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Speaker 1: Together dup c Ellen.

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Speaker 2: Unemployment. Let's talk about that it has hit five point

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Speaker 2: three percent. This was of course expected. It is now

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Speaker 2: at its highest level since twenty sixteen. Nick Brunsdon is

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Speaker 2: Infametrics principle economist and with us, now, hey, Nicky, Heather,

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Speaker 2: we hit the peak.

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Speaker 3: We think we're hit the peak. Yeah, so it did

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Speaker 3: creep up this quarter, but that was to be expected.

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Speaker 3: And we've got a few positive signs, a few very

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Speaker 3: small green shoots that might give us confidence that we

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Speaker 3: have at the peak.

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Speaker 2: There is a feeling it might go up, just tack up,

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Speaker 2: just marginally in this quarter still to five point four.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree or disagree?

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Speaker 3: I think it's possible, but I think we've got a

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Speaker 3: few We've had a number of good signs. We've had

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Speaker 3: two or three months of job growth, We've had two

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Speaker 3: or three months of job ad growth.

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Speaker 1: So there's signs out there that things are getting better.

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Speaker 3: And when we look into the numbers today, we say

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Speaker 3: that employers are kind of holding on to staff, they're

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Speaker 3: keeping their paid hours up even if the work's not

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Speaker 3: quite there, and so that says that ultimately employers see

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Speaker 3: see growth around the corner.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there is also some talk of the fact that

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Speaker 2: it will sit at this kind of higher, this elevated

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Speaker 2: level for a but even possibly over five percent for

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Speaker 2: a while, like as in for another year.

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Speaker 3: Do you agree, Yeah, I think something like that. Expected

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Speaker 3: our forecasters for it to four point six by the

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Speaker 3: end of next year. And you know, that's not a

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Speaker 3: low unemployment rate by any means. It's still going to

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Speaker 3: be pretty uncomfortable.

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Speaker 2: And then when does it finally return to what we

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Speaker 2: would consider kind.

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Speaker 1: Of normal levels. That could be two or three more years.

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Speaker 3: I think the thing is that we are starting to

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Speaker 3: recover or on the cusp of the recovery, but it's

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Speaker 3: not going to be a quick one. And so for

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Speaker 3: those that are in a job, it's quite a positive picture,

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Speaker 3: and for those that are not in a job, it's

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Speaker 3: a pretty ugly picture that it's going to take a while.

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Speaker 2: What are you reading into that underutilization rate.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what we'd expect.

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Speaker 3: It is a tough labor market, and people realize that

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Speaker 3: they can't you know, they're not going to get the

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Speaker 3: hours that they want, and it's going to be really

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Speaker 3: hard to get the job that they want, and so

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Speaker 3: they are they are struggling to get what they need

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Speaker 3: out of the labor market.

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Speaker 2: Ultimately, yeah, hey, listen, thank you very much like a

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Speaker 2: she had a Nick Brunsdon Informetrix principal economist. For more

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Speaker 2: from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks

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Speaker 2: it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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