1
00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:07,680
Speaker 1: Curta. I'm Richard Martin in for Chelsea Daniels and this

2
00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,880
Speaker 1: is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the

3
00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:18,079
Speaker 1: New Zealand Herald. After a week of tensions, India and

4
00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 1: Pakistan have reached a ceasefire deal. Tensions over the disputed

5
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 1: territory of Kashmir were reignited after a massacre of Hindu

6
00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 1: tourists last month, leading to a series of bombings between

7
00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,040
Speaker 1: the two countries that sparked fears they would return to

8
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,040
Speaker 1: all out war. While the ceasefire deal is holding for now,

9
00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,680
Speaker 1: many in the Kashmir region are hoping a permanent solution

10
00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,200
Speaker 1: can be found. Today on the Front Page, Auckland University

11
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: Director of Global Studies, Chris Ogden is with us to

12
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,320
Speaker 1: explain the historical tensions between the two countries and what

13
00:00:52,520 --> 00:01:00,000
Speaker 1: is needed for permanent peace. Okay, so to start off

14
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 1: with Christus might be a bit of a loaded question,

15
00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,920
Speaker 1: but can you explain to us what the Kashmir region

16
00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,640
Speaker 1: is and why it's disputed by both India and Pakistan.

17
00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,640
Speaker 2: So it's the territory that straddles the border between India

18
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 2: and Pakistan and it's been under dispute since the two

19
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:21,600
Speaker 2: countries came into formation after the ending of British India

20
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,759
Speaker 2: in nineteen forty seven, and the end of British India

21
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,640
Speaker 2: came about due to partition, where the territory was split

22
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,320
Speaker 2: into Muslim dominated areas and other areas within India, and

23
00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,800
Speaker 2: that whole region and Kashmir was disputed from the very beginning.

24
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,240
Speaker 2: There was a war almost immediately after the mutual independences,

25
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,400
Speaker 2: and then there have been wars periodically across the time

26
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,320
Speaker 2: since then. A lot of it's to do with territory,

27
00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,960
Speaker 2: but realistically it's also to do with identity. Which country

28
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 2: is the dominant Muslim entity, which one represents all the

29
00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,480
Speaker 2: other religions on the subcontinent, and for that reason it's

30
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,520
Speaker 2: seen as being highly existential. And both sides they lose Kashmir,

31
00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 2: they can lose other bits of their territory and that

32
00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,200
Speaker 2: could be the end of their kind of national independencies.

33
00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,639
Speaker 1: And then just in terms of this latest round of bombings,

34
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,160
Speaker 1: can you run us through what prompted that?

35
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 2: Yep, so one thing that's happened over the years. It's

36
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 2: not just that Pakistan and India have had say, direct

37
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,400
Speaker 2: military conflicts, but there have been other ways that they've

38
00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,000
Speaker 2: kind of needed each other or tried to have contract

39
00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,799
Speaker 2: to proxies. Pakistan has been very adept at doing this,

40
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,880
Speaker 2: in particular by harnessing terrorist groups that it trains in

41
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:40,160
Speaker 2: its territory and then sending them into India and causing

42
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 2: attacks either within Indian control Kashmir or other parts of India.

43
00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,840
Speaker 2: Rather and this is what happened a couple of weeks ago,

44
00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,000
Speaker 2: where a group went in who are.

45
00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,200
Speaker 3: Affiliated to a group called Lashkar Etoiba.

46
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,240
Speaker 2: Who are a very long standing kind of fall in

47
00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,360
Speaker 2: the side for India in terms of terrorism. They've carried

48
00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,040
Speaker 2: out lots of different and terrorist attacks, and they attacked

49
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,239
Speaker 2: tourists in Kashmir in Indian control Kashmir.

50
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,720
Speaker 3: With a direct religious dimension to it.

51
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,799
Speaker 2: So it's said that before people were killed, they were

52
00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,440
Speaker 2: asked if they could in tone parts of the Quran,

53
00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,480
Speaker 2: for example, and if they couldn't, then they were directly

54
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:24,440
Speaker 2: targeted and executed. Those events combined with an uncertainty about

55
00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,320
Speaker 2: exactly whose control are under which is an ongoing dimension

56
00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,520
Speaker 2: of all of these tensions, that often we don't know

57
00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,519
Speaker 2: exactly who's controlling these groups, if it's the Pakistani military

58
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,040
Speaker 2: or the intelligence services of the government itself, I think

59
00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 2: provoked lots of the emotions of previous conflicts, including even

60
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 2: going back to nineteen forty seven that then it was

61
00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,680
Speaker 2: kind of irregular troops you came in. And this has

62
00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 2: reasserted these linkages between the events of last week and

63
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 2: all of that, those toxic, very emotional kind of experiences

64
00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 2: from the past that then vote the Indians into the

65
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,360
Speaker 2: reaction that they had.

66
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 1: It's interesting because now we've reached a ceasefire really quickly.

67
00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:09,440
Speaker 1: And do you think that this was a case of

68
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 1: just sort of both sides getting tip for tat, but

69
00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 1: of retaliation and against the other and then moving on,

70
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,560
Speaker 1: or do you think there was a chance that this

71
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 1: could have turned into all that war?

72
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think first of all, there's always

73
00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,880
Speaker 2: a chance of rapid and very quick escalation, which often

74
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 2: is based upon tip for tap, but is also driven

75
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 2: by high degrees of nationalism on either side. So it's

76
00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,240
Speaker 2: not possible if you're the Indian prime minister or the

77
00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,440
Speaker 2: Pakistani prime minister to not react if you're attacked in

78
00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,080
Speaker 2: some way, either towards your civilians or towards your military.

79
00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:49,480
Speaker 2: So there always has to be some kind of retaliation

80
00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:55,240
Speaker 2: in this case, there is definitive retaliation from both sides repeatedly.

81
00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,760
Speaker 2: I think we can draw different conclusions or kind of

82
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,080
Speaker 2: get to different endpoints. One could be you could say

83
00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,159
Speaker 2: that both sides are kind of testing out the other.

84
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:05,680
Speaker 3: So in this.

85
00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,360
Speaker 2: Conflict, if we can call it a conflict, we saw

86
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,520
Speaker 2: the use of drones from both sides, which hasn't happened before.

87
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,920
Speaker 2: We also saw incursions, particularly into Pakistani territory that we've

88
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,599
Speaker 2: not seen for decades and decades. And some of this

89
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 2: can be testing capabilities of the other side, trying to

90
00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:27,200
Speaker 2: understand how to respond militarily effectively, but also seeing what

91
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:31,320
Speaker 2: their defensive systems are like. But many reports are also

92
00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:36,480
Speaker 2: saying that because of the emotional side, plus the capability side,

93
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:40,839
Speaker 2: plus the proximity side, escalation was expected to really increase,

94
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,279
Speaker 2: some ramp up rapidly over the weekend. I think what's

95
00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,160
Speaker 2: also notable too, is is that in many Indian reports

96
00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,839
Speaker 2: at the moment, they're saying that they don't recognize it

97
00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,960
Speaker 2: as a ceasefire, and they say that their military forces

98
00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,360
Speaker 2: are still on high preparedness, and so the perspective from

99
00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,240
Speaker 2: their side is first of all, on ongoing fear but

100
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,400
Speaker 2: also think they've tried to kind of exsert.

101
00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,919
Speaker 3: A high degree of cost on the Pakistani.

102
00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:08,720
Speaker 2: Side to say, if you are supporting these groups and

103
00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,800
Speaker 2: these attacks happen, you can expect more of this in

104
00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 2: the future.

105
00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,880
Speaker 4: It will be a challenge for the international community to

106
00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:22,760
Speaker 4: keep that and maintain. You know, this cease fire that

107
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,919
Speaker 4: has been announced, well, it has come from the highest

108
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,559
Speaker 4: office in America. So President Trump has a very good

109
00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 4: relationship with Prime Minister Modi. He's called him his a

110
00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,280
Speaker 4: very good friend, and every time they've met, they've hugged,

111
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:43,159
Speaker 4: and he maintains that Prime Minister Mody is a good

112
00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,640
Speaker 4: friend of America. And I'm sure there will be a

113
00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 4: lot of pressure on the political establishment out here to

114
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,839
Speaker 4: make sure that this cease fire holds.

115
00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, do we know the details of sort of what's

116
00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,000
Speaker 1: been agreed so far?

117
00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,960
Speaker 2: I think the only details so far are is the

118
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:05,839
Speaker 2: recognition that if both sides don't stop, or at least

119
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,320
Speaker 2: if one side doesn't stop, then that escalation will just

120
00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,680
Speaker 2: mount up a mount up. So I think that's what

121
00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,920
Speaker 2: all these diplomats from all these countries have done. They've

122
00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,680
Speaker 2: been able to pull back both sides from further escalation.

123
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 2: The other thing that I'm aware of is that certainly

124
00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,760
Speaker 2: the Pakistani side was quite shocked by the incursions into

125
00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 2: its territory by Indian drones and missiles, the direct targeting

126
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 2: of military installations. So in the past the targeting would

127
00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 2: often been against terrorist camps. But here again, I think

128
00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,680
Speaker 2: the Indian strategy is is you hit much much harder

129
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,960
Speaker 2: to make the other side much more afraid. And that's

130
00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,679
Speaker 2: continuing now that there's retro coming out from the Indian

131
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,440
Speaker 2: side about how their ships were prepared to attack Karachi,

132
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 2: for example, or other major cities. So I think what's

133
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 2: happened is is that that kind of tip for tap

134
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:04,320
Speaker 2: has been and that's allowed there to be calm. But again,

135
00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 2: the amount of military preparedness is still there, so I

136
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,360
Speaker 2: don't think either side has certainly not pulled back all

137
00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,600
Speaker 2: its troops. I think it's more a recognition from the

138
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 2: international community of the dangers of what can happen quite

139
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 2: quickly in South Asia.

140
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:19,280
Speaker 4: Yeah.

141
00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: Well, and both sides have now claimed victory as well,

142
00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 1: is that right?

143
00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:22,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have.

144
00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,480
Speaker 2: And this is the other thing, so you know, now

145
00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 2: there's a kind of battle for narratives, there's a battle

146
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,760
Speaker 2: for the kind of moral high ground, if that is

147
00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,959
Speaker 2: even possible in this situation. And certainly on one level,

148
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,199
Speaker 2: you could say that both leaders have had the chance

149
00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:41,520
Speaker 2: to prove that they are strong in the sense of

150
00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 2: a terrorist attack has occurred, India has reacted with force.

151
00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,560
Speaker 2: Pakistan has then have been able to react with force.

152
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,840
Speaker 2: But certainly these kind of claims and counter claims will

153
00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,360
Speaker 2: keep on going. I feel certain that Pakistan will now

154
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,280
Speaker 2: come out with statements to say, well, we were always

155
00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,400
Speaker 2: prepared to hit Deli with weapons or these other major

156
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,280
Speaker 2: cities with weapons as well. But I guess within all

157
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,480
Speaker 2: of that is how useful is that in terms of

158
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 2: diffusing tensions, because in many ways it's just kind of

159
00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,680
Speaker 2: ramping up the rhetoric even further even though there isn't

160
00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:19,800
Speaker 2: direct conflict, and in that sense, the kind of triggers

161
00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:21,600
Speaker 2: or the kind of sense of it being a powder

162
00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:31,400
Speaker 2: keg haven't gone away.

163
00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,360
Speaker 1: I've read some commentary with people from Kashmir have spoken

164
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,880
Speaker 1: up about this latest incident, and many of them have

165
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 1: said that they want to see some sort of permanent

166
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,720
Speaker 1: solution in place for their country. Do you think that

167
00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,719
Speaker 1: there's any path to that realistically?

168
00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:47,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, So this is a.

169
00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,520
Speaker 2: Really this is a really interesting observation, right because often

170
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,319
Speaker 2: within this conflict, we think, well, there's this disputed territory.

171
00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 2: India claims it's part of its territory and it needs

172
00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:01,840
Speaker 2: that for its kind of territory integrity. From the other side,

173
00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,560
Speaker 2: Pakistan claims it, and Pakistan's a acrosstic interestingly, so its

174
00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,719
Speaker 2: name comes from different bits of its territory. So the

175
00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 2: K in pakistanis for Kashmir, so it makes it truly existential.

176
00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 2: But we often forget about what the Kashmiri's want, and

177
00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 2: most Kashmiris, I think in most polls consistently across time,

178
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,440
Speaker 2: would like some kind of plebiscite or referendum which would

179
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,719
Speaker 2: give them the right to choose their future, including their

180
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,680
Speaker 2: own self determination. So there are three pathways that Kashmi

181
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,360
Speaker 2: could go to Pakistan. Kashmi could go to India, or

182
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,479
Speaker 2: Kashmir could become independent.

183
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,199
Speaker 3: For the big players in the region, and.

184
00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,920
Speaker 2: We should also remember that China holds ten percent of

185
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,560
Speaker 2: Kashmir territory, the idea of Kashmir becoming independent will not

186
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,920
Speaker 2: satisfy or help anybody from those big actors.

187
00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,920
Speaker 3: But certainly if you live in Kashmir, you.

188
00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 2: Live in very difficult circumstances, so your kind of day

189
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 2: to day life will be heavily militarized. If you live

190
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 2: in Kashmir for say the last two to three years,

191
00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:11,480
Speaker 2: the vast majority of that time you'll have had no

192
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,240
Speaker 2: internet because the Internet will have been switched off because

193
00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,719
Speaker 2: it's considered from the Indian side to be too much

194
00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 2: of the security threat and also quite high degrees of poverty.

195
00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,240
Speaker 2: So one interesting thing about this attack was that it

196
00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 2: was directly against tourists, and maybe the militants chose to

197
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 2: do that as a way to break down the kind

198
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,559
Speaker 2: of emergent tourist industry within that region. And again, these

199
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,199
Speaker 2: are all things that are directly affecting people on the ground.

200
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,480
Speaker 2: So in terms of that Kashmir voice, I think it's lost.

201
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,840
Speaker 2: It could definitely be stronger. But again this maybe explains

202
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:51,200
Speaker 2: why the border within Kashmir between India and Pakistan hasn't

203
00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 2: really changed much since nineteen forty seven, because the status

204
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,160
Speaker 2: quo is the kind of it's kind of the way

205
00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:58,320
Speaker 2: to muddle through the mess.

206
00:11:58,320 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 5: I think in different ways.

207
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,920
Speaker 1: India is one of the fastest growing populations on the

208
00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 1: planet and one of the biggest populations in general, and

209
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,240
Speaker 1: it does sort of seem like lately the country is

210
00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 1: trying to rise out of being seen as this sort

211
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,800
Speaker 1: of third world subcontinent. They're eyeing up trade deals with

212
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 1: countries like New Zealand and I believe they're even eyeing

213
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 1: up a bid for the Olympics in twenty thirty six.

214
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 1: So would go against Prime Minister Modi's attempts to sell

215
00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,319
Speaker 1: the country on the world stage to get embroiled in

216
00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:29,240
Speaker 1: a conflict like this.

217
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it definitely seems paradoxical, doesn't it. It does

218
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 2: seem as though engaging this conflict, or at least escalating

219
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:40,960
Speaker 2: and pushing it further, would be detrimental to India's self image.

220
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,720
Speaker 2: I think the biggest thing to think about, though, is

221
00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,080
Speaker 2: that I would argue that India is now becoming a

222
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,679
Speaker 2: great power in the sense that it's highly influential on

223
00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:54,559
Speaker 2: the global stage. It's huge economy, huge population, as you mentioned,

224
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 2: so huge emergent middle class, lots of military spending that

225
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,120
Speaker 2: this is quite unknown in the West, but it's important,

226
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,080
Speaker 2: more weapons than any other country in the last sixty

227
00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:09,240
Speaker 2: years in terms of overall spending. And if we think

228
00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,480
Speaker 2: about what's happening in the global system as a whole.

229
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,200
Speaker 2: There are lots of pressures against a rise in China

230
00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,719
Speaker 2: and a need for countries to counterbalance against China, and

231
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,240
Speaker 2: India's key to all of that. So in many ways,

232
00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:28,000
Speaker 2: because India has become more essentially necessary in global politics,

233
00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 2: in a sense, it protects it from direct criticism. So

234
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,400
Speaker 2: if you're going to India, for example, this could be

235
00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,680
Speaker 2: New Zealand, but the kind of big ones would be

236
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,600
Speaker 2: saying the UK and the US. I think Indian leaders

237
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,360
Speaker 2: will say, you know, if you want a trade deal,

238
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 2: that's great, and we really want one, but make sure

239
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,640
Speaker 2: you don't criticize us when it comes to Kashmir. We

240
00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 2: see this as an internal issue. So I think that

241
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 2: positional factor actually plays into places to India's advantage. And

242
00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,320
Speaker 2: then beyond that, you could also say that it appears

243
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:03,680
Speaker 2: that the UA is kind of decoupling or pulling itself

244
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 2: out of global affairs. And if you are an ally

245
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 2: over the United States, such as say Israel, then in

246
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,800
Speaker 2: many ways there are fewer controls in terms of how

247
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 2: you conduct your policy, and certainly there are fewer leaders

248
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 2: in place who are able to maybe pull back conflicts

249
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 2: or pullback escalation, and I think that's also partly something

250
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 2: to do with India's calculation. And then one final facts

251
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 2: would be and that this is also quite under reported

252
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 2: that Pakistan itself are combating militants in Pakistan and Balukistan

253
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 2: who want to separate from the country. They're also combating

254
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 2: the Taliban on their border with Afghanistan. So many senses,

255
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 2: the attempt to maybe regain Kashmir, or at least rebalance

256
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 2: the relationship is a prime opportunity for India at the moment.

257
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:02,960
Speaker 6: From as the Moodia and I sat down today and

258
00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 6: we charted out the future of our two countries relationship,

259
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,840
Speaker 6: a future that builds from where we have been and

260
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 6: one that is wholly more ambitious about what we will

261
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 6: do together in the future. We agreed to our defense

262
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,400
Speaker 6: forces building greater strategic trust with one another while deploying

263
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,479
Speaker 6: together and training together more. We want our scientists collaborating

264
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 6: on global challenges like climate change and on commercial opportunities

265
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 6: like space. We are supporting our businesses to improve airlinks

266
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:33,560
Speaker 6: and build primary sector cooperation. We will facilitate students and

267
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 6: young professionals and tourists to move between our two countries,

268
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 6: and we've instructed our trade negotiators to get on and

269
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 6: negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement between our two great nations.

270
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 1: Just on New Zealand specifically, we're pursuing quite close ties

271
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 1: with India at the moment. It seems to really be

272
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 1: Christopher Luckson's big sort of trade bet. Do you think

273
00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,200
Speaker 1: what sort of position does that leave us in if

274
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 1: they were to engage in war.

275
00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,520
Speaker 2: So I think fundamentally with Kashmir, the Indian position has

276
00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:10,040
Speaker 2: always been this is an internal issue. They also strongly

277
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 2: believe in kind of anti interventionist values or norms, so

278
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 2: that stems from their colonial period. So there have been

279
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 2: lots of powers in the past who've tried to interfere

280
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 2: or negotiate or mediate about Kashmir, and they nearly every

281
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 2: single time they get told, this isn't to do with you.

282
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 5: This is our kind of issue.

283
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 2: Within that context, even though it might seem quite uncomfortable.

284
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,040
Speaker 2: I do think it's possible to separate different dimensions of

285
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 2: foreign policies. So it's very possible to have lots of

286
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 2: great trade with India. India does this with China, for example,

287
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,920
Speaker 2: but when it comes to its territorial dispute or a

288
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 2: dispute in another area of international politics, then that dispute

289
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 2: will kind of take place. So I think from a

290
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 2: New Zealand point of view, you can emphasize the trade.

291
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,520
Speaker 2: That's definitely possible. I think when it starts to move

292
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:07,600
Speaker 2: into politics, human rights, treatment of minorities, those sensitivities, the

293
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,119
Speaker 2: Indians will definitely push them back and remove them from negotiation.

294
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 2: In terms of a conflict. I don't think India will

295
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 2: be looking to anybody in terms of say international support

296
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 2: or justification. So in many senses that would leave possibilities

297
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 2: for New Zealand in terms of probably what most other

298
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 2: countries are doing at the moment, asking for restraint, pointing

299
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:34,679
Speaker 2: out the regional ramifications, pointing out the ramifications in terms

300
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 2: potentially in terms of trade and how that might affect

301
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 2: other countries.

302
00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:40,720
Speaker 5: And one final.

303
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 2: Point would be maybe New Zealand has a benefit in

304
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,160
Speaker 2: being quite a small country, so certainly a trade deal

305
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,680
Speaker 2: is beneficial for everybody involved, but in many ways it's

306
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 2: probably more beneficial for New Zealand than it is for

307
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,200
Speaker 2: India and the overall scheme of things.

308
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,320
Speaker 1: So just finally, Chris how likely do you think it

309
00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 1: is that there will be peace in the short and

310
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 1: long term in Kashmia.

311
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 2: My feeling right now is is I don't think that

312
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 2: this is finished, So I think I think it's very

313
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: easy for these tensions to kind of blow up again.

314
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:15,239
Speaker 2: It's intriguing to think if the leaders do me and

315
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 2: this has happened in the aftermath of every other kind

316
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 2: of conflagration or conflict, to see what they're able to negotiate.

317
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,640
Speaker 2: Because India is definitely much stronger than it ever has

318
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 2: been relative to Pakistan in terms of the exceptionally long term,

319
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 2: it's very difficult to determine that, primarily because parties such

320
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 2: as the BJP, the ruling party at the moment in India,

321
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:44,640
Speaker 2: are super Hindu nationalists. It is one of their aims

322
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 2: to regain Kashmir, and it is possible to think of

323
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 2: scenarios in the future where they would try to militarily

324
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 2: gain Kashmir. And again, if this was just the kind

325
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 2: of testing to see how Pakistan would react, that's also

326
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 2: possible overall. Though on balance, so if we look at

327
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 2: the last seventy five years, it's status quo.

328
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 5: Which has kind of been there.

329
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 2: So the current split between territory and Kashmir has stayed

330
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 2: where it is. There are periodic issues, periodic tensions, periodic

331
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 2: flare ups, and then with a broader hope for all

332
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 2: of us that that doesn't escalate very quickly into a

333
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 2: nuclear confrontation.

334
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Chris.

335
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 5: Pleasure, Thanks for having me.

336
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 1: We should note that the Pakistani government has denied any

337
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,199
Speaker 1: involvement in the Peholgam attack and disputes India's claims that

338
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 1: Pakistani linked groups were responsible for the attack. So that's

339
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: it for this episode of the Front Page. You can

340
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at

341
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: inzherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced

342
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: by Ethan Sills. I'm Richard Martin. Subscribe to the Front

343
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 1: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

344
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.

345
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 5: MHM.