1 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: Prissing the newsmakers to get the real story. 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 2: It's hither, dupless Ellen, drive with one New Zealand let's 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:09,959 Speaker 2: get connected. 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 3: You s told ZIDB. 5 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: They're eating the dogs, the people that came in. They're 6 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: eating the cats, they're eating they're eating the pets. 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 4: When we listen to this kind of rhetoric, when the 8 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 4: issues that affect the American people are not being addressed, 9 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 4: I think the choice is clear in this election. 10 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: She wants to confiscate your guns and she will never 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: allow Frakin. 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 4: In Pennsylvania, people start leaving his rallies early out of 13 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 4: exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you the one 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 4: thing you will not hear him talk about is you. 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: All I can say is I read where she was 16 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 3: not black. 17 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: I'll say that, and then I read that you was black, 18 00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: and that's okay. 19 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 4: I intend to be a president for all Americans and 20 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,040 Speaker 4: focus on what we can do over the next ten 21 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 4: and twenty years to build back up our country by 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 4: investing right now in you, the American people. 23 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: What these people have done to our country and they're 24 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,479 Speaker 1: destroying our country. The worst president, the worst vice president 25 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: in the history of our country. 26 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: So Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are faced off in 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 2: their first presidential debate. Now, Alan Lickman is the name 28 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 2: many will know. He's correctly predicted almost every US election 29 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: outcome in four decades. He was watching the debate, Alan. 30 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 3: Hallow, Hello, so good to speak with you. 31 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 2: It's very good to talk to you. Was there an 32 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 2: obvious winner there for you? 33 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 3: Oh? I thought it was crystal clear that Harris was 34 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 3: the winner, not that she was so great. She was good, 35 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 3: maybe very good. Trump was abysmal. He got baited by 36 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: Harris time and time again to get off focus, talk 37 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 3: about crowdsized people leaving his crowd the Central Park five 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 3: and you know when he was really right in calling 39 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 3: for their execution. You know, his handlers had been constantly 40 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 3: telling him focus on the economy. Tell us, you know, 41 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 3: your plans for the economy wasn't there. And you know, 42 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 3: no matter what the question was, he went off and 43 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 3: off and on about immigration. You know, he was even asked, 44 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 3: you know, for nine years you said you're going to 45 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 3: come up with a healthcare plan concepts. How are you 46 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 3: going to end the Ukraine War? He didn't have an answer. 47 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 3: How are you going to deport eleven to twelve million 48 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 3: undocumented immigrants. It's not as if they all live in 49 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 3: communities with a big sign undocumented immigrants live here. They're 50 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 3: mingled in with the general population. You'd have to demand 51 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 3: proof from tens of millions of Americans. No answer to that. 52 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 3: And I think the one thing that people will remember 53 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: from Trump, because it was so off the rails, so insane, 54 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: is this idea of immigrants eating people's pets. People can 55 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 3: relate to that. You know, the details of policy can 56 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 3: go over people's heads, but people know just how nutty 57 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 3: and how crazy that was. And you know, Trump spoke, 58 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 3: had a lot more speaking time than Harris, but you 59 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 3: know it was it was rambling and off topic. He finally, 60 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 3: in the last few seconds of the debate made a 61 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 3: very strong point, and that is, all right, you've got 62 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: all these wonderful plans. Why haven't you implemented them in 63 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 3: the three and a half years you're in office? That 64 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 3: can't you know, in the eleventh hour and fifty ninth 65 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 3: minute of the debate, and you know, just got lost. 66 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: That would have been a very good theme instead of 67 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: all this off topic stuff for Trump to develop. 68 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 2: Mean, I thought, Ellen, you make some very good points 69 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 2: but do you think this is going to change anybody's vote. 70 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: If you love Kramel, you're going to stick with Camelon. 71 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 2: If you love Trump, You're going to stick with him, 72 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: aren't you. 73 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 3: That's not true. First of all, I made my prediction 74 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 3: deliberately before this debate that Harris would be the first 75 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 3: women president of the United States because I did not 76 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 3: believe events of the campaign influence the outcome. And certainly 77 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 3: there was nothing about this debate that would shake the 78 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 3: prediction that before the debate, right, So in that sense 79 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 3: I thought it. You know, it was important that Harris 80 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 3: didn't have a complete meltdown, and far from it. You know, 81 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 3: the much more of a meltdown was by Trump. 82 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think that was the point I was 83 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 2: trying to make. The debate is not really going to 84 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 2: change anyone's mind, is it. I want to ask you 85 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: though about your keys, Ellen, because this is particularly fascinating 86 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 2: this time around your third key of your thirteen, which 87 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: is about incumbency. You are considering Kamala Harris not the incumbent. 88 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: But this is a little bit tricky this time, right, 89 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 2: because she's not the incumbent, but she's tied to the incumbent, 90 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: isn't she Well. 91 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 3: We've had vice presidents running before. George J. W. Bush, 92 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 3: Robert Reagan's vice president ran in nineteen eighty eight, Richard Nixon, 93 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 3: Dwight Eisenhower's vice president ran in nineteen sixty. They don't 94 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 3: get the key. The key is binary. The sitting president 95 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: is running is needed to turn that key in favor 96 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 3: of the incumbent. I don't freelance. I don't attempt to 97 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 3: second guess. If you're going to use my system, you've 98 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 3: got to stick to how the keys are defined and 99 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 3: not try to put your own gloss on them. If 100 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 3: you want to do that, develop your own system. I 101 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 3: welcome it. 102 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 2: Ellen. Also, am I reading this right? But you do 103 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 2: not consider either of these two to be charismatic. 104 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 3: That's correct. And again, don't get hung up on the word. 105 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 3: You've got to read my book Predicting the Next President, 106 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 3: which I carefully define the meaning, and that is to 107 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: win this key if you're the incumbent, or to turn 108 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 3: it against the incumbent of the challenger, you have to 109 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 3: be one of those once in a generation inspirational, transformational candidate. 110 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 3: Across party lines, the iconic examples are Franklin Roosevelt and 111 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 3: Ronald Reagan. What if you may think of Harris, He's 112 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 3: not a Franklin Roosevelt. Now we know Trump is a showman, 113 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 3: but he doesn't fit the definition of the key because 114 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 3: he only appeals to a narrow base. Unlike Reagan or FDR, 115 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 3: who won six elections and landslides, Trump lost the popular 116 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 3: vote in two elections combined by ten million votes, and 117 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 3: his approval rating in four years as president was forty 118 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 3: one percent, right at the bottom historically of all presidents. 119 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 3: So appealing to a narrow however much you do so, 120 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 3: does not fit the definition of the key. 121 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: Alan, it's good to talk to you, really respect you work. 122 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. It's Alan Lickman, us historian who 123 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: is predicted, as I said earlier, almost every single US 124 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 2: election correctly in the last four decades. 125 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 3: For more from hither Duples see Alan Drive. 126 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 2: Listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, 127 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 2: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.