1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: Big day today for Christopher Luxon kicking off his political calendar. 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: I suppose he sort of did that with a reshuffle 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: on Sunday, but today is the State of the Nation address, 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: and if the cabinet reshuffle was anything to go by, 5 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: it looks like growth, growth, growth will be on the agenda. 6 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: There's been lots of talk, not much action. What's going 7 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: to happen, what will be delivered? Will find out. Tim 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: Hurdle is with us, the former National Party senior advisor, 9 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: and Josie beganni political commentator, Good morning, Good morning morning, Tim. 10 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: What do you think he's going to say today. 11 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 2: I think he's going to try and create a story 12 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 2: around some of the actions they've taken as a government 13 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: and weave that into an economic plan and try and 14 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 2: give some confidence and certainty about what the government's going 15 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: to do in the next twelve months to drive economic 16 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 2: growth in the economy. 17 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 1: Josie, will people listen to his message? 18 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 3: Well, I think we're all saying I mean, over Christmas, 19 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 3: Ryan people talked about this all the time, right, I mean, 20 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 3: our kids are leaving the country, they haven't got decent jobs, 21 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: We're not growing. It feels like we're in a hole. 22 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: So I think he's talking about the right thing, absolutely, 23 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 3: And to paraphrase Paul Krugman, the economist, he said, you know, 24 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 3: productivity isn't everything, but it almost is. And that's what 25 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: we're really talking about, getting more value out of the 26 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 3: things that we put in. So that's labor, that's the 27 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 3: hours that we work, it's the jobs that we do. 28 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,279 Speaker 3: So he's definitely talking about the right thing. And once, 29 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 3: thank god, we've stopped the kind of gibberous economics around 30 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 3: de growth, you know, the sort of circular economy donat 31 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 3: economics thing where we're meant to be richer if we 32 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: made less because we need the money to do the 33 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 3: things we love. Right I'm in schools, hospitals, building stuff 34 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 3: and higher wages. I think the problem they've got is 35 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: I don't really know what their theory of growth is 36 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 3: because it's not spending more. We know that they haven't 37 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 3: got an industrial policy like every other government does at 38 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 3: the moment, they don't like to have an active government 39 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 3: that invests, picks winners, you know, back certain sectors. So 40 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 3: I think we need to hear what is the plan, 41 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 3: what's your theory of growth? How do you think you're 42 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 3: going to grow the country. What are you going to 43 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 3: do about our current account deficit? And it can't just 44 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 3: be about tourism. 45 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: No, they have said, to be fair that that is 46 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: a short term sugar hit. I suppose the tourism one 47 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: one that you can potentially turn around really quickly. Tim 48 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: is it important because what we're hearing is today he's 49 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: going to say, if you want all these great things, 50 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: the social services, the healthcare, etc. We're going to have 51 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: to do some stuff that you won't like, i e. Mining. 52 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: Is this the way that he needs to start framing 53 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: this debate? 54 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the problem is with the economy is that 55 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: the things that make money are not really tourism. Tourism 56 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 2: you get a lot of low wage jobs. If we 57 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 2: really want to be a high wage economy, we have 58 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: to be doing things, and the part of the economy 59 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: that makes the most money's actually mining. But really we 60 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 2: need to get into the tech sector and those high 61 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 2: tech jobs that are fueling economic growth around the world, 62 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 2: and the services sector. And so that might mean changing 63 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: what the emphasis is on some of the stuff we 64 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 2: do today and trying to find new sectors of the 65 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 2: economy that are driven off innovation growth and potentially initially 66 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 2: some of those extractive industries which are a bit of 67 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 2: challenge for KIWIS because we certainly haven't shown a big 68 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 2: apetite for mining in the past. 69 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: No, we haven't. But I guess if you can reframe it, 70 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: then maybe you'd get some people on board. What about 71 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: the speaking of getting people on board, Josie, that poll 72 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: that had national down in twenty nine or something. Do 73 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: you think, because obviously there is a bit of discontent 74 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: out that you would have heard it from people over 75 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: Christmas too, over the summer break. Do you think that's 76 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: just the sign of the economic times or do you 77 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: think it's something to do with Luxeon in particular. 78 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: I think Luxeon's got nothing to lose now right. He 79 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 3: needs to step up into a real leadership role and 80 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 3: that means exactly what Tim was saying, where you've actually 81 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: got to make tough choices. And the thing about growth, 82 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: if you're going to make growth the number one priority, growth, growth, growth, 83 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 3: then there's some things you're not going to do, or 84 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 3: you're going to do some things that might be a 85 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 3: bit unpalatable for some people. And that's leadership. So you know, 86 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: leadership isn't actually being liked or being popular all the time. 87 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 3: It's actually going right, we've got a real problem, and 88 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: we're going to prioritize you know, X, Y and Z. 89 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: So I think if he can do that, and if 90 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 3: you can take the country with him, that's the kind 91 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 3: of vision that we've been looking for from him. And 92 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 3: he needs to look at countries like you know, South Korea, Singapore. 93 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 3: We talk about these all the time. You build out 94 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 3: from your point of unique difference. South Korea they create 95 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 3: the government invested heavily in auto industries in the seventies. 96 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 3: Singapore they said, right, we're a port. We're going to 97 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 3: build out from that, and now they're a financial hub 98 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 3: and a pharmaceutical hub globally. So that's the kind of 99 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 3: vision we're looking for from him. And yes, there will 100 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 3: be tough decisions to make. 101 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: Tim. What's one really unpopular policy you think you should too, 102 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: he should do? 103 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 2: Oh, that's not the kind of thing I like to 104 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 2: advise on. I just think that we need to think 105 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 2: a lot more about the We tend to spend a 106 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 2: lot of time thinking about growing sectors we've already got. 107 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 2: We need to think a lot more about getting involved 108 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 2: in the sectors that are growing the economy. What's the 109 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 2: biggest wealthiest parts of the American economy today, it's it's 110 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 2: the it's the tesla's, it's the inveders, it's the it's 111 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 2: the meta. Those are the ones that worth the billions 112 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: of dollars. They're not growing dairy cows or trying to 113 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: grow more fruit. They're really thinking really hard about how 114 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 2: do you transform into an economy that creates high wage jobs. 115 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 2: And those are quite different things from probably what we 116 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 2: target in New Zealand. We still talk about existing exports 117 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 2: a lot. 118 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, should we offer them tax breaks to come here? 119 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's what the worst thing is. 120 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 2: The worst thing is government's trying to pick one is 121 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 2: it just never works. And you can go through the 122 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 2: examples over and over again of governments deciding they know 123 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 2: what they do and they end up investing in stuff 124 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: that goes horribly wrong, and then it's on the front 125 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: page of the New Zealand Herald or Ryan Bridges interviewing 126 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: someone about about how much money was wasted. 127 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: Some e byte company, And to. 128 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 3: One thing I'd say about that low tem is that 129 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 3: you're right, you know, governments can't just pick winners on 130 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 3: their own. They've got to do it in consultation with business, 131 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: with communities, with you know, experts in a particular sector. 132 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 3: So that's right, but they do if you look at 133 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 3: countries like South Korea, like Singapore, they did ACT, the 134 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: government was very active and intervened in the market. And 135 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 3: some of the problem for national I think and definitely ACT, 136 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: is that they don't actually believe in active governments doing much. 137 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 3: So that's the problem. You can't do transformation unless you're 138 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 3: going to do that. The key is to also let 139 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 3: losers go. So that's what you know. Tesla had a 140 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 3: lot of government support in terms of the R and 141 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 3: D in Tesla, so you back that. But then the 142 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 3: company that fell over recently that did solar panels had 143 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 3: also had government backing in the US what it's called 144 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 3: now Solnin or something. That was one where the government 145 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 3: should have dropped it straight away the minute it wasn't delivering. 146 00:06:57,839 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 3: And so you've got yes, I think you can pick, 147 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 3: but you've got to let the losers go. But the 148 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 3: problem for this government is they I don't really believe 149 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 3: in intervening in the market at all. So you know, 150 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 3: they've got a. 151 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: Problem and the other thing, I suppose they've got a 152 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: bit of a rock and a hard place situation between them. 153 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: You know, they've got the sort of more nationalist approach 154 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: from New Zealand first on one side and then the 155 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: free market liberals on the other. Tim Hurdle, thank you 156 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: very much for your time this morning, former National Party 157 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: senior advisor and Josie Biganni political commentator. That speech from 158 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: lux and if anyone wants to go, it's one hundred 159 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: and forty issues sold out, but it was one hundred 160 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: and forty dollars a ticket to go and have lunch 161 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: and listen to the State of the Nation's speech by 162 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: our Prime Minister happening at one o'clock today. For more 163 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks 164 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 165 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.