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Speaker 1: About these NB figures around the future of our use

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Speaker 1: of power. So by twenty fifty, here's the claim. By

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Speaker 1: twenty fifty, we're going to use eighty percent more than

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Speaker 1: we currently do. So how's this going to happen? The

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Speaker 1: Market Manager Evidence and Insights at MB Mike Haywood, is

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Speaker 1: with us on this Mike morning.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike.

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Speaker 1: How concrete are the numbers? How confident do you feel

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Speaker 1: about them?

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Speaker 2: They represent a range of scenarios the MBS investigator in

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Speaker 2: terms of our abilities to meet future electricity demand and

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Speaker 2: the generation build that we need in order to meet

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Speaker 2: that demand.

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Speaker 1: See twenty five years out. If you go back twenty

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Speaker 1: five years, say to the beginning of two thousand, we

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Speaker 1: hadn't heard of AI and we didn't know that AI

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Speaker 1: generated or needed the sort of generation of power. So

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Speaker 1: who's to say what happens in the next twenty five years?

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Speaker 2: And that is the important part about having a range

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Speaker 2: of scenarios that look at a range of different future

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Speaker 2: future positions for the New Zealand's electricity see and to

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Speaker 2: investigate those and map out what we could possibly see

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Speaker 2: in terms of future demand for electricity.

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Speaker 1: So we're talking about a range here say, data centers.

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Speaker 1: How many data centers are going to be here and

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Speaker 1: does data center power use change in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of decades do we know or not know?

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Speaker 2: So we've certainly had a lot of signals from the

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Speaker 2: market that there is an interest in building data centers

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Speaker 2: and in growth in data centers in New Zealand. That

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Speaker 2: has an impact on our generation required or to meet

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Speaker 2: that new demand, and it is one of the main

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Speaker 2: main drivers that we expect in terms of new demand

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Speaker 2: in New Zealand, along with the expected demand from increased

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles and the electrification of industrial and commercial processes.

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Speaker 1: When you talk about electric vehicles, what percentage of the

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Speaker 1: fleet do you think in twenty five years is going

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Speaker 1: to be eved?

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Speaker 2: So we do expect that the EV flo in twenty

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Speaker 2: five years will be between sixty and eighty percent, with

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Speaker 2: a perhaps batle mid point about seventy percent. But as

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Speaker 2: I say, there are a range of scenarios. We don't

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Speaker 2: expect complete electrication of the vehicle fleet. There's still a

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Speaker 2: need for existing internal combustion methods. But we do see

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Speaker 2: a substantial change, particularly from the late twenty thirties onwards.

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Speaker 1: And how much variability have you placed into your modeling

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Speaker 1: of any given government on any given day doing something random,

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Speaker 1: wandering into Taranaki and saying we're not going to explore

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Speaker 1: oil and gas any more. Thanks for coming.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, there are decisions that any government can make that

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Speaker 2: we have taken the best available information that we have

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Speaker 2: in terms of existing government positions and in particular industry

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Speaker 2: signals about where the ultricity sector is going. But obviously

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Speaker 2: there is any decision that can be made by government.

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Speaker 1: How confident are you on our ability to scale up

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Speaker 1: because you bullish on wind apart from anything else, How

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Speaker 1: can we do it?

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Speaker 2: I think we're already shown that we can do it.

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Speaker 2: There's been substantial increases in solar and wind generation in

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Speaker 2: New Zealand. If I look to the last quarter, the

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Speaker 2: March quarter, we had a fifty one percent increase in

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Speaker 2: generation from solar versus the same quarter a year ago,

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Speaker 2: and a forty three percent increase in wind versus a

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Speaker 2: year ago. So we're already showing that the generation is

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Speaker 2: coming online.

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Speaker 1: All right, nice to talk to you, Mike. I appreciate it,

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Speaker 1: and I'll get you back in twenty five years and

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Speaker 1: see if you're right. Mike, Heyward, the NBA market Manager,

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Speaker 1: Evidence and Insight.

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Speaker 2: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

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