1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,120
Speaker 1: Gas market will need to shrink sharply over the next decade.

2
00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,560
Speaker 1: Modeling assumes MAUI stops producing next to you major uses

3
00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,440
Speaker 1: methodex balance. They're both exiting John Candy as the chief

4
00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,680
Speaker 1: executive of course of Energy Resources and is with us John,

5
00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:13,680
Speaker 1: Very good morning to you.

6
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:15,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, good morning, Mike.

7
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 1: The transition for business to something else? Is that real

8
00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:20,360
Speaker 1: at the moment? So are there big businesses out there

9
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,720
Speaker 1: transitioning to something else? What is it they're transitioning to

10
00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:24,520
Speaker 1: and is it working?

11
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,040
Speaker 2: Hey, look, that's a great question. But actually, before getting

12
00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,200
Speaker 2: into the details of the report, I actually wonder if

13
00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,720
Speaker 2: New Zealand's having the right conversation, you know, like this

14
00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:39,280
Speaker 2: this actually isn't really a report about the gas market shrinking.

15
00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 2: It's actually a report about our economy shrinking. PwC. That

16
00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,320
Speaker 2: a great bit of work, But they didn't model the

17
00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,600
Speaker 2: economic impacts of these two scenarios some other outfit of

18
00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:55,000
Speaker 2: debt for broadly similar scenarios for mb and they estimate

19
00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 2: it that without an LNG terminal, So i'kin to the

20
00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 2: mess only gas production, New Zealand's real GDP is around

21
00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 2: point one of a percent lower by twenty thirty five,

22
00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,200
Speaker 2: and employment drops by about nine and a half thousand

23
00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,760
Speaker 2: fts in the early twenty thirties, and of course with

24
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:21,000
Speaker 2: an ANGEEVA impacts somewhat smaller, with GDP down by zero

25
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,400
Speaker 2: point seven of a percent by twenty thirty five and

26
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,600
Speaker 2: employment dropping vibe only in fact, i'll use that word

27
00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:32,120
Speaker 2: advisably four thy six hundred fds. And so this report

28
00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,480
Speaker 2: has got me wondering when did we get to be

29
00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,399
Speaker 2: a country that collectively shrugs its shoulders at such a

30
00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,640
Speaker 2: terrible out under the well.

31
00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 1: I mean, every coming to can't get gas and has

32
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,959
Speaker 1: to transition but can't but close is an economic story,

33
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 1: isn't it, Which is what you've just outlined.

34
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 2: You do well exactly, I mean, but these are the

35
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 2: future job opportunities for our kids that we're busily waving

36
00:01:54,760 --> 00:02:00,480
Speaker 2: away a real world jobs in regional US and look

37
00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,440
Speaker 2: big and small businesses. So you know, my question is

38
00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 2: how are the political parties not looking at this and

39
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:12,679
Speaker 2: our country's future debt profile and endemically poor productivity performance

40
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,359
Speaker 2: and going holy, how did we get here? And what

41
00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 2: can we do about it? Because frankly on flabbergaster that

42
00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,960
Speaker 2: results like these have almost become normalized, that we forecast

43
00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,079
Speaker 2: to drop industry and jobs to keep our moribund economy

44
00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,360
Speaker 2: afloat for a while longer. And I asked, actually, in

45
00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 2: the pursuit of what some endless debate over whether windmills

46
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 2: or gas will help us better manage our economic decline.

47
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,639
Speaker 1: That's because we think in three year blocks is the problem.

48
00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 2: That certainly is. I mean, coming back to your question

49
00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,079
Speaker 2: in terms of the transition. Of course, there are there

50
00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:55,080
Speaker 2: are businesses across New Zealand actively looking at how to

51
00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,919
Speaker 2: shift from from fossil fuels to renewable sources of any

52
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,799
Speaker 2: year in there. But there will be some that never

53
00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 2: will be able to. But as I said, this is

54
00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,960
Speaker 2: a bigger story about our overall economic decline, not just

55
00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:09,519
Speaker 2: the decline of the desk market.

56
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,520
Speaker 3: You've sort of depressed me, John, Yeah, Well, you know,

57
00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,080
Speaker 3: reflecting on this report got me thinking about, well, actually

58
00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:22,240
Speaker 3: this is you know, this is a symptomatic actually of

59
00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:23,919
Speaker 3: a bigger set of problems.

60
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:31,960
Speaker 2: And you know, here we are effectively, you know, waving

61
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 2: away jobs and wealth while we're arguing over energy sources.

62
00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 2: While roam burns.

63
00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,000
Speaker 1: Is it the the industrialization? Is that the two strong.

64
00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, we've already suffered an energy crisis

65
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 2: in twenty four and we lost some industries. You know,

66
00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:58,920
Speaker 2: economies transform, you know, industries come and go. The bigger point,

67
00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 2: Mike is how do we fuel our economic prosperity and

68
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 2: infect should that be led by political preference or by

69
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 2: investors who decide what's for their customers.

70
00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,119
Speaker 1: Well, it depends who you ask, obviously, isn't it listen

71
00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,160
Speaker 1: to But I appreciate your time very much. John Carnegie,

72
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,080
Speaker 1: chief executive of Energy Resources, are here right near more

73
00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,760
Speaker 1: people in the country talking like that, of course, And

74
00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:23,640
Speaker 1: I'm right, ar't I? Three year cycles. It's what it's

75
00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,120
Speaker 1: all about. Vision's gone in this country. It's why productivity

76
00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:27,240
Speaker 1: continues to be a problem.

77
00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,440
Speaker 3: For more from the My Asking Breakfast.

78
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,919
Speaker 2: Listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays,

79
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 2: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.