1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: Barry Sober, senior political correspondent, is with us. 2 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 2: Barry. Hello, good afternoon, Heather. 3 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Right, So Chris Luckson's spoken about the Tom Phillips shooting. 4 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 2: Well, you can imagine the beehive has been on the 5 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: phone to the police all day, Mark Mitchell, police minister. 6 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 2: I know you're going to be talking to him. After five, 7 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:20,760 Speaker 2: Chris Luson started his news conference off post cabinet, commenting 8 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 2: on it. Luxon has been briefed on the shooting. He 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 2: got briefed as soon as he got off a plane 10 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: this morning, and he reflected on how most New Zealanders 11 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: will be feeling at the moment. 12 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, very concerned, like all New Zealanders are. You know, 13 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 3: these are our children out there that actually we're running 14 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 3: out of daylight hours. Police have put assurship with a 15 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 3: huge amount of resources into the area. They're doing an 16 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 3: incredible job of trying to find these children as quickly 17 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 3: as possible. You know, that's obviously a big concern. But 18 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 3: also you know the foreign police officer as well, who 19 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 3: is going through obviously some serious surgeries as we talk, 20 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 3: you know, given the injuries that he's encountered. So you know, 21 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: our thoughts are in both those spaces. This is sad, 22 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 3: had an absolutely tragic event. I mean, this is not 23 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 3: what anybody wanted to happen today, and I think that 24 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: is a consistent feeling from everybody across news Land. You know, 25 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 3: we are used to seeing these stories from other parts 26 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 3: of the world, but not hearing his island. And it's 27 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 3: certainly very very sad and tragic day. 28 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: So it is. 29 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 3: Yeah. 30 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: Now, I wasn't surprised that order any Ky beat Penni Hena, 31 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: but I was surprised at how much of a smash 32 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: and she gave them. 33 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: Well, I've got to say I was surprised. I thought 34 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 2: Pennie Henade give him that he's represented that electorate for 35 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 2: some time. I think the fact that it was made 36 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: much of by the Maldi Party that win or lose, 37 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 2: Pennie Henada would be back in parliament anyway. I think 38 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 2: what they've got to do is now they've got to 39 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: school KaiA on how parliament works and that the Maori 40 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: Party have repealed nothing because they're not in power. They 41 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 2: can't do it. So you know, she's got a lot 42 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: to learn going into politics. But you know she won, 43 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 2: as you say, quite the although you'd have to say 44 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 2: in the electorate about less than a quarter of it 45 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 2: turning out the registered voters to vote, says something about 46 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: by elections in this country. 47 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: But I mean, if you were Labor looking at this outcome, 48 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: you would I think I'll be worried. You'd be coming 49 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: to terms of the fact that you are not going 50 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: to get any of those seats back in last election. 51 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: No, I'd be absolutely. I think what the Marori Party 52 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: have done very successfully. They're very much a protest party 53 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 2: and they've appealed to the young Mary I think in particular, 54 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: I think the older Marory they wouldn't be as convinced 55 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: as some of the young Mardy are. And what they're 56 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 2: doing is they're out appealing to that group. 57 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So what's been going on with Labor is 58 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: that they have been unsure quite how to do politics right, 59 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: some of them, Willie Jackson has want its attack to 60 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: the left to try to get the Marti seats back. 61 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: Now that they I mean, if they just accept the 62 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: situation you're not going to beat the Mary Party and 63 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: leave them to the Marty seats. Doesn't this leave them 64 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: with the other option, which is the smarter option, which 65 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: attack a little bit more to the right, try to 66 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: capture the center instead. 67 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: Well, yes, I mean Labor and National at one stage 68 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: were seen as almost inseparable. They were seen to parties. 69 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 2: But you know, in the last three years of the 70 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 2: Labor government they've moved very much to the left. So 71 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 2: you know, it's not now and it won't be seen 72 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: and come the next election as a center party, it'll 73 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: be seen much more to the left. 74 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: But so doesn't this because because there's a real struggle 75 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 1: going on in Labor between the people who want to 76 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: attack to the center and the people who want to 77 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: tack to left on the Maori issues in particular, doesn't 78 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: the strengthen the hand of those who want to go 79 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: to the center, like I think Chippy does. And actually 80 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: and by just saying to Willy Willy, you're not going 81 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: to win them, let it go. 82 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: Well yes, but it's not only the Maori Party, of course, 83 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 2: it's you know, other factions in the Labor Party as well. 84 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: You mean the Mardy caucus. 85 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 2: Well, you know the caucus, it's quite powerful in the 86 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 2: in the party. 87 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying is Chippy can say to the mate, 88 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: you have no power, You're not going to Winther. 89 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 2: He's got the influence to do that. There's another matter. 90 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's a very good point. I mean, this 91 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: is this is obviously idealistic. What did you make of 92 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: that opinion poll? 93 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: That's very interesting, isn't it that we see that if 94 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 2: there was an election tomorrow, which of course is not 95 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: going to be, but there would be a sixty sixty 96 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 2: one in terms of seat to the center left, so 97 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:27,239 Speaker 2: you'd have the Marlori Party in certainly in the mix 98 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: then for a coalition government led by Labor. But look, 99 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 2: I for the life of me can't see that these 100 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: poll numbers are going to hold up. I mean, Chris 101 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: Laxon in this poll, he got a bit of a 102 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 2: lift last month. One point five percent is preferred prime minister, 103 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 2: but still at twenty one point seven percent is very 104 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 2: very low. And if you look at the margins and these, 105 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 2: you know the margin of era is three percent. Well 106 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 2: we're talking when you say, you know the Labor Party 107 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: is ahead of the National Party, we're talking fractions of 108 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 2: a percent. So the margin of era is not even 109 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 2: considered when we're talking about this, which it should be. 110 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 2: That you can't really believe what the polls are telling 111 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 2: you at the moment. 112 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: Barry, thanks very much, appreciate it. Barry Soper, Senior political correspondent. 113 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy, Allen Drive, listen live to 114 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 115 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.