1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,199 Speaker 1: Join over seven hundred and fifty thousand people using Chezy's 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: to build long term wealth. Invest with no minimum across 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: the US, Australian and New Zealand share markets. Download the 4 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: cheeseas app to get started. 5 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 2: But every company is, you know, going to survive and thrive. 6 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,319 Speaker 2: But shares in general are very likely in my opinion, 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 2: because history tells us to go much higher from here 8 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: over the long term, and that's the only timeframe that 9 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 2: people should be worried about. Half of my brain is like, 10 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: I'm losing money. This sucks so much red. The other 11 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: part of my brain, and this is the important bit, 12 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: is the bit that says, but hang on, you knew 13 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 2: this was going to happen. You know what's happened before 14 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 2: you know it's going to happen again. Dollar cost averaging 15 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: for the winds. Buying shares on sales is what we 16 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 2: all think we want to do, except when they're on sale. 17 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: We pain. 18 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 3: Welcome to shared Lunch, brought to you by Chas's. At Cheza's, 19 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 3: we're on a mission to create financial empowerment for everyone, 20 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: which is why we have these conversations. They're a big 21 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 3: part of being able to dig in to the different 22 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: topics that are affecting at vistas and to get experts 23 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 3: along to share their view on it. So I'm Sonya, 24 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: the co founders and co CEOs at Chairs Ease, and 25 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 3: today we're joined by Chief Investing Officer at the Montley 26 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 3: Full Scott Phillips. We're going to chat about all things 27 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 3: US tariffs and the upcoming election and how this is 28 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 3: impacting Australia. 29 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 4: Before we get. 30 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: Started, I want to acknowledge the Getigul people of the 31 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 3: or nation, the traditional custodians of the land when we're 32 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 3: coming to you from today and pay respects to elders, past, 33 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 3: present and emerging. 34 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 5: Investing involves the risk you might lose the money you 35 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 5: start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 36 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 5: We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. 37 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 5: Everything you're about to see and here is current at 38 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 5: the time of recording. 39 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 4: Hi Scott, welcome to the show, Sonya, Thank you and 40 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 4: thank you for having me. Yeah, great to have you back. 41 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 3: So I'm just going to jump straight into it is 42 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 3: now a good time to invest? 43 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely a great time to invest, but with a 44 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: massive asteriskmote. The asterisk is I have no idea what 45 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: happens next. So I maybe the market force twenty percent, 46 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 2: maybe it rises twenty percent, maybe it goes nowhere for 47 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 2: a year. I have absolutely no idea. So how can 48 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: I say it's a great time to invest. That's a 49 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: really really simple one. Here's what history tells us, and 50 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 2: this is really important. The ASX, the US markets, developed 51 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 2: markets around the world have never yet failed to regain 52 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 2: then surpass a previous high. So here's the thing. If 53 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 2: that holds true, now it may not. I can't give 54 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 2: a promise or a guarantee. If it does hold true, 55 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 2: that means it upside from here to get back to 56 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 2: the last high and then more upside again. Shares, relatively 57 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: where they have been, are on special. So do I 58 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 2: know what's going to happen next? No? Do I know 59 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 2: which companies know. And by the way, when I say shares, 60 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 2: when you ask the question, shares, I'm talking about generically 61 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 2: generally across the market. Not every company will go up, 62 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 2: not every company is worth buying, not every company is 63 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: going to survive and thrive, But shares in general are 64 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 2: very likely in my opinion, because history tells us to 65 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: go much higher from here over the long term, and 66 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: that's the only timeframe that people should be worried about. 67 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 3: You mentioned that you know things have been dropping over 68 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 3: the last week, while largely know one of the things 69 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 3: that's driving this is the tariffs that have been put 70 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 3: in place by the US. And so we're looking at 71 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 3: ten percent for Australia as a baseline. What impact are 72 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 3: these tariffs having on Australian companies. 73 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 2: Let's work out what's going on. So the tariffs that 74 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: have been put in place. I'm going to be going 75 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 2: to be pretty honest here and I'm gonna be pretty upfront. 76 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: I'm going to ask your listeners to trust me on 77 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: the process here. I don't have a political dog in 78 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 2: this fight. Democrat, Republican, liberal, labor, I don't care. What 79 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 2: I will say to you is economically, these tariffs are 80 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 2: a terrible idea and a terrible solution to a reasonable problem. 81 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 2: And just because if identified a problem correctly, which is hoy, 82 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: there's some problems with the US manufacturing, doesn't mean the answer, 83 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: any answer is always going to be necessarily correct. I'm 84 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 2: sorry for the hardcore Trump finds that fans out that 85 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: it's not true. Again, it's not a personal view it's 86 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 2: not even a political view, it's just an economic view. 87 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 2: So what's happening is Donald Trumps announced tariffs on much 88 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: of the rest of the world. And I'll get back 89 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: to Australia and New Zealand by extension a minute. But 90 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: the impact of those tariffs are going to be almost 91 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 2: certainly higher prices for US consumers. Why because when we 92 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: say we're putting tariffs on Chinese products, we're not really 93 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 2: say we're paying putting traffs on tarifts on China. We're 94 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 2: saying American consumers or Donald Trump saying American consumer is 95 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: going to pay more for Chinese imports. Or by the way, 96 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 2: the newly competitive US made stuff that's more expensive than 97 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: it used to be but can now compete at those 98 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 2: higher prices. In other words, no matter which way you 99 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 2: cut the sausage, you're paying a higher price for those goods. 100 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 2: Higher prices mean inflation. Now, I don't have to explain 101 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: that we've been through five years of it over the 102 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 2: last half decade right around the world. High inflation is bad. 103 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 2: High inflation may also lead to and most economists, and frankly, 104 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 2: even the Atlanta branch of the US Federal Reserve are 105 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 2: expecting the US to enter a recession this year. If 106 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 2: the US enters a recession, the other world's largest economy 107 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: are the world's largest consumer economy by miles. If the 108 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:48,799 Speaker 2: US has a recession, it's going to put meaningful downward 109 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: pressure on economic growth right around the rest of the world, 110 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: including down here at the bottom end of the globe 111 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 2: in Australia, in New Zealand. So that's the setup. But 112 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 2: it's important set up because when you say, what's going 113 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: to happen to companies here in Australia, Yeah, there's three 114 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 2: ways to think about it. The first is that global story, 115 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 2: the global recession risk. If the US demands less, Australian 116 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 2: companies may produce less. If Australian's companies produced less, their 117 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: profits are probably going to fall. Now that's a modest outcome. 118 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: It is a lot less. We may well see companies far, 119 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 2: we may well see job losses. And I'm an optimist 120 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 2: by the way, but I would also want to tell 121 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 2: it straight. So that is the possible outcome. That is 122 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 2: the worst case scenario probably if this does get to 123 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: that intergre So that's the first order impact. The second 124 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: order impact is, of course the impact on Australian companies directly. 125 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 2: We know there's twenty five percent on Australian aluminium and steel. 126 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 2: There is ten percent now and everything else going to 127 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: the US. If you have a meaningful proportion of your 128 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 2: sales that go to the US, they are going to 129 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: be harder sales to make. Maybe you absorb the increase 130 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 2: and make lower margins. Maybe you pass on the increase 131 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 2: and have lower sales. There'll be a few companies that 132 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: can pass on the increase and still sell the same amount. 133 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 2: That's the best case scenario, but it's probably a small group. 134 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: Because price elasticity matters. If you put prices up, people 135 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 2: buy less. So that's the second order for all those 136 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 2: businesses that are exporting to the US. And by the way, 137 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 2: those companies reliant on those other companies. If you're supplying 138 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 2: a company that's exporting to the US and they buy less, 139 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 2: are going to buy less from you, so that matters. 140 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 2: Further impact really quickly is China. Australia is China's so 141 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 2: China's Astralia's largest trading partner by heaps. There are ongoing 142 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 2: tit for tat reciprocal tariffs of the bullies, Bass each 143 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 2: other over the head. Trump said overnight recently a couple 144 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 2: of days ago, they are going to maybe put fifty 145 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 2: percent tariffs on Chinese goods on top or they've already 146 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 2: announced why because China had the too ready to basically 147 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 2: bash back at the US putting tariffs on at the 148 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 2: first place. And this is the silliness of what's going on. 149 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 2: But if China's economy slows and Chinese steel production slows, 150 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 2: guess what that's going to hurt austrain and own or 151 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 2: exports meaningfully. That's not a big economic impact, by the way, 152 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 2: because iron or impact. It doesn't employ a whole lot 153 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 2: of people, but big impact for share prices for those 154 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: iron or exporters they own shares and four descu for 155 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 2: full disclosure, bad news for those miners, bad news for 156 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: government revenues, and for gross domestic economic output. So there's 157 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 2: three kind of concentric circles, if you like, of potential 158 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: outcomes from the tariff or when it comes to what's 159 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 2: going to hit us here at home, are there. 160 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 4: Any particular areas that benefit from the change? 161 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 5: No. 162 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 2: I mean, if you stretch and you squint really significantly, 163 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 2: you might find an opportunity to find one or two. 164 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: What you might see happen is Australian companies find other 165 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: markets for their products. For example, we saw when China 166 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: put massive tariffs on Australian wine. Australia wine makers found 167 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: other markets. It wasn't easy and found some something didn't 168 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 2: find any at all, by the way, I was going 169 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 2: to a massive wine glut in Australia. So is there upside 170 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: from that? No, If you are in an ASX listed 171 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 2: company that happens to a business only in the US 172 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 2: and somehow it is able to make more money because 173 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: it could prices up because inputs are more expensive, maybe 174 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 2: it's a little bit somewhere there in the nooks and crannies. 175 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 2: It's a really really small sliver of potential upside. And frankly, 176 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: even then, those companies are more likely to be hit 177 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 2: by US economic pain more broadly rather than tariffs. Particularly, 178 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: that is, if inflation goes up, if economic growth falls, 179 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 2: if unemployment rises, those companies that are based there are 180 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: probably going to hurt. And by the way, that's why 181 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 2: we're seeing US share markets fall. You kind of think 182 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 2: in the way that the simplistic version that Trump and 183 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: others like to present this tariffs go up, US business 184 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 2: gets better. US companies make a lot of money, US 185 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 2: people get employed. Therefore, it's all wine and roses. The 186 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: reality is the US market is absolutely tanked for a 187 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 2: couple of straight days late last week, earlier this week. 188 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 2: Why because those investor are worried about the profits of 189 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: those companies because of the economic harm that these tarifts 190 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 2: will do domestically. I'm looking long term, which, by the way, 191 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: is still why you go back to your first question. 192 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 2: Why I'm still massively optimistic. So if I think five, 193 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: if I investment prises five years plus out it is 194 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 2: that's post Trump's term. So again, thinking about what's happening now, 195 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: this week, this month, that's scary. It hurts your portfolio falls, 196 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 2: It just sucks because no one likes the uncertainty. But 197 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: if I'm a long term investor, and I am, I'm 198 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: looking at five years and going ah, if companies are 199 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: bigger and better than five years than they are now, 200 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 2: despite what they go through in the meantime, they're worth buying. 201 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: And so that's the lens I really want to impress 202 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: on people. Think about what's happening in those number of 203 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 2: years out there. Don'try about just the short term stuff between. 204 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 3: Now and then, we track and sentiment through the quarters, 205 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 3: and over the last quarter we've seen it move from 206 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 3: what was pretty balanced into cautious territory. What are you 207 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 3: noticing from Invista sentiment and long term planning? 208 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 5: Now? 209 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 2: When we went through COVID almost exactly five years ago. 210 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: Weirdly enough, we've looked about the market fellow in Australia thirty 211 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 2: eight percent from top to bottom in a month and 212 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,599 Speaker 2: four days. Now, that felt scary as heck. Right, that's 213 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: just really really scary. And I don't blame people feeling 214 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 2: scared because what if COVID was bigger than ended up being. 215 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 2: What if the death toll was massively higher, and that 216 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 2: would be obviously far more tragic than the financial impacts. 217 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 2: What if the economy's ground or hopeful longer? What if? 218 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: What if I get all those concerns right? Except in 219 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 2: hindsight we know it was the fastest bear market in 220 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: history and then the fastest recovery in history. So when 221 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 2: you think about people cautious, yes, absolutely, I'm seeing exactly 222 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: the same thing, mate, Just like I got to get 223 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 2: out of here. This is scary. One thing I want 224 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 2: to remind people is remember for every seller, for every 225 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 2: so called panic seller, there's a buyer. You can't sell 226 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 2: shares unless someone buys them from you. And so while 227 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 2: we say, oh, everyone's selling, well, it can't be because 228 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 2: everyone's also buying. There's always two sides to a trade. 229 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 2: So while we focus on the declines, and yes, there's 230 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 2: more panic in the sellers than there is excitement in 231 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 2: the buyers, otherwise the prices go back up. That's why 232 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 2: we get it with price falls, right, that the sellers 233 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: are keener than the buyers are. Everything finds its market, 234 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 2: finds its price, and someone ever a lot, millions and 235 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 2: minuses and millions of shares are changing hands, being bought 236 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 2: by people who are saying, hey, this is okay. So, yes, 237 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 2: there's cautiousness out there. There is fear out there is uncertainly. 238 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 2: I get why people are worried about it. So I 239 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 2: want to validate that because it's really really important, the 240 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 2: active investing through COVID. This is what I've told this 241 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: story before, son, you and I may have told anything 242 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 2: to you, guys, I hope I didn't. During COVID, there's 243 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 2: two sides of the investor's brain, right, there's a bit 244 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 2: that says, oh my god, what's happening out there? This 245 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 2: is ridiculous. And a policy perspective, I have very strong views, 246 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: as you've already heard, from an investment perspective, though, I've 247 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 2: got to have two parts of my brain. Half of 248 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 2: my brain is like, I'm losing money. This sucks so much, 249 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 2: red I'm down again. Maybe the market's right. What if 250 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 2: this is the time that it's different freaking out here? 251 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 2: What if it keeps falling? Maybe now is not the time. 252 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 2: Maybe I should wait till the coast is cleared. All 253 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 2: those fear emotions, all those uncertainty, all those worries they're 254 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 2: going to be there. What if I'm investing too early? 255 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: What if I'm wasting money? All that things through my head. 256 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:18,599 Speaker 2: The other part of my brain, and this is the 257 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 2: important bit, is the bit that says, but hang on, 258 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 2: you knew this was going to happen. You know what's 259 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: happened before, you know what's going to happen again. Dollar 260 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 2: cost averaging for the wind. If you've got some money 261 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 2: to invest, if you can find great companies you think 262 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 2: they're going to better in five years time, then now 263 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 2: what that is a great thing to be able to do. 264 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 2: Buying shares on sale is what we all think we 265 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 2: want to do, except when they're on sale, we panic. 266 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 2: And so two parts of your brain acknowledge the fear, 267 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 2: acknowledge the uncertain, acknowledge the concern, and then say, but 268 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 2: I'm investing anyway, because I just have to confront it, 269 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: ignore it, do what if you need to do with 270 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 2: the fear, But invest anyway, because long term that's proven 271 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 2: over and over and over and over again to be 272 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 2: the right approach. Again, not in any company. Quality companies, 273 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 2: diversified companies, across currencies, across exchanges, across the industries, businesses 274 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 2: with good balance sheets, all the good things that we've 275 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: talked about before about good investing, keep doing that stuff. 276 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 2: Don't buy indiscriminately, but keep buying anyway. 277 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 3: What are the key metrics that people should be keeping 278 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 3: an eye on to see how things are going? 279 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,839 Speaker 2: So I've got to say this is where there are 280 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 2: really easy bit wrong answers to that question. 281 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 3: Right. 282 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 2: And if you speak to short term trades, if you 283 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 2: speak to people who are going to try and sell 284 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 2: you a thing rather than hopefully educate you about an approach, 285 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 2: they'll give you lots of great metrics. I have exactly 286 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: zero metrics in the short term. Why because think about 287 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 2: think about think about every recession we've ever lived through, 288 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 2: and I've lived through a few. The market goes down, 289 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 2: share prices go down, say I always go down, profits 290 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 2: go down. If you're looking for the recovery to happen, 291 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 2: by the time of the recovery happens, that's too late. 292 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: I've told the story before about some really really smart, 293 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 2: wealthy investors who sold everything at the beginning of COVID 294 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 2: and said, I'm not going to buy back in until 295 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 2: the pandemic is over. Now, the pandemic took two years 296 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 2: to be over, and in fact got worse before it 297 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 2: got better. But as lockdowns happened, one tomy shrank. As 298 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: that happened, the stock market recovered. So if you're looking 299 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 2: out the rest of the world, this is way the 300 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 2: economy in the stock market up. The same thing. If 301 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 2: you're looking around the world, you're saying, well, tragically, deaths 302 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: have increased, illnesses have increased, hospitalizations have increased, lockdowns have happened. 303 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,319 Speaker 2: People are barred from entering and leaving countries. Economic activity 304 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: has stalled. Governments are keeping US afloat with welfare money. 305 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 2: This feel it's getting worse, and yet the market recovered 306 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 2: and recovered and recovered up into the right. Not in 307 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: a straight line and not without doubts and concerns, but 308 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 2: it did. If you waited until a vaccine, you missed out. 309 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 2: If you waited until a pandemic was declared over, you 310 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 2: missed out even more. So I'm going to politely not 311 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 2: answer your question, because honestly, the only metrics you need 312 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 2: to be thinking about are I guess there are, but 313 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 2: they're not really metrics in terms of what data I'm 314 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 2: seeing happen. I'm trying to, as an investor, look forward 315 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 2: and say, in a pick a year in twenty thirty, 316 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 2: I'm going to pick a business in twenty thirty. Are 317 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 2: they going to have more stores? Are they going to 318 00:13:58,080 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 2: sell to more people? Are they going to find new 319 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 2: ways to add categories? They're going to keep their costs 320 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 2: under control? Probably yes, And if that's the case, they're 321 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: going to be mostly more profitable in twenty thirty than 322 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 2: they were. I'll say last year. Let's not include this 323 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 2: year because what happened the last year. Yeah, probably they will. Okay, Well, 324 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,839 Speaker 2: if that's true, how much should I pay for that business? 325 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 2: And I can no matter what you've preached to evaluation 326 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 2: is you can pick a rough price or rough multiple 327 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 2: or rough whatever you want to base your evaluation one 328 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 2: to say worth buying or not buying now based on 329 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 2: where I think it'll be in twenty thirty. Let's say 330 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 2: think a year long recession that's says really bad year long, 331 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 2: and it goes from middle of twenty twenty five to 332 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 2: middle of twenty twenty six and sales four by fifty percent. 333 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 2: Now is the company going to survive that? If it's 334 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: got a good enough balance sheet, Yes, it's got good 335 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 2: enough cash flows. Yes, okay, if I'm comfortable they will, 336 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 2: And you shouldn't assume, by the way, do do the 337 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: work for yourself. In the middle of twenty twenty six, 338 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: they come out of recession and sales suck and they're 339 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 2: losing money, but they start to improve over time, and 340 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 2: over that period of time from twenty to twenty seven, 341 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 2: twenty eight, twenty nine, things get back to normal. And 342 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 2: again I look at it and go roight well by 343 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: twenty thirty, even if they've gone through a recession, even 344 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: if sales and profits did get really ugly for a while, 345 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 2: but they survived and then come out the other d 346 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 2: I think going to be bigger and better. Okay, what's 347 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 2: a fair price to pay for those businesses now? So 348 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 2: don't wait? Is my opinion? My us for the metrics 349 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 2: to come through start by saying, what do I think 350 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 2: about the business? Do I like it has got a 351 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 2: good brand, has got a good future? Will it have 352 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 2: those in five years time? Yes? Okay, what's it worth 353 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 2: paying today to get that benefit of five years time? 354 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 2: That's the entire lens I use for my investing. 355 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: Yeah. Great. So alongside all of this, there's an election 356 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 3: coming up in Australia, so's what's again another moment of 357 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 3: uncertainty that does ripple through into the markets. What's been 358 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 3: most interesting to you so far and the lead out. 359 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 2: Australia still has a very large budget deficit and it's 360 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: projected to get worse based on the most recent budget 361 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 2: handed down by the current incumbent government. And that's not 362 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: good for Australia. That's worse than the US by the way. 363 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 2: They've got massive foreign dead issues, massive government debt issues, 364 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: so fiscal kind of fiscal being tax and spend right, 365 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 2: the fancy where the economists use for government spending and taxation. 366 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 2: The tax and spend settings are misaligned, and how that 367 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 2: nets out does actually have an impact on the economy. 368 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 2: We're supposed to run service in the good times definit 369 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: at the bad time is supposed to offset each other. 370 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: The taxes, spen serting is actually really matter for long 371 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 2: term prosperity. So I'm keeping an eye on how much 372 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 2: they're spending. Really honestly, what is interesting too is the 373 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 2: focus on the short term. So we've got one side, 374 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 2: the incumbent government putting cost of living relief through extension 375 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 2: of energy subsidies. Electricity subsidies effectively a discount on your 376 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 2: energy bill. The oppositions promising a reduction of fuel excise 377 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 2: for six months twelve months. Sorry, these are really short 378 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 2: term solutions. So I got to say, from an economic perspective, 379 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 2: my view has always been that as an investor, I 380 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 2: care far more about the long term settings of the 381 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: country than about the short term opportunities or risks to 382 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 2: the individual businesses. Now I want to say risks, I 383 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: don't mean existential risks. If something's going to go broke, 384 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 2: I really care if it's like well, tax rates for 385 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 2: companies are slightly higher a lower, or tax rates to 386 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: individuals slightly hire a lower. But if I'm a long 387 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: term investor, what I care most about is my companies 388 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 2: had the opportunity to operate in a really really solid, healthy, 389 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 2: growing economy, and so I honestly want to look at 390 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:07,679 Speaker 2: the election. I'm not looking at who's going to give 391 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 2: more money to this industry five bucks for that, ten 392 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 2: bucks for that. By the way, I'm not top that investor. 393 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 2: I do' a macro investor at all. But policy wise, 394 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: I would like to think the government that comes into 395 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 2: power post election is going to fix the budget bottom line. 396 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 2: They probably won't, but I'd like to think that, and 397 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 2: they're really genuinely thinking long term about setting the country 398 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 2: up for the best long term success so that we 399 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 2: can all thrive. And if we all do, companies have 400 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 2: well people to sell goods too, they have richer people 401 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 2: to sell goods to, and people on low incomes have 402 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 2: more money to spend on. I mean, it's a really 403 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 2: beautiful virtual circle if they get it right. The sugar 404 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: hit is exactly what it sounds like. It's good for 405 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 2: a little while and then goes away. So those are 406 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: kind of things I've been kind of focusing on. There's 407 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 2: not a lot specifically for individual companies or industries. I'll 408 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: have to wait and see kind of what comes from that. 409 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 2: What is interesting at the moment is both sides have 410 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 2: been reasonably restrained in terms of new spending announcements. I 411 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 2: think because they realize where the budget is. But there 412 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:00,679 Speaker 2: also a lot of cost of living pre sure as 413 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: they call it, and the Polley's a laser focus on 414 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 2: make us feel better about ourselves so we'll vote for them. 415 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, on there. 416 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 4: What do you think is top of mind for Australians 417 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 4: going in I'm not. 418 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 2: Election aunt lost either, but it's been meaningfully different over 419 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 2: the past six months to the last two months. Even 420 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 2: the last month the government was on the nose, the 421 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 2: opposition was in the descendency. Government was getting tagged with 422 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 2: cost of living pressures. I have to say in the 423 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 2: last kind of couple of weeks, and again I make 424 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 2: no predictions, I no election analysts, but it's been what's 425 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 2: been really interesting is the government's clawed back some ground, 426 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 2: whether it's because the RBA started cutting rates, whether it's 427 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,719 Speaker 2: because we've got used to inflation, frankly, whether it's because 428 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 2: the Trump stuff is so scary, we just want the 429 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 2: better the devil we know, I don't really know. And 430 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 2: again this could change between now and the election date. 431 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 2: But we've seen some meaningful swings back to the government 432 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: on a bit of a. It's gone from pure cost 433 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 2: of living to yes cost of living with a bit 434 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 2: of a. This feels a bit scary. Is it time 435 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 2: for a change? So if you asked people, I suspect 436 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 2: they would still say it's all about cost of living. 437 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 2: We know Australian real waves are actually really really poor. 438 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 2: They've they've fallen more than I think any other OECD country, 439 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 2: certainly much lower than the US, the UK and the 440 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 2: average for the OECD. I don't know the New Zealand 441 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 2: numbers that the moment I have to say, I should 442 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 2: know them, but I don't. So we've seen that kind 443 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: of happen, and the cost of living press are probably 444 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 2: worse in terms of real incomes, real being what you get. 445 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: Les's the increase for inflation. If I pay rose a 446 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 2: five percent flashes up six I've gone back as by 447 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 2: one percent of my real wages fallen one percent. That's 448 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 2: what that term means I know, you know that sony 449 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 2: bitch just fear listeners of yours. So yeah, we've gone 450 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 2: backwards in real terms more than almost any other country. 451 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 2: And that was really I think playing in the opposition's 452 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 2: hands cost of living, fix it for me, make it better, 453 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 2: I have say. In the last couple of weeks we've 454 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 2: also seen Peter Dutton the Opposition Letter, reverse his view 455 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 2: on working from home, for example, and sucking public servants. 456 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: They are two things that ordinarily would have played really 457 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 2: strongly to a right wing conservative voter base rightly wrong. 458 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: I make no value judgment, just an observation they've reversed 459 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 2: course on those because they're losing votes on them. And 460 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 2: I do wonder whether there's a bit more of a 461 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 2: band together in the circums sense we find ourselves is 462 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 2: kind of tough economic and geopolitical circumstances, rather than the 463 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 2: divide on partying policy lines. Again, I don't mean the 464 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 2: lymp's being devisive, both groups just kind of you know, 465 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 2: the tribes reverting to their corners. It does feel like 466 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 2: there's more of a considered middle to be won by 467 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 2: the major parties. And I suspect cost of living is 468 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 2: first and foremost, but also that idea of who is 469 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 2: best place to whether the storm that's coming from the US. 470 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 3: As a result, what can retail the visitors expect or 471 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 3: you know, how do elections impact to the markets, So. 472 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 2: What markets tend to respond to. We've seen this in 473 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks is markets respond to uncertainty, 474 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 2: but more importantly to the unexpected. And I guess what 475 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 2: I mean by that is this horrible phrash. Cool things 476 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 2: are priced in. Well, if the market knows there's going 477 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 2: to be tax cuts in a month time, just pick 478 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 2: an example, the market will say, we think people spend 479 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 2: more money then, and so the taxcat gets priced in. 480 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 2: People foresee that increase, and the price goes up in anticipation. 481 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 2: So the things that we know are already priced in, 482 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 2: at least in theory. The tar that were surprise announcements 483 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 2: are why the market fell because we all kind of thought, well, 484 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 2: Trump might do some cares. Maybe possibly, we'll see and 485 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 2: that's why we've seen it. At four. The election will 486 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 2: move markets only when either a party wins who is 487 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 2: expected to win, or a party unveils a policy or 488 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: set of policies the market's not expecting and so generally speaking, 489 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 2: we don't tend to see much movement in markets or 490 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 2: even individual industries most of the time if there is 491 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 2: either a change of government or a return of the 492 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 2: incumbent government because the things that differentiate those two parties. 493 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 2: There's also numbers from one of the big economists, Christ 494 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 2: original Shanelevel or can't remember who was, I think it 495 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 2: was Chris said ninety some of the ninety nine percent 496 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 2: of the spending of both parties exactly the same, ether 497 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 2: as they differ only a one percent of the government budget. Now, 498 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 2: those differences a matter if you a company is going 499 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 2: to get some money or you know individual is going 500 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 2: to get a tax cut or something, so it matters. 501 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 2: But most of the spending is the same across the board. 502 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 2: So unless you're in an industry specific or a company 503 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 2: that's going to benefit or be hurt by a policy 504 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 2: that's announced, and even then it's already probably priced in 505 00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,479 Speaker 2: unless the party is not expected to win and they 506 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 2: do so not much. The last thing I'll leave you with, 507 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 2: Sony is in the US have worked done by Morgan 508 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 2: House or like a great writer and expotly full employee 509 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 2: for the record is basically the over the life of 510 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 2: the US stock market nineteen hundred or so onwards, there's 511 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 2: been literally no significant difference between the party in power 512 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 2: and the average returns of the stock market during that 513 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: period in power. And so that's really important to think 514 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: of because we have plenty of if Trump's elected, he'll 515 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 2: do this. If doesn't selected, he'll do that. If Albo's liketed, 516 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 2: he'll do this. They'll do those things. But statistically, at 517 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 2: least the odds that the party in power make a 518 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 2: meaningful difference to the stock market subsequently, it's yeah, it's 519 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 2: lie ball. There is no meaningful difference. There's a lot 520 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 2: of people who have this view of if Party X wins, 521 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:43,959 Speaker 2: then the market marke will do well, so I'll buy, 522 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 2: or they're going to wreck the party. Why I was 523 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 2: going to wrect the economy, so I'll sell everything. It 524 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 2: just isn't the case very often, and so I really 525 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 2: would encourage people separate your politics and your your you're 526 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 2: investing anything else. 527 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 4: That we want to that we haven't covered about the 528 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 4: election or tariffs, really, I. 529 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,879 Speaker 2: Think so a couple of things. The people who are 530 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 2: the supportive of Trump's tariffs say, well, other countries have 531 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 2: done on the country's done it before. You know, Yes, 532 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 2: they've always been around, and I guess I kind of 533 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 2: hap him back a little bit on what I said 534 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 2: about the tariffs. But if you kind of go back 535 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 2: and say, so what you know? And then what and 536 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,719 Speaker 2: then what? The best way to inoculate yourself, by the way, 537 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 2: against the stuff is learn some history. And I don't 538 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 2: mean boring history. I've ever mean economic history. I just 539 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: mean history history. Things improve over time despite stuff. So 540 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 2: the Australians share market's gone up nine percent a year 541 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 2: on average, eight nine percent since about nineteen oh six. 542 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 2: Credit Squiz put some numbers out. By the way, the 543 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 2: ASEX was the best performing stock market over that period 544 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 2: of time, which is pretty good, but only by a 545 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 2: hairsbreadth against the US now roughly nine percent a year. 546 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 2: They say six pp in a year, six point something 547 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 2: six point four. I think it was before inflation, so 548 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 2: you aduflation back, you're roughly nine, give or take. And 549 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 2: that happened despite all these things. Two World wars, the 550 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 2: Korean War, the Vietnam War, two Iraq War was the 551 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 2: war in Afghanistan, the Great Depression, recessions before the Great Depressions, 552 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 2: right after the Great Depression before the Baby Boom, and 553 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 2: then for every seven or ten years after oil shocks 554 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 2: in the seventies, the GFC, the dot com crash, the 555 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 2: eighty seven stock market crash, stagflation in the early eighties. 556 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 2: If I feel like I'm giving a laundry list, I 557 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 2: haven't bet a live that long. But I've done the history. 558 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 2: My point is that over time things go on to 559 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 2: do better and big at Why because human ingenuity you 560 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 2: mentioned this before, Sonya. Unless we've hit peak ingenuity, unless 561 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 2: we've hit peak human development, human capacity, human potential. I 562 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 2: haven't even talked about AI. We won't. But man, I mean, 563 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 2: think about the opportunities that are coming for companies and 564 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: for people in a world where computer power is just 565 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 2: phenomenally large than it ever has been. If you're a 566 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 2: brave person to say, yeah, we hit peak capitalists, we 567 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: hit peak ingenuity, we hit peak development in twenty twenty four, 568 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 2: it's gonna be rubbish ever after. I mean, maybe it 569 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 2: will be, but jeers, there's a much chance of that 570 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 2: not really, So really, please please please look through the tariffs, 571 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 2: invest well, investing quality business. We talked about that, but 572 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 2: please do that. That's the point of the biggest takeaway 573 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 2: of the TARFFS. I hope so all the time we 574 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 2: spent on it is in hindsight they will think not 575 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: be as consequential to your wealth as you might think 576 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 2: fear looking forward because you can't see through them yet right, 577 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 2: so dot com crash, natact like eighty five percent. It 578 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 2: was an enormous wipeout right huge, and yet NAS it 579 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 2: went on a new Hives. The now the es people 580 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 2: in New Highs Yx went on New Hives. It wasn't 581 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 2: the Bill and end all. Now don't I don't like them, 582 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 2: I don't want them. I'm not saying we shouldn't have them. 583 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 2: If we didn't could avoid them, of course we shouldn't. 584 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 2: But if you can't avoid them, the nextperst thing is 585 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 2: to say they're here. What's the best way to make 586 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 2: the best of them? And there's likely to invest anyway. 587 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 2: I think on the lecture, I've probably cover enough of that. Mate. 588 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,959 Speaker 2: The best thing, as I said, is to separate your 589 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 2: policy or your political brain from your investing brain. Don't 590 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 2: overthink it, don't extrapolate too much. I've seen plenty of 591 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,360 Speaker 2: commentary on Twitter. Ah, this this, this party will kill 592 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 2: the economy, this party will kill it, and that, by 593 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 2: the way, both say about each other, because that's just 594 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 2: what we do. It's not going to happen. Right. Are 595 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 2: some better or worse than the economy? Maybe? Probably? Do 596 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 2: we know that yet? I don't even know if we 597 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 2: know that yet. But you know, more more broadly, despite governments, 598 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 2: despite crashes, despite tariffs, despite all this stuff, human engineering 599 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 2: works right. Churchill said, democracy is the worst system except 600 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 2: for every other system that's been tried. My versionay, is 601 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,679 Speaker 2: democratic capitalism right for all of its flaws, for all 602 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 2: of its problems, and I would fix them if I 603 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 2: had the choice. Maybe treasurer for six months is all 604 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,440 Speaker 2: they'd need. But despite all those things, it still goes 605 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 2: on to create enormous wealth for people if you are 606 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: part of the system. Why, because it harnesses all that 607 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 2: human capacity and potential. 608 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,360 Speaker 4: I think that people are really you know, the wealth 609 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 4: of experience. 610 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 3: Now that we have been through a few of these things, 611 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 3: I mean, we've caught up over the years about the 612 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 3: different periods of market volatility. So I mean, is there 613 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 3: anything you want to want to leave people with before 614 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 3: we wrap today? 615 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 2: The future is bright. The future is bright, and wins 616 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: for all the doom say. It's for all the doom 617 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 2: and gloomers, for all the perma bears, for all the 618 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 2: people who are Oh it's raining, it's raining. The skies falling, 619 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 2: Chicken little style, you know what. Bits of the sky 620 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 2: fall all the time, but the sky hasn't falling. The 621 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 2: future is bright. We will go on to bigger and 622 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 2: better and brighter things. You and I be talking in 623 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 2: five years time, Sonya and I we bet a reasonal 624 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: amount of money. The A six has hit another high, 625 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 2: probably another two or three on the way through. Maybe 626 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 2: it's even fallen out of ten percent on that journey 627 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 2: and come back up again. Vanguard have a great chart. 628 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 2: I've banged on about it before. It's called their thirty 629 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 2: year Index chart. Ten thousand dollars invested in nineteen ninety 630 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 2: four was one hundred and thirty thousand dollars. Hypothetical amount 631 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: ten grand became one hundred and thirty thousand dollars. Despite 632 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 2: all these things I talked about, it happened over that 633 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 2: thirty year period, right, a thirty fold increase. It's about 634 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 2: the wars and the terrorisms and the recessions and the 635 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 2: Covids and the all this stuff. Now, if you're added 636 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 2: money regularly, you're going to have even more than that. 637 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,120 Speaker 2: Now I'm not saying that'll be the next thirty years, 638 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 2: who knows. But also that average radar of that thirty 639 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 2: year period not dis similar to thirty years and the 640 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 2: thirties and thirty years before that. So the future is bright. 641 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 2: Optimism wins. Look through the clouds and make sure you 642 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 2: can see the long term value being built by companies 643 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: and people right across the world and particularly on our 644 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 2: stock exchanges. 645 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 3: So one thing that did stand out from the data 646 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 3: was around optimism for Australians and a group that felt 647 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 3: least optimistic, we're younger Australians. Do you have anything to 648 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 3: kind of share on that or what might be factoring 649 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: in the air. 650 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 2: I honestly, I started investing relatively early, but not as 651 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,360 Speaker 2: early as I should have. And I hate you because 652 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 2: we have our own podcast. I regularly abuse and when 653 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 2: they very very good naturedly when they ride in because 654 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,160 Speaker 2: they've got things. I want their time right. I want 655 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 2: to go back thirty years. I want to go and 656 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 2: invest more. I want to. I want to. I want 657 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 2: to set myself up even better because I know what 658 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 2: not because I know what the future did. Hat did bring, 659 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 2: but I know what the future can bring. If you're 660 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 2: a young person, I get By the way, why do 661 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 2: you feel Why do you feel bad? Housing is ridiculously expensive? 662 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 2: You've just seen the superannuation of fall. You haven't been 663 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 2: through these market cycles before, and you're like, oh my god, 664 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 2: this is investing. What are you people mad? Why would 665 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 2: I do this thing right? Why would I feel good 666 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 2: about this? So I get that. I absolutely get it, 667 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 2: because you know, again, the one benefit of age other 668 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 2: than dodgy knees and less hair is is you kind 669 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 2: of have been there before and you see it saying 670 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 2: to happen. So yeah, I'm incredibly envious with young people 671 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 2: because they've got all the time in the world, whether 672 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 2: it's through superannuational, compulsory savings, whether I said, their ownly investing, 673 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 2: just the passing of time, right, I am. I am 674 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 2: so optimistic. I've got a twenty nine year old, an 675 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 2: eleven year old, twelve year old now, and I am 676 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,560 Speaker 2: so jealous of their future because they have got an 677 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 2: amazing future ahead. And think about the technological changes. What's 678 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 2: going to happen in the world. Man, can you imagine it, 679 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 2: and yet they've got the time to actually enjoy that 680 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 2: and invest now. So what I want to say to 681 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 2: young people is retirement feels a very long time away. 682 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: That's why super is so great, because it makes you say, 683 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: when you're nineteen, you don't want to And I'm yet 684 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 2: to hear someone who's retired who hates superannuation. Please, people 685 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 2: working new, I want to have to put this money away. 686 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 2: If this is terrible, as horrible, I don't. I would 687 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 2: rather spend it. They get the hirement and go, oh man, 688 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 2: I am so glad there's superannuation. So if you're a 689 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 2: young person listening, please say the course. Please believe that 690 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 2: the future is bright. Please believe that we have a 691 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 2: system of democratic capitalism for all its failings, and we're 692 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 2: failing you on house prices right now, and change that 693 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 2: if I was in the Treasurer's chair for a while. 694 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 2: But investing will work for you. It will build wealth 695 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 2: over time. I can't give your carriage and allowed to 696 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 2: give you promises because otherwise the regulator will yell at me. 697 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: Let me just say, in my very very very very 698 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: very strong opinion, the future is very bright. You have 699 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 2: so much time on your hands. The last message is 700 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 2: please keep contributing, whether it's adding to your own super 701 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 2: or tributing, investing in your own name through chases or otherwise. 702 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 2: Please keep investing because the compound returns you get over time. 703 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 2: If you're listening to your twenty five now, you're probably 704 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 2: gonna live to your ninety five. And no retirement's at 705 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 2: the end. The retirement date is not the end of 706 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 2: your investing, right, it's about two thirds of the way 707 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 2: through your life. So you've got seventy five years to compound. 708 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 2: That is, do the mats on that, by the way, 709 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 2: it will blow your mind. And so yes, please be positive, 710 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 2: Please be optimistic. I know it feels like it sucks. 711 00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 2: Take it for an old person. Things will get better. 712 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 2: They will deliver plenty of returns. Your compound returns will 713 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 2: be spectacular. Stay the course, keep investing. It'd be absolutely 714 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 2: worth it. Your retired self, well, thank you, and maybe 715 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 2: you might have been think of me when I'm long 716 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 2: dead and in the grove. 717 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 3: I love that, and it gives me a chance to 718 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 3: slip in my favorite or on buffet quote, which is 719 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 3: someone sitting in the shade because they've planted a tree 720 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 3: many years ago. 721 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 2: So I get a T shirt with that on it, Sonia, 722 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 2: I wear a T shirt with that quote. I love 723 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 2: that quote. 724 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: It's so good but just. 725 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 3: Exactly what you're talking about, right, Like you don't know 726 00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 3: it at the time, but you know over time it plays. 727 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 2: Off plant the tree, baby, plant the thure, you know. 728 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 4: Thanks Scott, and thanks everyone for tuning in. 729 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 3: You can watch the episode on YouTube or listen in 730 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 3: on your favorite podcast at Leave us a message or 731 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 3: comment about what you'd like to hear in future episodes.