1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to this episode of Shared Lunch. We 2 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: were going to focus on the Australian market off the 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 1: back of the recent earning season. 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: We're also going to chat about what to. 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: Look for when investing in small to medium sized companies. 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 3: Investing involves for risk you might lose the money you 7 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 3: start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 8 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 3: We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. 9 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 3: Everything you're about to see and here is current at 10 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 3: the time of recording. 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: My name's Sonya Williams. I'm the co founder and co 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: CEO at Shears's and today I'm joined by the City 13 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: based Michelle Lopez, head of Australasian Equities and portfolio manager 14 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: at Pie Funds. Welcome, Michelle, Hi, Sonja. Before we get started, 15 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land, 16 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: water and sky on which we come to you from today, 17 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: the Gettigill people of the Aura nation, and pay my 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: respects to their elders, past, present and emerging. 19 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: So thanks Heeps for joining us. Michelle. 20 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: Before we get into it chatting all things a six, 21 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: can you tell us about you and what does a 22 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: day to day look like for you. 23 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 4: Yeah. 24 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 5: Sure. 25 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 4: Firstly, thanks very much for having me on your podcast, Sonya. 26 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 4: I'm always really happy to share a bit about the 27 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 4: exciting world of investing and really what. 28 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 5: Moves and shakes it. 29 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 4: So, as you mentioned, I'm based here in Sydney, and 30 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 4: as the accent is probably given away, I am at 31 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 4: Aussie and by a way of background, I joined Pithon's 32 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 4: early last year in twenty twenty three as a portfolio 33 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 4: manager and as you mentioned, head of this Australation equity team, 34 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 4: and I brought with me probably twenty years of experience 35 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 4: investing inequities, most recently as the head of OSSI Equities 36 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: at a large global fund manager, where I trained very 37 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 4: much much on the job as a fundamental analyst and really. 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 5: Lucky to have learned. 39 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 4: From some incredibly well respected and successful portfolio managers and 40 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 4: fund managers in the region. 41 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: Markets are volatile of nature, and especially of late we've 42 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: seen the A six has been down in the recent 43 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: days due to some concerns around the US growth. Did 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: this have any bearing to the end of the earning 45 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 1: season in Australia. Yes, so. 46 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 5: August which we've just come out of. 47 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 4: You would think was a pretty you know, benign month 48 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 4: if you looked at the performance over the month, which 49 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:44,119 Speaker 4: was virtually flat, but it certainly had a lot of volatility. 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 4: And to your point, Sonya, the first week of August, 51 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 4: you know, we had a five percent draw down which 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 4: was which is quite brutal, and then it just recovered 53 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: all of that as we sort of progressed through it. 54 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 5: To your point, yes, a. 55 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 4: Big driver was started coming out of the US, but 56 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 4: as as you would. 57 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 5: Know, August is really all about earnings. 58 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,839 Speaker 4: For US and companies reporting, so we saw a lot 59 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: of big moves just on a stop by stock basis. 60 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 4: And again if I sort of think through and I 61 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 4: considered the earnings outcomes, again at a high level, it 62 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: looked like it was quite evenly matched between companies that 63 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 4: beat expectations and those that missed expectations. But again looking 64 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 4: underneath the surface, there was there was a lot of 65 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 4: callouts from the reporting season. The first, first and biggest 66 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 4: trend that we saw and this probably isn't going to 67 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 4: be a surprise for most was really around the cost 68 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 4: of living pressures and these remained persistent and widespread. So 69 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 4: there are a number of companies referring to changed consumer 70 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 4: behaviors in response to kind of household budget pressures. 71 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 5: And this was across the board, So this. 72 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 4: Was retailers, it was supermarkets, which you think are quite defensive, 73 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 4: It was the utility players, it was travel. However, I 74 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 4: would actually say that the consumer has shown great resilience 75 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 4: if you think about sort of where we've come from 76 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 4: from an interest rate perspective and inflation being really high, 77 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 4: and in fact we're starting to see signs that the 78 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 4: trough in the consumer activity is could be behind us. 79 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 4: So that'd be the first one. The second one is margins. 80 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 4: So interesting that ebit DA, which is earnings before interest, tax, 81 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 4: depreciation and amaltization, which is quite a common terminology in 82 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 4: our market. The margins were revised lower for every single 83 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 4: sector throughout August, and you know, one of the key 84 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 4: drivers obviously inflation. But in our view again looking forward, 85 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 4: which is really important is we feel that the margins 86 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 4: should begin to recover from here. So we are seeing 87 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 4: cost stabilize and importantly we're seeing labor supply improving and 88 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 4: then maybe the final ones balance sheets. 89 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 5: So balance sheets are strong. 90 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 4: So the Australian corporates have remained lowly geared and they've 91 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 4: had shown actually very little appetite to lever up. As 92 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 4: you would know, we're probably at an inflection point from 93 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 4: a rates perspective in Australia. We're lagging probably New Zealand 94 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 4: in that sense, so there is an expectation that cuts 95 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 4: will come next you And again we'll say kind of 96 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 4: where the balance sheets go from there, but it's meant 97 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 4: that there's been. 98 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 5: A number of buybacks that companies have been able to do. 99 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 4: The other thing I'd probably highlight from reporting season is 100 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 4: more on the guidance and the outlook statements. And again 101 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 4: the one thing was where companies did provide guidance, they 102 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 4: were very it was very conservatively set as I mentioned 103 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 4: the living and interest rate on uncertainties, and that actually 104 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 4: meant that downgrades outpaced upgrades. If you look into the 105 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 4: next fiscal year so FY twenty five, and on average 106 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 4: forty six percent of the companies had earnings downgrades and 107 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 4: that sort of versus twenty percent that had upgrades. So 108 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 4: again there was a skew to having revisions revised downwards 109 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 4: earnings revised downwards. 110 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, and when you say the downgrades and upgrades, do 111 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: you want to just explain that what you mean by that. 112 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, So upgrades. 113 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 4: It essentially means that the management provide guidance that is 114 00:06:55,640 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 4: ahead of where market expectations are. So in our world, 115 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 4: earnings really drives share prices, so having an understanding of 116 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 4: where earnings are going. 117 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 5: So an upgrade is now we think earnings are going. 118 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 4: To be higher next year than what we originally thought, 119 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 4: and downgrades is the inverse of that. 120 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 5: So we've had to revise earnings. 121 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 4: Down in light of what management commentary has been. 122 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: And so were there any surprises or anything that struck 123 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: struck you as surprising? 124 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 6: There's always surprises, So there's always surprises, and by surprises, 125 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 6: the direct correlation here is just share price moves. 126 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 4: So when we look at the beat versus miss ratio, 127 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 4: a couple of things to call out. So from a 128 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 4: sector perspective, we had healthcare the highest rates of beats, 129 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 4: and then we had energy and utilities as the highest 130 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 4: rate of misses. But to your question on surprises, you know, 131 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 4: when I look at share price reactions, and in fact 132 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 4: I pulled out I pulled out a report just just 133 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 4: before our meeting, and they actually gave some numbers around 134 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 4: this which I thought was quite interesting. 135 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 5: This is a JP Morgan report, but as you'd. 136 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 4: Expect, so if it met expectations, share price was benign 137 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 4: and in line with market. If they beat consensus by 138 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 4: more than two percent, that those that bucket of companies 139 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 4: outperformed by three percent. So in a flat market, which 140 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 4: was what we had in August, they are up three 141 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 4: percent as a whole. 142 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 5: The interesting part is the missus. 143 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 4: So those companies that missed expectations by two percent or more, 144 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 4: that group actually fell by six percent. 145 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 5: And that's that skew to the downside. 146 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 4: Is why you'll hear industry veterans saying all the time 147 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 4: arou our reporting season that the goal is really to 148 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:07,239 Speaker 4: avoid the blowups. 149 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 5: Because you can see that skew. 150 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 4: Companies that exceeded by two percent were up three those 151 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 4: that disappointed by two percent were down six. 152 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: Are there any particular industries that you're keeping your eye 153 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: on over the next six months. 154 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, I suppose i'd call out. 155 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 4: I'd probably call out three again months is a very 156 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 4: very short time horizon for us. But let me just 157 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 4: call something out and then I'll cave. 158 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 5: It all of it. But the first one would probably. 159 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 4: Be infrastructure and construction so we've got a really solid pipeline. 160 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 4: It's actually one point seven trillion worth of work for 161 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 4: the next seven years, and importantly, this continues to be replenished, 162 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 4: so there's a real tailwind within that set. And then 163 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 4: if I can just narrow it in more construction. In particular, 164 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 4: there's two hundred and forty thousand new homes that are 165 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 4: required annually to achieve government supply targets. We're well below 166 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 4: that level from an approvals perspective, and this has been 167 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 4: a problem now for a couple of years, but it's 168 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 4: really coming to a head. We've got a chronic shortage 169 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 4: of in housing and we need to see this addressed. 170 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 4: So I think over the next six months that's one 171 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 4: that I've sort. 172 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 5: Of been looking I'll be looking at closely. 173 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 4: The second one is probably those consumer exposed sectors. 174 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 5: So as I mentioned earlier, we are starting. 175 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 4: To see signs of a trough and consumer activity. We've 176 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 4: had retailers come up with trading updates throughout sort of 177 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 4: July and into August and showing an improvement, not a 178 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,119 Speaker 4: huge improvement, but at least it's positive. 179 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 5: So again, we've got tax cuts. 180 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 4: That have started to filter through the economy, and we've 181 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 4: got interest rate cuts coming next year, so I think 182 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 4: that's going to be quite stimulatory for the consumer. And 183 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 4: then finally, just real estate, with interest rates now sort 184 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 4: of entering a new phase. I think that's going to 185 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 4: look interesting from a valuation perspective. But as I mentioned, 186 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 4: look that that's just kind of sectors, and importantly for US, 187 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 4: we're bottom up fundamental investors, and that means that we 188 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 4: approach investing at the company level rather than kind of 189 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 4: at a sector level. 190 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: And are there any big milestones or announcements that you're 191 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: coming up that you think will impact the markets in 192 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: any way? 193 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 4: Oh, there's always announcements. I mean, you just don't know 194 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 4: what you're going to wake up to and sort. 195 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 5: Of overnight moves. 196 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 4: But I mean, I suppose the very near term ones 197 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 4: that we're look looking for. 198 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,599 Speaker 5: You know, macro data out of the US is always important. 199 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 4: Payrolls which we've had just very recently, we're about to 200 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 4: enter or we're in the campaigning of the politic of 201 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 4: the US elections, that that could have quite an impact 202 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 4: on our market from a policy setting perspective. 203 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 5: The other big sort of announcements or I suppose. 204 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 4: External factors if you wanted to call it, that is 205 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 4: just commodity prices. Just to be aware that our market 206 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 4: is quite levered to commodity prices for better or worse. 207 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 4: But yeah, they represent a large part of our exports. 208 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 4: So any data and announcements around China policy will have 209 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 4: will have an impact, will have an impact there as well. 210 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's a nice threat to follow there around like, 211 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: what are some of the external factors that impact the 212 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 1: Australian market. 213 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I suppose, like most countries, Australia is absolutely 214 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 4: intertwined with global markets, so we really can't say we 215 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 4: sort of stand alone. So there's always going to be 216 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 4: external factors. I mentioned commodities. That's a big one for 217 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 4: us if you think about and the reason for that 218 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 4: if you think about the top three contributors to trade, 219 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 4: So our biggest exports there Idal, CALL and LNG, so 220 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 4: again really important. 221 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,479 Speaker 5: Just the demand for those in particular. 222 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 4: The other one I would probably call out, and this 223 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 4: is again not just for Australia, but you know, geopolitics 224 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 4: can can really impact sort of markets and then the 225 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 4: energy situation. 226 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 5: So I try to desensitize. 227 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 4: Sort of big words and I don't think it's a crisis, 228 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 4: so we'll call it the energy transition. But again that's 229 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 4: that's what's proving out, is that it's slower and it's 230 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 4: harder than what maybe we had hoped for and what 231 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 4: government's policy had had sort of factored in. 232 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 5: And what we've also found out is it's most. 233 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 4: Likely going to need gas, so we've had no hydrogen 234 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 4: as as an example of a renewable source that we 235 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 4: were trying to develop, capitals being. 236 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 5: Sort of pulled out actually one of the major. 237 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 4: Ones just because there the returns are not there, so 238 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 4: to stimulate that level. So that's a you know, the 239 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 4: energy transition is another one that's that's playing playing out 240 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 4: in our market. 241 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: So with the US election coming up, like how does 242 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: that vector into how you know your investing decisions? 243 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 4: Taking a step back, what do elections mean? It could 244 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 4: potentially make a change in And the difficult part at 245 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 4: this juncture is the Biden Harris administration haven't got firm 246 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 4: policies in place. I think the Trump jd Vance does 247 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 4: have all a bit more and it's the one thing 248 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 4: I would say is both parties are going to be 249 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 4: very stimulatory, and this is typically quite positive for equity 250 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 4: markets if I think about the risks either one way 251 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 4: or the other that we're considering, So renewables as a really. 252 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 5: Topical policy, the Inflation Reduction Act. 253 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 4: Which was introduced by Biden, that stimulated a lot of 254 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 4: investment into renewables, a lot of incentives into that. 255 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 5: Part of the market. 256 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 4: So a question mark around whether that remains under Trump. 257 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 4: I would say it's difficult to unwind something like that. 258 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 4: So although it's a risk, I would say it's a hugely. 259 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 5: Likely to happen. 260 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 4: But I think in totality we're not overly concerned one 261 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 4: way or the other what way it falls and lands. 262 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 4: We're positioned and we've positioned our portfolio such that there's 263 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 4: no great risk either way, and in fact we see 264 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 4: it as a positive, a stimulatory type of response from 265 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 4: both parties. 266 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: Like now kind of honing in on one of the 267 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: funds that you offer, talking about, you know, managing the 268 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: risk or how you look at creating those things. 269 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 2: One of the interesting things. 270 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: About the PIG High Growth Fund is that you look 271 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: to a lot of small to medium listed companies. What 272 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: do you define as small to medium, Like we've heard 273 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: a lot of the big companies or the big industries, like, yeah, 274 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: how do you define that? 275 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 4: Yes, So there's probably two ways to look at it. Firstly, 276 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 4: is just market cap, so the size of the business 277 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 4: itself and small we've just given our given our size 278 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 4: at the moment, we really do need to be mindful 279 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 4: of liquidity risk, so we kind of say from the 280 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 4: small end of two hundred million market cap all the 281 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 4: way up to say fifteen billion for a mid size business. 282 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 4: And you know, we deliberately try to keep our vestable 283 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 4: universe as broad as we can and as deep as possible. 284 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 4: We don't want to limit ourselves within that. So that's 285 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 4: the first kind of categorization. It's by market cap, it's 286 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 4: by size. The second way to look at it, which 287 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 4: is which is properly industry practice, is more is around 288 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 4: the indices that they're in. So we focus on the 289 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 4: small ordinaries for small caps, which is anything from if 290 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 4: I think about size of companies stopping UMBER one hundred 291 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 4: and one, so X one hundred all the way down 292 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 4: to the three hundred mark. And then for midcaps, we 293 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 4: look at everything outside of the X fifty, so the 294 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 4: top fifty names we tend to classify as large cap. 295 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: Is the way that you consider those different to how 296 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 1: you would consider some of the larger companies, like how 297 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: you evaluate them. 298 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: Good question. 299 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 5: I think. 300 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 4: Look, the approach to investing and what we call our 301 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 4: guess our investment process is very consistent regardless of the 302 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,679 Speaker 4: size of the company. So the characteristics that we're looking 303 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 4: for in the businesses, which again we could probably to 304 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,959 Speaker 4: a whole nother podcast on that because it's kind of 305 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 4: obviously live and breathe and love it, so but the 306 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 4: characteristics themselves and the kind of questions that we're trying 307 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 4: to solve for are consistent. 308 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 5: The one thing I would say, though, and the reason 309 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 5: why we have. 310 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 4: A preference for the smaller MidCap over the large cap, 311 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 4: is that potential for our performance is a lot greater 312 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 4: within the smaller MidCap space. 313 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 5: And there's a number of reasons for that. 314 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 4: The first ones that they're much there's much less research 315 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 4: available on them, and that allows for some more mispricing opportunities, 316 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 4: and it's also a much less efficient part of the market. 317 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 4: So again that potential for our performance is there. The 318 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 4: other thing I'd say around small caps is that the 319 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 4: growth is typically stronger. So when you think about the 320 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 4: companies that they're typically younger companies, they're at an earlier 321 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 4: stage of development, so that growth trajectory is stronger. And 322 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 4: then the final piece which has probably missed a little bits, 323 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 4: you know, merger and acquisition or i PO so initial 324 00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:01,400 Speaker 4: public offerings. Within our markets, they've been a constant tailwind 325 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 4: for smaller mid caps, and in fact, ninety five percent 326 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 4: of merger and acquisition targets in terms of the number 327 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 4: of deals have been in companies that have got a 328 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 4: market cap of less than US fifty bill and the 329 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 4: average premium that they get when they're bid for is 330 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 4: you know, thirty to forty percent, and that's created a 331 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,719 Speaker 4: really strong tailwind within that part of the market. So 332 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 4: that's the differences i'd call out between sort of the 333 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 4: large versus smaller mid But what we're looking for in 334 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 4: a company would be consistently applied in the. 335 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 5: Large type as well. 336 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 1: Some would say that the A six provides more retail 337 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: or better retail opportunities than the insidets currently. What do 338 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: you think about this or what do you think the 339 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 1: main points of difference are. 340 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it just comes back to the depth 341 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 4: of opportunities. Really, there's just much more or many more 342 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,719 Speaker 4: stocks in Australia. There's a greater diversity of companies and 343 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 4: industries available for us to invest in. You know, New 344 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 4: Zealand traditionally has been quite a high yield market, dominated 345 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 4: by infrastructure and property names, and whilst there's actually a 346 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 4: very strong concentration in the Australian large cap part of 347 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 4: the market. So if you think banks, you know, the 348 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 4: big miners, a couple of supermarkets. If you strip that out, 349 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 4: and again maybe one of the reasons we tend to 350 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 4: focus on smaller MidCap it offers a real diversity of 351 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 4: businesses and in fact there's some real global leaders amongst 352 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 4: that pack as well. So I suppose if I had 353 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 4: to just really zoom out, it would be that that 354 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 4: there's just more stocks, greater depth of opportunities. Having said that, though, 355 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 4: I think for the first time, well the first time 356 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 4: since I joined PI eighteen months ago, we're seriously looking 357 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 4: at some New Zealand investments. You know that there are 358 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 4: companies over there with very solid fundamentals, and importantly, share 359 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 4: prices at the moment are probably factoring in continued kind 360 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,119 Speaker 4: of challenges and derma and gloom that the NZ market 361 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 4: has really muddled through and. 362 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 5: That presents some really good buying opportunities. 363 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 4: Right, So we're absolutely not dismissing New Zealand, and I 364 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 4: think probably this is the time to start really kicking 365 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 4: the tires. 366 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 2: What kind of opportunities do you see? 367 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 4: There's a two that we're sort of really down. We're 368 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 4: doing quite detailed work on. One of them is actually 369 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 4: in the logistics company. And again, what we like about 370 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 4: this investment opportunity in particular is, yes, there's a large 371 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 4: proportion of their earnings tied and pinned to the New 372 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 4: Zealand economy, which we think is at an inflection point. 373 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 4: But they've also so that's the near term sort of 374 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 4: thesis and earnings driver. But then they've all I got 375 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 4: optionality and upside through a US through the US side 376 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 4: of the business. So again that's that's one. The other 377 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 4: one is more in the property side of things. So 378 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 4: again with interest rates being quite high in Zealand up 379 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 4: until recently, and also you know, the valuation of a 380 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 4: lot of these property companies have come down in a 381 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: training you know, at book value or well below book value, 382 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 4: and this particular company has got a really strong pipeline 383 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 4: of development sort of in the age care space. So 384 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 4: again that's just a couple of examples that we're looking 385 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 4: at that the valuation we think underpins quite a bit of. 386 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 5: Upside from here. 387 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 1: Well, one company, if it springs to mind, that you 388 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 1: wish you invested in ten years ago, and why you 389 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: know what, this. 390 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 4: One's easy for me because I also wish I invested 391 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 4: in a PA. You know what for me, it's Promedicuse 392 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 4: Promedicus is. It's a healthcare IT company specializing in. 393 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 5: Radiology imaging software. And I have been I have been a. 394 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 4: Shareholder from a professional capacity, and it's in the funds today. 395 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 5: But the stock was a dollar ten years ago. 396 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 4: I think it was a dollar. I'll have to check that. 397 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 4: I think it was a dollar close to a dollar. 398 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 4: It's one hundred and fifty today, so you know, but 399 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 4: that that type of return, I'm not sure there are many, 400 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 4: if any other companies. And importantly, this was not just 401 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 4: a one hit wonder. It wasn't just that they I 402 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,919 Speaker 4: don't know, hit drill results in a gold mine and 403 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 4: character this has been a really consistent compounder. And you know, 404 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 4: it's a super high quality business. It's like and sorry 405 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 4: by high quality the revenues are recurring, so it's it's 406 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 4: you know, locked in revenues five percent locked in through 407 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 4: very long term contracts. 408 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 5: The profit margins are industry leading. 409 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 4: They've got a globally leading product, their customers and their 410 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 4: clients are top deer academic universities in the US, so 411 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 4: you know, think Mayo, you know, and importantly, a really 412 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 4: solid earnings trajectory. Even as we stand here today, they've 413 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 4: got a very clear pathway to be generating thirty percent 414 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 4: per annum for the next three probably ten years. And 415 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 4: the reason is their penetration is still very low. They're 416 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,919 Speaker 4: you know, seven percent penetrated. And they've got new adjacencies 417 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 4: so I mentioned radiology, they're getting into cardiology, they're you know, 418 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 4: just being accredited the highest level of security for the 419 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 4: US Department of Defense. 420 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 5: So there's all these other growth avenues. So yeah, I 421 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 5: still am an investor, and I still think that there's. 422 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 4: A really long trajectory of growth. But I don't think 423 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 4: we're going to get the fifteen thousand percent return. I 424 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 4: think it was for a dollar to a dollar fifty 425 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,239 Speaker 4: for the next ten years. But I think we can 426 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 4: get a really solid consistent return still yeah. 427 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, And do you think, like the power of hindsight, 428 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 1: do you think there would have been signs signs ten 429 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: years ago that would have would have like what would 430 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 1: have been the signs ten years ago that it was 431 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: getting to end up on that path? Yeah. 432 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 4: I mean I probably started investing in this company six 433 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 4: years ago, seven six or seven years ago, I would say, yeah, 434 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 4: I just I think this is a really good example 435 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 4: of a company that when you see these really solid 436 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 4: fundamentals and you can see a global market and they're 437 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 4: winning off the major incumbent companies like Phillips and Semens, 438 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 4: it's it's clearly gaining traction and you've got to listen 439 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 4: and the repeatability of it. So if they're able to 440 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 4: do that consistently for three four years, you know, I 441 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 4: think sometimes valuation is evaluation has been the real blocking 442 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 4: reason people haven't been invested in it. But I think 443 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 4: you need to approach a company like this from a 444 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 4: different lens, from a valuation perspective. Yeah. 445 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: Well, thanks thanks for joining us, Michelle and sharing your 446 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 2: insights with us. 447 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 5: No, it's been pleasure, been absolute pleasure. So thanks for having. 448 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 1: Me awesome and thanks everyone for tuning in. You can 449 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 1: Watch this Shared Lunch episode on YouTube, or follow the 450 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 1: podcast on your favorite podcast app. Leave us a rating 451 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,959 Speaker 1: and a comment about what you'd like to hear about next. 452 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 1: Thanks everyone, and goodbye.