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Speaker 1: Monday morning is Prime Minister time and he is in

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Speaker 1: the studio once again with this good morning to you.

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Speaker 1: Can I just give you the smallest amount of advice

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Speaker 1: take it or leave it, But I'm here to help.

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Speaker 1: So I'm watching you yesterday at your railway crossing and what.

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Speaker 2: A stand up that was.

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Speaker 1: And so so I'm watching the railway crossing is down,

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Speaker 1: and I thinking to himself, So the boots I can

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Speaker 1: forgive you because you were a spade and I get it.

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Speaker 1: And you've got a nice pair of brogues. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to ruin those. So I get that high vers

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Speaker 1: ves seems.

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Speaker 3: To be a thing.

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Speaker 2: Jack it off.

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Speaker 3: No, no, you can do all of that.

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Speaker 1: But what's the safety glasses for? What was the problem

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Speaker 1: with the same What was going to happen with a space?

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Speaker 2: I literally get there, I show up, I say hello

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Speaker 2: to some people, I get handed some stuff to put

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Speaker 2: on right, and I don't know. I guess maybe as

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Speaker 2: I put the shovel into the ground, were worried about

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Speaker 2: a stuff.

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Speaker 1: And a stone clicking out. I just I thought, mate,

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Speaker 1: you're overly dressed for a space. Yes, driving a digger, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'd get it.

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Speaker 2: I think the I think the safety goggles with the

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Speaker 2: hard hats and the high versts on the test train

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Speaker 2: ride of the CRL was really quite something. So Winston

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Speaker 2: may have had a point about that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now the events Sadema I'm watching over the weekend

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Speaker 1: Saldema isn't the hotel chain said Auckland. And so you've

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Speaker 1: got this two speed economy and we'll come to the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank in a moment. So they're saying we are

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Speaker 1: desperate for events. If you have events, we will fill

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Speaker 1: hotel rooms. So I'm reading over the weekend, we've got

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Speaker 1: too many hotels in Auckland. We haven't gotten up in Queenstown.

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Speaker 1: Is there something that we need to do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's the sort of thing that we're open

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Speaker 2: to looking at. And I know Louise Upston's thinking about

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Speaker 2: the Major Events Fund in particular because I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I think that is something that is genuinely stimulating economic

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Speaker 2: activity versus rinkerdink you in this point when it's tough

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Speaker 2: in Auckland, there's a whole bunch of calls for the

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Speaker 2: stimulatory spending and doing stuff you can do crazy cost

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Speaker 2: of living payments like we saw under the last lot

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Speaker 2: or you can genuinely do things like that, and I

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Speaker 2: think we should rethink our whole major events. And you

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Speaker 2: need to because it's a pipeline of activity. You've actually

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Speaker 2: got to stuff it with things that may not pay

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Speaker 2: off just this month, but actually will pay off in

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Speaker 2: a year or two ahead as well. And you've got

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Speaker 2: a signal that. So I've asked for a total rethinker

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Speaker 2: on major events. The model that I looked at was

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Speaker 2: actually I spoke to about it before as Victoria under

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Speaker 2: Jeff Kennett. They had a major event every quarter, they

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Speaker 2: had medium events every month, they had micro events every week.

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Speaker 2: And that's the kind of thing that we've got to

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Speaker 2: really think about that major events.

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Speaker 3: Are we thinking about it or we're doing it?

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Speaker 2: No, we're doing it. So so Louise Upston as Tourism

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Speaker 2: and Hospitality and of us her to run the Major

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Speaker 2: Events Fund as well and think about what more we

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Speaker 2: can do in that space.

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Speaker 1: So on Friday we get the banking inquiry. This is

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Speaker 1: cross party. There is no magic bullet. I've been trying

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Speaker 1: to say this long. This thing that Nicol has gotten

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Speaker 1: I think you've brought into as well, that there's some

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Speaker 1: sort of scam out there in the banking world clearly

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Speaker 1: is not true. They looked for a year to find something,

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Speaker 1: they couldn't find it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look this, I mean they came out with nineteen recommendations.

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Speaker 2: Of course, a lot of it was pretty similar to

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Speaker 2: the fourteen that the Commerce Commission had done with their

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Speaker 2: market study. Yet we need more innovation open banking, you know,

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Speaker 2: get rid of some AML stuff that's constraining stuff. Again,

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Speaker 2: A big thing is really the Reserve Bank of New

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Speaker 2: Zealand's capital rules review, which is going on. They'll announce

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Speaker 2: where they are with their proposals to good which will

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Speaker 2: be good.

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Speaker 3: You know what that announcement is.

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Speaker 2: No, not really, but I know I've I got a

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Speaker 2: sense of where it'll go. But I haven't seen the

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Speaker 2: detail of the report or anything like that. But I

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Speaker 2: think you've seen people say, hey, lit, those settings are

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Speaker 2: way too conservative. Agreement that's actually drives up the cost

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Speaker 2: and it also costs risks for agricole exactly.

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Speaker 1: The actual problem was Adrian or money for a rainy day.

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Speaker 1: We know banks are profitable. There isn't a problem. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you guys have overstoked. That's happened to you. There isn't

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Speaker 1: a scandal in the banking sector.

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Speaker 2: No, but as a government we should make sure that

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Speaker 2: everything is the settings are as competitive as they possibly

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Speaker 2: can be. And genuinely, those are things like the open

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Speaker 2: banking piece of your ability to move your information and

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Speaker 2: accounts around the fact that banks when they're praising you

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Speaker 2: for a loan should have the same criteria. All those

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Speaker 2: things don't sound that sexy, but they all add up

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Speaker 2: to make a much more competitive setting. Obviously, we've got

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Speaker 2: the five hundred million dollar capital raise for Kiwibank. That's

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Speaker 2: up to four billion dollars, that creates four billion dollars

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Speaker 2: more lending, its ten billion dollars with a household lending.

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Speaker 2: That's actually quite material in terms of impact that it has.

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Speaker 1: One analyst over the week and said that it just

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Speaker 1: makes another big bank. Nothing changes. So I mean nothing.

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Speaker 3: I mean good on you. I don't mind.

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Speaker 1: If they're big and they're successful, fantastic, Let them be successful.

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Speaker 1: But if there's no fundamental core problem with the industry

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Speaker 1: you tinkering with it doesn't actually change.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't know.

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Speaker 2: But when you've got fourteen things that have come out

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Speaker 2: of Commerce Commission, when youve got nineteen things that have

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Speaker 2: come out of a Slip Committee inquiry, and there are

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Speaker 2: some common sense things about regulatory settings that we can adjust.

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Speaker 2: We should do that. Obviously, Keewi Bank can get an

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Speaker 2: in capital. Obviously the Reserve Bank of New Zealand thinking

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Speaker 2: about its capital rules. All of that is very helpful, okay,

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Speaker 2: and we should. You know, our job is to make

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Speaker 2: sure the operating system is as competitive as it possibly

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Speaker 2: can be by each sector fair enough.

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Speaker 1: And with the announcement today from the Reserve Bank, if

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Speaker 1: they don't curtail some of that money put aside for

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Speaker 1: a rainy day, you're not going to be a happy

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Speaker 1: prime minister.

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Speaker 2: Correct, Correct? I mean I think the settings have been

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Speaker 2: too conservative, and I think that came through actually in

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Speaker 2: the Sleep Committee inquiry. When you look at agricultural lending,

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Speaker 2: for example, it's not just about the capital requirements. It's

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Speaker 2: also been about the risk assessment that they do as well, and.

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Speaker 1: So can you can you instruct that because the argument

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Speaker 1: is that it's a greater risk lending to a farm

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Speaker 1: than it is to a Bloken pons and b downtown

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Speaker 1: buying their first house.

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Speaker 3: Is that true or not in your view?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean it depends, But I mean I don't

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Speaker 2: think that. I think that's been one of the issues

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Speaker 2: that we've highlighted as hells and that doesn't all feel right.

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Speaker 2: It's set. I mean you're looking at look at the

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Speaker 2: royal economy at the moment, it's a pretty good place

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Speaker 2: to see receive.

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Speaker 1: But the difference is with with the reserve money from

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank. That's a specific policy that the retail

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Speaker 1: banks have got to follow.

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Speaker 2: They've got to hold more capital, which means they have

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Speaker 2: to pass that on with higher costs at higher interest rate.

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Speaker 1: Seeing the rural community though, as a higher risk is

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Speaker 1: an approach from the retail bank, and that's an attitude.

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Speaker 1: You can't legislate or regulate attitude.

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Speaker 2: Can you know that some of the capital rule settings

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Speaker 2: have actually led to them assessing risk very differently by

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Speaker 2: sector and some of that's not right. And so I

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Speaker 2: think you'll actually see a much I hope you'll see. Well,

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Speaker 2: I like to see is actually a much more pragmatic

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Speaker 2: you know.

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Speaker 3: What's going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Well, why do you tell me you don't know what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen when I haven't seen the report. But

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Speaker 2: I'm just saying I think all of us a number

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Speaker 2: of places. That's come from so many different places. Hey, listen,

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Speaker 2: these capital rules that were put in place by Robertson

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Speaker 2: and Awe actually have actually driven up interest rates in

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Speaker 2: high cost of ending. This it does need to be revisited.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the Reserve Bank, the other thing that was

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Speaker 1: fascinating last week was you were busy telling us what

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Speaker 1: a great day it was because Christine had done another

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Speaker 1: twenty five points. Why can't you? I know why you can't,

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Speaker 1: but why don't you because you must be tempted to

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Speaker 1: say what he really should have done is fifty when

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Speaker 1: he didn't do a damn thing, when he missed the

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Speaker 1: whole economy going backwards, and that was his job then,

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Speaker 1: and he's not doing his job properly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I meet with him once before any of

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Speaker 2: those sort of announcements happened, and I can often give

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Speaker 2: my views in that case, but to do it, yep.

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Speaker 2: But that's me giving my reconds and my perspective. Which

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Speaker 2: but what was interesting was you would have seen they

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Speaker 2: published that actually two of the six four voter for

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Speaker 2: twenty five and he voted for fifty.

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Speaker 1: You know, but that doesn't fix your problem? Is the

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Speaker 1: economy stall? Because he's not doing his part or they're

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Speaker 1: not doing their part.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, yeah, well, I hear that frustration.

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Speaker 2: I get that, but these but it's also got two

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Speaker 2: more shots before Christmas. Son. Ye, you're too late. No,

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Speaker 2: I get may I get you. Do you agree with me?

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Speaker 2: Well I personally, yeah, I do, Yeah, I do, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I do. I think And is that what you told

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Speaker 2: him in the meeting pretty much? Yep, right, So that's fine.

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Speaker 2: So I can give my views, but I respect the

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Speaker 2: independence of the Reserve under legislation.

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Speaker 1: But you're the one who's going to lose your job

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Speaker 1: next year if the economy doesn't come right because some

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Speaker 1: people didn't do their job properly at the right time

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Speaker 1: because they couldn't see a contraction. How you're at the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank and you fail to see an economy going

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Speaker 1: backwards is beyond me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. We had very strong growth at the end of

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Speaker 2: last year, or it got stronger in the first quarter

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Speaker 2: of this year. We hit April Liberation Day, no doubt

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Speaker 2: about it. I reckon the economy is contracted over April, June, July, April, May, June, July,

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Speaker 2: we're now growing July August. The supporter will be growing again.

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Speaker 1: You believe them, So you think you think Q three

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Speaker 1: is okay again?

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Speaker 3: Four three better.

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Speaker 2: I think Q two was probably contracted slightly. I think

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Speaker 2: Q three will be positive slightly and Q four is

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Speaker 2: looking really good. And if you look at that forecast,

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Speaker 2: you know they're still saying you're on track for two

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Speaker 2: point seven percent growth over the next average over the

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Speaker 2: next few years, the two forty thousand jobs.

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Speaker 1: And do you know why I don't believe that, because

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Speaker 1: if we're on growth track for to owner, god, I

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Speaker 1: hope I'm wrong. If we're on track for two point

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Speaker 1: sent percent growth, we're outgrowing Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So you don't look convinced either, do you You.

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Speaker 2: No, No, I do no. I look at the Australian

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Speaker 2: budgets and you're looking at an Australian budget where they're

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Speaker 2: not in surplus for ten years. They're talking about a

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Speaker 2: one trillion to one point two trillion dollar deficit. You're

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Speaker 2: looking at a growth rate that is going to be

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Speaker 2: really comparable, if not ahead of where Australia is. That's

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Speaker 2: quite reasonable. So I mean, yeah, I get it, but

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Speaker 2: I think we actually have done a lot of the

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Speaker 2: right things that we had to deal with to sort

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Speaker 2: the medic to take our medicine, to deal with that

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Speaker 2: recession that was created artificially, that was worse than it

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Speaker 2: needed to be. I think we're doing the right things

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Speaker 2: for the long term, some of those RMA reform, educational reforms,

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Speaker 2: what we're doing on trade and investment. You know, our

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Speaker 2: exports are up seven to nine percent this year. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of good stuff going on in the economy,

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Speaker 2: and there's also signs that activities coming back to the

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Speaker 2: economy as well.

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Speaker 1: Just real quick, the electricity authority who announced that investigation,

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Speaker 1: where were they last winter?

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Speaker 3: In the winter before? Were they asleep?

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Speaker 2: Well, we've had an almighty come to Jesus ch Since

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Speaker 2: last year, we've been a series of electricity meetings and

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Speaker 2: energy because we shouldn't have an electricity problem or an

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Speaker 2: energy crisis in New Zealand when we've got abundant natural resources,

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Speaker 2: you know. So, yeah, we put a strategic coal reserve

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Speaker 2: in place to make sure that I'm sorry, did you

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Speaker 2: put a rocket under the electricity authority? We've sufficed to say,

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Speaker 2: we've had a series of meetings in my office.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the only thing you can do to make me happy.

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Speaker 1: This morning is announced that foreign buyers are going to

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Speaker 1: be able to buy a house can.

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Speaker 2: And it is coming so close. I'm telling you, Mike,

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Speaker 2: we weeks, how weeks away?

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Speaker 3: How many two or three?

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Speaker 2: It could be done? Two to three weeks, two to

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Speaker 2: three weeks. Do you know the date?

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Speaker 3: Yes?

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 3: Is it announced on a Sunday?

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Speaker 2: I will make sure you know him in advance only.

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Speaker 3: I'm available now.

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Speaker 2: I can't tell you now, but I tell you it's

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Speaker 2: coming besides.

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Speaker 1: Christmas, but it's coming before Christmas.

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Speaker 3: To see you.

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Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

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