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Speaker 1: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Traders warning Kiwis to

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Speaker 1: leave Lebanon now if they haven't already. It comes as

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Speaker 1: the fighting continues between Israel and Hesbila, and more than

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Speaker 1: five hundred and fifty people, including fifty children, according to

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Speaker 1: the Lebanese Health Ministry, have died just this week. I'm

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Speaker 1: joined now by Stephen Holey, retired professor of International Relations.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Stephen, thanks for being with me.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Marian.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with this attack overnight. Israel claims to have

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Speaker 1: killed a senior commander, a senior Hesbila commander in charge

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Speaker 1: of their missile systems. They've dropped two thousand weapons on

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Speaker 1: fifteen hundred targets inside Lebanon just in the last day.

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Speaker 1: And what do you make of those developments.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is all part of Israel's attempt to stop

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Speaker 2: the missiles firing into Israel. Israel is fighting an existential

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Speaker 2: war that means a war for its very existence against

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Speaker 2: the surrounding Arab hostile Iranian backed opponents that are trying

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Speaker 2: to eliminate that Israel from the map. So Israel, it

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Speaker 2: takes the view that these civilian casualties are unfortunate, but

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Speaker 2: necessary in an all out war against those who would

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Speaker 2: do Israel harm. Now, I was glad to hear that

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Speaker 2: you said, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health about

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Speaker 2: the five hundred casualties, what you could have also have

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Speaker 2: said the Hesbelah dominated ministry of health. I've got an

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Speaker 2: article in front of me from the Washington Post. It

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Speaker 2: says the Israel's military targeted a school in Gaza. What

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Speaker 2: it didn't say is that it targeted a Hesbelah command

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Speaker 2: headquarters that had taken over a school in Gaza. And

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Speaker 2: this is I think the bias of the news media

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Speaker 2: that it's easy to report on the casualties, the women

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Speaker 2: and children, the collapse buildings, the explosions. What is more

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Speaker 2: difficult to report is what are the reasons behind this?

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Speaker 2: Why is Israel doing these things? And Israel does have

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Speaker 2: a point of view that I believe the media are

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Speaker 2: not presenting as fully as they are presenting the victimhood

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Speaker 2: of those casualties.

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Speaker 1: And as Ntainna who said overnight, anyone who has a

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Speaker 1: missile in their living room or a rocket and their

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Speaker 1: garage will not have a home, making the point that

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Speaker 1: he's not going after Lebanon, He's going after Hesbelah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a very good point. And also, as you well know,

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Speaker 2: Israel issues Wardings tells people if they know there's a

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Speaker 2: Hezbolah facility nearby, a rocket launching facility, a command post,

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Speaker 2: a cache of weapons, to keep their distance because they're

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Speaker 2: very likely to be a target of an airstrike. And

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Speaker 2: that's exactly what Israel is doing. This is within the

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Speaker 2: guidelines of the laws of war. They're targeting military assets

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Speaker 2: of Hisbela. They're not targeting civilians. And I think this

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Speaker 2: is not well appreciated in the way the media is

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Speaker 2: covering this particular contract.

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Speaker 1: But you have to be the attacks on the walkie

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Speaker 1: talkies and stuff, you're obviously going to hit civilians in

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Speaker 1: the process, aren't you.

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Speaker 2: Now, not at all. The walkie talkies and the hit

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Speaker 2: pagers were specifically given to Hisbolla operatives.

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Speaker 1: Some of them went off in supermarkets. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: can't stop the children getting the fruit in the aisles

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Speaker 1: from being hit too, can you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. And many of the were given by

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Speaker 2: the operatives to their sons and daughters to play with,

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Speaker 2: which is against the rules of their own organization. In

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Speaker 2: the case, a kind of casual corruption of the use

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Speaker 2: of their assets. And yes there are incidental in casualties,

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Speaker 2: but again the target, the intent was military assets.

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Speaker 1: Will Stephen. Where does this go next? Because there's an

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Speaker 1: interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning talking

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Speaker 1: about the fact that Israel won't go on a ground

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Speaker 1: offensive into Lebanon. They it was basically a draw a

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Speaker 1: stalemate last time in two thousand and six, and that

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Speaker 1: there are some pretty intense weaponry on the side of

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Speaker 1: the Lebanese courtesy of Iran. They won't go in there.

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Speaker 1: Where does the scene what happens next?

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Speaker 2: Well, it depends a little bit on the United States.

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Speaker 2: The United States is urging calm and negotiations and obviously

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Speaker 2: urging Israel not to escalate, but at the same time

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Speaker 2: quietly replenishing Israel's arsenal. And so Israel does have the weapons,

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Speaker 2: but does it have the manpower, does it have the morale?

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Speaker 2: The army is tired, their reservist The economy of Israel

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Speaker 2: is difficult because people are away from their normal profession.

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Speaker 2: Can Israel sustain a ground offensive, which would be the

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Speaker 2: most efficient way of moving the Hezbollo rockets back to

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Speaker 2: the north past the Litani River in accordance with United

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Speaker 2: Nations Resolution seventeen oh one. But there are doubts that

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Speaker 2: Israel has the capacity to do that. So I expect

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Speaker 2: the grounded the air attacks will continue, the artillery attacks

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Speaker 2: will continue. Hopefully Hisbela will be degraded Israel and the

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Speaker 2: rocket attacks on Israel will will stop, and consequently there

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Speaker 2: will be a lull. But it's very possible that in

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Speaker 2: another year or two we'll see a repeat of this

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Speaker 2: cycle of violence.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and unfortunately that seems to be a recurring and

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Speaker 1: common theme. Stephen Hadley, a retired professor of International Relations

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Speaker 1: with US for more from News Talks ed B listen

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