1 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Chioda. 2 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The US 4 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 2: and Israel are escalating attacks on Iran, which has launched 5 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:25,600 Speaker 2: counterattacks on neighboring Gulf states. All the while, the push 6 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: and pull on European leaders has been in the spotlight, 7 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: with Trump publicly chastising UKPM Serkia Stamer. That's due to 8 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 2: his refusal to offer up a British base for the 9 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 2: initial wave of strikes. Britain is scrambling to send a 10 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 2: warship to Cyprus after France announced a major deployment to 11 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 2: the Eastern Mediterranean. So with the involvement of the EU countries, 12 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: is it only a matter of time before the Pacific 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 2: is called up to help? Today on the Front Page, 14 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 2: University of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with 15 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 2: us to dissect what could happen next? So Robert President 16 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 2: Donald Trump says he is quote not happy with the UK. 17 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 2: He says the UK also took far too long to 18 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: allow its forces to use the base on the Chagos 19 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 2: Islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Starma has 20 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 2: told MPs his decision was informed by history, saying we 21 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 2: all remember the mistakes of Iraq. Was this a good 22 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: move on his part? 23 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: I think mister Starmer has reflected on the experience of 24 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: the previous Labor government and the problems it went through 25 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: in backing the US's illegal invasion of Iraq in two 26 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: thousand and three. And I think the other thing here 27 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: is there's no doubt about it, there's been a certain 28 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: coolness in relations between the Trump administration and the UK recently. 29 00:01:53,840 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: Mister Starmer initially took the view that being constructive or 30 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: flattering the president would moderate the president's policies and make 31 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 1: him a more cooperative partner. But I think after more 32 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: than a year in office, I think mister Starmer has 33 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: reached the conclusion that he can't simply do everything that 34 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: mister Trump wants, not least for domestic political reasons. Because 35 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: mister Trump is pretty unpopular in the UK across the 36 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: political divide. So no, I shouldn't say that he's quite 37 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: popular with the reform leadership that's led by Nigel frag 38 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: who's a great fan of mister Trump's. But I think 39 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 1: Starmer has said that, as you said in Senior Lead 40 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: Marks lead remarks he has reflected on the experience of 41 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: the Iraq episode and decided that Britain would have a 42 00:02:55,560 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: minimal role in this joint Israeli US attack air attacks 43 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: on Iran. So it depends how you define a mistake. 44 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: It certainly has probably added further distance between Washington and London, 45 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: but I think mister Starmer will weigh that against the 46 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: fact that if he got too close to Trump, particularly 47 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: with this military effort against Iran, he could run into 48 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: serious problems domestically and so not least with his own party. 49 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: So I think that's why he's kept his distance. Also, 50 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: you have to remember that mister Stalmer is a distinguished lawyer, 51 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: and most legal opinion is that this is an illegal 52 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: operation involving the US and Israel. Mister Starmer was the 53 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: country's chief prosecutor and that was why he was knighted. 54 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: He was regarded widely effective in that role, and that 55 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: doesn't mean as a lawyer he doesn't have political views, 56 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: but I think the legalities of this situation might have 57 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: weighed on him more heavily than others. 58 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 2: So Trump went on this tirade as he was in 59 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: the over Office meeting with the German Chancellor, and he 60 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 2: kept comparing Starmer to Winston Churchill. Why might he be 61 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 2: doing that? 62 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 1: Well, Winston Churchill was a very good wartime leader. And 63 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: the irony is, I'm surprised that mister Trump compared or 64 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: made an unfavorable comparison between Starmer and Churchill, because Churchill 65 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: will energetically opposed peacement peacement policies towards Hitler, and he 66 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: eventually was proven right. But mister Churchill spent most of 67 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: his nineteen thirties railing in frustration that the government of 68 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: the day, led by Neville Chamberlain, was trying to appease Hitler. 69 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: So Churchill was a robust, no nonsense sort of character. 70 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: Starmer is a smoother operator. I suppose the reference that 71 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: he the reference that mister Trump made was that Starmer's 72 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: no Churchill. Churchill is widely regarded in the United States 73 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: as a great wartime leader, and in which he was, 74 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: and he cemented the relationship with the United States. But 75 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't. It's a bit rich when mister Trump starts 76 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: questioning the moral fortitude of another political leader. After all, 77 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: he did not serve himself in Vietnam, and mister draft 78 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: by about five occasions because of he'll spurs or something. 79 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: And you know, mister Churchill was frustrated that the Americans 80 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: didn't enter the war till nineteen forty. He won two 81 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: years after it began. I think what he means by 82 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: another Churchill is that he wishes that mister Starmer was 83 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: more robust on confronting Iran. But yeah, I mean, it 84 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: seems to me that those historical parallels were often inaccurate, 85 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: and I think it could be from British people. Those 86 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: comparisons probably might even be considered a bit of an intrusion. 87 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 2: Really well, the comparisons really start falling apart as soon 88 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 2: as you start scrolling on Winston Churchill's Wikipedia page, I suppose, 89 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 2: and go past surface level reckons. But he's not the 90 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 2: only one that Trump's kind of set eyes on. He's 91 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 2: ordered the cutting of all trade with Spain after it 92 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: refused access to its military bases as well. Now Spain's 93 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 2: Pedro Sanchez has come out as Europe's chief critic of 94 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 2: the strikes. Why do you think that is? 95 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: Well, Sanchez takes international law very seriously and he's one 96 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: of the few European leaders that's actually consistent on Ukraine 97 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: and the situation in Gaza and now Iran. He believes 98 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: that with respect to a Ukraine, he vigorously opposes the 99 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: Russian invasion, and with respect to the occupied territories which 100 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: by according to the International Court of Justice, are unlawfully occupied, 101 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: he believes that the West should also be vigorous in 102 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: its opposition to those occupy occupation. With regard to the 103 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: bombardment of Iran, I don't think mister Sanchez had any 104 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: particular affection for the regime in Iran, but he takes 105 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: the view that international law matters. Let's be quite clear 106 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: about the mister Trump doesn't take international law seriously. It's 107 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: not me saying that's him. He said that his only 108 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: constraint will be his own conscience or his own sense 109 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: of morality, so he will not see international laws impediment. 110 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: But not all political leaders share that view, and particularly 111 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: middle powers, middle powers and small powers. Because rules are 112 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: there for the weak, they're not there for the strong. 113 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: We can understand why China, the United States, and Russia 114 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: gets frustrated by rules, which they see as an encumbrance 115 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: on their power, but for many other countries, rules actually 116 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: extend their sovereignty. They don't diminish it. And so I 117 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: think sanchez comment is that, and I think there's a 118 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: strategic dimension to this. I think the Spanish leader also 119 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: believes this could be strategically counterproductive, that attacking this repressive, clerical, 120 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: repressive regime in Terran, which has killed thousands protesters in 121 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: the most obscene way, you may actually be resuscitating it 122 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: by playing into its narrative. After Iran says it's surrounded 123 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: by enemies and in particular the Great Satan, the United States. 124 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: And the danger here is as the civilian casualties mount 125 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: in Iran, we know they've lost more than seven hundred 126 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: people already. The danger is, of course, that even those 127 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: Iranians critical or the regime may rally to the flag 128 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: as the country comes under continued onslaught. In other words, 129 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 1: as a danger, I think that the Spanish leader may 130 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: be alluding to that Israel and America hands a lifeline 131 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: to a regime which was on the ropes before this crisis. 132 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 3: I'm not happy with the UK either. That island that 133 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 3: you read about the lease, he made it for whatever reason, 134 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 3: he made a lease of the island. Somebody came and 135 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 3: took it away from him, and it's taken three or 136 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 3: four days for us to work out where we can land. 137 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 3: There would have been much more convenient landing there as 138 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised. 139 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. 140 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 2: I read a piece on the BBC this morning basically 141 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 2: about why perhaps European leaders have struggled so much to 142 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 2: find one voice on Iran and how difficult it is 143 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 2: for them to find a united one at that, and 144 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 2: I suppose they kind of alluded to the fact that 145 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 2: they're stopping short of questioning the legality most of them 146 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 2: of the attacks in the hopes that around won't become 147 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 2: a major distraction from Trump's quest to find a solution 148 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: to another war that is actually happening on their content, 149 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 2: and that's of course Ukraine. Why do you think that 150 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 2: the EU is struggling so much to come out as 151 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 2: a united front. 152 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: I think we've got to get this struggle in perspective. Chelsea. 153 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: There's twenty seven countries in the EU. I think twenty 154 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: five or reasonably on the same page. Two Hungary and 155 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: Slovakia are not and they both have quite close ties 156 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: with the Putin's Kremlin, So I think we have to 157 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: put that in perspective for one thing, and it's quite 158 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: difficult to get three countries to agree, let alone twenty five. 159 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: But I think most EU countries take the view, as 160 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: Mertz pointed out to mister Trump in their joint press conference, 161 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: that Ukraine's in territorial integrity must be preserved, that is, 162 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: Russia must not be allowed to keep any territory, which 163 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: was quite a sharp comment, and mister Trump took it well. 164 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: He didn't respond in a negative fashion. But mister Trump 165 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: has been throughout his presidency trying to come up with 166 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: a peace formula which rewarded mister Putin's invasion of Ukraine, 167 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 1: a sort of land for peace deal, that is to say, 168 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: he'll be allowed to keep much of the territory he 169 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: is illegally annexed from Ukraine. And mister Trump seems to 170 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: be quite relaxed about that. Well, the Europeans are not 171 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: relaxed about it, so there probably will be some tough 172 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: talking behind closed doors. The question which is interesting, which 173 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: you've raised, is that many Europeans, who are quite rigorous 174 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: and robusts on the Russian invasion, seem to struggle with 175 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: issues in the Middle East, where international law is also infringed, 176 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: and there seems to be a lack of consistency there. 177 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: One of the dangers of the current situation is that 178 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: many Europeans believe they may not like mister Trump's style 179 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: of doing things, but they think the regime in Iran 180 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: is so awful that any action that could remove that 181 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: regime would be good. But that assumes fus what. It 182 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: assumes there can be regime change, which is debatable given 183 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: there's no troops on the ground to change the country. 184 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: Airpower never achieved, very rarely achieves, if ever achieves a 185 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: change of regime. And I think that's dangerous thinking, because 186 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: it's not that the Iran's regimes should get special treatment. 187 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: Far from it. It should be regulously subject to international law. 188 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: But it's a bad precedent when countries simply believe they've 189 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: got the right to remove governments they don't like. Where 190 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: does that end? After all, mister Trump's already indicated quite 191 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: openly he's got designs on Canada and on Greenland, and 192 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 1: will European The muted reaction of European countries encourage him 193 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: to think that he can pursue that. I mean, these 194 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:02,599 Speaker 1: are real questions. So yeah, I Thinkpe the one of 195 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: the reasons it struggled with this issue, amongst others, is 196 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: because most people in the world regret that Iraq has 197 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: such a repressive regime and therefore, but I don't think 198 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: mister Trump is pursuing this action against the clerical regime 199 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: for reasons of human rights or to enforce humanitarian or 200 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: legal standards in. 201 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: Terms of what comes next. And I know that I 202 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 2: keep harping on about Europe, but I do find it interesting. 203 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: And like you said, the comparisons about their strong stance 204 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and now the 205 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 2: Iran strikes done by Israel in the US, I mean, 206 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 2: do you think that they will get because I know 207 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 2: that there's already been more military involvement from the European states, 208 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 2: right because Greece, France and Germany are all sending forces 209 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 2: to Cyprus after drone strikes. There is it when it 210 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 2: starts to im paid in their territory, it starts to 211 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: show up on their doorstep. Because Cyprus, if you look 212 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: at a map, isn't too far from European states. 213 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: That's true, and Europe has big connections with the Middle East. 214 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: I mean many European countries, France and Britain and others 215 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: have links with the region, and historically Britain has a 216 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: big responsibility there hasn't always lived up to that responsibility actually, 217 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean I think the British, I think 218 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: the European I hate to generalize, but I would say 219 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: that the European reaction or stance is that they don't 220 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: want They realize that Israel is a very close part 221 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: strategic partner of the United States, and they may sort 222 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: of prioritize their willingness to confront Trump. That is to say, 223 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: they may be much more prepared to dig in over 224 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian situation and I argue with him and actually 225 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: oppose what he's trying to do quite you know. But 226 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: they may think the Middle East, unless their interests are 227 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: directly affected, they may not want to be seen as 228 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: opposing US Israeli efforts there to change the regime in Iran. 229 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: They may think that that is of lower importance than 230 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: preventing Russia from expanding its occupation in Ukraine. 231 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 4: Would we would we support in the country, Well, I mean, 232 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 4: we obviously understand we're not We're not saying that. What 233 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 4: we're saying is that we we understand this. I don't 234 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 4: know how do any clearer guys. I mean, we've had 235 00:16:54,720 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 4: a long step sorry, we long supported actions under governments 236 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 4: under successive political parties that actually stop Iran from getting 237 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 4: nuclear weapons. 238 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 2: Now, when it comes to New Zealand and Australia potentially 239 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 2: being involved, neither New Zealand or Australia face automatic compulsion 240 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 2: to join US LED wars. When people think that they're 241 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 2: obligated to join in because we're all mates, I suppose 242 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 2: they might be referring to the a n Z US 243 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 2: andis packed which was suspended in the eighties. Anyway, but 244 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 2: do you think that we will get involved and do 245 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 2: we have any compulsion to be involved? 246 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: Well, it's an interesting question. The traditional allies of the 247 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 1: United States, such as the members of the Five Eyes, 248 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: they've all had a pretty muted reaction to what's happened, 249 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: and they've largely blamed Iran in their public statements for 250 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 1: these attacks, and most of them have ducked the question 251 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: of whether what the United States and doing is doing 252 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: and we'long with Israel is illegal. But despite that, there 253 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: is some differences between members of the Five Eyes. Interestingly, 254 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 1: Canada and Australia have both actually publicly expressed support for 255 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:25,159 Speaker 1: US actions in terms of preventing Iran threatening the region. 256 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: New Zealand has also acknowledged, not supported, acknowledged US and 257 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: Israeli efforts to prevent or deter the Israel Iranian threat 258 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: in the region. Subtle change in language, so there are 259 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: slight differences of emphasis amongst America's traditional allies. I don't 260 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: detect any great appetite amongst Australia, New Zealand, Canada, well, Canada. 261 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 1: That's Canada is an interesting one because Mark Karney has 262 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: caused some controversy in Canada by expressing support. The word support, 263 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 1: like Australia, appears in their public statement for US Israeli 264 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: efforts attacks on Iran. The reason I think it's interesting 265 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,920 Speaker 1: is because a while back, mister Karney made a speech 266 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 1: at Davos at the World Economic Forum, in which he 267 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: said he wouldn't give into great power bullying, and he 268 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 1: would not cave into such demands and that middle powers 269 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: and small powers are not powerless in the current global context. 270 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: So we now find mister Charani now finds himself in 271 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 1: a curious position because he's backing attacks by the Trump 272 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: administration against a sovereign state, Iran, while his own country 273 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: is periodically subject to threats of invasion from that administration 274 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: which is attacking Iran. So I have a feeling that 275 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: may have opened up a bit of a debate within 276 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 1: Canada and he may have to adjust his position. But 277 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: it's an interesting situation. 278 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, And we have as New Zealanders, we have had 279 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 2: a pattern of this low risk kind of involvement without 280 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 2: frontline combat in the past. I mean you remember that 281 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 2: Helen Clark refused to send any combat contributions to Iraq 282 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 2: despite a lot of pressure actually from allies. Do you 283 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 2: expect this government to be steadfast as steadfast as I 284 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 2: think they'll be pragmatic. 285 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they'll be pragmatic. I think this government's 286 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:41,439 Speaker 1: deeply pragmatic. The government doesn't always it is not certainly 287 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 1: the National Party section of the government's the coalition, of course, 288 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 1: which means that sometimes they disagree over foreign policy. But 289 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: I think the National led part of the government has 290 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: reservations about Trump's leadership, but is pragmatic. It's to be 291 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: constructive and work with the administration where they can. The 292 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: question I suppose for New Zealanders is we often think 293 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: of ourselves as a brave little country that, in mister 294 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: Luxeon's words, is prepared to stand up and speak up 295 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: for its values and interests internationally. Are we doing that 296 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,959 Speaker 1: on this occasion and will it have consequences? Because one 297 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: of the dangers of not vigorously supporting a rules based 298 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: order based on multilateralism and international law, which we depend 299 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: on heavily. With New Zealand trades with more one hundred 300 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: countries around the world. We need rules in place. We're 301 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: not big enough to make our own rules or throw 302 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: our weight around. The danger is that by being muted 303 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: and not having moral and legal clarity in this situation 304 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 1: where a number of people are dying on a daily basis, 305 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: that we contribute to the further erosion of an international 306 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: rules based order in which this country depends. 307 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Robert. 308 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 1: Thank you. 309 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 310 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 311 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 2: at enzidherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is 312 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 2: hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is 313 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 2: our studio operator Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and 314 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 2: our executive producer is Jane Ye. Follow the front page 315 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 2: on the iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts, and 316 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 2: join us next time for another look beyond the headlines.