WEBVTT - Ceasefire called in India-Pakistan tension - How long will it last?

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<v Speaker 1>Curta. I'm Richard Martin in for Chelsea Daniels and this

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<v Speaker 1>is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand Herald. After a week of tensions, India and

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<v Speaker 1>Pakistan have reached a ceasefire deal. Tensions over the disputed

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<v Speaker 1>territory of Kashmir were reignited after a massacre of Hindu

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<v Speaker 1>tourists last month, leading to a series of bombings between

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<v Speaker 1>the two countries that sparked fears they would return to

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<v Speaker 1>all out war. While the ceasefire deal is holding for now,

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<v Speaker 1>many in the Kashmir region are hoping a permanent solution

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<v Speaker 1>can be found. Today on the Front Page, Auckland University

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<v Speaker 1>Director of Global Studies, Chris Ogden is with us to

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<v Speaker 1>explain the historical tensions between the two countries and what

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<v Speaker 1>is needed for permanent peace. Okay, so to start off

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<v Speaker 1>with Christus might be a bit of a loaded question,

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<v Speaker 1>but can you explain to us what the Kashmir region

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<v Speaker 1>is and why it's disputed by both India and Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's the territory that straddles the border between India

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<v Speaker 2>and Pakistan and it's been under dispute since the two

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<v Speaker 2>countries came into formation after the ending of British India

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen forty seven, and the end of British India

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<v Speaker 2>came about due to partition, where the territory was split

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<v Speaker 2>into Muslim dominated areas and other areas within India, and

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<v Speaker 2>that whole region and Kashmir was disputed from the very beginning.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a war almost immediately after the mutual independences,

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<v Speaker 2>and then there have been wars periodically across the time

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<v Speaker 2>since then. A lot of it's to do with territory,

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<v Speaker 2>but realistically it's also to do with identity. Which country

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<v Speaker 2>is the dominant Muslim entity, which one represents all the

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<v Speaker 2>other religions on the subcontinent, and for that reason it's

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<v Speaker 2>seen as being highly existential. And both sides they lose Kashmir,

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<v Speaker 2>they can lose other bits of their territory and that

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<v Speaker 2>could be the end of their kind of national independencies.

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<v Speaker 1>And then just in terms of this latest round of bombings,

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<v Speaker 1>can you run us through what prompted that?

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, so one thing that's happened over the years. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not just that Pakistan and India have had say, direct

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<v Speaker 2>military conflicts, but there have been other ways that they've

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<v Speaker 2>kind of needed each other or tried to have contract

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<v Speaker 2>to proxies. Pakistan has been very adept at doing this,

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<v Speaker 2>in particular by harnessing terrorist groups that it trains in

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<v Speaker 2>its territory and then sending them into India and causing

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<v Speaker 2>attacks either within Indian control Kashmir or other parts of India.

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<v Speaker 2>Rather and this is what happened a couple of weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 2>where a group went in who are.

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<v Speaker 3>Affiliated to a group called Lashkar Etoiba.

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<v Speaker 2>Who are a very long standing kind of fall in

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<v Speaker 2>the side for India in terms of terrorism. They've carried

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<v Speaker 2>out lots of different and terrorist attacks, and they attacked

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<v Speaker 2>tourists in Kashmir in Indian control Kashmir.

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<v Speaker 3>With a direct religious dimension to it.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's said that before people were killed, they were

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<v Speaker 2>asked if they could in tone parts of the Quran,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, and if they couldn't, then they were directly

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<v Speaker 2>targeted and executed. Those events combined with an uncertainty about

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<v Speaker 2>exactly whose control are under which is an ongoing dimension

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<v Speaker 2>of all of these tensions, that often we don't know

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<v Speaker 2>exactly who's controlling these groups, if it's the Pakistani military

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<v Speaker 2>or the intelligence services of the government itself, I think

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<v Speaker 2>provoked lots of the emotions of previous conflicts, including even

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<v Speaker 2>going back to nineteen forty seven that then it was

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<v Speaker 2>kind of irregular troops you came in. And this has

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<v Speaker 2>reasserted these linkages between the events of last week and

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<v Speaker 2>all of that, those toxic, very emotional kind of experiences

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<v Speaker 2>from the past that then vote the Indians into the

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<v Speaker 2>reaction that they had.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting because now we've reached a ceasefire really quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>And do you think that this was a case of

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of both sides getting tip for tat, but

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<v Speaker 1>of retaliation and against the other and then moving on,

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<v Speaker 1>or do you think there was a chance that this

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<v Speaker 1>could have turned into all that war?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I think first of all, there's always

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<v Speaker 2>a chance of rapid and very quick escalation, which often

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<v Speaker 2>is based upon tip for tap, but is also driven

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<v Speaker 2>by high degrees of nationalism on either side. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>not possible if you're the Indian prime minister or the

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistani prime minister to not react if you're attacked in

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<v Speaker 2>some way, either towards your civilians or towards your military.

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<v Speaker 2>So there always has to be some kind of retaliation

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<v Speaker 2>in this case, there is definitive retaliation from both sides repeatedly.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can draw different conclusions or kind of

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<v Speaker 2>get to different endpoints. One could be you could say

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<v Speaker 2>that both sides are kind of testing out the other.

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<v Speaker 3>So in this.

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<v Speaker 2>Conflict, if we can call it a conflict, we saw

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<v Speaker 2>the use of drones from both sides, which hasn't happened before.

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<v Speaker 2>We also saw incursions, particularly into Pakistani territory that we've

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<v Speaker 2>not seen for decades and decades. And some of this

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<v Speaker 2>can be testing capabilities of the other side, trying to

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<v Speaker 2>understand how to respond militarily effectively, but also seeing what

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<v Speaker 2>their defensive systems are like. But many reports are also

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<v Speaker 2>saying that because of the emotional side, plus the capability side,

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<v Speaker 2>plus the proximity side, escalation was expected to really increase,

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<v Speaker 2>some ramp up rapidly over the weekend. I think what's

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<v Speaker 2>also notable too, is is that in many Indian reports

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment, they're saying that they don't recognize it

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<v Speaker 2>as a ceasefire, and they say that their military forces

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<v Speaker 2>are still on high preparedness, and so the perspective from

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<v Speaker 2>their side is first of all, on ongoing fear but

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<v Speaker 2>also think they've tried to kind of exsert.

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<v Speaker 3>A high degree of cost on the Pakistani.

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<v Speaker 2>Side to say, if you are supporting these groups and

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<v Speaker 2>these attacks happen, you can expect more of this in

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<v Speaker 2>the future.

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<v Speaker 4>It will be a challenge for the international community to

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<v Speaker 4>keep that and maintain. You know, this cease fire that

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<v Speaker 4>has been announced, well, it has come from the highest

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<v Speaker 4>office in America. So President Trump has a very good

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<v Speaker 4>relationship with Prime Minister Modi. He's called him his a

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<v Speaker 4>very good friend, and every time they've met, they've hugged,

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<v Speaker 4>and he maintains that Prime Minister Mody is a good

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<v Speaker 4>friend of America. And I'm sure there will be a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of pressure on the political establishment out here to

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<v Speaker 4>make sure that this cease fire holds.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, do we know the details of sort of what's

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<v Speaker 1>been agreed so far?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the only details so far are is the

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<v Speaker 2>recognition that if both sides don't stop, or at least

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<v Speaker 2>if one side doesn't stop, then that escalation will just

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<v Speaker 2>mount up a mount up. So I think that's what

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<v Speaker 2>all these diplomats from all these countries have done. They've

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<v Speaker 2>been able to pull back both sides from further escalation.

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<v Speaker 2>The other thing that I'm aware of is that certainly

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<v Speaker 2>the Pakistani side was quite shocked by the incursions into

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<v Speaker 2>its territory by Indian drones and missiles, the direct targeting

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<v Speaker 2>of military installations. So in the past the targeting would

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<v Speaker 2>often been against terrorist camps. But here again, I think

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<v Speaker 2>the Indian strategy is is you hit much much harder

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<v Speaker 2>to make the other side much more afraid. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>continuing now that there's retro coming out from the Indian

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<v Speaker 2>side about how their ships were prepared to attack Karachi,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, or other major cities. So I think what's

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<v Speaker 2>happened is is that that kind of tip for tap

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<v Speaker 2>has been and that's allowed there to be calm. But again,

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<v Speaker 2>the amount of military preparedness is still there, so I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think either side has certainly not pulled back all

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<v Speaker 2>its troops. I think it's more a recognition from the

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<v Speaker 2>international community of the dangers of what can happen quite

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<v Speaker 2>quickly in South Asia.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and both sides have now claimed victory as well,

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<v Speaker 1>is that right?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they have.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is the other thing, so you know, now

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<v Speaker 2>there's a kind of battle for narratives, there's a battle

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<v Speaker 2>for the kind of moral high ground, if that is

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<v Speaker 2>even possible in this situation. And certainly on one level,

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<v Speaker 2>you could say that both leaders have had the chance

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<v Speaker 2>to prove that they are strong in the sense of

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<v Speaker 2>a terrorist attack has occurred, India has reacted with force.

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistan has then have been able to react with force.

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<v Speaker 2>But certainly these kind of claims and counter claims will

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<v Speaker 2>keep on going. I feel certain that Pakistan will now

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<v Speaker 2>come out with statements to say, well, we were always

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<v Speaker 2>prepared to hit Deli with weapons or these other major

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<v Speaker 2>cities with weapons as well. But I guess within all

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<v Speaker 2>of that is how useful is that in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>diffusing tensions, because in many ways it's just kind of

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<v Speaker 2>ramping up the rhetoric even further even though there isn't

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<v Speaker 2>direct conflict, and in that sense, the kind of triggers

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<v Speaker 2>or the kind of sense of it being a powder

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<v Speaker 2>keg haven't gone away.

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<v Speaker 1>I've read some commentary with people from Kashmir have spoken

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<v Speaker 1>up about this latest incident, and many of them have

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<v Speaker 1>said that they want to see some sort of permanent

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<v Speaker 1>solution in place for their country. Do you think that

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<v Speaker 1>there's any path to that realistically?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So this is a.

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<v Speaker 2>Really this is a really interesting observation, right because often

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<v Speaker 2>within this conflict, we think, well, there's this disputed territory.

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<v Speaker 2>India claims it's part of its territory and it needs

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<v Speaker 2>that for its kind of territory integrity. From the other side,

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistan claims it, and Pakistan's a acrosstic interestingly, so its

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<v Speaker 2>name comes from different bits of its territory. So the

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<v Speaker 2>K in pakistanis for Kashmir, so it makes it truly existential.

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<v Speaker 2>But we often forget about what the Kashmiri's want, and

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<v Speaker 2>most Kashmiris, I think in most polls consistently across time,

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<v Speaker 2>would like some kind of plebiscite or referendum which would

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<v Speaker 2>give them the right to choose their future, including their

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<v Speaker 2>own self determination. So there are three pathways that Kashmi

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<v Speaker 2>could go to Pakistan. Kashmi could go to India, or

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<v Speaker 2>Kashmir could become independent.

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<v Speaker 3>For the big players in the region, and.

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<v Speaker 2>We should also remember that China holds ten percent of

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<v Speaker 2>Kashmir territory, the idea of Kashmir becoming independent will not

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<v Speaker 2>satisfy or help anybody from those big actors.

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<v Speaker 3>But certainly if you live in Kashmir, you.

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<v Speaker 2>Live in very difficult circumstances, so your kind of day

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<v Speaker 2>to day life will be heavily militarized. If you live

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<v Speaker 2>in Kashmir for say the last two to three years,

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<v Speaker 2>the vast majority of that time you'll have had no

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<v Speaker 2>internet because the Internet will have been switched off because

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<v Speaker 2>it's considered from the Indian side to be too much

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<v Speaker 2>of the security threat and also quite high degrees of poverty.

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<v Speaker 2>So one interesting thing about this attack was that it

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<v Speaker 2>was directly against tourists, and maybe the militants chose to

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<v Speaker 2>do that as a way to break down the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of emergent tourist industry within that region. And again, these

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<v Speaker 2>are all things that are directly affecting people on the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>So in terms of that Kashmir voice, I think it's lost.

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<v Speaker 2>It could definitely be stronger. But again this maybe explains

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<v Speaker 2>why the border within Kashmir between India and Pakistan hasn't

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<v Speaker 2>really changed much since nineteen forty seven, because the status

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<v Speaker 2>quo is the kind of it's kind of the way

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<v Speaker 2>to muddle through the mess.

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<v Speaker 5>I think in different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>India is one of the fastest growing populations on the

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<v Speaker 1>planet and one of the biggest populations in general, and

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<v Speaker 1>it does sort of seem like lately the country is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to rise out of being seen as this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of third world subcontinent. They're eyeing up trade deals with

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<v Speaker 1>countries like New Zealand and I believe they're even eyeing

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<v Speaker 1>up a bid for the Olympics in twenty thirty six.

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<v Speaker 1>So would go against Prime Minister Modi's attempts to sell

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<v Speaker 1>the country on the world stage to get embroiled in

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<v Speaker 1>a conflict like this.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so it definitely seems paradoxical, doesn't it. It does

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<v Speaker 2>seem as though engaging this conflict, or at least escalating

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<v Speaker 2>and pushing it further, would be detrimental to India's self image.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the biggest thing to think about, though, is

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<v Speaker 2>that I would argue that India is now becoming a

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<v Speaker 2>great power in the sense that it's highly influential on

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<v Speaker 2>the global stage. It's huge economy, huge population, as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 2>so huge emergent middle class, lots of military spending that

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<v Speaker 2>this is quite unknown in the West, but it's important,

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<v Speaker 2>more weapons than any other country in the last sixty

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<v Speaker 2>years in terms of overall spending. And if we think

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<v Speaker 2>about what's happening in the global system as a whole.

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<v Speaker 2>There are lots of pressures against a rise in China

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<v Speaker 2>and a need for countries to counterbalance against China, and

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<v Speaker 2>India's key to all of that. So in many ways,

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 2>because India has become more essentially necessary in global politics,

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 2>in a sense, it protects it from direct criticism. So

0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 2>if you're going to India, for example, this could be

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.680
<v Speaker 2>New Zealand, but the kind of big ones would be

0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 2>saying the UK and the US. I think Indian leaders

0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 2>will say, you know, if you want a trade deal,

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.880
<v Speaker 2>that's great, and we really want one, but make sure

0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 2>you don't criticize us when it comes to Kashmir. We

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.960
<v Speaker 2>see this as an internal issue. So I think that

0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 2>positional factor actually plays into places to India's advantage. And

0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.320
<v Speaker 2>then beyond that, you could also say that it appears

0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:03.680
<v Speaker 2>that the UA is kind of decoupling or pulling itself

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 2>out of global affairs. And if you are an ally

0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 2>over the United States, such as say Israel, then in

0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 2>many ways there are fewer controls in terms of how

0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:21.480
<v Speaker 2>you conduct your policy, and certainly there are fewer leaders

0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 2>in place who are able to maybe pull back conflicts

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:29.400
<v Speaker 2>or pullback escalation, and I think that's also partly something

0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 2>to do with India's calculation. And then one final facts

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 2>would be and that this is also quite under reported

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 2>that Pakistan itself are combating militants in Pakistan and Balukistan

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 2>who want to separate from the country. They're also combating

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.920
<v Speaker 2>the Taliban on their border with Afghanistan. So many senses,

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 2>the attempt to maybe regain Kashmir, or at least rebalance

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 2>the relationship is a prime opportunity for India at the moment.

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:02.960
<v Speaker 6>From as the Moodia and I sat down today and

0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 6>we charted out the future of our two countries relationship,

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 6>a future that builds from where we have been and

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.520
<v Speaker 6>one that is wholly more ambitious about what we will

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:14.640
<v Speaker 6>do together in the future. We agreed to our defense

0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.400
<v Speaker 6>forces building greater strategic trust with one another while deploying

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:22.479
<v Speaker 6>together and training together more. We want our scientists collaborating

0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 6>on global challenges like climate change and on commercial opportunities

0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 6>like space. We are supporting our businesses to improve airlinks

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:33.560
<v Speaker 6>and build primary sector cooperation. We will facilitate students and

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 6>young professionals and tourists to move between our two countries,

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 6>and we've instructed our trade negotiators to get on and

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 6>negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement between our two great nations.

0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:52.000
<v Speaker 1>Just on New Zealand specifically, we're pursuing quite close ties

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>with India at the moment. It seems to really be

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.600
<v Speaker 1>Christopher Luckson's big sort of trade bet. Do you think

0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.200
<v Speaker 1>what sort of position does that leave us in if

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 1>they were to engage in war.

0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 2>So I think fundamentally with Kashmir, the Indian position has

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:10.040
<v Speaker 2>always been this is an internal issue. They also strongly

0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 2>believe in kind of anti interventionist values or norms, so

0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 2>that stems from their colonial period. So there have been

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 2>lots of powers in the past who've tried to interfere

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 2>or negotiate or mediate about Kashmir, and they nearly every

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.680
<v Speaker 2>single time they get told, this isn't to do with you.

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 5>This is our kind of issue.

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 2>Within that context, even though it might seem quite uncomfortable.

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 2>I do think it's possible to separate different dimensions of

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 2>foreign policies. So it's very possible to have lots of

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 2>great trade with India. India does this with China, for example,

0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 2>but when it comes to its territorial dispute or a

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 2>dispute in another area of international politics, then that dispute

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 2>will kind of take place. So I think from a

0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:59.120
<v Speaker 2>New Zealand point of view, you can emphasize the trade.

0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:02.520
<v Speaker 2>That's definitely possible. I think when it starts to move

0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 2>into politics, human rights, treatment of minorities, those sensitivities, the

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:12.119
<v Speaker 2>Indians will definitely push them back and remove them from negotiation.

0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 2>In terms of a conflict. I don't think India will

0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 2>be looking to anybody in terms of say international support

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 2>or justification. So in many senses that would leave possibilities

0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 2>for New Zealand in terms of probably what most other

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 2>countries are doing at the moment, asking for restraint, pointing

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:34.679
<v Speaker 2>out the regional ramifications, pointing out the ramifications in terms

0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 2>potentially in terms of trade and how that might affect

0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 2>other countries.

0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:40.720
<v Speaker 5>And one final.

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.960
<v Speaker 2>Point would be maybe New Zealand has a benefit in

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:47.160
<v Speaker 2>being quite a small country, so certainly a trade deal

0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.680
<v Speaker 2>is beneficial for everybody involved, but in many ways it's

0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.399
<v Speaker 2>probably more beneficial for New Zealand than it is for

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:55.200
<v Speaker 2>India and the overall scheme of things.

0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.320
<v Speaker 1>So just finally, Chris how likely do you think it

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.240
<v Speaker 1>is that there will be peace in the short and

0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 1>long term in Kashmia.

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.399
<v Speaker 2>My feeling right now is is I don't think that

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.000
<v Speaker 2>this is finished, So I think I think it's very

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:11.399
<v Speaker 2>easy for these tensions to kind of blow up again.

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:15.239
<v Speaker 2>It's intriguing to think if the leaders do me and

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 2>this has happened in the aftermath of every other kind

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 2>of conflagration or conflict, to see what they're able to negotiate.

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.640
<v Speaker 2>Because India is definitely much stronger than it ever has

0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:31.040
<v Speaker 2>been relative to Pakistan in terms of the exceptionally long term,

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 2>it's very difficult to determine that, primarily because parties such

0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.680
<v Speaker 2>as the BJP, the ruling party at the moment in India,

0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:44.640
<v Speaker 2>are super Hindu nationalists. It is one of their aims

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:47.399
<v Speaker 2>to regain Kashmir, and it is possible to think of

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 2>scenarios in the future where they would try to militarily

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 2>gain Kashmir. And again, if this was just the kind

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.960
<v Speaker 2>of testing to see how Pakistan would react, that's also

0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:00.520
<v Speaker 2>possible overall. Though on balance, so if we look at

0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 2>the last seventy five years, it's status quo.

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 5>Which has kind of been there.

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 2>So the current split between territory and Kashmir has stayed

0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:14.520
<v Speaker 2>where it is. There are periodic issues, periodic tensions, periodic

0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 2>flare ups, and then with a broader hope for all

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 2>of us that that doesn't escalate very quickly into a

0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 2>nuclear confrontation.

0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for joining us, Chris.

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:23.600
<v Speaker 5>Pleasure, Thanks for having me.

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.440
<v Speaker 1>We should note that the Pakistani government has denied any

0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:32.199
<v Speaker 1>involvement in the Peholgam attack and disputes India's claims that

0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:39.160
<v Speaker 1>Pakistani linked groups were responsible for the attack. So that's

0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:42.040
<v Speaker 1>it for this episode of the Front Page. You can

0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:45.960
<v Speaker 1>read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:50.440
<v Speaker 1>inzherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced

0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>by Ethan Sills. I'm Richard Martin. Subscribe to the Front

0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:58.879
<v Speaker 1>Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:02.040
<v Speaker 1>tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:10.760
<v Speaker 5>MHM.