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Speaker 1: With US now shown solely harbor asset management. Hi, Shane,

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Speaker 1: how are you that all right? So have the markets

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Speaker 1: reacted to the US tariff changes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an interesting one, but positive, positive, but cautious

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Speaker 2: is probably the best way putting it, given us on

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Speaker 2: off well, more like off on type nature of the announcement.

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Speaker 2: So Friday we saw the US SHEHA market up zero

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Speaker 2: point seven percent after the Supreme Court overturned the APA

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Speaker 2: composed tariffs and as the Trump come out so well,

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Speaker 2: that's all right, I'm going to do ten percent on

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Speaker 2: the section on two of the balance of payment stack,

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Speaker 2: and then over the weekend you see he's going to

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Speaker 2: increase that to fifteen percent. A ten percent tariff cut

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Speaker 2: rate would have been helpful for New Zealand, give them.

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Speaker 2: We're on fifteen. So we're back on fifteen one where

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Speaker 2: it has been beast for is Asian supply chain countries,

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Speaker 2: which are on more like twenty percent plus. So if

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Speaker 2: they're on fifteen, that's good. It's good for US firms

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Speaker 2: and consumers, and we actually saw that part of the

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Speaker 2: US economy do well anything exposed to that Asian supply chain.

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Speaker 2: But look, tariff probably going to remain a short term

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Speaker 2: source of volatility.

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Speaker 1: I thinkgether what about the refunds, I mean, what does

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Speaker 1: that mean for the US government's financial position.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the outstanding that certainly the Supreme Court didn't

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Speaker 2: address this. It's estimate it's about one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: billion of tariffs that are subject to potential refund in. Certainly,

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Speaker 2: I think that it's going to end up in the

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Speaker 2: Court of International Trade. It's probably going to see a

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Speaker 2: lot of firms spend a lot of money to try

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Speaker 2: and get that tariff back. Interestingly, Scott Trudury, Secretary has said, look,

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Speaker 2: these changes are going to be all pretty neutral for

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Speaker 2: the US fiscal situation, so he's not letting on about

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Speaker 2: any tax refunds, that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: And the changes, the tariff changes have any particular implications

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Speaker 1: for New Zealand or New Zealand companies.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think it is good for our manufacturers

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Speaker 2: like Pessional biple and scale up and produce exports like

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Speaker 2: skulls and sample. But well, the tariffs might be less worse,

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Speaker 2: either lower or for a shorter duration because the one

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Speaker 2: twenty two doesn't have the same duration of time. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to see some more detail. You know a lot

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Speaker 2: of businesses that may have pushed through price increases to

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Speaker 2: try and recover some of that terriffs, so they might

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Speaker 2: actually have to give a little bit of this back.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, we're going to find out interesting today here

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Speaker 2: that Fish and Pikor came out with quite a nice

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Speaker 2: profit upgrade, taking profit up to four fifty to four seven.

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Speaker 2: E mail share prices up almost four percent, and they

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Speaker 2: didn't actually allow for any potential terror free funds. So

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Speaker 2: assuming how four fit does.

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Speaker 1: Okay, what are the markets allowing for in terms of

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Speaker 1: a strike on a Ran?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, you know markets who have been a little

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Speaker 2: bit weary last week, but nothing major. We did see

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Speaker 2: the US shear market perhaps not as strong as it

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Speaker 2: would have been last month, our last week, i should say,

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Speaker 2: in anticipated of a risk. But overnight mister Trump has

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Speaker 2: come out and sit he's leaning towards an initial Iran

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Speaker 2: strike and coming days. What we're seeing right now is

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Speaker 2: the US shear market futures that gives us an indication

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Speaker 2: of what might happen. They're down between a half percent

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Speaker 2: and one percent. Maybe that's about terrifying certainty, but it's

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Speaker 2: also about Iran. Probably One of the interesting ones is

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Speaker 2: what the capital markets are thinking about oil prices and

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Speaker 2: the oil supply risk of disruption West Texas intermediate oil

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Speaker 2: that's one of the benchmarks that's hovering around sixty six

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel US. It's off recent lows of fifty five,

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Speaker 2: but it's not the three year avenues, more like seventy two,

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Speaker 2: so the market's not getting too worked up just yet.

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Speaker 2: That's good to hear.

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Speaker 1: Hey, thank you very much, Shane. Always appreciate having a

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Speaker 1: chat with you.

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Speaker 2: That.

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Speaker 1: Shane Soley of Harbor Asset Management. For more from Hither

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Speaker 1: Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be

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