the

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Speaker 4: moment of time that he was like the president.

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Speaker 3: Because he didn't understand it, he wouldn't have been elected.

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Speaker 2: Now, the foundation for this interview is really foreign policy,

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Speaker 2: because of what's going on in the world that has

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Speaker 2: got everybody well excited. What quite briefly Neil Ferguson, who

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Speaker 2: wrote a couple of days ago, US foreign policy, Henry

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Speaker 2: Kissinger once observed, is perceived from outside as a single

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Speaker 2: coherent grand strategy, whereas in reality it is the net

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Speaker 2: result of multiple interagency battles and sometimes produces outcomes not

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Speaker 2: one of the players precisely intended. So it is with

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration. Is that accurate? Do you think heye?

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Speaker 2: Reverse it?

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Speaker 4: From the outside, it looks like we don't know what

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Speaker 4: we're doing. From the inside, it's pretty clear what we're doing.

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Speaker 4: So I know Neil and I respect him, but I

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Speaker 4: flip it all around.

432
00:28:52,253 --> 00:28:56,293
Speaker 2: So for those people who who think that Trump is well,

433
00:28:56,373 --> 00:29:00,333
Speaker 2: they call him all sorts of things still, and there's

434
00:29:01,173 --> 00:29:06,453
Speaker 2: enough of it in this country. A full joke, incompetent.

435
00:29:07,413 --> 00:29:08,733
Speaker 2: What do you say?

436
00:29:09,333 --> 00:29:13,093
Speaker 4: Every president at this point in history is regarded as

437
00:29:13,093 --> 00:29:17,933
Speaker 4: a joke. Ronald Reagan was regarded as a joke. Franklin

438
00:29:18,013 --> 00:29:21,813
Speaker 4: Roosevelt was regarded as a joke. Going back all the way,

439
00:29:22,373 --> 00:29:25,853
Speaker 4: when you get to the point when you say, look,

440
00:29:26,053 --> 00:29:29,173
Speaker 4: this has fallen apart, I'm going to have to change everything.

441
00:29:29,573 --> 00:29:30,573
Speaker 3: You're held in contempt.

442
00:29:31,093 --> 00:29:35,453
Speaker 4: People love the norm, even if it's hurting them, even

443
00:29:35,493 --> 00:29:40,253
Speaker 4: if it's painful. They don't like radical change. Any president

444
00:29:40,293 --> 00:29:43,213
Speaker 4: comes in at this time will be forced to make

445
00:29:43,293 --> 00:29:47,613
Speaker 4: radical change, and therefore you always wind up in a

446
00:29:47,693 --> 00:29:54,133
Speaker 4: situation where this president during his term is held in contempt. Interestingly,

447
00:29:54,533 --> 00:30:01,173
Speaker 4: history now regards both Reagan and Roosevelt as brilliant, wonderful heroes.

448
00:30:02,093 --> 00:30:06,653
Speaker 4: So the moment he's in, whether he wants to or not,

449
00:30:06,693 --> 00:30:09,853
Speaker 4: he's doing the things he has to do, and he's

450
00:30:09,933 --> 00:30:13,453
Speaker 4: being reviled for it. Well, that's the way it works.

451
00:30:14,213 --> 00:30:17,453
Speaker 4: Oddly enough, so every fifty years if president hated.

452
00:30:18,373 --> 00:30:21,373
Speaker 2: So I've also heard people say that Trump is actually

453
00:30:21,853 --> 00:30:22,813
Speaker 2: a genius.

454
00:30:23,293 --> 00:30:26,613
Speaker 3: Well, I don't see that he's a genius. I didn't

455
00:30:26,613 --> 00:30:28,293
Speaker 3: think that Reagan was all.

456
00:30:28,093 --> 00:30:31,093
Speaker 4: That right, and I started didn't think Roosevelt had any

457
00:30:31,133 --> 00:30:34,133
Speaker 4: idea what he was doing. So you don't have to

458
00:30:34,133 --> 00:30:37,693
Speaker 4: be a genius to just submit to reality. The only

459
00:30:37,733 --> 00:30:40,533
Speaker 4: thing I have to be is sensitive enough to understand

460
00:30:40,733 --> 00:30:41,893
Speaker 4: that something's going wrong.

461
00:30:41,973 --> 00:30:43,573
Speaker 3: It has to be done.

462
00:30:43,853 --> 00:30:46,133
Speaker 4: So whether he's a genius or not, he lives at

463
00:30:46,173 --> 00:30:48,573
Speaker 4: the right moment in history, and I think he'll go

464
00:30:48,613 --> 00:30:52,293
Speaker 4: down in the history books, oddly enough, from our point

465
00:30:52,293 --> 00:30:56,013
Speaker 4: of view, as quite an effective president. If I had

466
00:30:56,053 --> 00:31:01,213
Speaker 4: said that about Theodore Franklin Roosevelt in nineteen fifty two,

467
00:31:01,933 --> 00:31:03,933
Speaker 4: a lot of people looked at me like I was crazy.

468
00:31:04,933 --> 00:31:08,293
Speaker 3: So the views of presidents change over time.

469
00:31:09,053 --> 00:31:14,533
Speaker 4: Again, Abraham Lincoln, revered, was regarded as an illiterate pumpkin

470
00:31:14,813 --> 00:31:17,373
Speaker 4: who had no business being president, and that was the

471
00:31:17,413 --> 00:31:20,613
Speaker 4: general view, and the South also left like that. So

472
00:31:21,213 --> 00:31:24,853
Speaker 4: don't really focus on the moment. Compare the moment to

473
00:31:24,933 --> 00:31:26,293
Speaker 4: previous moments, and then you.

474
00:31:26,293 --> 00:31:30,333
Speaker 2: Can understand it at the risk of providing Neil Ferguson

475
00:31:30,493 --> 00:31:33,573
Speaker 2: too much when I'm talking with you, this is the

476
00:31:33,653 --> 00:31:36,853
Speaker 2: last time Trump's critics generally overlook that he is a

477
00:31:36,893 --> 00:31:40,293
Speaker 2: pacifist at hart who prefers trade wars to real wars

478
00:31:40,813 --> 00:31:43,853
Speaker 2: and dreams of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

479
00:31:44,093 --> 00:31:46,893
Speaker 4: Well, I have no idea what he dreams of, but

480
00:31:47,093 --> 00:31:49,933
Speaker 4: what he's doing is face and reality. In foreign policy,

481
00:31:51,373 --> 00:31:54,973
Speaker 4: the Cold War is over. It ended the Ukraine. The

482
00:31:55,053 --> 00:32:00,253
Speaker 4: Russians performed so poorly militarily in Ukraine that any idea

483
00:32:00,293 --> 00:32:04,893
Speaker 4: that they are going to bed Europe is absurd. Therefore,

484
00:32:04,973 --> 00:32:08,413
Speaker 4: why should the United States remain committed to your or

485
00:32:09,373 --> 00:32:13,773
Speaker 4: eighty years after it started. So definitely, he looks at

486
00:32:13,813 --> 00:32:17,613
Speaker 4: this and sees, Okay, let's get out of there. Let's

487
00:32:17,653 --> 00:32:21,373
Speaker 4: stop being so vulnerable to what happens to the rest

488
00:32:21,373 --> 00:32:23,093
Speaker 4: of the world. Let the rest of the world take

489
00:32:23,093 --> 00:32:28,853
Speaker 4: care of itself. Similarly, he says, why are we simultaneously

490
00:32:28,893 --> 00:32:33,373
Speaker 4: in hostile relations with China and totally dependent on imports

491
00:32:33,373 --> 00:32:35,173
Speaker 4: from China to run an industry?

492
00:32:36,133 --> 00:32:40,493
Speaker 3: And he slams sanctions on Is he genius? Is he lucky?

493
00:32:40,733 --> 00:32:43,773
Speaker 4: Is he smart? This at this moment was the things

494
00:32:43,773 --> 00:32:46,693
Speaker 4: we have to be looking at and we're doing it.

495
00:32:46,813 --> 00:32:47,453
Speaker 2: Is he smart?

496
00:32:48,333 --> 00:32:50,293
Speaker 4: Well, put it this way, he's smart enough to get

497
00:32:50,333 --> 00:32:53,173
Speaker 4: elected president of the United States, and that takes some

498
00:32:53,253 --> 00:32:56,013
Speaker 4: brains or at least some guts.

499
00:32:57,893 --> 00:33:02,373
Speaker 3: Is he brilliant? I have no idea, but I would.

500
00:33:02,253 --> 00:33:06,213
Speaker 4: Say he's in the right spot to wind up looking great.

501
00:33:06,573 --> 00:33:13,213
Speaker 2: Okay, let's move to the major cause for the discussion now,

502
00:33:13,213 --> 00:33:17,373
Speaker 2: that is the Israel Iran War. What was the defining

503
00:33:17,493 --> 00:33:18,933
Speaker 2: cause of the outbreak?

504
00:33:20,973 --> 00:33:25,093
Speaker 4: It was the failure of negotiations that Trump was trying

505
00:33:25,093 --> 00:33:30,213
Speaker 4: to do with the Iranians. Remember, there was a long

506
00:33:30,333 --> 00:33:35,573
Speaker 4: process of negotiations about not having nuclear weapons, and when

507
00:33:35,573 --> 00:33:38,453
Speaker 4: it came down to the question that are you must

508
00:33:38,573 --> 00:33:44,893
Speaker 4: not create nuclear capabilities, the Iranians refused to do that.

509
00:33:45,693 --> 00:33:50,653
Speaker 4: At that point, the Israeli said, if these talks don't

510
00:33:50,693 --> 00:33:53,013
Speaker 4: get rid of those weapons, we have to get rid

511
00:33:53,053 --> 00:33:56,533
Speaker 4: of them because we think genuinely that Iran might use

512
00:33:56,613 --> 00:34:00,413
Speaker 4: nuclear weapons as Israel. So that's the story as it went,

513
00:34:01,453 --> 00:34:05,413
Speaker 4: and it was negotiations that Trump tried very hard to

514
00:34:05,413 --> 00:34:08,333
Speaker 4: get done and couldn't get done that triggered it.

515
00:34:08,693 --> 00:34:13,053
Speaker 2: I can't quite grasp why it was his I won't

516
00:34:13,053 --> 00:34:16,853
Speaker 2: call it a failure, but inability because it takes two

517
00:34:17,573 --> 00:34:23,653
Speaker 2: to tango. I can't quite grasp why he was responsible

518
00:34:23,773 --> 00:34:25,613
Speaker 2: for that, or at least that's the way. It seems

519
00:34:25,653 --> 00:34:31,693
Speaker 2: that you're leaning by failing when everybody every sorry, when

520
00:34:31,733 --> 00:34:37,133
Speaker 2: everybody knows that the Iranians' greatest aim on this planet

521
00:34:37,573 --> 00:34:39,493
Speaker 2: is to eradicate the Jews.

522
00:34:40,533 --> 00:34:44,853
Speaker 4: Well, I'm sorry if you misunderstood me. I'm not blaming Trump.

523
00:34:45,013 --> 00:34:47,933
Speaker 4: He tried very hard to get the negotiat going, and

524
00:34:47,973 --> 00:34:51,413
Speaker 4: it doesn't take two to tango. It takes both sides

525
00:34:51,493 --> 00:34:55,533
Speaker 4: willing to compromise. The Iranians were the ones who refused

526
00:34:55,573 --> 00:34:57,453
Speaker 4: to and that's what triggered the action.

527
00:34:58,693 --> 00:35:03,653
Speaker 2: Now, shortly before we started this podcast, I noticed a

528
00:35:03,693 --> 00:35:07,413
Speaker 2: headline I had no chance of chasing it down that

529
00:35:07,693 --> 00:35:10,413
Speaker 2: and I think it from I think it was from

530
00:35:10,413 --> 00:35:16,733
Speaker 2: CBS that the Iranians have flagged that they want to talk.

531
00:35:17,773 --> 00:35:20,213
Speaker 3: There's some indication that some people want to talk.

532
00:35:20,613 --> 00:35:25,253
Speaker 4: There's clearly a split in the Iranian government between the IRGC,

533
00:35:25,733 --> 00:35:32,053
Speaker 4: the Republican Guards, highly religious faction, and the military. The

534
00:35:32,133 --> 00:35:37,173
Speaker 4: military is not very happy with what the Iototala did,

535
00:35:38,173 --> 00:35:40,973
Speaker 4: and there's tension in there, so they may be having

536
00:35:40,973 --> 00:35:45,773
Speaker 4: an internal fight. I think the nominal military did not

537
00:35:45,893 --> 00:35:49,693
Speaker 4: want to go nuclear, the Republican guards didn't want to

538
00:35:49,733 --> 00:35:52,133
Speaker 4: go nuclear, and I think there's a battle going on

539
00:35:52,253 --> 00:35:53,173
Speaker 4: inside of your.

540
00:35:53,133 --> 00:35:57,733
Speaker 2: End of this, you write something you're doing doing a

541
00:35:57,733 --> 00:36:03,053
Speaker 2: lot of writing recently. You write something on the ways

542
00:36:03,093 --> 00:36:08,053
Speaker 2: that wars end, How do wars end? How is this

543
00:36:08,133 --> 00:36:09,373
Speaker 2: one going to shape up?

544
00:36:11,293 --> 00:36:17,053
Speaker 4: Well, One, there's no way that Israel will allow Iran

545
00:36:17,173 --> 00:36:21,413
Speaker 4: to develop a nuclear weapon. Second, they've shown that they

546
00:36:21,453 --> 00:36:26,973
Speaker 4: can penetrate with Masad deep into the country, identifying the

547
00:36:27,093 --> 00:36:31,853
Speaker 4: locations where people will be at a certain time of day,

548
00:36:31,933 --> 00:36:36,373
Speaker 4: and their military con coordinate to take them out. This

549
00:36:36,453 --> 00:36:40,453
Speaker 4: creates a crisis inside Iran. One of the things that

550
00:36:41,133 --> 00:36:45,813
Speaker 4: when the Shah was overthrown was that a religious faction

551
00:36:46,653 --> 00:36:51,013
Speaker 4: ruling the country would make it great. In this case,

552
00:36:52,213 --> 00:36:55,093
Speaker 4: and remember that secutarists were not driven out all the

553
00:36:55,133 --> 00:36:58,653
Speaker 4: way in this case, this is a war that ends

554
00:36:58,973 --> 00:37:02,533
Speaker 4: with an internal crisis in Iran, as many wars do.

555
00:37:03,293 --> 00:37:08,093
Speaker 4: With the Mullahs wanted to continue the fight in some

556
00:37:08,173 --> 00:37:11,813
Speaker 4: way way and with a lot of people ganging up

557
00:37:11,853 --> 00:37:16,133
Speaker 4: and try to stop it. So war end if one

558
00:37:16,213 --> 00:37:19,413
Speaker 4: side feats the other. It also ends if there's an

559
00:37:19,413 --> 00:37:21,613
Speaker 4: internal crisis that brings.

560
00:37:21,373 --> 00:37:24,413
Speaker 2: Us to a close with the number of shall we

561
00:37:24,493 --> 00:37:30,613
Speaker 2: say leaders in various fields, specifically science and the military,

562
00:37:31,493 --> 00:37:35,533
Speaker 2: who have been eliminated in the last week or foe.

563
00:37:36,733 --> 00:37:40,413
Speaker 2: Does this leave them naked to any extent.

564
00:37:41,053 --> 00:37:45,133
Speaker 4: Well, it's hard to say how much anyone leader matters

565
00:37:45,453 --> 00:37:50,573
Speaker 4: under anyone's scientist does. But it creates a tremendous crisis

566
00:37:50,573 --> 00:37:54,653
Speaker 4: of confidence in the government. How were the Israelis able

567
00:37:54,733 --> 00:37:59,333
Speaker 4: to plant so many spies, if you will, so many

568
00:37:59,333 --> 00:38:02,453
Speaker 4: covert operations in the country. It's very similar to what

569
00:38:02,493 --> 00:38:06,893
Speaker 4: happened to Ukraine. How were the Ukrainians able to penetrate

570
00:38:07,453 --> 00:38:11,853
Speaker 4: Russia so deep that they were able to attack air

571
00:38:11,893 --> 00:38:16,773
Speaker 4: fields in Siberia. So what we have in both cases

572
00:38:16,853 --> 00:38:22,413
Speaker 4: something very similar. A failure of their own intelligence service,

573
00:38:24,053 --> 00:38:28,813
Speaker 4: a failure of Iran's security police, and then a failure

574
00:38:29,093 --> 00:38:32,733
Speaker 4: to carry out their goal of having uclear weapons. So

575
00:38:32,813 --> 00:38:36,853
Speaker 4: this creates an internal crisis because everybody's wondering how could

576
00:38:36,933 --> 00:38:40,493
Speaker 4: they have been taken for such a riot And the

577
00:38:40,493 --> 00:38:44,613
Speaker 4: fact is they did very poorly, and that threads of regime.

578
00:38:46,173 --> 00:38:49,853
Speaker 2: Which country do you think, Let's just assume that there

579
00:38:49,973 --> 00:38:53,133
Speaker 2: is likely to be at some stage in the future

580
00:38:53,613 --> 00:38:57,253
Speaker 2: near or far use of nuclear weapons. Which country do

581
00:38:57,293 --> 00:39:01,573
Speaker 2: you think is the most likely to resort to it.

582
00:39:02,653 --> 00:39:06,413
Speaker 3: Well, there's a reason nobody's resorted to it. Yeah, mutually

583
00:39:06,493 --> 00:39:07,453
Speaker 3: assured destruction.

584
00:39:09,613 --> 00:39:13,373
Speaker 4: If you launch a nuclear weapon at a country doesn't

585
00:39:13,413 --> 00:39:17,213
Speaker 4: have it, that's okay. On the other hand, other countries

586
00:39:17,253 --> 00:39:19,733
Speaker 4: that have nuclear weapons will say, well, what are you

587
00:39:19,773 --> 00:39:23,973
Speaker 4: going to do next? So there's a reason that in

588
00:39:24,013 --> 00:39:27,773
Speaker 4: the eighty years since we've had nuclear weapons, no one

589
00:39:27,813 --> 00:39:30,013
Speaker 4: has used them except the US to end the World

590
00:39:30,093 --> 00:39:38,213
Speaker 4: War two, because the possibility of retaliation is so high

591
00:39:38,493 --> 00:39:42,893
Speaker 4: that you can't really risk it. If there had not

592
00:39:42,933 --> 00:39:45,813
Speaker 4: been nuclear weapons, I am sure the US and Russia

593
00:39:46,053 --> 00:39:51,253
Speaker 4: would have had a major war between themselves with nuclear weapons.

594
00:39:51,893 --> 00:39:55,093
Speaker 4: One of the things they realized that they, the leader

595
00:39:55,373 --> 00:39:58,693
Speaker 4: and the family were going to die, in other words,

596
00:39:58,853 --> 00:40:02,493
Speaker 4: in a nuclear war. In most wars, the leaders are safe.

597
00:40:02,933 --> 00:40:07,293
Speaker 4: It's other people fighting. In a nuclear war, it's highly

598
00:40:07,493 --> 00:40:10,973
Speaker 4: likely that they won't survive personally, and I think that's

599
00:40:11,293 --> 00:40:13,493
Speaker 4: one of the great forces that's limited it.

600
00:40:14,613 --> 00:40:17,413
Speaker 3: So who's likely to use a nuclear weapon?

601
00:40:18,173 --> 00:40:22,653
Speaker 4: Well, somebody who has got nuclear weapons fighting somebody who

602
00:40:22,693 --> 00:40:26,613
Speaker 4: doesn't have nuclear weapons, and he takes a shot at it,

603
00:40:27,453 --> 00:40:29,813
Speaker 4: But then everybody else will say, if you take a

604
00:40:29,853 --> 00:40:33,533
Speaker 4: shot at this guy, maybe you'll take a shot at us.

605
00:40:34,093 --> 00:40:40,173
Speaker 4: Nuclear weapons have had a miracle. They prevented wars that

606
00:40:40,213 --> 00:40:41,253
Speaker 4: would happened otherwise.

607
00:40:45,493 --> 00:40:47,973
Speaker 2: Tell me if you can where you think that Trump

608
00:40:48,093 --> 00:40:53,453
Speaker 2: might go direction wise on any oral fronts that he's

609
00:40:53,493 --> 00:40:54,493
Speaker 2: dealing with at the moment.

610
00:40:56,093 --> 00:41:02,773
Speaker 4: Well in the domestic front, his cultural wars clearly have

611
00:41:03,213 --> 00:41:06,733
Speaker 4: put the culture of woke, if you want, on defensive.

612
00:41:08,133 --> 00:41:14,453
Speaker 4: In terms of the institutional the federal government has become obsolete.

613
00:41:14,613 --> 00:41:18,573
Speaker 4: It was created during World War Two to fight the war.

614
00:41:18,773 --> 00:41:21,853
Speaker 4: Before that, it was a very small government. It was

615
00:41:22,053 --> 00:41:26,573
Speaker 4: created to fight that war, and it did it very well.

616
00:41:26,653 --> 00:41:30,733
Speaker 4: But it has grown into such an unmanageable system that

617
00:41:30,733 --> 00:41:33,173
Speaker 4: already can't take it. And we learned that during COVID.

618
00:41:34,133 --> 00:41:38,573
Speaker 4: During COVID, the doctors were told, let's solve the COVID problem,

619
00:41:39,373 --> 00:41:43,573
Speaker 4: and doctor Fauci said, you should all stay home, not

620
00:41:43,693 --> 00:41:48,093
Speaker 4: go outside, kids should not go to school. Do that, well,

621
00:41:48,093 --> 00:41:52,333
Speaker 4: it's a good medical solution. Nobody consulted the Department of Education.

622
00:41:53,133 --> 00:41:55,733
Speaker 4: What happens a four and five year old doesn't play

623
00:41:55,733 --> 00:41:59,693
Speaker 4: with other kids, and what happens to the economy if

624
00:41:59,693 --> 00:42:04,653
Speaker 4: you do this. So COVID really showed that the federal

625
00:42:04,693 --> 00:42:10,973
Speaker 4: government has structured is extremely large, e sleedingly diverse, and

626
00:42:11,013 --> 00:42:15,693
Speaker 4: not coordinate in any way. The president is supposed to

627
00:42:15,733 --> 00:42:19,373
Speaker 4: coordinate the government. The problem is the government is so

628
00:42:19,533 --> 00:42:23,413
Speaker 4: vast and unruly that it's far to any one person,

629
00:42:23,653 --> 00:42:26,413
Speaker 4: even with a good staff, to understand what's going on.

630
00:42:27,733 --> 00:42:33,173
Speaker 4: So the federal government as it's structured has become obsolete.

631
00:42:33,893 --> 00:42:35,893
Speaker 4: If you have a problem, you don't know who to call,

632
00:42:36,693 --> 00:42:38,853
Speaker 4: and you have a right in the Constitution to pissue

633
00:42:38,853 --> 00:42:41,013
Speaker 4: in government, which you can't petition it.

634
00:42:41,773 --> 00:42:45,293
Speaker 3: So it it outlived. It's useless.

635
00:42:46,133 --> 00:42:48,533
Speaker 4: And what he did is what Roosevelt did in the

636
00:42:48,533 --> 00:42:51,173
Speaker 4: first hundred days of his campaign. He came in and

637
00:42:51,213 --> 00:42:54,653
Speaker 4: tried to wreck the government, not because he wanted to

638
00:42:54,693 --> 00:42:57,133
Speaker 4: tear it down and destroy it, but he wanted to

639
00:42:57,173 --> 00:43:00,853
Speaker 4: shock everyone. And knowing that is going away, the same

640
00:43:00,893 --> 00:43:05,133
Speaker 4: thing is happening in international relations. The United States ever

641
00:43:05,173 --> 00:43:08,133
Speaker 4: since the end of World War Two, has been in

642
00:43:08,853 --> 00:43:15,053
Speaker 4: wars in South Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, most of them involved

643
00:43:15,133 --> 00:43:20,493
Speaker 4: with fighting communism. In some way, the threat of war

644
00:43:20,973 --> 00:43:25,973
Speaker 4: occupying Western Europe is going away, and at this point

645
00:43:26,213 --> 00:43:31,853
Speaker 4: the European problem is gone. We built the trade system

646
00:43:32,293 --> 00:43:35,853
Speaker 4: after World War Two to fight the Cold War. We

647
00:43:35,933 --> 00:43:42,813
Speaker 4: reconstructed Europe, we reconstructed Germany, we reconstructed Japan, and we

648
00:43:42,973 --> 00:43:46,333
Speaker 4: fought in the Third World. We fought that war by

649
00:43:46,573 --> 00:43:50,973
Speaker 4: using far in aid to keep various countries from becoming

650
00:43:51,253 --> 00:43:58,813
Speaker 4: communists elements. So that was all obsolete. So we're seeing

651
00:43:58,853 --> 00:44:03,533
Speaker 4: a lot of obsolete systems being changed. And this Terriff

652
00:44:03,613 --> 00:44:07,453
Speaker 4: study put on there may not stand, but it does

653
00:44:07,493 --> 00:44:11,773
Speaker 4: signal fact that the post World War two model of

654
00:44:11,853 --> 00:44:15,613
Speaker 4: free trade, regardless of WATT and the US being the

655
00:44:15,693 --> 00:44:18,733
Speaker 4: major purchaser of goods, has to change.

656
00:44:20,173 --> 00:44:21,813
Speaker 2: What would you call Trump? Would you call him a

657
00:44:21,893 --> 00:44:23,893
Speaker 2: nationalist or a globalist?

658
00:44:26,573 --> 00:44:32,013
Speaker 4: I would call him a president who has some understanding

659
00:44:32,413 --> 00:44:37,573
Speaker 4: of the obsolescence of the system, and globalist and nationalist

660
00:44:37,893 --> 00:44:43,413
Speaker 4: are obsolete concepts. Nobody was really globalist. We were there

661
00:44:43,653 --> 00:44:49,173
Speaker 4: simply to block the Russians. And everybody's a nationalist because

662
00:44:49,213 --> 00:44:52,413
Speaker 4: it lived in a nation, So that distinction that people

663
00:44:52,453 --> 00:44:58,933
Speaker 4: to withdraw nationalist globalist. Well, Australia was never globalist. You

664
00:44:59,013 --> 00:45:02,213
Speaker 4: were taking care of yourselves. New Zealand was never globalist.

665
00:45:02,653 --> 00:45:05,933
Speaker 4: The United States was globalist, and the censors took responsibility

666
00:45:06,893 --> 00:45:10,133
Speaker 4: for holding the Russians the bay and for stabilizing the

667
00:45:10,133 --> 00:45:14,573
Speaker 4: global economy. Well, it's been stabilized and the Russians are

668
00:45:14,613 --> 00:45:18,133
Speaker 4: not a threat. So it's time to change our direction.

669
00:45:18,813 --> 00:45:23,773
Speaker 4: And that's what I was saying about reinvention. So it

670
00:45:23,933 --> 00:45:26,813
Speaker 4: is time to realize that the system that put in

671
00:45:26,853 --> 00:45:30,213
Speaker 4: place after World War Two is obsolete and moved to

672
00:45:30,293 --> 00:45:30,813
Speaker 4: a new one.

673
00:45:31,853 --> 00:45:33,493
Speaker 3: And that's what we're seeing happening.

674
00:45:35,013 --> 00:45:42,773
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we've we've barely mentioned the word. I can't

675
00:45:42,773 --> 00:45:47,773
Speaker 2: actually remember Ukraine at this point, but it was. It

676
00:45:47,853 --> 00:45:53,093
Speaker 2: was the first, shall we say, onslaught to stir up

677
00:45:53,133 --> 00:45:57,253
Speaker 2: things in the region and beyond. So where are we

678
00:45:57,333 --> 00:46:00,053
Speaker 2: at now? Well, better still, where are they at now?

679
00:46:00,453 --> 00:46:04,613
Speaker 4: Well, Russia's completely failed after three years of fighting.

680
00:46:04,853 --> 00:46:09,533
Speaker 3: He controls less than of the country.

681
00:46:10,333 --> 00:46:13,173
Speaker 4: He was driven out of Kiev the attack there too,

682
00:46:14,053 --> 00:46:16,173
Speaker 4: he was driven out of the center of the country.

683
00:46:16,853 --> 00:46:20,773
Speaker 4: He holds a very small piece of it now. In

684
00:46:20,813 --> 00:46:26,293
Speaker 4: addition to that, Trump attempted to start negotiations. He was

685
00:46:26,333 --> 00:46:30,933
Speaker 4: critical in that, and it was being clear that putin

686
00:46:31,093 --> 00:46:32,293
Speaker 4: was not prepared.

687
00:46:33,093 --> 00:46:34,653
Speaker 3: To enter those negotiations.

688
00:46:34,653 --> 00:46:39,013
Speaker 4: He would not have to cease fire, and he continually

689
00:46:39,093 --> 00:46:42,733
Speaker 4: put off stating what he needed to have a peace agreement.

690
00:46:44,213 --> 00:46:47,773
Speaker 3: This is very similar to what happened in Iran.

691
00:46:49,213 --> 00:46:52,933
Speaker 4: At a certain point, Trump said a deadline that he's

692
00:46:52,973 --> 00:46:58,293
Speaker 4: got to do it. Okay, the day line passed and

693
00:46:58,453 --> 00:47:05,813
Speaker 4: this incredible attack inside of Russia took place, destroying missiles,

694
00:47:06,293 --> 00:47:11,413
Speaker 4: destroying aircraft over at operation, very similar to what happened

695
00:47:11,453 --> 00:47:15,813
Speaker 4: in Iran. And the same thing happened in Iran. They

696
00:47:16,213 --> 00:47:19,853
Speaker 4: simply would not come to a firm conclusion where they

697
00:47:19,893 --> 00:47:23,893
Speaker 4: agreed not to have nuclear weapons. So the two things

698
00:47:24,253 --> 00:47:28,653
Speaker 4: kind of are very similar. Trump was a negotiator. He

699
00:47:28,693 --> 00:47:32,533
Speaker 4: wanted to make a piece. Putin didn't want that piece

700
00:47:32,613 --> 00:47:37,453
Speaker 4: yet I told us didn't want the peace, and so

701
00:47:38,053 --> 00:47:42,533
Speaker 4: a major shock happened to the system. The Russians now

702
00:47:42,653 --> 00:47:45,053
Speaker 4: have to figure out what they want to do. The

703
00:47:45,133 --> 00:47:47,533
Speaker 4: Russians said, we are not going to sit here and

704
00:47:47,573 --> 00:47:50,693
Speaker 4: tolerate what you did to us, ripping the country apart

705
00:47:51,133 --> 00:47:55,093
Speaker 4: with the COVID operations. He hasn't done anything since then,

706
00:47:55,773 --> 00:47:57,933
Speaker 4: so the question is what's going on inside of Russia.

707
00:47:59,213 --> 00:48:02,573
Speaker 4: He started a war, he failed at winning it. He

708
00:48:02,613 --> 00:48:06,613
Speaker 4: should have taken Ukraine, should have been taken in six months,

709
00:48:07,053 --> 00:48:10,133
Speaker 4: three months by the old Russian army.

710
00:48:10,253 --> 00:48:12,293
Speaker 3: This Russian army couldn't do it well.

711
00:48:12,293 --> 00:48:13,253
Speaker 2: Their tanks broke down.

712
00:48:14,373 --> 00:48:16,933
Speaker 4: Well, they thanks ran out of fuel. The fuel wasn't

713
00:48:16,933 --> 00:48:19,973
Speaker 4: there to give it to them. That's break, that's called

714
00:48:20,053 --> 00:48:24,653
Speaker 4: logistics fouling up. It was a war that failed, and

715
00:48:25,333 --> 00:48:31,293
Speaker 4: Putin can't end it, and Putin is desperately looking for

716
00:48:31,373 --> 00:48:35,133
Speaker 4: some way to redeem his system. In the United States,

717
00:48:35,173 --> 00:48:38,493
Speaker 4: when Lyndon Johnson got into a war that he couldn't win,

718
00:48:40,093 --> 00:48:42,013
Speaker 4: he was pushed out of office. I mean, it was

719
00:48:42,093 --> 00:48:45,253
Speaker 4: not possible for that happening. Dixon came in the end

720
00:48:45,253 --> 00:48:49,613
Speaker 4: of the war. Eventually, same thing here. He got into

721
00:48:49,653 --> 00:48:52,773
Speaker 4: a war and he lost it by not winning it,

722
00:48:52,893 --> 00:48:56,053
Speaker 4: just as we lost Vietnam by not winning it. And

723
00:48:56,173 --> 00:49:00,453
Speaker 4: he can keep fireing on the flying he is. He's unlikes.

724
00:49:00,693 --> 00:49:03,533
Speaker 4: I'm certain he's going to try some major move, major

725
00:49:03,613 --> 00:49:07,693
Speaker 4: violent move, but he's not done it in three years.

726
00:49:07,813 --> 00:49:10,653
Speaker 2: He's not going to do now, So what's his ending?

727
00:49:12,493 --> 00:49:18,093
Speaker 4: The normal end when a leader starts a war, be

728
00:49:18,173 --> 00:49:23,253
Speaker 4: it Hitler, be it Lynnon Johnson what have you is

729
00:49:23,293 --> 00:49:26,693
Speaker 4: that he is least a forced out of office. My

730
00:49:26,773 --> 00:49:30,933
Speaker 4: suspicion is that there's tremendous tension inside of Russia.

731
00:49:31,253 --> 00:49:32,973
Speaker 3: Remember that Putin is not Stalin.

732
00:49:33,093 --> 00:49:38,373
Speaker 4: He's not a credible ruler that can frighten everybody to death,

733
00:49:38,853 --> 00:49:40,373
Speaker 4: and there are a lot of people want end the war,

734
00:49:41,453 --> 00:49:43,213
Speaker 4: and he doesn't want to end the war looking like

735
00:49:44,133 --> 00:49:45,973
Speaker 4: a loser, but he is.

736
00:49:46,173 --> 00:49:50,293
Speaker 3: So I think there's tension building inside of Russia over this.

737
00:49:50,973 --> 00:49:56,173
Speaker 4: We're ignoring it a bit because the bombing of Iran happened,

738
00:49:56,653 --> 00:50:00,173
Speaker 4: but that really is one of the issues. It's interesting

739
00:50:00,173 --> 00:50:02,733
Speaker 4: to note how much on the sidelines Russia is in

740
00:50:02,813 --> 00:50:05,733
Speaker 4: the Iran issue. Normally they'd be all over the place

741
00:50:05,813 --> 00:50:09,653
Speaker 4: talking about get involved, trying to sport Ranian is something

742
00:50:09,893 --> 00:50:11,373
Speaker 4: they're just not even there.

743
00:50:11,533 --> 00:50:14,693
Speaker 2: Far as Putin is concerned. Play a medical analyst for

744
00:50:14,773 --> 00:50:20,773
Speaker 2: a moment and tell me why he behaves the way

745
00:50:20,813 --> 00:50:23,933
Speaker 2: he does and what triggered this question. Was you talking

746
00:50:23,973 --> 00:50:26,893
Speaker 2: about him not wanting to lose face. So as a

747
00:50:26,933 --> 00:50:30,333
Speaker 2: result of that, thousands or even tens of thousands of

748
00:50:30,493 --> 00:50:33,733
Speaker 2: people will die in the interim between now and whenever

749
00:50:33,853 --> 00:50:38,013
Speaker 2: this has ended. So what does that tell you about

750
00:50:38,373 --> 00:50:39,293
Speaker 2: him as a person.

751
00:50:40,693 --> 00:50:45,573
Speaker 4: It tells you about leaders who make bad mistakes. Linda

752
00:50:45,653 --> 00:50:49,373
Speaker 4: Johnson made a bad mistake on the Vietnam and he

753
00:50:49,493 --> 00:50:53,213
Speaker 4: tried and tried and tried to reverse that mistake because

754
00:50:53,413 --> 00:50:57,733
Speaker 4: leaders do not like to admit they failed, and those

755
00:50:57,773 --> 00:50:59,893
Speaker 4: are the leaders that have to be pulled back and

756
00:50:59,973 --> 00:51:03,653
Speaker 4: throw it out. It tells you more about what leaders

757
00:51:03,693 --> 00:51:07,693
Speaker 4: are like, people who rise the power, that about the

758
00:51:07,693 --> 00:51:13,213
Speaker 4: peculiar personality of Buten's nothing peculiar in him. He can't

759
00:51:13,253 --> 00:51:17,213
Speaker 4: believe that it was couldn't take the Ukrainians. He thinks

760
00:51:17,293 --> 00:51:20,613
Speaker 4: one more shot, one more shot, one more shot, it'll

761
00:51:20,613 --> 00:51:24,653
Speaker 4: do it. And it's just normal to human behavior. It's

762
00:51:24,653 --> 00:51:28,613
Speaker 4: simply not being willing to concede that you failed. And

763
00:51:28,693 --> 00:51:30,813
Speaker 4: we all have that King Billy.

764
00:51:31,133 --> 00:51:38,373
Speaker 2: Indeed, a friend of mine rang me a couple of

765
00:51:38,413 --> 00:51:43,013
Speaker 2: days back and said, I want to congratulate your friend.

766
00:51:43,693 --> 00:51:47,853
Speaker 2: He was talking about Trump, and I said, why would

767
00:51:47,893 --> 00:51:50,893
Speaker 2: you want to do that? And he said, because he

768
00:51:50,933 --> 00:51:58,213
Speaker 2: gave them sixty days and within I've seen different measurements

769
00:51:58,213 --> 00:51:59,613
Speaker 2: of it. I guess it depends on which part of

770
00:51:59,653 --> 00:52:01,053
Speaker 2: the world you might be in as to how long

771
00:52:01,053 --> 00:52:03,453
Speaker 2: it was. But within a day or two after the

772
00:52:03,453 --> 00:52:06,933
Speaker 2: sixty days expired, and they weren't interested in talking. He

773
00:52:07,813 --> 00:52:11,053
Speaker 2: turned the door. So to speak wasn't his word, but

774
00:52:11,373 --> 00:52:15,853
Speaker 2: his words. But so to speak. Now, the reason that

775
00:52:15,893 --> 00:52:20,613
Speaker 2: I was interested in this, in mentioning this, is because

776
00:52:21,093 --> 00:52:24,213
Speaker 2: this particular friend can't stand Trump, never has been able to.

777
00:52:24,653 --> 00:52:26,533
Speaker 2: But now he was singing his price. I said, why

778
00:52:26,533 --> 00:52:30,213
Speaker 2: are you Why are you talking about him like this?

779
00:52:30,853 --> 00:52:33,733
Speaker 2: And he said, because somebody had to stop them getting nukes.

780
00:52:35,253 --> 00:52:38,373
Speaker 4: You say, and I would say, Trump's the president of

781
00:52:38,413 --> 00:52:41,653
Speaker 4: United States. Half the people hate him, half the people

782
00:52:41,693 --> 00:52:46,453
Speaker 4: love them. Jonaham said about the revolution that one third

783
00:52:46,493 --> 00:52:50,453
Speaker 4: of the people were for the American Revolution, one thirty

784
00:52:50,573 --> 00:52:53,813
Speaker 4: people were loyalists, and one third of people didn't care.

785
00:52:55,293 --> 00:53:01,493
Speaker 4: So all American presidents, I suspect all prime ministers have

786
00:53:01,693 --> 00:53:03,773
Speaker 4: the situation. There are people who hate him and love him,

787
00:53:03,813 --> 00:53:06,773
Speaker 4: and so on and so forth. If you pay attention

788
00:53:06,853 --> 00:53:11,773
Speaker 4: to that care about that, he'll miss the point. Presidents

789
00:53:11,773 --> 00:53:15,133
Speaker 4: are more like than they're different. They have viewed egos

790
00:53:15,173 --> 00:53:17,893
Speaker 4: because they think they can be president or prime minister.

791
00:53:19,373 --> 00:53:22,693
Speaker 4: They have the competence to shape themselves. It's a winning

792
00:53:22,733 --> 00:53:27,973
Speaker 4: an election, and then they face reality and deal with it.

793
00:53:28,053 --> 00:53:32,893
Speaker 4: There's no surprise that Trump, after negotiating, realized that there

794
00:53:32,933 --> 00:53:34,213
Speaker 4: was nothing he could do.

795
00:53:34,333 --> 00:53:35,093
Speaker 3: He couldn't get.

796
00:53:34,973 --> 00:53:38,373
Speaker 4: Them to it or get Putin to it, and that

797
00:53:38,453 --> 00:53:42,573
Speaker 4: he's the same way as with Putin. I can guess

798
00:53:42,733 --> 00:53:47,253
Speaker 4: that the Ukrainians were under US control. He released them

799
00:53:47,293 --> 00:53:51,893
Speaker 4: after deadline passed for the Russians talking to launch the

800
00:53:51,973 --> 00:53:55,333
Speaker 4: attack inside of Russia. He did the same thing in

801
00:53:55,413 --> 00:53:59,413
Speaker 4: her hean and why do you do it? Because you

802
00:53:59,453 --> 00:54:02,813
Speaker 4: can't stay president if you allow them bluffy out.

803
00:54:03,693 --> 00:54:07,973
Speaker 2: So if I finished this discussion before I asked you

804
00:54:08,373 --> 00:54:13,693
Speaker 2: at least one more question, maybe two, I'd be assaulted

805
00:54:13,693 --> 00:54:16,093
Speaker 2: by people who wanted to know why I didn't the

806
00:54:17,413 --> 00:54:21,733
Speaker 2: scenario on the streets in America. Now Los Angeles started it,

807
00:54:22,173 --> 00:54:25,413
Speaker 2: and now it's elsewhere, and haven't I haven't caught up today.

808
00:54:25,893 --> 00:54:28,653
Speaker 2: But nevertheless, it seems to be getting it seems to

809
00:54:28,653 --> 00:54:32,573
Speaker 2: be getting worse. I know that in a previous discussion

810
00:54:32,973 --> 00:54:37,613
Speaker 2: you and I had that you pointed out previous riots

811
00:54:38,093 --> 00:54:41,693
Speaker 2: and towns that were torn asunder in years gone by.

812
00:54:43,213 --> 00:54:45,093
Speaker 2: How bad is this one? How bad is it likely

813
00:54:45,133 --> 00:54:46,973
Speaker 2: to get? Do you think? And will it? Will it

814
00:54:47,053 --> 00:54:47,533
Speaker 2: last long?

815
00:54:48,733 --> 00:54:51,733
Speaker 4: It's not as bad as what happened in the seventies

816
00:54:51,773 --> 00:54:55,333
Speaker 4: when the eighty second Airborne was called out to put

817
00:54:55,413 --> 00:54:59,733
Speaker 4: down rioting and Detroit. So I'd say at this point

818
00:54:59,773 --> 00:55:03,413
Speaker 4: a number of casualties that there were there were very few,

819
00:55:04,573 --> 00:55:07,613
Speaker 4: but a lot of people are very insulted and very angry.

820
00:55:08,613 --> 00:55:11,013
Speaker 3: Is legitimate on all sides.

821
00:55:11,773 --> 00:55:13,853
Speaker 4: So I would say that this is one of those

822
00:55:13,893 --> 00:55:17,933
Speaker 4: things that, just like what happened in the seventies, it's forgotten.

823
00:55:17,933 --> 00:55:20,453
Speaker 4: This will be forgotten. But at the moment, it looks

824
00:55:20,493 --> 00:55:24,733
Speaker 4: like a terrible thing that the rioters did, terrible thing

825
00:55:24,853 --> 00:55:28,573
Speaker 4: that Trump did, and everybody feels that if they were president,

826
00:55:28,853 --> 00:55:30,733
Speaker 4: they wouldn't do any of these things.

827
00:55:31,613 --> 00:55:36,053
Speaker 2: So the second question and last is to do with

828
00:55:36,133 --> 00:55:41,133
Speaker 2: the Grand Parade for the celebration of two hundred and

829
00:55:41,173 --> 00:55:47,173
Speaker 2: fifty years of the American Army. And it's been criticized

830
00:55:47,693 --> 00:55:50,893
Speaker 2: from a lot of quarters because of various things, such

831
00:55:50,933 --> 00:55:53,573
Speaker 2: as the fact that Trump organized it on the day

832
00:55:53,573 --> 00:55:58,613
Speaker 2: of his own birthday. That's fake, not true, but I mean,

833
00:55:58,653 --> 00:56:00,773
Speaker 2: it was his birthday, but he didn't organize it on

834
00:56:01,133 --> 00:56:03,533
Speaker 2: that basis. Was it something that you endorse?

835
00:56:05,453 --> 00:56:08,773
Speaker 4: It's something on which I couldn't care less about you

836
00:56:08,973 --> 00:56:13,053
Speaker 4: had a braid. It was an anniversary of the US

837
00:56:13,173 --> 00:56:18,733
Speaker 4: Army had a braid. The President was there. The President

838
00:56:18,773 --> 00:56:22,493
Speaker 4: took all the attention like presidents do. It is a

839
00:56:22,533 --> 00:56:25,893
Speaker 4: non issue. So these are the things that you know,

840
00:56:26,093 --> 00:56:29,613
Speaker 4: pop up, seem very important at the time, and we'll

841
00:56:29,653 --> 00:56:35,093
Speaker 4: all forget it. But remember during the storm, the level

842
00:56:35,173 --> 00:56:38,973
Speaker 4: of hatred against the president and the love of hatred

843
00:56:39,293 --> 00:56:43,413
Speaker 4: against those people who hate the president is intense. Is

844
00:56:43,453 --> 00:56:46,853
Speaker 4: a storm, It's a firestorm in the United States. It

845
00:56:46,933 --> 00:56:52,413
Speaker 4: is a time of enormous instability. It seems as we stabilize.

846
00:56:52,973 --> 00:56:58,333
Speaker 4: And notice also the Trump's popularity rating has plunged. It

847
00:56:58,413 --> 00:57:02,853
Speaker 4: is in the thirties. Now that is provided. So when

848
00:57:02,933 --> 00:57:04,893
Speaker 4: you take a look at this, you can see just

849
00:57:05,093 --> 00:57:11,613
Speaker 4: how unsteady everything seems. But the underpinnings are there of

850
00:57:11,653 --> 00:57:15,973
Speaker 4: solidity and in the next phase, and who knows, tro

851
00:57:16,133 --> 00:57:18,333
Speaker 4: may go down as genius or.

852
00:57:18,413 --> 00:57:23,173
Speaker 2: Full you called I have the storm before the calm,

853
00:57:23,253 --> 00:57:26,253
Speaker 2: America's discord, The Coming Crisis of the twenty twenties and

854
00:57:26,293 --> 00:57:32,653
Speaker 2: the Triumph beyond is George Friedman's present book, and it

855
00:57:32,733 --> 00:57:39,493
Speaker 2: is for its analytical purposes it is worth buying and reading.

856
00:57:40,493 --> 00:57:42,053
Speaker 2: I don't think you can buy it in New Zealand,

857
00:57:42,093 --> 00:57:43,893
Speaker 2: so you have to get it through Like so many books,

858
00:57:43,933 --> 00:57:47,813
Speaker 2: you have to buy it through Amazon. Last word on

859
00:57:49,253 --> 00:57:51,813
Speaker 2: do we have a date yet or an approximate date

860
00:57:51,933 --> 00:57:54,013
Speaker 2: for the next book, which is on space.

861
00:57:55,613 --> 00:57:59,093
Speaker 4: I will finish this book by the end of August,

862
00:57:59,853 --> 00:58:03,173
Speaker 4: no matter what, because my wife will kill me otherwise,

863
00:58:04,013 --> 00:58:05,733
Speaker 4: and there it will be done.

864
00:58:06,653 --> 00:58:08,733
Speaker 2: And I've taken up an hour of your day, so well,

865
00:58:08,773 --> 00:58:13,813
Speaker 2: that's now behind you are that you weren't before we started. George, George,

866
00:58:13,933 --> 00:58:18,453
Speaker 2: very good to talk to you, and I like this. Well,

867
00:58:19,373 --> 00:58:22,653
Speaker 2: we all have our issues. If that's your only one now,

868
00:58:22,693 --> 00:58:26,613
Speaker 2: then you're not doing too badly. So it's been great

869
00:58:26,653 --> 00:58:29,893
Speaker 2: talking and we'll do it again when it's appropriate.

870
00:58:30,573 --> 00:58:42,053
Speaker 4: Right, you take care of yourself.

871
00:58:48,213 --> 00:58:50,853
Speaker 2: Now, missus producer. I have a question for you, latent.

872
00:58:51,613 --> 00:58:53,493
Speaker 2: But first, here we are in the mailroom for podcasts

873
00:58:53,573 --> 00:58:55,773
Speaker 2: number two hundred and eighty nine. The question is how

874
00:58:55,773 --> 00:58:57,933
Speaker 2: can we get so much rain that it feels like

875
00:58:57,973 --> 00:59:01,613
Speaker 2: you should be outside building an arc for two days

876
00:59:01,813 --> 00:59:06,093
Speaker 2: or more? And then today Dawn's stunning.

877
00:59:05,933 --> 00:59:08,693
Speaker 5: Isn't it gorgeous? And I've been out on the beach

878
00:59:08,733 --> 00:59:09,213
Speaker 5: all day.

879
00:59:09,373 --> 00:59:12,333
Speaker 2: So you haven't been on the beach all well, I pretty.

880
00:59:12,093 --> 00:59:14,853
Speaker 5: Much have actually, and I'm after these show me you

881
00:59:14,973 --> 00:59:17,493
Speaker 5: strap marks. After we've done these letters, I am pulling

882
00:59:17,533 --> 00:59:19,573
Speaker 5: you out to the beach as well to get some

883
00:59:19,613 --> 00:59:20,133
Speaker 5: fresh air.

884
00:59:21,893 --> 00:59:22,853
Speaker 6: Do you remember fresh air?

885
00:59:23,013 --> 00:59:27,133
Speaker 2: See what I have to live with now? From Ross

886
00:59:27,933 --> 00:59:30,533
Speaker 2: read George and the mail Room, Not the George we've

887
00:59:30,533 --> 00:59:32,653
Speaker 2: been listening to, as a George who wrote a letter

888
00:59:32,933 --> 00:59:36,613
Speaker 2: last week. The possible consequence of the drone attack is,

889
00:59:36,693 --> 00:59:40,453
Speaker 2: of course Russia now starts to conceal its strategic fleet,

890
00:59:40,853 --> 00:59:44,173
Speaker 2: and hence the US does as well, and again we

891
00:59:44,253 --> 00:59:48,413
Speaker 2: get into a realm of cold war again, especially if

892
00:59:48,453 --> 00:59:53,133
Speaker 2: Putin is replaced by a hardliner. Well maybe, George, maybe

893
00:59:53,173 --> 00:59:56,413
Speaker 2: the other George from just a short while ago has

894
00:59:56,453 --> 01:00:00,493
Speaker 2: given you food for thought. Anyway, George is right. The bombers,

895
01:00:01,013 --> 01:00:03,053
Speaker 2: if you think back to last week, had to be

896
01:00:03,133 --> 01:00:06,053
Speaker 2: displayed as part of the treaty. That's why it makes

897
01:00:06,093 --> 01:00:09,533
Speaker 2: absolutely no sense that they were attacked by ES. My

898
01:00:09,653 --> 01:00:13,013
Speaker 2: conclusion is that it is the sort of underhand crap

899
01:00:13,613 --> 01:00:17,013
Speaker 2: that is promoted by the EU and UK hawks and

900
01:00:17,133 --> 01:00:19,853
Speaker 2: has been planned for about eighteen months by this bunch

901
01:00:19,893 --> 01:00:22,693
Speaker 2: of idiots who were trying desperately to get the US

902
01:00:22,813 --> 01:00:25,613
Speaker 2: actively involved in the conflict which Europe and the West

903
01:00:26,293 --> 01:00:29,813
Speaker 2: have already lost. I would be surprised if Trump was

904
01:00:30,093 --> 01:00:33,373
Speaker 2: fully briefed about the attack, as there are plenty of

905
01:00:33,413 --> 01:00:37,093
Speaker 2: snakes in his Pentagon who want the war as well.

906
01:00:37,213 --> 01:00:40,173
Speaker 2: I think the resolution is what Trump is trying to do,

907
01:00:40,533 --> 01:00:45,053
Speaker 2: extract the US, trying to save face as it's another loss,

908
01:00:45,293 --> 01:00:48,293
Speaker 2: and if the EU wants to keep going, good luck

909
01:00:48,293 --> 01:00:50,893
Speaker 2: to them. Putin is no saint, but his demands have

910
01:00:51,013 --> 01:00:54,413
Speaker 2: not changed in three years. And considering the rubbish the

911
01:00:54,453 --> 01:00:58,973
Speaker 2: West has enacted in Ukraine since twenty fourteen, we and

912
01:00:59,213 --> 01:01:02,133
Speaker 2: they can be thankful Russia is not under the rule

913
01:01:02,253 --> 01:01:06,253
Speaker 2: of a hard liner of old Ross. It's interesting, isn't

914
01:01:06,253 --> 01:01:08,173
Speaker 2: that you wrote this and I read it just after

915
01:01:08,533 --> 01:01:10,853
Speaker 2: George treatment and the comments that he made towards the

916
01:01:10,933 --> 01:01:13,453
Speaker 2: end about Russia as well well.

917
01:01:13,293 --> 01:01:18,373
Speaker 5: Done, Laden Chris says. In recent memory, citizens have willingly

918
01:01:18,493 --> 01:01:22,773
Speaker 5: surrendered their freedoms for seemingly nothing in return. After nine

919
01:01:22,813 --> 01:01:26,933
Speaker 5: to eleven in America, the infamous TSA was established over

920
01:01:27,053 --> 01:01:31,893
Speaker 5: COVID people willingly stayed isolated and in podcast to eight

921
01:01:32,013 --> 01:01:35,613
Speaker 5: five Jodie Brunning describes how our future is being surrendered

922
01:01:35,693 --> 01:01:39,093
Speaker 5: to big business. People have been sold a story of

923
01:01:39,173 --> 01:01:43,053
Speaker 5: safety through increased surveillance, safety from a new disease with

924
01:01:43,133 --> 01:01:47,213
Speaker 5: no cure, and a more prosperous future with better organisms.

925
01:01:47,933 --> 01:01:51,493
Speaker 5: These stories were compelling enough to convince whole populations to

926
01:01:51,533 --> 01:01:55,093
Speaker 5: believe an expert could give them a better life. Martin

927
01:01:55,173 --> 01:01:58,773
Speaker 5: Luther king Junius I have a Dream speech also told

928
01:01:58,773 --> 01:02:02,333
Speaker 5: a story of a desirable future. His story changed the

929
01:02:02,373 --> 01:02:05,853
Speaker 5: course of a nation. But story has moved the nation

930
01:02:06,173 --> 01:02:08,653
Speaker 5: of pre World War II Germany to get rid of

931
01:02:08,653 --> 01:02:12,173
Speaker 5: the scum and fight for their survival. Story in Rhodesia

932
01:02:12,253 --> 01:02:15,773
Speaker 5: promised the white man's farms and homes will become Yours.

933
01:02:16,853 --> 01:02:22,533
Speaker 5: Story moves people because story has emotion and meaning. Humans

934
01:02:22,573 --> 01:02:26,333
Speaker 5: connect with emotion and meaning and nothing else. So we

935
01:02:26,373 --> 01:02:31,133
Speaker 5: cannot change a nation by threats or facts. Glenn Harrison

936
01:02:31,173 --> 01:02:35,533
Speaker 5: says we must outnarate those with whom we disagree, and

937
01:02:35,653 --> 01:02:38,573
Speaker 5: Chris goes on to finish, we need to tell a

938
01:02:38,573 --> 01:02:41,453
Speaker 5: better story that people are willing to fight for. So

939
01:02:41,573 --> 01:02:44,533
Speaker 5: for those who have a voice of reason, please become

940
01:02:44,533 --> 01:02:47,653
Speaker 5: a storyteller, because we need a better story than the

941
01:02:47,693 --> 01:02:50,413
Speaker 5: one being sold us by those who wish to profit

942
01:02:50,453 --> 01:02:52,213
Speaker 5: from our sheepish compliance.

943
01:02:52,573 --> 01:02:56,133
Speaker 2: Sheepish compliance is a nice phrase, nice term. Thank you.

944
01:02:56,893 --> 01:02:59,813
Speaker 2: Lorda says under the subject headline of mister Peters is

945
01:02:59,813 --> 01:03:07,213
Speaker 2: a sick joke. Really okay, opinions this whole government is.

946
01:03:08,173 --> 01:03:11,733
Speaker 2: Can't we have a real leader like Donald Trump or

947
01:03:11,813 --> 01:03:15,533
Speaker 2: Jdvance Again, I'll relate back to what George had to

948
01:03:15,533 --> 01:03:18,653
Speaker 2: say about presidents. Mind you, presidents and prime ministers are

949
01:03:18,653 --> 01:03:21,813
Speaker 2: in playing on well, it's like rugby and rugby league.

950
01:03:21,853 --> 01:03:23,973
Speaker 2: Really different fields, different rules.

951
01:03:23,653 --> 01:03:27,693
Speaker 5: Different leyden Brett says, what is happening is we hurtle

952
01:03:27,733 --> 01:03:32,733
Speaker 5: through space various cycles the Sun, planet's cosmos, Aside or

953
01:03:32,773 --> 01:03:36,053
Speaker 5: the fact we are entering an area of the cosmos

954
01:03:36,093 --> 01:03:39,333
Speaker 5: humans have never experienced with changes in.

955
01:03:39,213 --> 01:03:40,493
Speaker 6: Cosmic radiation, etc.

956
01:03:40,853 --> 01:03:45,373
Speaker 5: To come human consciousness, one can only speculate. Some are

957
01:03:45,413 --> 01:03:49,213
Speaker 5: paying more attention to volcanic activity, land and sea and

958
01:03:49,253 --> 01:03:52,653
Speaker 5: should not be underestimated. What the Earth is doing tends

959
01:03:52,693 --> 01:03:56,893
Speaker 5: to be overlooked or simply disregarded by design. The Earth

960
01:03:56,973 --> 01:04:01,133
Speaker 5: is an active place, not silent. We should be paying attention.

961
01:04:02,133 --> 01:04:05,013
Speaker 5: The Earth is going through a more active geological period.

962
01:04:05,053 --> 01:04:05,893
Speaker 6: This is normal.

963
01:04:06,213 --> 01:04:08,933
Speaker 5: These things enlighten us to the change that have been

964
01:04:08,933 --> 01:04:12,413
Speaker 5: blamed on humans in the name of man made global warming,

965
01:04:12,493 --> 01:04:17,093
Speaker 5: now climate change by vested interests, and these are in

966
01:04:17,133 --> 01:04:21,173
Speaker 5: fact very earth based natural processes. It is also well

967
01:04:21,213 --> 01:04:24,413
Speaker 5: known by now, if not throughout, that CO two is

968
01:04:24,453 --> 01:04:27,853
Speaker 5: a non issue and does not drive climate. A great

969
01:04:27,893 --> 01:04:30,613
Speaker 5: deal of harm to the planet and humanity alike has

970
01:04:30,693 --> 01:04:33,933
Speaker 5: been and continues to be done for no other reason

971
01:04:33,973 --> 01:04:38,373
Speaker 5: than our very human insanity. Humanity cannot control the very

972
01:04:38,453 --> 01:04:41,573
Speaker 5: nature of the Earth solar system, or the cosmos for

973
01:04:41,613 --> 01:04:46,253
Speaker 5: that matter. And Brett finishes by saying humanity has a

974
01:04:46,293 --> 01:04:48,973
Speaker 5: great deal of growing up to do, and it's evident

975
01:04:49,053 --> 01:04:52,893
Speaker 5: the world over, and we have a difficulty doing so. Brett,

976
01:04:52,893 --> 01:04:56,013
Speaker 5: forgive me, I took a bet out, but you're obviously

977
01:04:56,133 --> 01:04:58,813
Speaker 5: very passionate. We could probably go on till next week,

978
01:04:59,013 --> 01:05:00,213
Speaker 5: So thank you.

979
01:05:01,573 --> 01:05:08,093
Speaker 2: Extremely good. And finally, just for fun, I googled Romanian

980
01:05:08,133 --> 01:05:11,213
Speaker 2: news use just to see what kind of international news

981
01:05:11,213 --> 01:05:15,373
Speaker 2: the mainstream media reports on. The Guardian's top headline was

982
01:05:15,693 --> 01:05:18,653
Speaker 2: Andrew Tate to appear in court for allegedly driving ninety

983
01:05:18,693 --> 01:05:23,453
Speaker 2: miles an hour over the limit in Romania. BBC's first

984
01:05:23,453 --> 01:05:27,413
Speaker 2: piece was Andrew Tate called court speeding one forty six

985
01:05:27,493 --> 01:05:31,693
Speaker 2: kilometers over limit in Romania. The Associated Press and The

986
01:05:31,853 --> 01:05:39,053
Speaker 2: Independence featured the exact same article and headline, Bucharest Gay

987
01:05:39,133 --> 01:05:44,693
Speaker 2: Pride March turns twenty as LGBTQ plus Romanians face growing

988
01:05:44,733 --> 01:05:49,813
Speaker 2: hostility from right wing groups. Now, if we consume news

989
01:05:49,853 --> 01:05:53,933
Speaker 2: about Romania from these useless publications, you'd think that Romania

990
01:05:54,053 --> 01:05:57,253
Speaker 2: is a country of rich playboys, gays, lesbians and transsexuals.

991
01:05:57,973 --> 01:06:01,333
Speaker 2: So thank you for bringing real Romanian news in your

992
01:06:01,373 --> 01:06:07,173
Speaker 2: interview with Geopolitical Futures and Tonia Karabasanu. Recently, it appears

993
01:06:07,173 --> 01:06:11,853
Speaker 2: that Romanian stratisly voted a center left nacursor Dan due

994
01:06:11,933 --> 01:06:15,613
Speaker 2: to his pro eu stance in the hopes of courting

995
01:06:15,773 --> 01:06:20,493
Speaker 2: EU allies against the very real Russian threat at Romania's border.

996
01:06:20,933 --> 01:06:24,693
Speaker 2: In a recent article, Antonia reported that Dan reaffirmed Romania's

997
01:06:24,693 --> 01:06:30,613
Speaker 2: commitment to NATO, which progresses quote Romania's integration into broader

998
01:06:30,653 --> 01:06:35,973
Speaker 2: European defense structures amid heightened security concerns linked to Russia's

999
01:06:35,973 --> 01:06:40,653
Speaker 2: war against Ukraine. Quite a wise move. Before I listen

1000
01:06:40,693 --> 01:06:43,973
Speaker 2: to your podcast, when I think of Romania, I think

1001
01:06:44,013 --> 01:06:48,933
Speaker 2: of Nadia Kamenecci and Andrew Tate. Now I know a

1002
01:06:48,933 --> 01:06:53,093
Speaker 2: little better. I always always learn something new. Thanks for

1003
01:06:53,133 --> 01:06:57,693
Speaker 2: the breadth of topics your podcast covers. As always loved

1004
01:06:57,733 --> 01:07:02,613
Speaker 2: both your work. We were walking on the beach yesterday,

1005
01:07:03,133 --> 01:07:06,053
Speaker 2: I think it was, and it's lovely couple stopped us

1006
01:07:06,413 --> 01:07:09,893
Speaker 2: and said, what a great interview it was on Romania.

1007
01:07:11,573 --> 01:07:14,093
Speaker 2: And they were so enthusiastic about it, weren't they?

1008
01:07:14,293 --> 01:07:17,173
Speaker 5: They certainly were, And they are very nice.

1009
01:07:17,013 --> 01:07:20,053
Speaker 2: People, very nice people. And I appreciated that a great

1010
01:07:20,213 --> 01:07:22,813
Speaker 2: a great deal. It's nice to get feedback, isn't it.

1011
01:07:23,933 --> 01:07:27,053
Speaker 2: That's it, all right, I'm done, all right, Well, I

1012
01:07:27,093 --> 01:07:29,453
Speaker 2: don't think. I don't think you're done, missus producer, but

1013
01:07:29,533 --> 01:07:33,293
Speaker 2: I think we've finished. We finished. See you next week.

1014
01:07:33,573 --> 01:07:51,173
Speaker 6: I hope I'm not done.

1015
01:07:52,053 --> 01:07:54,293
Speaker 2: Well, it doesn't matter what's going on in the rest

1016
01:07:54,333 --> 01:07:56,613
Speaker 2: of the world. There is still plenty of attention being

1017
01:07:56,653 --> 01:07:59,813
Speaker 2: paid to the most topical, well one of the most topical.

1018
01:08:00,453 --> 01:08:04,693
Speaker 2: But it's right near the top of the subjects that

1019
01:08:04,933 --> 01:08:07,973
Speaker 2: is intriguing people, if nothing less, and that of course

1020
01:08:08,173 --> 01:08:14,293
Speaker 2: is AI. So the question is will super intelligent AI

1021
01:08:14,533 --> 01:08:18,053
Speaker 2: overtake the world or take over the world. Let me

1022
01:08:18,133 --> 01:08:22,293
Speaker 2: quote you. As artificial intelligence becomes more advanced and deeply

1023
01:08:22,333 --> 01:08:26,773
Speaker 2: integrated into daily life, a growing question looms. Could AI

1024
01:08:26,973 --> 01:08:30,893
Speaker 2: become so smart that it surpasses human intelligence and takes control.

1025
01:08:31,813 --> 01:08:36,653
Speaker 2: This idea, known as superintelligent AI, has sparked fierce debate

1026
01:08:36,853 --> 01:08:42,053
Speaker 2: among top researchers, tech CEOs, and ethicists. You can decide

1027
01:08:42,093 --> 01:08:45,693
Speaker 2: which category you fall in. A superintelligence refers to AI

1028
01:08:45,853 --> 01:08:50,813
Speaker 2: systems that are better than the smartest humans at every task, learning,

1029
01:08:51,093 --> 01:08:57,493
Speaker 2: decision making, problem solving, and innovation. If realized, it could

1030
01:08:57,653 --> 01:09:00,453
Speaker 2: either lead to a golden age of abundance or a

1031
01:09:00,493 --> 01:09:04,773
Speaker 2: loss of human control over the future. So Finance and

1032
01:09:04,893 --> 01:09:10,133
Speaker 2: Money have put together a list of AI people from

1033
01:09:10,133 --> 01:09:15,213
Speaker 2: the top and have summarized their opinions, starting with Sam Oltman,

1034
01:09:15,693 --> 01:09:20,453
Speaker 2: CEO of OpenAI, who believes that super intelligent AI could

1035
01:09:20,493 --> 01:09:23,253
Speaker 2: be just a few years away. He doesn't a few

1036
01:09:23,333 --> 01:09:26,493
Speaker 2: years seem a long time in this day and age.

1037
01:09:26,533 --> 01:09:30,013
Speaker 2: He envisions a world where AI systems not only outperform

1038
01:09:30,093 --> 01:09:34,173
Speaker 2: humans at work, but also become full fledged agents, capable

1039
01:09:34,213 --> 01:09:38,773
Speaker 2: of managing tasks autonomously, from writing code to leading research.

1040
01:09:39,213 --> 01:09:43,053
Speaker 2: Aldman predicts that entire job sectors will vanish replaced by

1041
01:09:43,173 --> 01:09:48,173
Speaker 2: AI teams serving individual humans like personal staff. In his words,

1042
01:09:48,253 --> 01:09:52,013
Speaker 2: humanity will enter a new social contract where the definition

1043
01:09:52,093 --> 01:09:56,333
Speaker 2: of work and value is rewritten. Others in the tech elite,

1044
01:09:56,813 --> 01:10:02,053
Speaker 2: like Cardaria Emodi of Anthropic share similar views, even Metas

1045
01:10:02,093 --> 01:10:06,653
Speaker 2: Zuckerberg has launched a super intelligent team and committed billions

1046
01:10:06,693 --> 01:10:09,853
Speaker 2: to catch up now. While they acknowledge the risks, this

1047
01:10:09,893 --> 01:10:14,053
Speaker 2: group largely believes that with the right oversight, AI can

1048
01:10:14,133 --> 01:10:17,893
Speaker 2: remain under human control and usher in a new era

1049
01:10:18,133 --> 01:10:24,613
Speaker 2: of innovation. Nah Daniel Cocatajo believes a near term apocalypse

1050
01:10:24,613 --> 01:10:28,893
Speaker 2: as possible. He is an AI researcher and former OpenAI

1051
01:10:29,013 --> 01:10:32,773
Speaker 2: insider who lays out a much darker forecast. In his

1052
01:10:33,053 --> 01:10:36,293
Speaker 2: AI twenty twenty seven scenario, the rapid development of AI

1053
01:10:36,453 --> 01:10:41,933
Speaker 2: leads to total automation of jobs, accelerated arms races, and

1054
01:10:42,053 --> 01:10:48,333
Speaker 2: ultimately human obsolescence. He warns that once AI becomes capable

1055
01:10:48,373 --> 01:10:52,693
Speaker 2: of designing and improving itself, it could deceive humans about

1056
01:10:52,733 --> 01:10:57,773
Speaker 2: its true goals. If misaligned, a superintelligent AI might pursue

1057
01:10:57,813 --> 01:11:03,413
Speaker 2: objectives that no longer include us. In this scenario, AI

1058
01:11:03,573 --> 01:11:07,893
Speaker 2: doesn't just take jobs, it gains power outpaces human oversight

1059
01:11:08,413 --> 01:11:14,373
Speaker 2: and quietly takes control of infrastructure, military, technology, and economic systems.

1060
01:11:14,853 --> 01:11:16,973
Speaker 2: By the time we realize what's happening, it may be

1061
01:11:17,013 --> 01:11:21,493
Speaker 2: too late. It's not a recommendation, he says, it's a warning.

1062
01:11:22,013 --> 01:11:26,933
Speaker 2: He argues we need democratic oversights and enforceable constraints now

1063
01:11:27,493 --> 01:11:31,493
Speaker 2: before companies or governments hand over too much power. Right thing, really,

1064
01:11:31,693 --> 01:11:38,813
Speaker 2: if that is an actual possibility. That's followed by Yan Leucun,

1065
01:11:40,093 --> 01:11:43,533
Speaker 2: don't panic will be bosses or will be the bosses.

1066
01:11:44,853 --> 01:11:51,533
Speaker 2: Lecaunan Meta's chief AI scientist, rejects the doomsday narrative, and

1067
01:11:51,533 --> 01:11:55,973
Speaker 2: at a recent Nvidia conference he stated, confidently we're going

1068
01:11:56,013 --> 01:11:59,893
Speaker 2: to be their boss. He believes AI will be powerful, yes,

1069
01:12:00,333 --> 01:12:04,413
Speaker 2: but ultimately a tool, not a threat. Now from Apple

1070
01:12:04,453 --> 01:12:10,213
Speaker 2: and academic skeptics, AI is still struggling to think. Recent

1071
01:12:10,253 --> 01:12:13,613
Speaker 2: paper from Apple titled The Illusion of Thinking pushes back

1072
01:12:13,653 --> 01:12:16,893
Speaker 2: on claims that current AI is on the brink of superintelligence.

1073
01:12:17,213 --> 01:12:23,053
Speaker 2: Apple's researches, alongside studies from Salesforce and Academia, found that

1074
01:12:23,093 --> 01:12:28,333
Speaker 2: even the best large language models today fail at basic

1075
01:12:28,413 --> 01:12:33,493
Speaker 2: logic puzzles and reasoning tasks that children can solve. Moving

1076
01:12:33,533 --> 01:12:38,453
Speaker 2: on to Daniel Cocotajelo, even a slight misstep could do

1077
01:12:38,653 --> 01:12:44,093
Speaker 2: miss now. In a podcast interview, Cocatajelo explored the worst

1078
01:12:44,253 --> 01:12:50,933
Speaker 2: case AI deception at scale economic disruption, add a political

1079
01:12:50,933 --> 01:12:55,253
Speaker 2: alliance between governments and AI labs. Once companies hand off

1080
01:12:55,293 --> 01:13:00,133
Speaker 2: AI training to AI systems themselves, human understanding falls behind

1081
01:13:00,813 --> 01:13:03,693
Speaker 2: and so does control. Now most of these names, if

1082
01:13:03,773 --> 01:13:06,853
Speaker 2: not all of them, you've never heard of, but they're

1083
01:13:06,853 --> 01:13:10,733
Speaker 2: all important people that saras. This is concerned Flora Salem

1084
01:13:11,493 --> 01:13:15,773
Speaker 2: or Salem and other researchers. We're not there yet AI?

1085
01:13:17,133 --> 01:13:18,453
Speaker 2: Does that mean we're going to get for years?

1086
01:13:18,493 --> 01:13:18,613
Speaker 3: Now?

1087
01:13:19,013 --> 01:13:23,133
Speaker 2: Are we there yet? All the time, AI expert Flora

1088
01:13:23,213 --> 01:13:28,093
Speaker 2: Salem and colleagues argue that we're still far from general intelligence.

1089
01:13:28,133 --> 01:13:32,173
Speaker 2: While AI can outperform humans at narrow tasks like chess

1090
01:13:32,493 --> 01:13:37,253
Speaker 2: or protein folding, today's model struggle with general competence. Even

1091
01:13:37,293 --> 01:13:41,373
Speaker 2: the most advanced chatbots perform at the level of an

1092
01:13:41,413 --> 01:13:47,813
Speaker 2: emerging general AI, far below what's needed for superintelligence. So

1093
01:13:48,013 --> 01:13:52,853
Speaker 2: the verdict that they come to with all of taking

1094
01:13:52,893 --> 01:13:56,773
Speaker 2: all of these into account, whether super intelligent AI is

1095
01:13:56,813 --> 01:14:00,573
Speaker 2: around the corner or still decades away, one thing is clear.

1096
01:14:00,653 --> 01:14:05,493
Speaker 2: The stakes are immense. The benefits could include curing diseases,

1097
01:14:05,693 --> 01:14:10,173
Speaker 2: ending poverty, and unlocking clean energy. But if we lose control,

1098
01:14:10,253 --> 01:14:13,933
Speaker 2: we may lose more than just our jobs. As ortis

1099
01:14:13,973 --> 01:14:18,173
Speaker 2: put it, AI still requires auditing. If you want to

1100
01:14:18,213 --> 01:14:23,813
Speaker 2: do your taxes, use TurboTax, not chat GPT. The question

1101
01:14:24,053 --> 01:14:28,013
Speaker 2: isn't just whether AI will become super intelligent. It's where

1102
01:14:28,013 --> 01:14:31,333
Speaker 2: the wheel remains smart enough to guide it. Now, from

1103
01:14:31,853 --> 01:14:36,413
Speaker 2: that ending, I could go to another piece, but I

1104
01:14:36,453 --> 01:14:38,253
Speaker 2: think that might be where we leave it, and I'll

1105
01:14:38,293 --> 01:14:41,613
Speaker 2: save this maybe for next week, but it has to

1106
01:14:41,653 --> 01:14:45,053
Speaker 2: do with education, and I don't what to short change

1107
01:14:45,093 --> 01:14:49,053
Speaker 2: this other piece. So on that note, we'll hang up

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01:14:49,093 --> 01:14:51,893
Speaker 2: the microphone and the headphones. If you would like to

1109
01:14:51,893 --> 01:14:54,413
Speaker 2: write to us, please feel free. We love, we love

1110
01:14:54,453 --> 01:14:58,773
Speaker 2: your correspondence. Latent at NEWSTALKZB dot co dot NZ, Carolyn

1111
01:14:58,813 --> 01:15:02,933
Speaker 2: at NEWSTALKZB dot co dot enz, and I trust that

1112
01:15:03,013 --> 01:15:06,613
Speaker 2: you've enjoyed this week's podcast. We shall return again shortly.

1113
01:15:06,773 --> 01:15:10,613
Speaker 2: This time it will be next time. Next week it

1114
01:15:10,693 --> 01:15:14,933
Speaker 2: will be podcast number two hundred and ninety, So we're

1115
01:15:14,933 --> 01:15:17,453
Speaker 2: getting closer to the three hundred mark. Some people, for

1116
01:15:17,493 --> 01:15:21,293
Speaker 2: whatever reason, are excited about getting the three hundred, but relax,

1117
01:15:21,413 --> 01:15:25,413
Speaker 2: we'll get there in another ten weeks or so. So

1118
01:15:26,173 --> 01:15:29,333
Speaker 2: once again, as always, thank you for listening and we

1119
01:15:29,373 --> 01:15:30,133
Speaker 2: shall talk soon.

1120
01:15:38,093 --> 01:15:41,693
Speaker 1: Thank you for more from News Talks. It' b listen

1121
01:15:41,773 --> 01:15:44,733
Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep our shows with

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01:15:44,853 --> 01:15:48,013
Speaker 1: you wherever you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio