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Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge.

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Speaker 2: This gets to the markets nineteen after six for Shane

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Speaker 2: Solly Harbor Raset Management Shane good evening, get it right,

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Speaker 2: so do well. Bit of a surprise for the markets today,

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Speaker 2: wasn't it with the announcement the statement from the governor

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Speaker 2: at the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so new governor and a Bremen dilvid probably a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an early Christmas present for markets and

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Speaker 1: indeed the economy. By calling the risk of rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: What she said was in quite strongly worded comments, very

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Speaker 1: much sort of designed to push back on market pricing

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Speaker 1: of interest rate hikes. Next year, Governor Bremen reinforced the

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Speaker 1: official cash rate likely to remain at two twenty five

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Speaker 1: for some time. She said, the New Zealand economy is

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Speaker 1: in line with Novemburg expectations that market conditions have tightened

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Speaker 1: more than the manager policy statement imply so a bit

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Speaker 1: of a reprieve there. Markets reacted quite positively. We saw

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Speaker 1: probably the most important one for a mortgage holders, a

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Speaker 1: three year swap rate shoes as a reference point for

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Speaker 1: some bank mortgages. It fell just under zero point one

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Speaker 1: percent zero point nine to be act to three thirty

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Speaker 1: one still well above their recent love mid October and

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Speaker 1: two point six percent. New Zealand dollar pulled back a

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Speaker 1: little bit from its recent high as against the US

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Speaker 1: started to close at fifty seven to seventy. New Zealand

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Speaker 1: Shire market quite liked it almost one percent, led by

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Speaker 1: strength and fishing and Bocal Healthcare, which has benefiting from

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Speaker 1: unfortunately an outbreak of flu in the northern hemisphere looks

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Speaker 1: bad at milk and a bit of a bounce back

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Speaker 1: from recent weakness. And Auckland Airport was up on improving

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Speaker 1: traffic treams. So yeah, certainly the market's liked that update.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's just refreshing, isn't it really to have?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's actually very your helpful. It's a good

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Speaker 1: timing to be.

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Speaker 2: Doing this, absolutely, particularly because we've got to wait until

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Speaker 2: February before we get our next meeting. Now the PS

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Speaker 2: signed this is our performance of services in dix and

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Speaker 2: New Zealand. Data was released a bit soft again today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just telling us this service industry remains pretty mild.

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Speaker 1: Fell to forty six point nine and they've got down

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Speaker 1: from forty eight point four in October. Look, it's it's

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Speaker 1: reading below fifty that means we're contracting services index is

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Speaker 1: now read below fifty for twenty one straight months. This

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Speaker 1: is a real you know a lot of people out

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Speaker 1: there will know this, but this data remains pretty pretty challenging.

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Speaker 1: And so when we mix that with last week's stronger

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Speaker 1: manufacturing data, that sort of composite indicator suggests that we're

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Speaker 1: still going to see downside risk to even a modest

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Speaker 1: New Zealand growth number for early twenty twenty six. Governor

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Speaker 1: Breman's comments tonight today, we're pretty timely.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely much much needed given the state of play there,

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Speaker 2: and of course services is a big chunk of the economy.

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Speaker 2: To the US, the share market down last week. This

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Speaker 2: is on the soft tech results, yeah.

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Speaker 1: And down quarter percent zero point two five percent, but

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Speaker 1: really weighed by some of the artificial intelligence heavyweights like Auricon, Broadcom.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen some deflation in this US semiconductor share

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Speaker 1: price bubble that people are quite rightly focusing on. So

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Speaker 1: the semiconductor in DIX includes big companies like a Video

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Speaker 1: was down at six percent last week and that magnificent

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Speaker 1: seven group of companies, So it's quite a big chunk

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Speaker 1: of global shear market benchmarks that most qbs have a

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Speaker 1: growth and balance funds have an allocation too. But it's

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Speaker 1: been a really good place to invest Ryan over the

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Speaker 1: last twelve months. Indeed, you know that semiconductor in Dix

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Speaker 1: is up eighty one percent year to day, so a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a pullback after a big role. What

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Speaker 1: we are seeing the RYAN is a rotation of performance

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Speaker 1: to either industry seek the centers that benefit from lower

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Speaker 1: US federal interest rates strong reconod make it to be

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Speaker 1: things like financial as commodities industrials. So they are providing

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Speaker 1: a bit of a one office to the US tech pullback.

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Speaker 1: So you know, we can sort of breathe easily at

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Speaker 1: this stage. And there are other things still providing some

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Speaker 1: support for qbs however, and of course we've got chat

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Speaker 1: GPT five point two released overnight. It's got people very excited,

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Speaker 1: so you never know, you never know, all right.

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Speaker 2: We live in hope and also hope for a big

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six on the stock market, hopefully the local

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Speaker 2: economy as well. Shane, good to have you on the

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Speaker 2: program has always Shane's Soley Harbor Acent Management. For more

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Speaker 2: from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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