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Speaker 1: As promised, President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on goods

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Speaker 1: coming from Canada, Mexico and China twenty five percent on

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Speaker 1: imports from Canada and Mexico, China's getting ten percent. All

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Speaker 1: three countries plan a counterattack. Canada has already done that,

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Speaker 1: albeit reluctantly. And so to talk about this, I am

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Speaker 1: joined by geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller.

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Speaker 2: Hello Jeffrey, Good morning, Andrew.

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Speaker 1: It's all on it's trade wars.

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Speaker 2: It is indeed, this is the beginning of a new

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Speaker 2: trade war, and it's just not going to be good

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Speaker 2: for a country like New Zealand. There's an old African

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Speaker 2: proverb that says, when the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.

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Speaker 2: I think that's applicable here.

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Speaker 1: Very good. We'll talk about that more in a moment.

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Speaker 1: But it's going to affect America as well. There's an

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Speaker 1: analysis by Ernest Young that suggests it will reduce UK

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Speaker 1: growth US growth should I say, by one point five

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Speaker 1: percentage points this year, which you don't want. Canada and

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Speaker 1: Mexico will be thrown into recession and there will be

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Speaker 1: stagflation in all three countries. Do you think Americans and

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump truly understand the economic consequences.

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Speaker 2: No, I think we're in uncharted territory here. I don't

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Speaker 2: think we've been here really since the Great Depression. In

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Speaker 2: many ways, there are similar action taken back in nineteen

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Speaker 2: thirty ironically, and it does have, yes, does seem familiar

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Speaker 2: in a sense from that time, because the tariffs that

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump placed on us during his first term we're

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Speaker 2: lower in nature. The tariff that he's promising now are

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Speaker 2: about three times the level. They're much broader based. There

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Speaker 2: aren't really the exceptions except for Canadian energy, which we'll

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Speaker 2: get a ten percent tariff ratherland twenty five percent. But

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Speaker 2: the tariffs on China's pretty much on everything. Ten percent

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Speaker 2: on all Chinese goods and twenty five percent all goods

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Speaker 2: from coming from Mexico. So it's a big play from

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and the markets don't like it. We're expecting

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Speaker 2: tumbles in the markets when they open on Monday, anywhere

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Speaker 2: between half and one percent. It could be more on

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Speaker 2: the days to come, and that might be the only

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Speaker 2: thing that possibly changes Donald Trump's mind.

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Speaker 1: Trudeau has laid out retaliatory tariffs and made it very

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Speaker 1: clear he's done so reluctantly. Mexico says they will follow.

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Speaker 1: So apparently America has retaliatory tariffs already ir regulated for

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Speaker 1: so if you do that, it happens as fighting tariffs

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Speaker 1: with tariff's a good move.

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Speaker 2: Well, the fighting fire with fire and not backing down.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's a game of brinksmanship here, and Justin

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Speaker 2: Trudeau will be betting on some kind of resolution, a

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Speaker 2: deal being done. Of course, Donald Trump loves the deal,

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Speaker 2: and he'll be hoping for much the same thing, because

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Speaker 2: in the end, this is being used as a powerplay.

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Speaker 2: It's being used that Donald Trump is putting these tariffs

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Speaker 2: in place under emergency legislation dating back to nineteen seventy seven,

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Speaker 2: which is why he's got these reasons of sentinel and

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Speaker 2: illegal immigration as the reasons, because he needs a rationale

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Speaker 2: for doing this, and he's looking for concessions much in

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Speaker 2: the way that he got concessions from Columbia. Columbia had

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Speaker 2: to agree to take in those deportation flights, and he'll

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Speaker 2: be looking for similar kinds of concessions from Mexico and

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Speaker 2: Canada and getting the United States, as he would see it,

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Speaker 2: a better deal.

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Speaker 1: So look what kind of message is this sending to

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Speaker 1: the world. Canada is a close ally of America. Look

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Speaker 1: at justin Trudeau's speech. He evoked all the fighting on

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Speaker 1: the beaches and the wars and everything. You know, we

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Speaker 1: are a close friend, and yet they still have not

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Speaker 1: been spared. So does New Zealand need to be wary here?

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Speaker 2: Indeed, look the lesson here is that no one is immune.

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Speaker 2: If Donald Trump is willing to place tariff's on Canada,

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Speaker 2: he's also threatening to place tariffs on the EU, then

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Speaker 2: New Zealand. I don't think he's got any real protection.

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Speaker 2: New Zealand isn't a formal US allies, a bit more

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Speaker 2: distance than the likes of Canada and Australia the UK,

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Speaker 2: so I don't think New zeal would have any great immunity.

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Speaker 2: New Zealand exports sixteen billion New Zealand dollars worth of

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Speaker 2: goods and services to the US every year, even while

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Speaker 2: there are restrictions on what we export. New Zealand's still

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Speaker 2: the exports two and a half billion dollars worth of

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Speaker 2: beef and other meata exports to the US every year

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Speaker 2: despite the being restrictions on it. I mean just that alone,

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Speaker 2: the meat exports that New Zealand sends to the US

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Speaker 2: every year. That alone is about the entirety or even

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Speaker 2: slightly more than what we export to the Golf region

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Speaker 2: every year. And we just signed that new free trade

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Speaker 2: agreement always conclude in negotiations on that the end of

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Speaker 2: last year.

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Speaker 1: Take it into account that we need to be wary.

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Speaker 1: The question is should we speak out about what's actually

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Speaker 1: happening in the world right now? Would that be dangerous?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question. Do you want to poke

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Speaker 2: your head up above the parapet and speak out all

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Speaker 2: that just leads you to being clobbed. I think we're

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Speaker 2: going to be in Donald Trump's site anyway. As I say,

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Speaker 2: if Canada and the EU are, then New Zealand can't

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Speaker 2: be far away because we've got even less protection less

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Speaker 2: to offer, we're much smaller. I think probably the answer

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Speaker 2: at the moment is to keep our heads down and

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Speaker 2: work with diplomatic channel. So I think Winston Peter's the

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Speaker 2: Fire Minister, Tom McLay, the Trade Minister, should be working

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Speaker 2: the phones with their counterpart and trying to get senacy

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Speaker 2: to prevail here, because in the end everyone's going to

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Speaker 2: be the loser.

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Speaker 1: With a trade war, That's true. Thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Jeffrey Miller.

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