1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: Now the debate on the punishment for the Malori parties 2 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: has just closed. A bit of a surprise as to 3 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: how that happened. 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:12,159 Speaker 2: On is this You can't have a second speech? Are you? 5 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 2: Are you moving emotion? It is a point of water? 6 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 2: Hang on, I've just I am moving a point of 7 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 2: It's okay that the debate on this question now close. 8 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: Nothing is straightforward about this? 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 3: Is it? 10 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: Eight past six? 11 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: Hell? Due out? 12 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: New Zealand's gas situation is even worse than we might 13 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: have fought. Natural gas reserves have fullen twenty seven percent 14 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 1: compared to last year. Previously, we thought that our annual 15 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: gas production would fall below one hundred peda jules in 16 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine, but it now looks like that's actually 17 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: gonna happen last year, which means running out of gas 18 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: faster than we thought. John Carnegie is the Chief executive 19 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: of Energy Resources AlSi at all? Hey John? 20 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 3: Hey, here you doing im? 21 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 2: Okay? 22 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: Should we be alarmed? 23 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 3: Well? Yep, but this is another sad chapter on the 24 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 3: diary of our energy sector crisis? 25 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: Why should we be alarmed? 26 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 3: What does this mean? Well? Look, put simply, with the 27 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 3: rapidly reducing gas supply, our gas reserves are at historic 28 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 3: low levels. New Zealand's facing high energy prices, increased reliance 29 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 3: on imported coal, uncertainty for industrial users, and flow on 30 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:26,639 Speaker 3: potential impacts into the electricity security. So you know, without 31 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 3: rapid actually without rapid action to improve our gas supplies, 32 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 3: New Zealand will experience a collapse in our gas deliveries 33 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: before twenty thirty and actually experience what I can only 34 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 3: modestly describe as an energy shock. 35 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: Okay, so what does it mean if we have a 36 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: collapse in our gas supplies? 37 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 3: Oh, well, it means that we well will try and 38 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 3: use alternatives. So as we're seeing in the electricity sector 39 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: where we're using coal, can. 40 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: We replace the level of gas that we would lose 41 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: in a lapse? Can we replace that with coal? 42 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 3: No, we can use more coal in the electricity system, 43 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:07,639 Speaker 3: But no we can't. 44 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: We can't because John, there are times are there, not 45 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: in normal winters, where everything is running full bore, including coal, 46 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: and even then we're just making it. So if we 47 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: lose gas, then we're having blackouts, aren't we. 48 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: Well that's a pretty grim prognosis, but the risk it 49 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 3: certainly increases of us having blackouts. But I guess the 50 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 3: other issue is that we will be seeing more renewables 51 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 3: come on stream, but you know, they're not at scale 52 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 3: and they're not affordable at the moment. So an absence 53 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 3: of gas points us to a rather rocky five to 54 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 3: ten years. 55 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: Okay, what does an energy shock in New Zealand look like? 56 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 3: Well, I guess it means that Carla stays will have 57 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 3: nothing on that. I mean it means we have factories 58 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 3: closing for periods, have periods where potentially we're without power. 59 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: But look, I don't particularly want to dwell on that, 60 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 3: because you know, ultimately the system will adjust and we 61 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: will get renewables or we will go without for a while. 62 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 3: But in terms of where we're at, we've got a 63 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 3: government that's increasingly and heavily engaged in the issue, as 64 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 3: you've seen with the two hundred million dollar fund, and 65 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 3: so the prospects we are hoping that these numbers are 66 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 3: at the lowest they will ever be and that we 67 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: will see a turnaround in condition. 68 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: Is there a risk that if our supply keeps on 69 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: falling at the rate that it is, that actually it 70 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: gets to a point where it starts to also deter 71 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: investment because people look at it and go, jeesus, it's 72 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: just I mean, that industry is just so tiny. Now 73 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: we're not going to. 74 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:54,119 Speaker 3: Bother, yes, but that's not the point that we're at. 75 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 3: And as I said, with the two hundred changes that 76 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 3: the government's looking to do legislatively in terms of reversing 77 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 3: the band, ameliorating the worst excesses of the decommissioning rules 78 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 3: that was put on by the last government, and a 79 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 3: two hundred million dollar fund, you know, we're hopeful that investment, 80 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 3: the investment sentiment of the sectible change towards undertaking more 81 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 3: activity and actually growing our guess reserves. 82 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, here's hoping. 83 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: John. 84 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: Thank you very much to really appreciate it. John carn'tegie 85 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 1: Energy Resources outsiet or a chief executive 86 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, Listen live to 87 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,559 Speaker 2: news talks that'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 88 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.