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Speaker 1: As you know, I've been saying for some time this

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Speaker 1: election is Nationals to lose, the economy will pick up,

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Speaker 1: and government's only two years in Kiwi's like to give

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Speaker 1: incumbents the benefit of the doubt. And I still think

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Speaker 1: this holds true. But as we've been reporting since April,

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Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs, which took everybody, including the markets by surprise,

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Speaker 1: making a bear of a bull, hammered consumer confidence just

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Speaker 1: as we were showing signs of those early green shoots

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Speaker 1: that the pundits loved talking about. This has shortened Luxon's

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Speaker 1: window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform

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Speaker 1: he's relying on for re election. Right talk of a

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Speaker 1: leadership coup yet again by Christmas is in my view,

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Speaker 1: completely daft. Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll

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Speaker 1: Luxon in the current climate's got to be dreaming a

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Speaker 1: short term bump maybe, but there are political costs, namely instability.

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Speaker 1: Remember Muller. Then this newly elected leader has to go

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Speaker 1: cap in hand to Winston and David and no doubt

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Speaker 1: relitigate all in Sundry just after the latter began firing

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Speaker 1: up for a showdown. Winston and Shamer in full flight

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Speaker 1: at the weekend, you would have seen that it's only

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Speaker 1: September twenty twenty five. Timing is everything, and that is

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Speaker 1: Luxeon's card to play. In twelve months from now, the

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Speaker 1: country will likely feel a much different place to live,

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Speaker 1: and that means a later election. If the Nats are smart,

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Speaker 1: they'll stick with the devil they know and wait for

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Speaker 1: brighter days ahead. The risks outweigh the benefits at this

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Speaker 1: point in the cycle. If needs be, a transition can

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Speaker 1: happen in pretty short order. Just ask just into return

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Speaker 1: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live

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Speaker 1: to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays, or

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Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio