1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Our old friend Adrian Ors decided Trump will be slightly 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: inflationary he announced yesterday, and that peak trade globally he 3 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: speaks of, is over. And I think on both counts 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: he's probably right. He's not right. He wasn't right this 5 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: week on the jobs when he thought they would be 6 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: five percent by way of unemployment, and I don't think 7 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,240 Speaker 1: he's right when he talked in his fiscal risk report 8 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: this week that more jobs will lead to more mortgage 9 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: defaults on housing. If we've learned one thing out of 10 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: this whole mad COVID experiment, it's that New Zealand is 11 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 1: in our relationship with housing is something out of the box. 12 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: It's obsessive. If we don't believe it's a right to 13 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: own a house, it's certainly on the old to do list, 14 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: and we work awfully hard to make it happen. And 15 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: having made it happen, we ain't letting go easily, which 16 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: is why the mortgage cliff never happened. All the doom 17 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: and misery around all the houses that would be foreclosed 18 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: on never came to pass. So a few more job 19 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: losses isn't going to add to the calamity that never 20 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: happened in the first place. An interesting question to ask, 21 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: I think, is whether Adrian's conservatism has and indeed continues 22 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: to hold this country back. He's got a just in 23 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: case feel about him. Don't you think the amount that 24 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,319 Speaker 1: banks have to keep aside for things that so far 25 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: haven't happened, the jobs that might be lost, that, in 26 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: fact weren't the money all the banks needed for free 27 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: during COVID, so they could spray it about the place 28 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: to protect a lot of stuff that, as it turned out, 29 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: didn't need protecting. This is not to say things haven't 30 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: been and aren't bad. They are. Adrian's made a god 31 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 1: awful mess of it all, as bad as any and 32 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: worse than most. But this week I think we saw 33 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: a little bit of hope. The jobless rate is still 34 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: to rise, yes it is, but if the forecasts were 35 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: wrong now, my bet is those who think it will 36 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: go to six percent will be wrong next year. The 37 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: mood has or is changing. People don't want to be 38 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: any more down than they need to be, and the tide, 39 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: my gut tells me, is now turning. Even Adrian saw 40 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,119 Speaker 1: better times ahead for farming in his report this week. 41 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: I see it not only for farming, I see it, 42 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: indeed for most of the rest of us. For more 43 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks 44 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 45 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.