Speaker 1: Kyoda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Tensions have
Speaker 2: emerged in recent weeks between New Zealand and several Pacific
Speaker 2: island nations. Cook Island's Prime Minister Mark Brown has been
Speaker 2: accused of not properly consulting New Zealand of the country's
Speaker 2: upcoming China deal, which is expected to be penned in
Speaker 2: Beijing this week. Meanwhile, enzaid to Kiribas is under review,
Speaker 2: and Samoa has sought help from China in the aftermath
Speaker 2: of the Monamanui sinking last year. This all comes as
Speaker 2: the Trump administration has frozen aid to developing nations, which
Speaker 2: some experts fear could push them closer to China. Today
Speaker 2: on the Front Page, University of Auckland retired international relations
Speaker 2: professor Stephen Hoadley is with us to discuss China's interest
Speaker 2: in the Pacific, the impact of that frozen aid, and
Speaker 2: what it means for New Zealand's relationship with some of
Speaker 2: our closest neighbors. First off, Stephen, we've had a good
Speaker 2: relationship with our Pacific neighbors for decades. Now, Hey, what
Speaker 2: do you think has changed?
Speaker 3: What has changed is China, nationalism, economic necessity. That's basically
Speaker 3: the three changes. They interlink in the sense that Pacific
Speaker 3: Islands have always been poor. They've depended on aid on
Speaker 3: remittances from Pacific Islanders who have come to New Zealand
Speaker 3: and Australia Hawaii, worked hard, made money, send it back home.
Speaker 3: But the leaders of the various Pacific Island countries are
Speaker 3: faced with rising expectations. They've got television. They see how
Speaker 3: opulent our lifestyle is in New Zealand and other western countries,
Speaker 3: and the Pacific Island population want more of it, and
Speaker 3: they demand that. They're political leaders somehow organize jobs, aid remittances,
Speaker 3: grants and other sources of income so they can be
Speaker 3: fully employed. Otherwise they'll immigrant, They'll come to New Zealand
Speaker 3: and Australia Hawaii to work. That causes a brain drain.
Speaker 3: It also means that necessary people in the islands are
Speaker 3: not doing the work that they should, and that brings
Speaker 3: China into the picture. China has had a relationship with
Speaker 3: the Pacific Islands going way back to the nineteen sixties.
Speaker 3: New Zealand was first in along with Australia but China
Speaker 3: wasn't far behind with economic aid projects ranging from government
Speaker 3: buildings to roads, to ports, to sports facilities, big sports complexes,
Speaker 3: communications and so forth. So the Chinese have right throughout
Speaker 3: the Pacific area been benefactors economic benefactors. They've also raised debt.
Speaker 3: Chinese aid is not grant its debt, its loans, and
Speaker 3: this incurs debt. So Tonga, for example, is said to
Speaker 3: ohe maybe thirty percent of its GDP to China. Now
Speaker 3: it is in no position to ever repay that, so
Speaker 3: it is a worry and it makes Tonga more dependent
Speaker 3: on Chinese wishes. So broadly, that's the picture in the
Speaker 3: Pacific Islands generally, that economic necessity, rising expectations, rising sense
Speaker 3: of nationalist identity in each of the island countries, encouraged
Speaker 3: buy what's happening in Europe and the United States, and
Speaker 3: the ready access to China, which is a willing partner,
Speaker 3: willing to lend infrastructure projects that look pretty good at
Speaker 3: first glance, and at least they do produce facilities that
Speaker 3: the Pacific Islands can use. We can talk maybe more
Speaker 3: about what's wrong with many of those projects in the
Speaker 3: eyes of the Pacific leaders. Very few of them, with
Speaker 3: one exception, the Prime Minister of Samoa. Very few of
Speaker 3: them say no. They all say yes. I hope it'll
Speaker 3: come right in the long run.
Speaker 4: The island nation of Samoa is treading more cautiously as
Speaker 4: China and the US looked a secure power in the
Speaker 4: Pacific waters. Its newest prime minister Fiami in Naomi and
Speaker 4: Mataafa reversed to promise the old government made to build
Speaker 4: a new port on China's dime, to the tune of
Speaker 4: one hundred million dollars. Mataafa called the project excessive for
Speaker 4: a nation already heavily indebted to Beijing. She indicated she
Speaker 4: would only approve investments that had clear benefits for Samoa.
Speaker 4: It seems to be a renewed interest in the Pacific,
Speaker 4: which play good thing, but.
Speaker 5: Not necessarily.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 2: China has grown its influence in the region for a
Speaker 2: while now. You mentioned that why are we always so
Speaker 2: surprised though when we hear about them assisting an aid
Speaker 2: or penning visa deals and the like.
Speaker 3: Well, we're not surprised. What we concern with is the
Speaker 3: amount of dependency that the island countries will have on China.
Speaker 3: The Pacific islands are some of the smallest by population.
Speaker 3: When China has ten thousand diplomats, Pacific Islands may have
Speaker 3: ten or twenty diplomats to negotiate details of these various
Speaker 3: aid projects. So the concern of New Zealand and certainly
Speaker 3: more so Australia, many of Australian analysts are quite alarmed
Speaker 3: about this is the amount of indebtedness. And the problem
Speaker 3: doesn't stop with just the debt ode to China, but
Speaker 3: the facilities that China installs often are not quite suitable
Speaker 3: to the tropical weather, the small scale and the lack
Speaker 3: of maintenance facilities and financial backup that the Pacific Islands have.
Speaker 3: These large buildings require air conditioning, and the air conditioning
Speaker 3: requires electricians and electricity, and often they malfunction, and the
Speaker 3: Chinese electrical standards are different to ours, and so it's
Speaker 3: very difficult to keep these various projects productive and it's
Speaker 3: expensive relative to their very small budgets, and they become
Speaker 3: what we call white elephants, that is, unproductive projects that
Speaker 3: they are almost more trouble than their worth. At least.
Speaker 3: This is the critique that some analysts in New Zealand
Speaker 3: and Australia have leveled against the Chinese projects. But this
Speaker 3: has been going on for a long time. The Chinese
Speaker 3: are improving. They have reorganized their aid projects and their
Speaker 3: aid program. They are consulting more freely with their Pacific partners,
Speaker 3: trying to scale their projects down. In some cases, they're
Speaker 3: actually working with New Zealand in Cook Islands a water
Speaker 3: reticulation project, and we think that's a very good side.
Speaker 3: If the Chinese can look learn from us, those of
Speaker 3: us who have experience in the Pacific Islands, then they
Speaker 3: can scale down and make their projects more effective, and
Speaker 3: we would actually welcome that. We would welcome Chinese assistance
Speaker 3: to the Pacific Islands as we would welcome Japanese assistance,
Speaker 3: French assistance, American assistance. As long as it is economically viable,
Speaker 3: it doesn't create environmental disasters, doesn't create huge debt and
Speaker 3: a huge maintenance bill. So there are some conditions and corruption.
Speaker 3: We want to curb corruption, which is also a problem
Speaker 3: under the table payments for approvals that have not gone
Speaker 3: through the Ministry of Finance or parliamentary process. So we
Speaker 3: do have some concerns. And New Zealand, by and large
Speaker 3: its aid program conforms with high quality standards. We think
Speaker 3: the Chinese aid programs don't quite meet those standards and
Speaker 3: that does cause us some concern.
Speaker 2: What do you make of Foreign Minister Winston Peters comments
Speaker 2: around our relationship with the Pacific Nations recently? I'm thinking
Speaker 2: about the latest back and forth over the canceled Curebus meeting,
Speaker 2: for example, and the Cook Islands. Prime Minister Marke Brown
Speaker 2: doesn't seem at all too happy with New Zealand's approach
Speaker 2: over his China deal this week.
Speaker 3: Now, this is the crux of the matter. China has
Speaker 3: had an economic relationship and a diplomatic relationship with the
Speaker 3: Pacific Islands for many years. It's the military aspect that
Speaker 3: is the new element. That China's navy is the largest
Speaker 3: in the world. That China is exploring blue water deployments.
Speaker 3: It's got satellite intelligence ships plying the oceans of the
Speaker 3: world as submarines, and it wants basis. It wants support facilities,
Speaker 3: what we call them bases, support facilities with fuel, ammunition,
Speaker 3: rest and recreation facilities, spare parts the normal sorts of
Speaker 3: things that every navy would like to have distant from
Speaker 3: their homeland. Now the Chinese are certainly more ambitious. They
Speaker 3: have their road and belt scheme right throughout Southeast Asia,
Speaker 3: the South Asia, even extending to Africa and even some
Speaker 3: countries in Europe, which is concerning to the United States
Speaker 3: because we feel some of these built and road projects,
Speaker 3: particularly port facilities, we feel that they could easily be
Speaker 3: converted into navy support facilities. There is, they could become
Speaker 3: many bases, many military bases for the Chinese People's Liberation
Speaker 3: Army Navy. Now this hasn't yet happened in the Pacific Islands,
Speaker 3: but we feel that China is on the verge in
Speaker 3: Solomon Islands, in Curebus maybe now in Cook Islands. Because
Speaker 3: the agreements that China has signed with Solomon Islands also
Speaker 3: are not public their secret Australian journalists have been able
Speaker 3: to find the texts of the agreement and it does
Speaker 3: have clauses in it whereby the government of Solomon Islands
Speaker 3: can call upon China police and China military to support
Speaker 3: that government, no matter whether it's democratic or not, whether
Speaker 3: it's legitimate or not, but that government can call on
Speaker 3: Chinese armed muscle to support that government. Now, this is
Speaker 3: what is concerning about the Cook Islands agreement. We don't
Speaker 3: know what's in it. If it's just infrastructure projects, okay,
Speaker 3: the normal concerns about financial viability, debt and maintenance sustainability
Speaker 3: over a period of time. But if it contains, for example,
Speaker 3: a agreement to allow China to fish extensively in Cook
Speaker 3: Island's wide economic zone oceanic zone, and also to maintain
Speaker 3: fishery support facilities in one of the Cook Island's outer islands.
Speaker 3: Cook Island says fifteen, a group of fifteen different islands.
Speaker 3: We would be greatly concerned about that because we would
Speaker 3: feel that the Chinese fishing fleet is highly militarized, it's
Speaker 3: highly subsidized, it's under the maritime militia of China. Whatever
Speaker 3: the fishing fleet does, we feel that the Chinese Coastguard
Speaker 3: and the Chinese Navy will not be far behind. And
Speaker 3: this is where the real concern comes. Now. Winston Peters
Speaker 3: hasn't enunciated that we don't want to inflame the situation.
Speaker 3: China is still our best trade partner. We don't want
Speaker 3: to irritate China unnecessarily. But if you're an Australian journalist,
Speaker 3: you're not under those constraints. Australian geopolitical analysts have been
Speaker 3: very forthright in saying, look, this is the thin edge
Speaker 3: of the wedge. These fishery support facilities are on the
Speaker 3: track to militarization. And this brings the Chinese military into
Speaker 3: what previously has been a democratic, Christian, peaceful region of
Speaker 3: the world, that is the Oceanic Pacific, oceanic region of
Speaker 3: the world. And this is the geopolitical shift or tilt
Speaker 3: if you wish, or change of balance if you wish,
Speaker 3: against the United States, Japan, France, Australia, New Zealand that
Speaker 3: have managed specific affairs for the last half century on
Speaker 3: the one hand, and the rising China on the other,
Speaker 3: challenging this management regime and claiming equal status in the
Speaker 3: Pacific Islands. All right, we grant China equal status in diplomacy,
Speaker 3: in economic aid, in commerce, legitimate commerce. We have no
Speaker 3: problems with that, with some misgivings. But it's the military
Speaker 3: expansion that these secretive, comprehensive strategic agreements seem to hint
Speaker 3: at that we take exception too.
Speaker 2: Clearly.
Speaker 5: Winston Peters feels that the Cook Islands has breached its
Speaker 5: constitutional relationship and agreement with New Zealand by not disclosing,
Speaker 5: failing to disclose what is in these agreements he's about
Speaker 5: to sign in Beijing now. I took to Prime Minister
Speaker 5: Mirke Brown last week and he said that they would
Speaker 5: reveal everything once these agreements were signed. It's a bit late,
Speaker 5: and clearly he's put New Zealand into this category despite
Speaker 5: the fact that the Cooklands has a constitutional arrangement with
Speaker 5: New Zealand.
Speaker 2: When it comes to those agreements and the Pacific neighbors
Speaker 2: meeting with China and allowing more Chinese collaboration in their
Speaker 2: part of the world, have we done enough to still
Speaker 2: be considered, I guess, their best friend? Or is it
Speaker 2: a case of kind of you snooze, you lose? I'm
Speaker 2: thinking about you know, Peter's ordering a review into New
Speaker 2: Zealand's overseas aid income. For example, for New Zealand, more
Speaker 2: than sixty percent of that overseas A goes to the Pacific.
Speaker 2: Have we done enough for them or have we forced
Speaker 2: their hand to look elsewhere?
Speaker 3: It does indicate the dilemma that New Zealand and Australia
Speaker 3: and all the other like minded countries that we have
Speaker 3: good partnerships with face. They want fiscal responsibility, They want
Speaker 3: to audit their aid programs. To make sure that the
Speaker 3: aid goes where it should go and not into the
Speaker 3: pockets of corrupt politicians. We might sure there's efficiency and
Speaker 3: environmental sustainability in whatever project it might be. And so
Speaker 3: from the Pacific Island point of view, this is a
Speaker 3: big nuisance. It requires a lot of people, a lot
Speaker 3: of paperwork, a lot of research, a lot of reporting,
Speaker 3: and the Chinese don't require that. See so that from
Speaker 3: the Pacific Island point of view, the Chinese offered to
Speaker 3: come in and set up a sports complex, for example,
Speaker 3: as they did for the Pacific Games in Solomon Islands,
Speaker 3: and the Chinese say, look, we'll take care of all
Speaker 3: of that. Just allocate the land and we will start
Speaker 3: and build from the ground up with minimum fuss. We
Speaker 3: won't require democratic and human rights accounting, we won't require
Speaker 3: a whole lot of audit team. We can do all
Speaker 3: of that for you. It's enormously attractive for a government
Speaker 3: that small understaff, doesn't have the kind of expertise and
Speaker 3: the kind of requirements that say New Zealand does. So
Speaker 3: it's a dilemma. So Winston Peters says, we're going to
Speaker 3: review the Caribous aid program. That's one in particular because
Speaker 3: Carabus hasn't answered the phone, hasn't talked to Winston Peters,
Speaker 3: hasn't consulted. We don't know where the aid is going
Speaker 3: and we don't want it going to the wrong places.
Speaker 3: As a consequence, New Zealand could threaten to cut off
Speaker 3: the aid. What happens then China steps in. It's a
Speaker 3: marvelous opportunity for the Chinese to say, look, New Zealand
Speaker 3: are not trustworthy. You know when they're going gets tough,
Speaker 3: they cut off your aid. We are your friends. And
Speaker 3: the Chinese then come in they replace the AID projects
Speaker 3: with their own project. Suddenly Caribos is oriented to China diplomatically,
Speaker 3: it already is. It switched this recognition from the Republic
Speaker 3: of China Taiwan to the People's Republic of China Beijing.
Speaker 3: So they're already diplomatically switched, as Solomon Islands has done
Speaker 3: as well. So the question is given that New Zealand
Speaker 3: does not have deep pockets, it does not have unlimited resources.
Speaker 3: Nikola Willis is reducing the budget for domestic services of
Speaker 3: all kinds, and New Zealand and Australia is in a
Speaker 3: similar position, not quite as dire. The United States has
Speaker 3: got Trump with Elon Musk, cutting aid and cutting different
Speaker 3: government departments back. So the Western countries are really in
Speaker 3: a poor position to balance and to offer attractive alternatives
Speaker 3: to China. So China is at the moment winning in
Speaker 3: small steps, winning in Solomon Islands, winning in Carabos, maybe
Speaker 3: winning in Cook Islands, we don't know. Maybe in Palau,
Speaker 3: which is a small country linked to the United States,
Speaker 3: much like Cook Islands is linked to New Zealand, quite
Speaker 3: close to China, and the Chinese are making a big
Speaker 3: push there. There's some some military deep water port assets
Speaker 3: there that China could find quite attractive. So the balance
Speaker 3: of influence in the Pacific region is slowly shifting. The
Speaker 3: Chinese are playing a skillful and well financed game and
Speaker 3: they are winning one by one moves in this game.
Speaker 3: And with Trump at the helm in the US pulling
Speaker 3: back from commitments, aid and support from traditional friends and allies,
Speaker 3: the Chinese are going to have the freedom to make
Speaker 3: very attractive offers to Pacific island leaders and to gain
Speaker 3: even greater influence in Australia. New Zealand, relatively small countries
Speaker 3: don't have the resources to step into the void. Maybe
Speaker 3: Japan does. We're hoping Japan will come, maybe Taiwan, maybe
Speaker 3: South Korea. We're pleased at Britain and France are upping
Speaker 3: their military presence in the Pacific region again to balance China,
Speaker 3: but it's not enough. And the Chinese have a multi
Speaker 3: proned policy diplomatic, economic, and military, and plan DestinE as
Speaker 3: well that we find it's very hard to stand against.
Speaker 3: So at the moment we have to ruefully conclude that
Speaker 3: the Chinese are moving closer and deeper into the Pacific,
Speaker 3: and we will try to match their offers with better
Speaker 3: economic aid and more consultation. If the local government, like
Speaker 3: Mark Brown's Cook Islands government, turns his back on us
Speaker 3: and it goes to Beijing, which he is doing right now,
Speaker 3: and comes back with an agreement that Beijing will have
Speaker 3: access to their economic ocean waters, their fish and resources
Speaker 3: and deep sea bed minerals, and will have shore facilities
Speaker 3: to support only the economic exploitation but maybe also some
Speaker 3: of the fisheries exploitation. There is not a great deal
Speaker 3: we can do about that. I guess you might say, well,
Speaker 3: why should we continue with the association with Cook Islands?
Speaker 3: Should New Zealand simply say no, let's discontinue and let
Speaker 3: Cook Islands be independent. Cook Islanders could not come to
Speaker 3: New Zealand and be New Zealand citizens. They would have
Speaker 3: to have their own passports and their own visas. What
Speaker 3: would happen to the twenty or thirty thousand Cook Islanders
Speaker 3: who live in Auckland and surrounding areas doing useful work here?
Speaker 3: Would they suddenly become aliens? And would we have to
Speaker 3: do a Donald Trump consider treating them as aliens which
Speaker 3: might include deportation. Well, I certainly hope what Mark Brown
Speaker 3: is doing. And Winston Peters who has long enmity to
Speaker 3: the Cook Islands going back to the wineback books scandal
Speaker 3: and the banking dodgy banking that Cook Islands engaged in
Speaker 3: with money laundering and other dodgy activities back in the
Speaker 3: nineteen eighties and nineties. So Winston Peters has a long
Speaker 3: history of concern that Cook Islands is sailing too close
Speaker 3: to the legal wind and Winston, as you know, forthright
Speaker 3: and going to call them out on it. Well, if
Speaker 3: that relationship breaks down, is there a future for the
Speaker 3: Cook Islands as a freely associated state with New Zealand?
Speaker 3: Or are we looking at a divorce with Cook Islands
Speaker 3: becoming fully independent. It's already recognized by fifty states as
Speaker 3: an independent government. It has diplomatic relations with many many countries,
Speaker 3: including the US and Australia and Canada and New Zealand.
Speaker 3: Would it be impossible to conceive of not just a dispute,
Speaker 3: a domestic dispute, which it is now because New Zidan
Speaker 3: and Cook Islands are linked, but a become a separation
Speaker 3: and then maybe down the track a divorce. So these
Speaker 3: are some of the things that we want to consider.
Speaker 1: We have a very good relationship with the Cook Islands
Speaker 1: and also it's people, but you know, we have points
Speaker 1: of difference. Do we have an obligation under our constitutional
Speaker 1: arrangement to make sure around issues of defense and security
Speaker 1: that we're very transparent about all of that. We need
Speaker 1: to wait and see what has actually been agreed or
Speaker 1: not agreed, and then we'll make our judgments.
Speaker 5: Okay, will we completely drop the gold here? We had
Speaker 5: no idea what was going on when Ston Peter still
Speaker 5: has no idea what was going on?
Speaker 2: How are the loops New Zealand and ms of what the.
Speaker 5: Cook Islands is even up to us?
Speaker 1: Well, that's why under questioning, you've actually seen him say
Speaker 1: that we want to expect transparency and he's calling that
Speaker 1: out and that's what we're saying, and that's why you
Speaker 1: do have a dispute between the two countries.
Speaker 2: How should our government proceed here when it comes to
Speaker 2: the Pacific or would really anything just be too little, too.
Speaker 3: Late at the moment? Diplomacy first is always, and so
Speaker 3: Winston Peters is doing. He's gone to the media, he
Speaker 3: has made it quite public. He's unhappy with Mark Brown.
Speaker 3: He's demanded that Mark Brown consult, which is an agreed
Speaker 3: arrangement between the countries with the twenty and twenty one
Speaker 3: reaffirmation of the relationship, and Mark Brown has not done so.
Speaker 3: So Winston Peters feels Mark Brown is in the wrong.
Speaker 3: Many Cook Islanders have now begun to make statements on
Speaker 3: social media saying, look, we're appalled because Mark Brown is
Speaker 3: jeopardizing our free movement in and out of New Zealand
Speaker 3: and we value that ability to work and live and
Speaker 3: visit and get medical assistance from New Zealand. So Mark
Speaker 3: Brown is not popular in his own country. Is it
Speaker 3: too late or too late? There could be a change
Speaker 3: of heart the agreement that Mark Brown signs with China
Speaker 3: could be benign. He could come to his senses, or
Speaker 3: he could be more accommodating and consult with Winston Peters
Speaker 3: and make some adjustments in a way that New Zealand
Speaker 3: would be satisfied that Cook Islands is doing the right
Speaker 3: thing for the Cook Island people and not tilting the
Speaker 3: geopolitical balance in favor of China. So there's always hope.
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, if it comes
Speaker 3: a straight fight between a straight contest between China and
Speaker 3: New Zealand in the Cook Islands, China is likely to
Speaker 3: win bigger. They have more resources, they're more unscrupulous, they're
Speaker 3: determined to press forward. They've got a global vision of
Speaker 3: equality with the United States, and we think that really
Speaker 3: translates that into Chinese leadership, not just influence, but Chinese leadership.
Speaker 3: New Zealand is certainly in no position to offer Cook
Speaker 3: Islands anything relating anything as valuable is what China can
Speaker 3: offer to the Cork Islands if China really exerts its diplomatic,
Speaker 3: economic and military will to increasing its influence in the
Speaker 3: Cook Islands.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Steven. That's it for this episode
Speaker 2: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's
Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzidherld dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin,
Speaker 2: who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe
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