1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: Here a duper clan. Peter Lewis Asia Business Correspondents with US. 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: Hello Peter, Hello Heather, Peter. Now I'm looking at all 3 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: of this data that's coming out of China and it 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: just looks like a raft of bad news. 5 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: Is there anything good on there? 6 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 3: Well, it is a lot of data, and it's important 7 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 3: data as well, because it's for April. And you'll remember 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 3: back on the second of April, that's when Donald Trump 9 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 3: declared Liberation Day and that announced all these reciprocal tariffs 10 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 3: which went at one stage on China as high as 11 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty five percent before they were withdrawn 12 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 3: back down to about thirty percent. So the data gives 13 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 3: us an idea of what what's happening. A couple of things. 14 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 3: First of all, the impact of tariffs hasn't been as 15 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 3: bad as initially feared. An industrial production, which is a 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 3: measure of manufacturing and factory output, did better than what 17 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 3: put people some thoughts. Manufacturing was up about six point 18 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 3: six percent year on year, not a bad number, slowing 19 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 3: still in the collapsed exports have collapsed to the US 20 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 3: in that data. But what has happened is it's sort 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 3: of been offset by exports elsewhere, in particular Southeast Asia, 22 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 3: some of the emerging markets the Middle East. So what 23 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 3: we're seeing is that although shipping, shipments and exports to 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: the US are definitely slowing as you would expect with 25 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 3: those high tariffs, there are new markets that China is 26 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 3: finding to help offset that. And it just shows that 27 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 3: really President Eujinping's strategy is probably the right one, which 28 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 3: is basically working on a new global trading system that 29 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 3: just doesn't involve the US. If the US doesn't want 30 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 3: to trade with China fair enough, we'll go and trade 31 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 3: elsewhere and build up an alternative trading system. 32 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: How much appetite do you think there is amongst other 33 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: trading countries like ourselves, like Australia blah blah blah, to 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 2: actually lock in with with she on met. 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 3: I think there is some. I think have to be 36 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 3: careful about how far that will go, because countries like Australian, 37 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 3: New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and not natural political allies 38 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 3: of China, but at the same time that there are 39 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 3: big power in the Asian economic zone, in the in 40 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 3: the global zone, and therefore these countries do want to 41 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 3: trade with them and do need to trade with China 42 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 3: if it can, but it would also like to trade 43 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 3: with the US as well, which is more of a 44 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 3: natural political ally for for those countries. So they try 45 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 3: to tread a careful line between appeasing both and not 46 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 3: upsetting either. And perhaps the master of doing that, of 47 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 3: being able to trade with everyone is is India Uendo 48 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 3: Modi has you know, built up a you know, the 49 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 3: sort of the handbook of how to do this and 50 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 3: that and how to sort of get trade deals done 51 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 3: with almost everyone. 52 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 2: That it's a fair point listen I see g has 53 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: been stepping up this call for industrial self sufficiency. Is 54 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 2: this falling on diffis or is it actually working well? 55 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 3: It's working to a certain extent. There are things that 56 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 3: China can do to protect itself from these tariffs and 57 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 3: also not just twists, but from the blacklists that America 58 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 3: has put in Chinese companies. On companies like Lwei, for example, 59 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 3: they're not allowed to export their chips to the US. 60 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 3: Navidia is not allowed to sell its chips into China. 61 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 3: So there are certain things that China is good at. 62 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 3: So it needs to catch up. On semiconductors. It's nowhere 63 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 3: near as advanced as the US, but it is catching up. 64 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 3: It's taken the lead in certain areas. Electric vehicles stands 65 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 3: out really, they are the world leader now in electric 66 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 3: cars and they have stolen a big march we just saw, 67 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 3: and that they yesterday that BYD now sells more cars 68 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: electric vehicles into Europe than Tesla does, so they are 69 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,839 Speaker 3: really doing very well. Green energy is another area where 70 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: China is doing good ats but there are still plenty 71 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 3: of areas where it needs to sort of catch up 72 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 3: and it needs to modernize and it needs to become 73 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 3: self sufficient. But it's certainly making the right steps and 74 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 3: doing the right things to try and get there. 75 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: Fascinating stuff. Peter, thanks very much, look after yourself. We'll 76 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: talk to you in a week. That's Peter Lewis, our 77 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: Asia business correspondent. 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