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Speaker 1: Next step in our year's long journey to try and

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Speaker 1: get this FTA with India. The government delegations landed in

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Speaker 1: New Delhi for the first in person round of negotiations.

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Speaker 1: The politics of it is interesting. The government, of course,

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Speaker 1: has promise this deal in their first term. So what

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Speaker 1: chance former trademan is to Tim Grosser, Well, there's Tim,

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Speaker 1: morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike.

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Speaker 1: What are your assessment of the chances?

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Speaker 2: Well, look, if past form were any guide, they would

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Speaker 2: not be very encouraging. But I think the landscape and

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Speaker 2: I'll elaborate in a second, but the landscape is changed

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Speaker 2: as a result of Trump's trade bombs, and I'm thinking

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Speaker 2: that will change the odds of pulling this off. And look,

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Speaker 2: it's a good idea anyway, to have a go whatever

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Speaker 2: the chances of success are, because this is the world's

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Speaker 2: emerging third largest economy and we are undoubtedly will have

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Speaker 2: a much bigger economic future with India regardless of how

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Speaker 2: the talks go.

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Speaker 1: Is the political overlayer problem for us? When you promise

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Speaker 1: it will be done term one, the pressure's on you

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Speaker 1: and the Indians know it, don't they.

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Speaker 2: Oh, Look, I don't think that's a real issue. The

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Speaker 2: negotiations will run their normal course of events, and as

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Speaker 2: long as the government's making a lot of progress in

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Speaker 2: the period of time, I don't think this is a

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Speaker 2: large issue. The larger issue is India with a track

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Speaker 2: record or walking away from negotiations. Is India now prepared

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Speaker 2: to move forward commensure it with its enormous future role

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Speaker 2: in global trade? And that is something that has to

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Speaker 2: be answered by India, not buy New Zealand exactly.

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Speaker 1: And as you would well understand, we then have a

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Speaker 1: deal versus a deal. I mean, just getting a deal

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Speaker 1: can't be hard if you're prepared to give everything away.

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Speaker 1: Do we get a good deal?

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Speaker 2: Well, we've We've got very little to give away because

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Speaker 2: already an open economy. The Indians will not do this

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Speaker 2: because they want better access to New Zealand. The Indians

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Speaker 2: will do this because they see a broad a strategic rationale.

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Speaker 2: And that's where I come back full circle. So look,

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Speaker 2: just go back on the history this, John Key and

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Speaker 2: I started a negotiation exactly on these lines in twenty ten.

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Speaker 2: The Indians, whoever track quick word of moving unbelievably slowly

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Speaker 2: on international trade issues, took this into ten rounds of negotiations.

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Speaker 2: The bilateral FDA was abandoned in twenty I think twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 2: when India joined the larger FDA idea of this Asia

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Speaker 2: Pacific thing called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which

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Speaker 2: involved China, the Southeast Asians, Australia and New Zealand. And

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Speaker 2: even that fell apart when India was invited to leave

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Speaker 2: the negotiations. So India has got this very protectionist history,

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Speaker 2: but I think India is coming out of that, out

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Speaker 2: of that, and I think there's a real chance of

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Speaker 2: pulling this off.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, Tim, Nice to talk to you again, Tim Grosser,

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Speaker 1: former Trade Minister. For more from the Mica King Breakfast,

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Speaker 1: listen live to News Talk Set B from six am weekdays,

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Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio