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Speaker 1: Liam dan Is The Herald's Business editor at large with

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Speaker 1: me in the studio. Good evening, a right, So it

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Speaker 1: feels a little bit like the calm before the storm

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Speaker 1: this week, but next week it's going to get gloomy.

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Speaker 1: We've got the HIFU on Tuesday, current account deficit Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: GDP data on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and none of it looking great. Like I was thinking,

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Speaker 2: no tidings of joy, comfort, No good tidings, no joy,

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Speaker 2: no comfort. Yeah. So, you know, talking about the government

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Speaker 2: trying to find money for fancy fairies and things. I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Treasury has already given as much away

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Speaker 2: as it can, but it looks like those Crown accounts

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Speaker 2: are going to look worse on than hoped on. On Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the HIFU half year Fiscal and Economic Update, So I guess,

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Speaker 2: you know, like it's a tough one, but they knew

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Speaker 2: it was coming. But it does mean more borrowing. It

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Speaker 2: does probably mean unless they can really finess things, that

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Speaker 2: they're going to have to put the surplus, you know,

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Speaker 2: go further out in terms of looking for the surplus.

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Speaker 1: Another year delayed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's tough, and you know it means that

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Speaker 2: there's going to be more pressure on Nikola Willis's budget

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Speaker 2: next year. So you know, look, I don't think anybody's

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Speaker 2: expecting it to be great, but I mean it's because

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Speaker 2: the tax take hasn't been there, because the economy has

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Speaker 2: been stuck in recession, as we're going to find out

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Speaker 2: on Thursday, and it's the growth that's projected actually is

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Speaker 2: lower and flatter than we'd hoped as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and because when you look at that, I saw

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Speaker 1: of the OECD report was that last week had us

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Speaker 1: at one point two percent next year growth. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so it's still not like amazing, it's not a boom.

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Speaker 2: And in fact, the Reserve Bank downgraded their forecast. They're

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Speaker 2: looking at sort of two point four for the year after.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's the sort of getting back to two

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Speaker 2: point four. I remember, when you know it used to

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Speaker 2: be over three was good. But they're saying that if

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Speaker 2: we get up over three percent, that's going to be

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Speaker 2: inflationary because our economy doesn't have the capacity anymore. We're

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Speaker 2: not productive enough. But I don't want to get into

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Speaker 2: a big discussion about productivity right now. We're actly going

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Speaker 2: to avoid that before Christmas.

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Speaker 1: That'll be great, save it for Christmas Dayeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, with the cousins and uncles and aunts.

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Speaker 1: That will love that. So we'll have us likely have

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Speaker 1: a surplus delayed, we'll have more borrowing as a result

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Speaker 1: of that. The quarter three GDP numbers, you did mention

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Speaker 1: them briefly, but we'll confirm definitely that we're in recession.

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Speaker 2: Right, Well, that's the expectation. So the second quarter was negative,

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Speaker 2: so this will be the third quarter. It will be historic,

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Speaker 2: so it will say, well, we were in recession. We

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Speaker 2: knew that though, and per capita, we know that we

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Speaker 2: have been in recession for a couple of years. So

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Speaker 2: there's but you know, I suppose if there's a bright

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Speaker 2: spot and that the economists are starting to say that

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Speaker 2: this might represent a low point. And so yeah, I

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Speaker 2: mean it's we're talking about low growth, but growth is

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Speaker 2: su're going to feel a lot better than no growth

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Speaker 2: at all. So you know, I'm still still trying to

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Speaker 2: sort of get a little bit of optimism into the

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Speaker 2: message for twenty twenty five. It's going to feel better

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Speaker 2: than twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. It's hard, though, isn't it hard? Trying to get's

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Speaker 1: like trying to ge blood out of a stone getting

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Speaker 1: a smile out of a business correspondent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, you know, yeah, we've got to be

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Speaker 2: up there.

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Speaker 1: Hey, let's go to the Fed over in the States.

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Speaker 1: They are potentially smiling because they're going to get a

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Speaker 1: rate cut, well, potentially get a rate cut next week.

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Speaker 1: It's looking quite good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because their inflation numbers came in. It I think

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Speaker 2: it's two point seven, which sounds bad, but given that

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Speaker 2: their economy is going quite you know, quite well, they

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Speaker 2: haven't had a recession, they're still growing. Two point seven

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Speaker 2: inflation was considered okay, on target, and that should give

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Speaker 2: room for the Fed to do one more cut ahead

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Speaker 2: of the new year. And you know, look, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of a lot of bullishness about the American economy.

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Speaker 2: Trump coming in and keeping it humming for however long

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Speaker 2: it till whatever the rest of the economic sketches up

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Speaker 2: with them. But the markets are very happy. You know,

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Speaker 2: we're seeing it in our key we saver here, So

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Speaker 2: I guess for all the turmoil and political chaos over there,

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Speaker 2: America is kind of a bright spot on the on

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Speaker 2: the world stage.

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Speaker 1: Right now, leam, Thank you very much. Good to see

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Speaker 1: there's always leam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large,

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Speaker 1: with me in studio for more from Hither Duplessy Allen

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Speaker 1: Drive Listen live to news talks. It'd be from four

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