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Speaker 1: Nikola Willis has said she's going to deliver a no

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Speaker 1: BS budget tomorrow. So janatib Shaney has five questions she

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Speaker 1: wants answers to. She's with us now, how you and

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Speaker 1: a Hey, Heather. First question is how much they save

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Speaker 1: on pay equity A.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the big question. Look, that was the thing

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Speaker 2: that sort of shocked us all. The government came out

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Speaker 2: without any warning and changed that change that rule. You know,

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Speaker 2: that could save billions of dollars at the expense of

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Speaker 2: people who work in jobs dominated by women. Their pay

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Speaker 2: rises won't be as large as might otherwise be the case.

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Speaker 2: So question one is how much will a tightening of

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Speaker 2: the pay equity regime save.

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Speaker 1: Let's see, I think ten billion plus by the way,

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Speaker 1: but as more than ten billion, but not as much

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Speaker 1: as seventeen billion as estimated.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, look possibly, and that would be over the

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Speaker 2: four year period.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So obviously it's been pretty well signaled that there's

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Speaker 1: going to be changes to key we save. I imagine

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Speaker 1: you're going to look at that. But the other one

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Speaker 1: will be there is some indication there will be tax changes.

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Speaker 1: What are you expecting?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the thing is the government has said that

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Speaker 2: it wants to support economic growth, and it's also said

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Speaker 2: it wants businesses to invest more in technology, tools machinery

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Speaker 2: to support productivity. So one way of doing that is

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Speaker 2: that it could allow businesses to write off more depreciation

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Speaker 2: on some of their tools and equipment and so on.

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Speaker 2: That would lower their tax bills and encourage them to

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Speaker 2: invest more in these things. The questions will be, does

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Speaker 2: the government say, okay, you can write off, you know,

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Speaker 2: write off more depreciation on any type of asset, or

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Speaker 2: does it narrow it to save money and say only

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Speaker 2: certain types of assets, or does it say only certain

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Speaker 2: types of sectors can can get this type of tax relief.

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Speaker 2: That so, if it does go down that track, which

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Speaker 2: which some people think it will, that that is specifically

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Speaker 2: what I'll be looking for. Surplus, that's the big one.

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Speaker 2: So people who listen to Nicola Willis will hear that

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Speaker 2: she's talking about a return to surplus within the four

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Speaker 2: year forecast period. But the surplus that Nicola Willis is

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Speaker 2: referring to is not the traditional measure. It's the one

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Speaker 2: that excludes the impact of acc So I think what

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Speaker 2: we will be doing is keeping focused on the original

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Speaker 2: measure of the surplus. That's called the obergal, not the

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Speaker 2: ober gal X. And at the end of last year

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Speaker 2: the Treasury didn't see a return to surplus within the

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Speaker 2: forecast period. So yeah, what.

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Speaker 1: About Treasury's forecasts? What are you looking for there?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think I'm going to be quite

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Speaker 2: interested to see that they do this. I mean, outside

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Speaker 2: of the normal stuff. I'm interested in some of the

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Speaker 2: sensitivity analysis they do. So every year they say, well,

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Speaker 2: if GDP growth is fast or slower, you know, bigger

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Speaker 2: or smaller, or interest rates are higher or lower, whatever

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Speaker 2: than we expected, this could be the impact on the

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Speaker 2: government's books. Now this year, I think that test will

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Speaker 2: be particularly interesting because the world is so uncertain, the

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Speaker 2: chances of Treasuries forecast being wrong is pretty high. You know,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is doing all sorts of things, So you know,

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Speaker 2: I'd be quite keen to look at that because you know,

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Speaker 2: that sort of thing can make quite a big difference

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Speaker 2: on the books. And the one that I've looked at

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Speaker 2: in the past is just that global, globally, bond yields

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Speaker 2: are higher than what was expected in December, and this

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Speaker 2: is pushing up the cost of the government's debt servicing costs.

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Speaker 2: So because of what's happening in the US, because of

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Speaker 2: the amount of government debt we have, it's costing the

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Speaker 2: government more than expected to service its debt, you know,

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Speaker 2: more than expected just in December. So you know, that

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Speaker 2: has an impact on the finances and on the return

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Speaker 2: to surplus. So, you know, the those scenarios I think

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Speaker 2: will be particularly interesting year because of all the uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: Look forward to seeing you there, Jeanne. Jeanne Tostrainiy, the

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Speaker 1: Herald's business reporter.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 2: News Talks' b from four pm, weekdays or follow the

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Speaker 2: podcast On iHeartRadio