Speaker 1: Kyoda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Today marks
Speaker 2: a year since the coalition government of National Act and
Speaker 2: New Zealand first took office. The coalition hit the ground
Speaker 2: running by reversing the previous Labor government's agenda in a
Speaker 2: policy bonfire, slimming down the public service and reverting many
Speaker 2: Crown organizations back to their English names. This and the
Speaker 2: scrapping of the Malti Health Authority kickstarted tensions between this
Speaker 2: government and Maldydom, with the backlash on the Treaty Principal's
Speaker 2: Bill only adding fuel to the flames earlier this month,
Speaker 2: but with wins around tax carts, benefits for families, more
Speaker 2: regional investment and new laws to tackle crime, there's plenty
Speaker 2: for the government to celebrate, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon
Speaker 2: saying this week he is aspirational for New Zealanders and
Speaker 2: energized for the next two years. To discuss how the
Speaker 2: coalition government has fared with all this in mind. Today
Speaker 2: on the Front Page, we're joined by political commentator and
Speaker 2: researcher Bryce Edwards. Bryce, what do you think of being
Speaker 2: the dominant themes for the first year of this government.
Speaker 3: Undoubtedly, when new governments come in, they want to roll
Speaker 3: back some of the more unpopular or problematic policies of
Speaker 3: the previous government. After all, a new government sees that
Speaker 3: they have a mandate and they have been elected to
Speaker 3: change things, and so, you know, reversals and rollbacks have
Speaker 3: been the main theme for the first year, particularly that
Speaker 3: first hundred days, in the first six months. And so
Speaker 3: when not yet seeing a full picture of what this
Speaker 3: government stands for beyond just changing what labor had done
Speaker 3: and making some I guess reforms, especially in the economy.
Speaker 3: And you know, it's got a character of a general
Speaker 3: right wing government. But as we've seen from a lot
Speaker 3: of critics from the right, this government isn't even necessarily
Speaker 3: appealing to all of its traditional supporters because we don't
Speaker 3: really see in this first year of government that there's
Speaker 3: necessarily a bold and strong vision for where they're going.
Speaker 3: So it's a year of yea, reforms, rollbacks, but nothing
Speaker 3: yet is clearly staking what this new government is about.
Speaker 2: Do you think that's because there are three of them,
Speaker 2: and with three of them in government, all of their
Speaker 2: hands are a bit tired.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's MMP that different parties have to
Speaker 3: work together, and of course there's areas where New Zealand
Speaker 3: First Act and National do have disagreements and therefore, yeah,
Speaker 3: some areas of reform are being ruled out essentially, yes,
Speaker 3: And of course you've got Christopher lux and the leader
Speaker 3: of the biggest party and Prime Minister is much less
Speaker 3: experienced than essentially his co leaders in the government. So
Speaker 3: it means that there's not the kind of hierarchy that
Speaker 3: you saw, for example, under the last Labor government when
Speaker 3: you had Jessindra a Durn clearly head and shoulders above
Speaker 3: all the other ministers. It's a bit flatter this government.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the dynamics of the coalition do
Speaker 3: mean that the colors aren't as clear as they might
Speaker 3: have been in a different government.
Speaker 1: Nikola Willis will deliver the half yearly Economic and fiscal
Speaker 1: update in about three weeks. She says that will illustrate
Speaker 1: the latest forecasts for a surplus and seems to caution
Speaker 1: against unrealistic expectations.
Speaker 4: I'm not going to chase a surplus at all costs,
Speaker 4: for casts move up and down. What I've committed to
Speaker 4: New Zealanders is that we will make sensible, prudent fiscal
Speaker 4: decisions to get the books back in balance over time.
Speaker 2: When it comes to the economy, look, Luxon looks to
Speaker 2: be taking credit for inflation dropping to two point two percent,
Speaker 2: saying I'm pleased with the progress we've made in just
Speaker 2: one year to deliver the outcomes kiwis deserve. Can you
Speaker 2: really take credit for that?
Speaker 3: Look, all prime ministers will take credit for positive things
Speaker 3: and try to blame the negative things on external factors.
Speaker 3: So it's no surprise. And I think it'd be fair
Speaker 3: to say that the government has focused on measures that
Speaker 3: will reduce inflation, and yeah, I think we have to
Speaker 3: give them some credit for that. But of course it's
Speaker 3: not just due to his finance minister. There were some
Speaker 3: changes happening in the global economy and inflation would have
Speaker 3: gone down even if the government hadn't have changed.
Speaker 2: So it's a bit cheeky that he's taking credit for it.
Speaker 3: Oh look, I know, I don't think so, because it's
Speaker 3: just what we expect from prime ministers. Any other politician
Speaker 3: would do the same thing. I think there is Yeah,
Speaker 3: definitely some some parts of the inflation for is due
Speaker 3: to some of the more austerity and some of the
Speaker 3: cutbacks and budget that the government have done. So no,
Speaker 3: I don't think it's entiny cheeky, but it's not the
Speaker 3: full story.
Speaker 2: No. Apparently eighty three percent of kiwis are benefiting from
Speaker 2: the tax relief package introduced earlier this year, at least
Speaker 2: according to Luxon. But we've also seen a group of
Speaker 2: economists come out last week criticizing the government's economic measures
Speaker 2: and as I quote, needlessly exacerbating the current recession. How
Speaker 2: is the government handling the economy?
Speaker 3: Do you think it's the economy that the three coalition
Speaker 3: partners rarely did ride to an election on. It's what
Speaker 3: they focused on of the last labor administration in their view,
Speaker 3: mismanaging it, and they managed to convince voters of that.
Speaker 3: And certainly the government has prioritized austerity measures and fixing
Speaker 3: the economy in their view. So yeah, yeah, I think
Speaker 3: the economy is rarely the one area that this government
Speaker 3: has a bit of an identity on that they are
Speaker 3: seen as strong managers. But the big question is about
Speaker 3: what they're going to do on the bigger picture with
Speaker 3: the economy, and that's where you've got a lot of economists,
Speaker 3: and some of those economists that spoke out last week
Speaker 3: tended to be on the left, but there are a
Speaker 3: number of more sympathetic economists or those on the right
Speaker 3: that are also incredibly critical of the economics of this government,
Speaker 3: especially because of their failure to deal with productivity, failure
Speaker 3: to deal with some of the monopolies, and lack of
Speaker 3: competition in some of the sectors now, especially in terms
Speaker 3: of banking, supermarkets, construction, and so there's a feeling that
Speaker 3: the government's been too mild and doesn't rarely have hasn't
Speaker 3: really arrived with any blueprint for actually reforming things rather
Speaker 3: than just tinkering.
Speaker 2: In September twenty twenty three, ram raids hit a two
Speaker 2: year low, with a seventy percent reduction in RAM raids
Speaker 2: since the peak of one hundred and sixteen a month
Speaker 2: in August twenty twenty two. Now, Luxon's including the reduction
Speaker 2: of RAM raids in his kind of Wins list as
Speaker 2: he reflects on the last year in government. Is he
Speaker 2: right to do that?
Speaker 3: Again? That's entirely unsurprising. This is a win for the government,
Speaker 3: and there's a bigger picture about whether it's all due
Speaker 3: to this current government, But it's what you expect from
Speaker 3: politicians that they will claim the credit and yeah, there's
Speaker 3: a large amount of truth that they have redeployed efforts
Speaker 3: to get those areas of crime down and again after
Speaker 3: the economy. It's law in order that this government and
Speaker 3: the three parties have rarely banged the drum on to
Speaker 3: get into power and now have put the resources into
Speaker 3: So yeah, by and large it is a bit of
Speaker 3: a success three for the new government after the one
Speaker 3: year in power.
Speaker 2: After one year, how are the three of them getting along?
Speaker 2: David Seymour this week told The Herald he was wrong
Speaker 2: about Winston Peters and that they have worked well together.
Speaker 2: Have you been impressed by the coalition's collaboration at this stage?
Speaker 3: Well, after a year, there isn't sign of a meltdown.
Speaker 3: There isn't really the sign of the chaos that its
Speaker 3: opponents and its critics were forecasting. So I mean, I'm
Speaker 3: not so surprised about that because I always thought that
Speaker 3: a lot of the beef and arguments between the likes
Speaker 3: of Winston Peters and David Seymour were more about politicking.
Speaker 3: They were more for an audience, and I've always thought
Speaker 3: they'd be able to work together once they were in
Speaker 3: the cabinet room, and it seems that they have. So
Speaker 3: there's no real signs of instability, no more than any
Speaker 3: usual coalition government.
Speaker 2: There have naturally been a few scandals for this government
Speaker 2: would have been the biggest scandals in your opinion.
Speaker 3: Well, it's probably the Casey Costello and tobacco reforms that
Speaker 3: I think have probably resonated and hurt the government the most.
Speaker 3: And so it brings up this idea of the government
Speaker 3: perhaps being in the pocket of the tobacco industry, of lobbyists,
Speaker 3: of vested interests, and I think people have been quite
Speaker 3: surprised to see that the government rolling back reforms on
Speaker 3: smoking and vaping, and whether it's the government failing to
Speaker 3: communicate why they've done that, or whether they are truly
Speaker 3: in the pocket of business interests, that's where they've been vulnerable.
Speaker 3: And I think there's a public feeling that Casey Costello, yeah,
Speaker 3: certainly hasn't one of the strongest cabinet performers. And yeah,
Speaker 3: I think she's been lucky to survive, largely because she's
Speaker 3: not a National Party minister, and so Luxon hasn't had
Speaker 3: the ability to demote her like he might have if
Speaker 3: she was a national MP. Essentially she is protected by
Speaker 3: being a protege or under the wing of Winston Peters.
Speaker 2: What about Luxeon, do you think he's ever going to
Speaker 2: live down taking that accommodation allowance so early on that was.
Speaker 3: Indeed quite a tarnishing of his reputation, and of course
Speaker 3: in the biggest scheme of things, you know, it might
Speaker 3: seem like a small amount of money that he was
Speaker 3: saying he was entitled to and initially claiming, but it
Speaker 3: did resonate with people that worried that the government might
Speaker 3: be too arrogant and too focused on personal aggrandizement or
Speaker 3: their own financial interests. And Luxeon himself was obviously quite
Speaker 3: shocked by the public reaction and he moved quickly eventually
Speaker 3: on it. But yeah, I think it is unfortunate for
Speaker 3: him because he is a very wealthy individual and he owns,
Speaker 3: you know what was at least seven houses at one stage,
Speaker 3: and so it builds into this public image of him
Speaker 3: being above society, richer than everyone else. And that's something
Speaker 3: that never really hampered John Key when he was Prime Minister.
Speaker 3: He was able to exude an ordinariness that I don't
Speaker 3: think Christopher Luxen quite has the ability.
Speaker 2: To do so tensions with Maldy. Is this probably the
Speaker 2: biggest fail by the government. I guess more so for
Speaker 2: lux and for agreeing to table the Treaty Principal's Bill
Speaker 2: in the first place.
Speaker 3: Right Yeah, I think in the media and the commentariat
Speaker 3: we have to be very careful about judging this government
Speaker 3: on the Treaty Principal's Bill and the recent HIKOI because
Speaker 3: they've been so big and colorful and it's dominated the media.
Speaker 3: We still don't really know how much that has affected
Speaker 3: ordinary voters. We still don't know whether having fifty or
Speaker 3: eighty thousand people marching in Wellington life, you know, whether
Speaker 3: it has tarnished this government or perhaps it might have
Speaker 3: even given some sympathy to the government, because you know,
Speaker 3: this is an issue that most voters don't really care
Speaker 3: that strongly about. Treaty issues. Race relations ethnicity aren't, according
Speaker 3: to any polls anyhow, very high on the lists of
Speaker 3: people's main concerns. Mostly they're concerned about the economy, healthcare, education,
Speaker 3: and it's become a bit of a cultural of course,
Speaker 3: But we still don't know how that affects the more
Speaker 3: centrist or swing voter. And yes, there's a lot of
Speaker 3: us that are very interested in this issue, but it
Speaker 3: could be the case that most New Zealanders don't rarely
Speaker 3: have a strong opinion or necessarily see this as the
Speaker 3: big mistake on either David Seymour or Christopher Luxon's part.
Speaker 2: Matthew Hordon wrote a scathing critique of Luxon last week
Speaker 2: that generated a lot of debate Amongst Harold readers. Here's
Speaker 2: just one quote. He said he will remain Prime Minister
Speaker 2: only because he lacks the self awareness to know it
Speaker 2: would be better for New Zealand and his own reputation
Speaker 2: to accept he is completely out of his depth. Is
Speaker 2: any of that fair?
Speaker 3: Oh? Absolutely, especially from the point of view of those
Speaker 3: on the right of politics that feel this government has
Speaker 3: not lived up to its reputation. And you know, there
Speaker 3: are people in the National Party and around ACT that
Speaker 3: feel that Luxon is far too centrist, far too much
Speaker 3: underperforming in terms of creating bold new changes. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I think what Matthew Houghton said will resonate with a
Speaker 3: lot of people on the right, but also yes, people
Speaker 3: on the left as well like to see the Prime
Speaker 3: Minister being criticized by someone like Matthew Houghton. So even
Speaker 3: though we've got a whole situation at the moment in
Speaker 3: New Zealand and this has been a very polarizing year
Speaker 3: in politics, it's not necessarily a simple left right polarization.
Speaker 3: There are people in all parts of the political spectrum
Speaker 3: that aren't necessarily thinking that this government has delivered.
Speaker 5: I think it's gone. We've done a good job. Actually,
Speaker 5: I think over the last year there's been a lot
Speaker 5: of challenge for us. We've inherited and we're working through
Speaker 5: some pretty tough and difficult times. But you know, the
Speaker 5: way that the coalition government has been formed, the way
Speaker 5: that we've got the right ministers and the right assignments
Speaker 5: for the right clarity about what they're there to do.
Speaker 5: I knowledge it's tough, but I think we're making progress
Speaker 5: and I think the plan's working.
Speaker 2: And what do you think are the big challenges in
Speaker 2: the next couple of years ahead.
Speaker 3: Well, this government still hasn't really stamped its mark to
Speaker 3: say what they're about. We still don't really have any
Speaker 3: great kind of ideological indepinds, branding or vision of what
Speaker 3: this government's going to achieve. I mean, we hear that
Speaker 3: Nikola willis and the next budget is going to deal
Speaker 3: with economic growth. They're going to bring in a lot
Speaker 3: more of the social investment program. It's yet to be
Speaker 3: seen whether that's going to resonate with people. And in
Speaker 3: the end, you know that they're going to be fighting
Speaker 3: some of those cultural wars that we've seen, especially around
Speaker 3: the Treaty. You know that's going to give this government
Speaker 3: a lot of challenges because we're now seeing where the
Speaker 3: resistance is coming to this government.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: When they first came into power, I sort of wondered, well,
Speaker 3: who's going to be leading the fight back against this government.
Speaker 3: To some extent, it's been the parties in Parliament, but
Speaker 3: I don't think they've been particularly strong. I wondered whether
Speaker 3: it was going to be the public service, the government
Speaker 3: departments that would feel aggrieved about some of the reforms
Speaker 3: this government are doing and as well as that all
Speaker 3: the cutbacks to departments. But it hasn't really been the
Speaker 3: public service. Likewise, academia, there's a lot of unhappiness in
Speaker 3: the universities, etc. And the education system about this government,
Speaker 3: but they don't really seem to be leading it. Leading
Speaker 3: the resistance that is the media I think leading it
Speaker 3: to some extent, but in the end it's turned out
Speaker 3: to be Ewi Tiao Mai in general are the main
Speaker 3: sort of focus for challenging this government, and of course
Speaker 3: you're having lots of other sectors that are sort of
Speaker 3: piggybacking on. But on top of the Hecoy etc. That's
Speaker 3: going to continue over the next two years, I'm not
Speaker 3: sure it's going to be a huge disadvantage to the government.
Speaker 3: Sometimes governments like to have enemies that they can then
Speaker 3: I guess demonize or get some sympathy because they're being
Speaker 3: hated on by those movements. So yep, the next two years,
Speaker 3: I think critics are going to point out some of
Speaker 3: the vested interests, the lack of integrity in the way
Speaker 3: that this coalition government is operating. Those on the right
Speaker 3: are going to complain about the lack of reforms, so
Speaker 3: the government really has to be more than a do nothing,
Speaker 3: tinkering government.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Bryce, Thanks Chelsea. That's it for
Speaker 2: this episode of the Front Page. You can read more
Speaker 2: about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld dot
Speaker 2: co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan
Speaker 2: Sells and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the front page on iHeartRadio
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
Speaker 2: for another look behind the headlines.