1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Good afternoon. The Iranian government is warning the United States 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: might be about to launch a ground invasion of Iran. 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: Trump isn't exactly denying it. He told the Financial Times 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: they may attempt to take carg Island, but they have 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: got lots of options. Apparently. Gil Barndolla is a former 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: US Marine and senior fellow at Defense Priorities and with 7 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: US High Gil, how are you. I'm very well, thank you. 8 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: Now those troops, the thousands that he's sent in. Is 9 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: this him planning a ground invasion or is this a 10 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: threat hanging over the piece talks quite deliberately, you know, 11 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: I think. 12 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: It could be either. I would maybe cash ground invasion 13 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: in the sense of there's nowhere near the US footprint 14 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: the amount of troops needed to conquer, run, or replace 15 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: the regime by force with ground troops. That we're talking 16 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: about more like a raid or seizing something as a 17 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 2: bargaining chap, or potentially trying to use ground troops to 18 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: help open the straight or moves something pretty small, if 19 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 2: not episodic. 20 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: How would you use ground troops to open the strait? 21 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 2: Well, they could seize kesh And Island or some of 22 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: the other smaller islands. In straight and use those to 23 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: kind of facilitate naval forces. But I don't think that's 24 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: going to solve your problem single handedly, you know, given 25 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: the amount of coastline, given Iranian capabilities, you know, their 26 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 2: ability to mine the straight is you know, mostly a 27 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: dog that hasn't barked yet, but that's a big one. 28 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: And there are all kinds of both, you know, unmanned 29 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 2: systems and missiles they can use to put I think 30 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 2: enough of a threat, you know, towards tankers and civilian 31 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 2: ships that they are going to be reluctant to to 32 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: pass through the strait as we've seen to date. 33 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: Yeah, it sounds like Iran has booby trapped cargo Island 34 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: as well. So is that I mean, would that be 35 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: a realistic consideration given the dangers there now? 36 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think that's that's a pretty daunting 37 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 2: prospect militarily either way. I mean it's it's you know, 38 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 2: you look at them at for two seconds and it's 39 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 2: way up in the kind of northern end of the 40 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: Persian Gulf, so you know, really pretty close to the 41 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 2: Kuwait actually. So to get up there, you've got to 42 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,279 Speaker 2: do one of two things. You've either got to sail, 43 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: you know, if not more probably more like eight to 44 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: ten naval vessels through the Straight of War moves into 45 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 2: into the narrow waters of the Persian Golf to do 46 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 2: an amphibious landing, or you've got to be willing to 47 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 2: either you know, air drop is in paratroopers or air 48 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: assault is in land helicopters, you know, several hundred miles 49 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: up the Persian Gulf, which you know, that's a that's 50 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: a dicey undertaking too. So it can certainly be done, 51 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: but it's it's a pretty high risk operation to do. 52 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: And why would they do it because it doesn't open 53 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: up the straight because as you say, it's kind of 54 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: at the opposite end of where the pinch point is. 55 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: So is this just about choking off the income to Iran? 56 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's you know, it's this sort of if 57 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: it happens, I think it's it's driven by the idea 58 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: of you know, sort of a Donald Trump deal maker 59 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 2: pressure point kind of kind of mindset that you would take. 60 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: You take the port and the facility that ninety percent 61 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 2: of the oil goes out through, as well as you know, 62 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 2: whatever amount of oil is there right now, and use 63 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: that as a bargaining chip to to induce them to 64 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: open the straight I'm skeptical about the prospects of that 65 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 2: working it certainly in the short term, but that would 66 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: be the proposition. 67 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: And if something like this was to happen, right, if 68 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: any of those troops were to put boots on any 69 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 1: kind of Iranian ground, how long is this dragging out 70 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: this conflict for? Because I mean we were talking last 71 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: week about the thing potentially drawing to a close. 72 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's completely unknowable. Would I would just 73 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: say that my view is that is it Keeping troops 74 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: on Iranian soil any of those places is going to 75 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 2: be a pretty tricky proposition. Is not going to be 76 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 2: a lot of fun in the United States because you're 77 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: going to have you're gonna have a logistics problem just 78 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,839 Speaker 2: keeping them resupplied. And it only you know, it only 79 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: gets worse, it gets harder. I mean the Persian golf 80 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 2: I've been there late spring, early summer, and it only 81 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 2: gets harder and becomes more of a logistical issue from 82 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: a medical standpoint, from a water and a supply standpoint, 83 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: to reach any kind of force, never mind taking casualties 84 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 2: and everything that comes with that. 85 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: All right, listen, Gil, it's always good to talk to you. 86 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for the time this Gill ban Dollar, 87 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: former Marine senior fellow at Defense Priorities. 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