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Speaker 1: If the end of the world comes tomorrow, and look,

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Speaker 1: let's hope it doesn't, but just how prepared are we

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Speaker 1: for this? A new survey from the University of Otago

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Speaker 1: shows more than two thirds of us would like the

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Speaker 1: government to have contingency plans for worldwide catastrophes. We're talking

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Speaker 1: nuclear fallout, We're talking mass famines, we're talking deadly diseases.

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Speaker 1: Professor Nick Wilson is the University of Otaga Department of

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Speaker 1: Public Health. Nick good evening, Hi, Ryan, So the nuclear

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Speaker 1: fallout thing has always fascinated me, like, if there was

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Speaker 1: nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere, then we would have

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Speaker 1: a nuclear winter here. Do we have anything like a

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Speaker 1: plan to deal with something like that in New Zealand?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately we have no plans. I mean back in

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Speaker 2: the nineteen eighties, actually, some very good work by the

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Speaker 2: New Zealand Planning Council was done in a whole book

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Speaker 2: with a whole lot of background research was done. But

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Speaker 2: that's getting somewhat out of date, and so we really

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Speaker 2: need to update that type of thinking because out of

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Speaker 2: all the countries in the world, New Zealand's in the

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Speaker 2: top few places that would weather out a nuclear winter,

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Speaker 2: you know, relatively well, I mean the being surrounded by

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Speaker 2: ocean has a big modifying effect and being far away

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Speaker 2: from the northern hemisphere as well. But we're really not

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Speaker 2: prepared for dealing with the trade collapse that would occur.

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Speaker 2: And so although we're a great producer of food, all

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Speaker 2: that food production relies on diesel, which is important. So

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Speaker 2: we haven't got a single bio fuel refinery that could

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Speaker 2: keep our agricultural machinery going, for example.

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Speaker 1: So those are the kind of contingencies we need to

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Speaker 1: be thinking about. I've always been told that the most

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Speaker 1: realistic or the most likely scenario that would soon happen

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Speaker 1: would be a blockade of time wan the time one's

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Speaker 1: straight closers, trade is massively affected for us and we

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Speaker 1: put out of business.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're a super trade dependent country, and that's good

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Speaker 2: in terms of efficiency. Is the whole just in time

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Speaker 2: sort of supply chain thing, but it really if you

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Speaker 2: have a whole wide range of scenarios, not just regional conflict,

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Speaker 2: but you know, if there's a big volcanic eruption around

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Speaker 2: Indonesia that could really interrupt trade. So we just haven't

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Speaker 2: got the sort of planning that would help us through

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Speaker 2: even for a few difficult months where we've hardly got

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Speaker 2: any stored fuel in the country and definitely have no

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Speaker 2: capacity to produce any fort ourselves.

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Speaker 1: Well, good thing we're digging from drilling for it.

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Speaker 2: Well, electricity is a more reliable sort of energy source,

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Speaker 2: So the progress that's been done on electrification is actually

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Speaker 2: a bright spot in our resiliency preparations.

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Speaker 1: But if we have if the let's say, nuclear winter,

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Speaker 1: then you don't see the sun, do you.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's been a lot of sophisticated modeling done on this,

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Speaker 2: and nuclear winter is an absolute disaster for the northern hemisphere,

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Speaker 2: where where you know, honestly billions of people could die.

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Speaker 2: But here in New Zealand, it's it would be reduced

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Speaker 2: crop yields, but we'd still have plenty of food and

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Speaker 2: we've we've done some research on that, so it would

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Speaker 2: be tough, but you know, we'd still have enough food

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Speaker 2: to feed ourselves and recover.

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Speaker 1: And then I suppose would everybody try and come here.

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Speaker 1: That would be your next problem, wouldn't that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's all these sort of things that need to

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Speaker 2: be thought through. Though New Zealand is one of the

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Speaker 2: remotest places and you know, most refugees would probably try

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Speaker 2: and go to a closer place like Australia. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: the you know, these simple things which you know can

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Speaker 2: be worked through and planned for, there's just been nothing done.

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Speaker 2: And the same for volcanic winters, where we know that

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Speaker 2: these occur because there's been multiple ones over the last

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Speaker 2: two thousand years, and they could also reduce some light

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Speaker 2: and productivity, and we have no plans ATWKLE for volcanic

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Speaker 2: winter Nick.

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Speaker 1: In your survey, did you ask people what they're most

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Speaker 1: scared of, what sort of mass casualty event they're most

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Speaker 1: worried about.

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Speaker 2: No, these were just a few questions in a larger survey,

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Speaker 2: but it did show that people were interested in some

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Speaker 2: type of planning, but also in having a commission or

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Speaker 2: an agency that could monitor and report on these type

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Speaker 2: of risks because some of these risks their profile is

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Speaker 2: changing quite rapidly. You know, the risk of nuclear war

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Speaker 2: may be going up, definitely. The concern about bioengineered pandemics

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Speaker 2: is going up with improvements in biotechnology and artificial intelligence,

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Speaker 2: So we really need to keep our eye on the

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Speaker 2: ball on what's happening so we can be as best

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Speaker 2: prepared as possible.

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Speaker 1: Nick appreciate your time, Professor at Wilson University of o

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Speaker 1: Target Department of Public Health. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Alan Drive, listen live to news talks. It'd be from

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