1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: This parents fights music. Yeah, that's a bit more fighty 2 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: all right, Brad, that's for you. Brad Olson, Infmetric's principal economist. 3 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: Because Brad, you're gonna have a fight with me about superannuation, 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 1: aren't you. 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 2: I don't think it'll be a fight. I think it'll 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 2: be a good ration debate. You know, we'll have some 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 2: good information coming through and we'll see what principal points 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:24,600 Speaker 2: win at the end. 9 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: Right, what is your problem with my position? 10 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: My problem is that you want to You're defending your 11 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 2: trying to keep the pension, and I get that. Your 12 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 2: point is also that you want to see some of 13 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 2: the welfare support that's being provided out there trend back 14 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: as well. But let's get real on the New Zealand 15 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: Super conversation. At the moment, New Zealand is spending twenty 16 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: three point two billion dollars on SUPER. That's more than 17 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 2: the entire education budget. It's far more than any other 18 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: benefit we've got coming forward. It is increasingly expensive and 19 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 2: I think the challenge that I've got on SUPER and 20 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: maintaining it at its current rate is that people are 21 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: living longer. We've got more older people coming through. At 22 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: some point we as a country are already having to 23 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 2: start deciding what we're spending on or not. And at 24 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: the moment we're paying for people to be old over 25 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: other stuff. 26 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,119 Speaker 1: Okay, what is the total welfare budget in New Zealand? 27 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: How much do we allocate to it? 28 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: It's a round about forty billion dollars in the last 29 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 2: year again, twenty three billion of that being New Zealand 30 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: Super alone. 31 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: Okay, so there is a huge amount. And in that 32 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: we will be counting I mean, that's not even everything 33 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: that I have a problem with, but in that we're 34 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: counting the winter energy money, we're counting the assistance for 35 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: working for families. Everything's in there, right. 36 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 2: That's that. Yep, you've got everything from job seeker about 37 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 2: four point six billion through to working at winter energy payment. 38 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant. So we've got we've got a lot of 39 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: money that we can peel back here. Now, why would 40 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: you not start by pick because I don't mind moving 41 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: the pension. My only argument is prioritizing, right, why would 42 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: you not start by taking money off people who actually 43 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: can pay for things themselves, for example, students. 44 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: Like like older people. And again you've got. 45 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: Let me finish. I'm talking about students right, students who 46 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 1: are in the third year of university who up to 47 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: now we're paying for it themselves. Why are we not? 48 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 1: Why are we suddenly paying for it? Why don't we 49 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: take that away from them first? 50 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: Well, because in terms of being for back, it's New 51 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 2: Zealand super where you'll get the biggest change there. I mean, look, 52 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: you talk about people who can pay for it themselves. 53 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 2: At the moment, fifty percent of sixty five to sixty 54 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 2: nine year olds currently still work and we are giving 55 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 2: them money every single week for just being over the 56 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: age of sixty five. There's no means testing that goes 57 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 2: on at all. So in terms of I mean put 58 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 2: it this way, at the moment, New Zealand Souper is 59 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: the biggest welfare line. The second largest is Job Secret 60 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 2: for PA. 61 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: Hold, we're not going to take all of it away, Brad, 62 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: how much are we going to save If we shift 63 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: the goalpost from sixty five to sixty seven. 64 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 2: You'd shift you'd be earning a lot more back than 65 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: you would be by making some changes to the likes 66 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 2: of the student allowance, student loans and fees free that 67 00:02:59,200 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 2: came through. 68 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: I haven't for watched there, I would be doing a 69 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: lot more than that. I'd be taking away that third 70 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: year free quickly. That should be an easy hit. I 71 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: don't even understand why they're not doing that fast. I 72 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: do that, then I'd take away the winter energy payment, 73 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: because then at least you're peeling a little bit a 74 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: bit of something away from the pensioners. But also then 75 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 1: I'd start having a really good look at that working 76 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: for families, which is just basically blown out, hasn't it? 77 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: And in there do you not think that you could 78 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: save as much as if you take away those two 79 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: years off pensioners. 80 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: Well, I think of you if you took the two 81 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 2: years off pension if you changed that age. And that's 82 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 2: more specifically, because we know that people are spending an 83 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 2: extra nearly five years on SUPER than they were before. Yes, 84 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 2: put it this way, if I was telling you that 85 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 2: people were spending five extra years on jobs seeking benefits, 86 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: you'll be absolutely beside yourself with the level of benefit 87 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: dependency there. And that's what we're doing with SUPER. So 88 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: I guess my proposal here is if you're wanting to 89 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 2: sort of figure out where you can claw back some 90 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 2: of the money that isn't currently sort of targeted to 91 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: the people that need it the most. New Zealand Super 92 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: is far and away the area that you need to 93 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: address first. Yes, you might be willing to address those 94 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 2: other areas too, but you're talking since on the dollar 95 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: compared to what you're doing. If you change New Zealand Super, 96 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: we literally are getting to the point heither where we 97 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: will be spending one in five dollars that government spends 98 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 2: will be on New Zealand Souper in about a decade's time. 99 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 2: So all the other stuff is pipsqueaks. 100 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: Ay you means testing it or are you just going 101 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: sixty five to sixty seven for everybody? 102 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: I would probably look at doing both. I mean, the 103 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 2: sixty five to sixty seven shift is purely because life 104 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 2: expectancy has increased from where it was in the nineteen 105 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 2: nineties when we last change give a brand. 106 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to come back to you on this, and 107 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 1: I'm say it's very easy for you to say this 108 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: because you sit on your butt all day doing economics. Right, 109 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: you try telling this to a builder who's carrying gigantic 110 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: pieces of timber since he was seventeen eighteen years old. 111 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: His body is broken by sixty never mind sixty five, 112 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:52,239 Speaker 1: never mind sixty seven. 113 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: Then you address that in the right way through targeting, 114 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 2: not by providing it to everyone. Because while I might 115 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 2: agree with you there around the light of construction workers 116 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: and some of my father is one of them, you 117 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 2: look at the number of people there that are still 118 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: getting paid plus when they're over the age of sixty five, 119 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 2: that are also doing jobs just like mine. 120 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: And I'm not another one for you, Okay, I'm. 121 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 2: Thinking here that you would argue I expect that looking 122 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 2: at that same example, if you had Brad age sixty 123 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 2: seven currently doing his economists role, are you wanting to 124 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 2: give him New Zealand Super? Can you really support that? Brad? 125 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: I think that you've paid a lot in your taxes 126 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: and you deserve to be looked after, and if you 127 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: don't want to work at sixty five year entitled too. 128 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 2: But that's a difference here because I haven't actually contributed 129 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: anything through to my future New Zealand Super payments. All 130 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 2: I'm doing at the moment as a taxpayer under thirty 131 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: is I'm currently paying for the Super for those who 132 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: are currently retired. There is no pre payment here of 133 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 2: New Zealand Super apart from a bit of an adjustment 134 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 2: in the color fund. But put it this way for you, 135 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: hither when you're not currently retired, you have not pre 136 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 2: paid anything for you, take it owes you nothing? 137 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: Okay. I totally accept that argument. I mean emotionally they do. 138 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: But I understand what you're say. But what about this? Okay? 139 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: So if we were to adjust sixty five to sixty seven, 140 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: when are we doing it? 141 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: I would start to increase it by anywhere from three 142 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: to six months almost immediately. 143 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,239 Speaker 1: No, but you're you, You don't get to call the shots. 144 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,479 Speaker 1: Let's be realistic about this. When are the politicians going 145 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: to do it? When did Bill english Shake. 146 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 2: Still be alive? I don't know if I'll still be 147 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 2: alive when the politicians. 148 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: Okay, I mean what you're arguing about is something that 149 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: they will start signaling now for thirty years from now. 150 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: Okay? 151 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: Can we wait that long? 152 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: Well? No, I don't think we can start. 153 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: With the tertiary stuff immediately and then we'll pencil that 154 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: and for later down the track. 155 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: But here are you really saying though that you think 156 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 2: that the country is totally on board with changing things 157 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 2: up and making it harder for young people. But we 158 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 2: shouldn't be able to touch what older people. Yes, that 159 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 2: is wrong, That is absolutely wrong. And if that's the 160 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 2: country that we live in, I'm really sad and worried 161 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 2: for our future. 162 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: No have you did you not learn to respect your elders? 163 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,119 Speaker 2: Can't we learn to respect my olders? But I also 164 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 2: learned that respect has to be earned, not just given. 165 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 2: And I think that even those who are over sixty 166 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 2: five must recognize at this point that just getting paid 167 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 2: money for every single over sixty five year old just 168 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 2: by simply existing is not the best way to spend 169 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: twenty three billion dollars, the largest single piece of spending 170 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 2: outside of the healthcare system. 171 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: Brad, I love your enthusiasm. Thank you for talking me 172 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: through it. You've given me a lot to think about. 173 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to go away and think about it, and 174 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: I hope you'll think about some of the stuff, maybe 175 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: some of the stuff I said to you. Brad Olson, 176 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: Principal economist, Adam for Metrics. 177 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 178 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 2: news talks that'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 179 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.