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Speaker 1: Togever Dup.

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Speaker 2: The Ellen Prime Minister Chris Luxen is headed to the

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Speaker 2: US next week to attend the NATO Summit in Washington,

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Speaker 2: where he's going to meet with members of the US

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Speaker 2: administration in Congress, and then he's also going to head

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Speaker 2: over to San fran to promote business and investment. Tim

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Speaker 2: Grosser is the former New Zealand ambassador to the US

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Speaker 2: and is with US now.

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Speaker 1: Haye, Tim, good evening.

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Speaker 2: Do you reckon he's going to get to meet Biden.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure he will shake his hand, but I

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Speaker 1: don't believe for a minute there will be enough time

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Speaker 1: for President Biden to have a separate bilateral given the

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Speaker 1: number of leaders that will be there from NATO country's

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Speaker 1: vastly more important than US. But I still think it's

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Speaker 1: a terrific thing that he's going there, and I can't

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Speaker 1: think of a more tense or important time. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: let me give you my overall perspective. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: rest of the visit is all I mean. I would

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Speaker 1: use the term boilerplate, but that's some negative. I don't

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Speaker 1: really mean that. The key issue is what is going

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Speaker 1: to be able to perceive amongst the other leaders of NATO,

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Speaker 1: given the confluence of the huge strategic threat from the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian situation and the resurgence of Donald Trump's chances of

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Speaker 1: winning the presidency, if you give me two or three

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Speaker 1: minutes of elaborate on those things, So we start with

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Speaker 1: I'll try and keep this basic. You know, the NATO

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Speaker 1: existed after the war to protect European security. It's been

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Speaker 1: a fantastic political success. It was aimed at the then

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union and then that became Russia. And the core

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Speaker 1: commitment technically is called Article five. What it means is you,

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Speaker 1: formerly the Soviet Union or Russia attack any of our

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Speaker 1: members and it's an in tank on all of US,

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Speaker 1: and US includes most importantly the United States, doesn't include

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Speaker 1: New Zealand, by the way. So this kept the peace

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Speaker 1: in this ghastly faustian bargain, you know, attack US and

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Speaker 1: face nuclear armageddon for seventy five years. And then Putin

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Speaker 1: decided to invade first crime year into twenty fourteen. I

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Speaker 1: was stuck in Moscow at the time. The exact time

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Speaker 1: has happened, but that's another story. And then in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, his tanks and his troops invade western Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: the most serious threat to European security for seventy five years. Now.

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is not a native member. They'd love to be,

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Speaker 1: they never will be. And the reality is that the

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Speaker 1: fantasy of you know, Boris Johnson, Lez Trust and co.

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Speaker 1: Of total defeat of Russia now two plus years on,

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Speaker 1: is now clear to everyone, even if nobody's worked out

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Speaker 1: a way to say it in public. And that's the

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Speaker 1: underlying issue. And then along comes Donald Trump's resurgence last week.

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Speaker 1: So go back to I think twenty sixteen, just after

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Speaker 1: I was appointed ambasador in Washington, Trump made a statement

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Speaker 1: that basically said Russia is no longer a threat. And

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Speaker 1: then he went a step further, I think, in either

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen, by actually questioning whether the

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Speaker 1: United States would validate Article five, the mutual deterrence central

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Speaker 1: component of NATO. And I went to this. So he

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Speaker 1: went there, and there was shock and horror throughout Europe

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Speaker 1: when he basically left it ambiguous. And I went to

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Speaker 1: a catch up job, a massive elegant black tie dinner

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Speaker 1: for about six hundred people, and all the Western ambassadors

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Speaker 1: including me, were invited at an elegant hotel in Washington,

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Speaker 1: and you know, all the great and the good Stoltenberg,

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Speaker 1: the then Secretary General of NATO and all came up

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Speaker 1: to say, the support of the United States for Article

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Speaker 1: five and for the defense of Europe is unquestionable. And

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence, who's then still the Vice president and on

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's stied, got up and said the same thing.

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Speaker 1: And there was dead silence because everybody is thinking. But

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking, it doesn't matter, mister Vice president, what you

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Speaker 1: think if your boss has just said this that can't

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Speaker 1: be repaired by a gloss over show like this black

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Speaker 1: tie dinner.

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Speaker 2: And so is this the threat of Trump winning again?

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Speaker 2: Is that we go back into this particular the possibility

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Speaker 2: that that.

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Speaker 1: My point exactly my point either and I think that

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Speaker 1: our Prime minister, I mean, you can receive as many

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Speaker 1: briefings as he likes from foreign policy experts people, you know,

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Speaker 1: like I was in the past, but he really has

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Speaker 1: to go and hear it amongst the leaders have to

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Speaker 1: make real decisions. And I mean, I don't know what

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Speaker 1: your take on the debate is. While there's a massive

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Speaker 1: cover up, that's what is very clear to me from

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Speaker 1: a series of brilliant analyses that I've read in the

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Speaker 1: last forty eight hours, and a few conversations I've had

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Speaker 1: with friends in the United States, still deeply inside the

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Speaker 1: political process. This has got to be played out, and

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Speaker 1: the chances of a second Trump presidency have increased by

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Speaker 1: some Nanctor, nobody can say quite what.

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Speaker 2: I'm pleased that you say that, because that's quite obvious

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Speaker 2: to everybody, and I'm please somebody with your expertise and

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Speaker 2: your years and politics sees it as well. Tim. Thank you,

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Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Tim Gross, a former New Zealand ambassadors

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Speaker 2: to the US, just on what Tim was just saying

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Speaker 2: that Ukraine not joining NATO next week when NATO meets.

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Speaker 2: According to the Telegraph, Ukraine is going to be told

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Speaker 2: it is too corrupt to join NATO and so it's

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Speaker 2: not going to be able to For more from Hither

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Speaker 2: Duplessy Allen Drive.

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Speaker 1: Listen live to news talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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