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Speaker 1: Employment number out today, Reserve Bank expecting an increase from

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Speaker 1: five point one to five point two. That's equal to

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Speaker 1: peak lockdown numbers. Mark Smith is ASB Senior economists with

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Speaker 1: US Mark.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning, Ryan.

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Speaker 1: So you're siding with the Reserve Bank, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: We're at five point two, but it can easily be

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Speaker 2: higher than that.

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Speaker 1: Does it matter?

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Speaker 2: It does matter. What it really shows is that the

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Speaker 2: economy has gone through a very difficult period. So over

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Speaker 2: the last twelve months or so, the economy on net

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Speaker 2: has lost more than thirty thousand jobs. Now, a lot

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Speaker 2: of those job losses have been concentrated for the very young,

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Speaker 2: those just joining the labor force, and also for some

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Speaker 2: secrets like construction and the wider good sector. So yes,

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Speaker 2: it does matter for those people.

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Speaker 1: When do you see because the economists is split on

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Speaker 1: when it peaks. When do you think it will peak?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a bigger knowing. There's a lot of fact

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Speaker 2: it's determining the numployment rate. Now we're hoping that that

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Speaker 2: freight will start moving low by the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: But what's been happening is recently with a lot of

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Speaker 2: trade disruptions and concerns about the economy, we'd actually see

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Speaker 2: firms hold back on hiring, and if anything, that unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate could get a little bit higher.

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Speaker 1: Still, we're still not even seeing job I mean we're

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Speaker 1: not that they have been increasing, but we're not seeing

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Speaker 1: job ads go boom yet, either, are we.

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Speaker 2: Yeah no, that's right. They are still well down on

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Speaker 2: where that were a while or so ago. Now we're

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Speaker 2: hoping to see the economy start to sort of sort

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Speaker 2: of ride itself towards in the year. But what could happen, though,

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Speaker 2: is if the economy remains weak for longer than than hoped,

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Speaker 2: we'd actually see the Reserve Bank revivable stimulus and what

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Speaker 2: they're previously indicated, if anything, the official cash rate at

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Speaker 2: full below three percent for the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think you might be right there.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Supply demand obviously for labor effects the price you pay

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Speaker 1: for it, so don't expect the big pay rise this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. If anythink labor cost or roads, wage

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Speaker 2: growth will get the lowest in at least three years.

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Speaker 2: And what we were really thing is pretty sharp accelerations

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Speaker 2: and those and those wage increases. So the power, if

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Speaker 2: you like, the Biden power still from the favor employers,

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Speaker 2: and what they're doing is making you sure that you know,

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Speaker 2: with inflation falling, the need for wage increases, certainly not there.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate your thoughts. Mark Mark Smith ASB Senior Economists with

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Speaker 1: us this morning. For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge,

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Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks it'd be from five am weekdays,

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