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Speaker 1: As far as the most immediate outworking, of course, it's

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Speaker 1: the price of petril. We're worried about the strait up

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Speaker 1: immers are still open, but of course it's constrained to

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Speaker 1: a degree. Terry Collins is the AA Transports policy and

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Speaker 1: advocacy on fuel and is with us. Good morning.

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Speaker 2: Morning mate.

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Speaker 1: Now I assume how long this lasts is the key

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Speaker 1: to the disruption? Is the key to the price of petrol?

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Speaker 2: You're correct. There's one other factor, and that's the intensity

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Speaker 2: of the fighting. So really it's duration and how hard

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Speaker 2: they go at each.

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Speaker 1: Other and widespread geographically speaking. Is that important or not?

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Speaker 2: No? I think it's the location which is the key

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Speaker 2: issue here, which is the Strait of Hormos, slightly larger

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Speaker 2: than the Cook Straight and about twenty percent of the

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Speaker 2: world's crew and gears goes through it, so it's easy

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Speaker 2: to target vessels within it. And it's what the response

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Speaker 2: will be from the Americans around protecting those vehicles and

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Speaker 2: the risk that those carriers are prepared to take.

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Speaker 1: I looked at the price. There's a day's delay, but

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Speaker 1: at seventy two eighty seven it's up almost three percent.

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Speaker 1: What do you reckon is that is that where we're

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Speaker 1: going or is it going to double or we just

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Speaker 1: don't know.

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Speaker 2: It won't double, but it's going to go upwards. What

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Speaker 2: they're doing is fat during the rescue, everybody's sitting back

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Speaker 2: and watching what's happened. What we don't want is immediate

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Speaker 2: price increases at the pump. Generally, that price that you

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Speaker 2: saw this morning is for April contracts. That's a month ahead,

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Speaker 2: so we know we've got to buy that will, we've

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Speaker 2: got to refine it, ship it and get it to us,

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Speaker 2: So they're only buying it at last month's price. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to see what they call the rocket and

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Speaker 2: feather effect, which is when this geopolitical event happens, the

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Speaker 2: price that the pump rockets up.

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Speaker 1: Some are suggesting triple figures for oil. Is that fair

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Speaker 1: or not?

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Speaker 2: Look, I think that if the guests good as guess

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Speaker 2: as anybody's as you said, it's the duration, how long

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Speaker 2: it lasts will be very one of our key factors.

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Speaker 2: And how much the price goes up.

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Speaker 1: And what about production. I pick it's said they're going

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Speaker 1: to produce more, does that negate it or not?

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Speaker 2: Well, around produces about three percent of the world. That's

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Speaker 2: three million dollars per day ope pluses and put them

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Speaker 2: on that four hundred cents each tabells today. So it's

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Speaker 2: not going to really replace what this lost.

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Speaker 1: Okay, good on You're Terry Terry Collins, who's with AA.

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Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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