1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: So of course the question now is how are key 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: We's going to feel when New Zealand starts getting cozy 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump. Former Prime Minister Helen Clarke this morning 4 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,399 Speaker 1: when the radio suggested the government might want to rethink 5 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:12,399 Speaker 1: its moves to get even closer to the US. 6 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 2: But given the general feeling in the New Zealand public 7 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 2: towards the election of President Trump, I can't think that 8 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,639 Speaker 2: it would be a popular thing to do to be 9 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: seen to be st strategically realigning with an administration which 10 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: is volatile and quite unpredictable on foreign policy. 11 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Miller is a geopolitical relations expert at Victoria University 12 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: and with US. Hey Jeffrey, welcome back. 13 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 3: Good evening. 14 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 1: Heather has Helen got a point. 15 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 3: Look, I think everything will be on the table here 16 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 3: and we're going to have a new US administration that 17 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 3: always means a reset. So it's a big question whether 18 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 3: the US will be keen to go through with orcus 19 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 3: under Donald Trump. Remember this was a Biden initiative, so 20 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: you know, everything is on the table from both sides. 21 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 3: If it is going ahead, will they want New Zealand 22 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 3: still involved in Pillar two? And will New Zealand want 23 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: to be involved. If you're Christopher Luxon and the centrist 24 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 3: trying to position your position yourself, you know, to capture 25 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 3: that center middle ground. Do you want to be associated 26 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 3: with Donald Trump? I mean there are huge numbers of 27 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 3: questions here for New Zealand when it comes to foreign policy, 28 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 3: it's really big. 29 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: Let's look at what Trump's calculation might be so on orcus. 30 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 1: The thing that he will like about UCUS is that 31 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: it is aimed at China, which he doesn't like. But 32 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: then the thing he will not like about UCUS is 33 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: the cost of the thing, right, So how does that 34 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: play out? What do you reckon? Ways? Bigger, stronger on him? 35 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: That's right. And Donald Trump is very very transactional. So 36 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 3: if he thinks it's a good deal, if it's in 37 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 3: the interest of the United States, perhaps he will go 38 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 3: through with it. If he doesn't think that the US 39 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 3: is getting a good deal, he'll make the likes of 40 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: Australia the United Kingdom pay up a lot more. I 41 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 3: just think it really remains to be seen whether if 42 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 3: UCAS is continued with, whether he will want to have 43 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 3: a bit player as he might see it in New 44 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 3: Zealand getting involved. You know, this was the strategy. You 45 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: had this lattice work of all these agreements across the Pacific, 46 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 3: and Joe Biden was very interested in climate change in 47 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 3: the Pacific and re engaging with Pacific island countries. I 48 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 3: think Donald Trump is all about great powers, and if 49 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 3: he wants to stick at the China, he simply will. 50 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 3: He will do it unilaterally. He won't feel the need 51 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 3: to set up all of these multilateral alliances. It will 52 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 3: continue with them, with the likes of New Zealand necessarily, 53 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 3: but you know, we will have to see how things develop. 54 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: Of course, Winston Peters is putting a brave face on things, 55 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 3: and he has some good connections. He was Foreign Minister 56 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 3: of course the last time that Donald Trump was in 57 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 3: the White House, so there may be some chances there 58 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 3: for him to use his connections. And he was on 59 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 3: your program yesterday talking about that. So you know, we 60 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 3: let's wait and see. 61 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: Did I hear him saying that we got very close 62 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 1: to an FTA with the US under Trump. 63 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:51,959 Speaker 3: I did hear that? 64 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: Unbelievable. 65 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 3: I wonder where that's really come from. I don't really 66 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 3: recall that really being on the table. Donald Trump pulled 67 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 3: out of the CPTPP pretty much on his first day 68 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 3: in office back in twenty seventeen. So I think it's 69 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 3: hard to believe that really there was a bilateral free 70 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: trade deal for New Zealand in the off and back 71 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 3: during Trump's first term. But yes, Winston Peters are trying 72 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 3: to put a brave face on things. He's really put 73 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 3: everything in the basket of building closer ties with the 74 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 3: United States. He did that the last time around. He's 75 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: been doing this for the last year, and Christopher Luxen 76 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 3: and the government has really very much gone along with that. 77 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: It's been a huge sea change when it comes to 78 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 3: New Zealand foreign policy given that New Zealand's biggest trading 79 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: partner is China, and neither Christopher Luxeen nor wus St 80 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 3: Peter's have visited China yet in the past year. It's 81 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 3: quite striking the longer that goes on that they haven't 82 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 3: made that trip to China. Tom McClay is there at 83 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 3: the moment, but there will be a chance next week 84 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: for both Christopher Luxen and wins Peter's to reconnect with 85 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: their Chinese counterparts if they choose to do so at 86 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 3: Apec in Peru and Christopher Luxin could shake hands, perhaps 87 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 3: have a bilateral meeting with Jujumping, and if that's on offer, 88 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 3: I think he should take that opportunity because things are 89 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 3: going to get pretty tough with ten to twenty percent 90 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 3: tariffs from the United States if that does come in. 91 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: So there are lots of opportunities, lots of other countries 92 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 3: that New Zealand could work with. In China really is 93 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 3: the big one. 94 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 1: Do you think that Chris Luxen will get a bit 95 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: get the ick about having to get too close to 96 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump? 97 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the calculations were very different from Winston 98 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 3: Peters and Christopher Luxe. And Winston Peters, I think we'll 99 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 3: be quite happy to work with a Trump administration. When 100 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 3: Jacinda R. Durn had a meeting with Donald Trump at 101 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 3: the UN General Assembly back in twenty nineteen, he described 102 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 3: it as a triumph. He put out a special press 103 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 3: release about it. I don't think that Christopher Luxen would 104 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: necessarily see things in the same way. You know, Christopher 105 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 3: Luxen is positioning himself as the big centrist, and you know, 106 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: I don't think that Luxeon will necessarily be that keen 107 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: to be associated with Donald Trump. Peter's I think will 108 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 3: be so, you know, it could be quite interesting domestically 109 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 3: here whether that leads to some divides and the coalition 110 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: over the direction of New Zealand foreign policy. You know, 111 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 3: it really will be very interesting whether this pro us 112 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 3: stance continues. That's been very much the theme of the 113 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: past year. But I just think everything is going to 114 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 3: be on the table right now, and everything's going to 115 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 3: be up for debate August and everything really because of 116 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 3: Donald Trump coming into the White House is going to 117 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 3: look like a very different It's going to be a 118 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 3: very different administration to the Joe Biden administration. 119 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: Your job very fun, Jeffrey, Thank you very much for 120 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: your time. Jeffrey Melodio, political relations expert at Victoria University, 121 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: is making everybody's job run. Frankly, if your politics adjacent, 122 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: it's fascinating. 123 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 3: Now now All Birds For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. 124 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 2: Listen live to news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, 125 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 2: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.