1 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: Kyoda. 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Tensions have 4 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 2: emerged in recent weeks between New Zealand and several Pacific 5 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 2: island nations. Cook Island's Prime Minister Mark Brown has been 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: accused of not properly consulting New Zealand of the country's 7 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 2: upcoming China deal, which is expected to be penned in 8 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: Beijing this week. Meanwhile, enzaid to Kiribas is under review, 9 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: and Samoa has sought help from China in the aftermath 10 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: of the Monamanui sinking last year. This all comes as 11 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: the Trump administration has frozen aid to developing nations, which 12 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: some experts fear could push them closer to China. Today 13 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: on the Front Page, University of Auckland retired international relations 14 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: professor Stephen Hoadley is with us to discuss China's interest 15 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: in the Pacific, the impact of that frozen aid, and 16 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 2: what it means for New Zealand's relationship with some of 17 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 2: our closest neighbors. First off, Stephen, we've had a good 18 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 2: relationship with our Pacific neighbors for decades. Now, Hey, what 19 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 2: do you think has changed? 20 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: What has changed is China, nationalism, economic necessity. That's basically 21 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: the three changes. They interlink in the sense that Pacific 22 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 3: Islands have always been poor. They've depended on aid on 23 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 3: remittances from Pacific Islanders who have come to New Zealand 24 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 3: and Australia Hawaii, worked hard, made money, send it back home. 25 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 3: But the leaders of the various Pacific Island countries are 26 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 3: faced with rising expectations. They've got television. They see how 27 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: opulent our lifestyle is in New Zealand and other western countries, 28 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: and the Pacific Island population want more of it, and 29 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: they demand that. They're political leaders somehow organize jobs, aid remittances, 30 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: grants and other sources of income so they can be 31 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 3: fully employed. Otherwise they'll immigrant, They'll come to New Zealand 32 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 3: and Australia Hawaii to work. That causes a brain drain. 33 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 3: It also means that necessary people in the islands are 34 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 3: not doing the work that they should, and that brings 35 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 3: China into the picture. China has had a relationship with 36 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 3: the Pacific Islands going way back to the nineteen sixties. 37 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 3: New Zealand was first in along with Australia but China 38 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 3: wasn't far behind with economic aid projects ranging from government 39 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: buildings to roads, to ports, to sports facilities, big sports complexes, 40 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:53,959 Speaker 3: communications and so forth. So the Chinese have right throughout 41 00:02:54,000 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 3: the Pacific area been benefactors economic benefactors. They've also raised debt. 42 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 3: Chinese aid is not grant its debt, its loans, and 43 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 3: this incurs debt. So Tonga, for example, is said to 44 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 3: ohe maybe thirty percent of its GDP to China. Now 45 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 3: it is in no position to ever repay that, so 46 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 3: it is a worry and it makes Tonga more dependent 47 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 3: on Chinese wishes. So broadly, that's the picture in the 48 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 3: Pacific Islands generally, that economic necessity, rising expectations, rising sense 49 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 3: of nationalist identity in each of the island countries, encouraged 50 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: buy what's happening in Europe and the United States, and 51 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: the ready access to China, which is a willing partner, 52 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: willing to lend infrastructure projects that look pretty good at 53 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 3: first glance, and at least they do produce facilities that 54 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 3: the Pacific Islands can use. We can talk maybe more 55 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 3: about what's wrong with many of those projects in the 56 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 3: eyes of the Pacific leaders. Very few of them, with 57 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 3: one exception, the Prime Minister of Samoa. Very few of 58 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 3: them say no. They all say yes. I hope it'll 59 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: come right in the long run. 60 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 4: The island nation of Samoa is treading more cautiously as 61 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 4: China and the US looked a secure power in the 62 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 4: Pacific waters. Its newest prime minister Fiami in Naomi and 63 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 4: Mataafa reversed to promise the old government made to build 64 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 4: a new port on China's dime, to the tune of 65 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 4: one hundred million dollars. Mataafa called the project excessive for 66 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 4: a nation already heavily indebted to Beijing. She indicated she 67 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 4: would only approve investments that had clear benefits for Samoa. 68 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 4: It seems to be a renewed interest in the Pacific, 69 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 4: which play good thing, but. 70 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 5: Not necessarily. 71 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: So. 72 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 2: China has grown its influence in the region for a 73 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,239 Speaker 2: while now. You mentioned that why are we always so 74 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 2: surprised though when we hear about them assisting an aid 75 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: or penning visa deals and the like. 76 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 3: Well, we're not surprised. What we concern with is the 77 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 3: amount of dependency that the island countries will have on China. 78 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 3: The Pacific islands are some of the smallest by population. 79 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 3: When China has ten thousand diplomats, Pacific Islands may have 80 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 3: ten or twenty diplomats to negotiate details of these various 81 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 3: aid projects. So the concern of New Zealand and certainly 82 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 3: more so Australia, many of Australian analysts are quite alarmed 83 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 3: about this is the amount of indebtedness. And the problem 84 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: doesn't stop with just the debt ode to China, but 85 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 3: the facilities that China installs often are not quite suitable 86 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: to the tropical weather, the small scale and the lack 87 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 3: of maintenance facilities and financial backup that the Pacific Islands have. 88 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 3: These large buildings require air conditioning, and the air conditioning 89 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: requires electricians and electricity, and often they malfunction, and the 90 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 3: Chinese electrical standards are different to ours, and so it's 91 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 3: very difficult to keep these various projects productive and it's 92 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 3: expensive relative to their very small budgets, and they become 93 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 3: what we call white elephants, that is, unproductive projects that 94 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 3: they are almost more trouble than their worth. At least. 95 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 3: This is the critique that some analysts in New Zealand 96 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 3: and Australia have leveled against the Chinese projects. But this 97 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 3: has been going on for a long time. The Chinese 98 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 3: are improving. They have reorganized their aid projects and their 99 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 3: aid program. They are consulting more freely with their Pacific partners, 100 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 3: trying to scale their projects down. In some cases, they're 101 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 3: actually working with New Zealand in Cook Islands a water 102 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 3: reticulation project, and we think that's a very good side. 103 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,359 Speaker 3: If the Chinese can look learn from us, those of 104 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 3: us who have experience in the Pacific Islands, then they 105 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: can scale down and make their projects more effective, and 106 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: we would actually welcome that. We would welcome Chinese assistance 107 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: to the Pacific Islands as we would welcome Japanese assistance, 108 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 3: French assistance, American assistance. As long as it is economically viable, 109 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 3: it doesn't create environmental disasters, doesn't create huge debt and 110 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 3: a huge maintenance bill. So there are some conditions and corruption. 111 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 3: We want to curb corruption, which is also a problem 112 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 3: under the table payments for approvals that have not gone 113 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 3: through the Ministry of Finance or parliamentary process. So we 114 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 3: do have some concerns. And New Zealand, by and large 115 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 3: its aid program conforms with high quality standards. We think 116 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 3: the Chinese aid programs don't quite meet those standards and 117 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 3: that does cause us some concern. 118 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: What do you make of Foreign Minister Winston Peters comments 119 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 2: around our relationship with the Pacific Nations recently? I'm thinking 120 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: about the latest back and forth over the canceled Curebus meeting, 121 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 2: for example, and the Cook Islands. Prime Minister Marke Brown 122 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 2: doesn't seem at all too happy with New Zealand's approach 123 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 2: over his China deal this week. 124 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 3: Now, this is the crux of the matter. China has 125 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 3: had an economic relationship and a diplomatic relationship with the 126 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 3: Pacific Islands for many years. It's the military aspect that 127 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 3: is the new element. That China's navy is the largest 128 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 3: in the world. That China is exploring blue water deployments. 129 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 3: It's got satellite intelligence ships plying the oceans of the 130 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 3: world as submarines, and it wants basis. It wants support facilities, 131 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 3: what we call them bases, support facilities with fuel, ammunition, 132 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 3: rest and recreation facilities, spare parts the normal sorts of 133 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 3: things that every navy would like to have distant from 134 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 3: their homeland. Now the Chinese are certainly more ambitious. They 135 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 3: have their road and belt scheme right throughout Southeast Asia, 136 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 3: the South Asia, even extending to Africa and even some 137 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: countries in Europe, which is concerning to the United States 138 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 3: because we feel some of these built and road projects, 139 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 3: particularly port facilities, we feel that they could easily be 140 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 3: converted into navy support facilities. There is, they could become 141 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 3: many bases, many military bases for the Chinese People's Liberation 142 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 3: Army Navy. Now this hasn't yet happened in the Pacific Islands, 143 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 3: but we feel that China is on the verge in 144 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 3: Solomon Islands, in Curebus maybe now in Cook Islands. Because 145 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 3: the agreements that China has signed with Solomon Islands also 146 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 3: are not public their secret Australian journalists have been able 147 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: to find the texts of the agreement and it does 148 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 3: have clauses in it whereby the government of Solomon Islands 149 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 3: can call upon China police and China military to support 150 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 3: that government, no matter whether it's democratic or not, whether 151 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 3: it's legitimate or not, but that government can call on 152 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 3: Chinese armed muscle to support that government. Now, this is 153 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 3: what is concerning about the Cook Islands agreement. We don't 154 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 3: know what's in it. If it's just infrastructure projects, okay, 155 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 3: the normal concerns about financial viability, debt and maintenance sustainability 156 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 3: over a period of time. But if it contains, for example, 157 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 3: a agreement to allow China to fish extensively in Cook 158 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 3: Island's wide economic zone oceanic zone, and also to maintain 159 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 3: fishery support facilities in one of the Cook Island's outer islands. 160 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 3: Cook Island says fifteen, a group of fifteen different islands. 161 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 3: We would be greatly concerned about that because we would 162 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 3: feel that the Chinese fishing fleet is highly militarized, it's 163 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 3: highly subsidized, it's under the maritime militia of China. Whatever 164 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 3: the fishing fleet does, we feel that the Chinese Coastguard 165 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 3: and the Chinese Navy will not be far behind. And 166 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 3: this is where the real concern comes. Now. Winston Peters 167 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 3: hasn't enunciated that we don't want to inflame the situation. 168 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 3: China is still our best trade partner. We don't want 169 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 3: to irritate China unnecessarily. But if you're an Australian journalist, 170 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 3: you're not under those constraints. Australian geopolitical analysts have been 171 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 3: very forthright in saying, look, this is the thin edge 172 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 3: of the wedge. These fishery support facilities are on the 173 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: track to militarization. And this brings the Chinese military into 174 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 3: what previously has been a democratic, Christian, peaceful region of 175 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 3: the world, that is the Oceanic Pacific, oceanic region of 176 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 3: the world. And this is the geopolitical shift or tilt 177 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 3: if you wish, or change of balance if you wish, 178 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 3: against the United States, Japan, France, Australia, New Zealand that 179 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 3: have managed specific affairs for the last half century on 180 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 3: the one hand, and the rising China on the other, 181 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 3: challenging this management regime and claiming equal status in the 182 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 3: Pacific Islands. All right, we grant China equal status in diplomacy, 183 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 3: in economic aid, in commerce, legitimate commerce. We have no 184 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 3: problems with that, with some misgivings. But it's the military 185 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 3: expansion that these secretive, comprehensive strategic agreements seem to hint 186 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 3: at that we take exception too. 187 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 2: Clearly. 188 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 5: Winston Peters feels that the Cook Islands has breached its 189 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 5: constitutional relationship and agreement with New Zealand by not disclosing, 190 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 5: failing to disclose what is in these agreements he's about 191 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 5: to sign in Beijing now. I took to Prime Minister 192 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 5: Mirke Brown last week and he said that they would 193 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 5: reveal everything once these agreements were signed. It's a bit late, 194 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 5: and clearly he's put New Zealand into this category despite 195 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 5: the fact that the Cooklands has a constitutional arrangement with 196 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 5: New Zealand. 197 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 2: When it comes to those agreements and the Pacific neighbors 198 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 2: meeting with China and allowing more Chinese collaboration in their 199 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: part of the world, have we done enough to still 200 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 2: be considered, I guess, their best friend? Or is it 201 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 2: a case of kind of you snooze, you lose? I'm 202 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 2: thinking about you know, Peter's ordering a review into New 203 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 2: Zealand's overseas aid income. For example, for New Zealand, more 204 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 2: than sixty percent of that overseas A goes to the Pacific. 205 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 2: Have we done enough for them or have we forced 206 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:09,359 Speaker 2: their hand to look elsewhere? 207 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: It does indicate the dilemma that New Zealand and Australia 208 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 3: and all the other like minded countries that we have 209 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 3: good partnerships with face. They want fiscal responsibility, They want 210 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 3: to audit their aid programs. To make sure that the 211 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 3: aid goes where it should go and not into the 212 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 3: pockets of corrupt politicians. We might sure there's efficiency and 213 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 3: environmental sustainability in whatever project it might be. And so 214 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: from the Pacific Island point of view, this is a 215 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 3: big nuisance. It requires a lot of people, a lot 216 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 3: of paperwork, a lot of research, a lot of reporting, 217 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 3: and the Chinese don't require that. See so that from 218 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 3: the Pacific Island point of view, the Chinese offered to 219 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 3: come in and set up a sports complex, for example, 220 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 3: as they did for the Pacific Games in Solomon Islands, 221 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 3: and the Chinese say, look, we'll take care of all 222 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 3: of that. Just allocate the land and we will start 223 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 3: and build from the ground up with minimum fuss. We 224 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 3: won't require democratic and human rights accounting, we won't require 225 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 3: a whole lot of audit team. We can do all 226 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 3: of that for you. It's enormously attractive for a government 227 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 3: that small understaff, doesn't have the kind of expertise and 228 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 3: the kind of requirements that say New Zealand does. So 229 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 3: it's a dilemma. So Winston Peters says, we're going to 230 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 3: review the Caribous aid program. That's one in particular because 231 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 3: Carabus hasn't answered the phone, hasn't talked to Winston Peters, 232 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 3: hasn't consulted. We don't know where the aid is going 233 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 3: and we don't want it going to the wrong places. 234 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: As a consequence, New Zealand could threaten to cut off 235 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 3: the aid. What happens then China steps in. It's a 236 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: marvelous opportunity for the Chinese to say, look, New Zealand 237 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 3: are not trustworthy. You know when they're going gets tough, 238 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: they cut off your aid. We are your friends. And 239 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 3: the Chinese then come in they replace the AID projects 240 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 3: with their own project. Suddenly Caribos is oriented to China diplomatically, 241 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 3: it already is. It switched this recognition from the Republic 242 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: of China Taiwan to the People's Republic of China Beijing. 243 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 3: So they're already diplomatically switched, as Solomon Islands has done 244 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 3: as well. So the question is given that New Zealand 245 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 3: does not have deep pockets, it does not have unlimited resources. 246 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 3: Nikola Willis is reducing the budget for domestic services of 247 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 3: all kinds, and New Zealand and Australia is in a 248 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 3: similar position, not quite as dire. The United States has 249 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 3: got Trump with Elon Musk, cutting aid and cutting different 250 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 3: government departments back. So the Western countries are really in 251 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 3: a poor position to balance and to offer attractive alternatives 252 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 3: to China. So China is at the moment winning in 253 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 3: small steps, winning in Solomon Islands, winning in Carabos, maybe 254 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 3: winning in Cook Islands, we don't know. Maybe in Palau, 255 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 3: which is a small country linked to the United States, 256 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 3: much like Cook Islands is linked to New Zealand, quite 257 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 3: close to China, and the Chinese are making a big 258 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 3: push there. There's some some military deep water port assets 259 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 3: there that China could find quite attractive. So the balance 260 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 3: of influence in the Pacific region is slowly shifting. The 261 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 3: Chinese are playing a skillful and well financed game and 262 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 3: they are winning one by one moves in this game. 263 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 3: And with Trump at the helm in the US pulling 264 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 3: back from commitments, aid and support from traditional friends and allies, 265 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 3: the Chinese are going to have the freedom to make 266 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 3: very attractive offers to Pacific island leaders and to gain 267 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 3: even greater influence in Australia. New Zealand, relatively small countries 268 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 3: don't have the resources to step into the void. Maybe 269 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 3: Japan does. We're hoping Japan will come, maybe Taiwan, maybe 270 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 3: South Korea. We're pleased at Britain and France are upping 271 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 3: their military presence in the Pacific region again to balance China, 272 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 3: but it's not enough. And the Chinese have a multi 273 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 3: proned policy diplomatic, economic, and military, and plan DestinE as 274 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 3: well that we find it's very hard to stand against. 275 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 3: So at the moment we have to ruefully conclude that 276 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 3: the Chinese are moving closer and deeper into the Pacific, 277 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 3: and we will try to match their offers with better 278 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 3: economic aid and more consultation. If the local government, like 279 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 3: Mark Brown's Cook Islands government, turns his back on us 280 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 3: and it goes to Beijing, which he is doing right now, 281 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 3: and comes back with an agreement that Beijing will have 282 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 3: access to their economic ocean waters, their fish and resources 283 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 3: and deep sea bed minerals, and will have shore facilities 284 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 3: to support only the economic exploitation but maybe also some 285 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 3: of the fisheries exploitation. There is not a great deal 286 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 3: we can do about that. I guess you might say, well, 287 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 3: why should we continue with the association with Cook Islands? 288 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 3: Should New Zealand simply say no, let's discontinue and let 289 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 3: Cook Islands be independent. Cook Islanders could not come to 290 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 3: New Zealand and be New Zealand citizens. They would have 291 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 3: to have their own passports and their own visas. What 292 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 3: would happen to the twenty or thirty thousand Cook Islanders 293 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 3: who live in Auckland and surrounding areas doing useful work here? 294 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,159 Speaker 3: Would they suddenly become aliens? And would we have to 295 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 3: do a Donald Trump consider treating them as aliens which 296 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 3: might include deportation. Well, I certainly hope what Mark Brown 297 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 3: is doing. And Winston Peters who has long enmity to 298 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 3: the Cook Islands going back to the wineback books scandal 299 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 3: and the banking dodgy banking that Cook Islands engaged in 300 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 3: with money laundering and other dodgy activities back in the 301 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 3: nineteen eighties and nineties. So Winston Peters has a long 302 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 3: history of concern that Cook Islands is sailing too close 303 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 3: to the legal wind and Winston, as you know, forthright 304 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 3: and going to call them out on it. Well, if 305 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 3: that relationship breaks down, is there a future for the 306 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 3: Cook Islands as a freely associated state with New Zealand? 307 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 3: Or are we looking at a divorce with Cook Islands 308 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 3: becoming fully independent. It's already recognized by fifty states as 309 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 3: an independent government. It has diplomatic relations with many many countries, 310 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 3: including the US and Australia and Canada and New Zealand. 311 00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 3: Would it be impossible to conceive of not just a dispute, 312 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 3: a domestic dispute, which it is now because New Zidan 313 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 3: and Cook Islands are linked, but a become a separation 314 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 3: and then maybe down the track a divorce. So these 315 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 3: are some of the things that we want to consider. 316 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 1: We have a very good relationship with the Cook Islands 317 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: and also it's people, but you know, we have points 318 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: of difference. Do we have an obligation under our constitutional 319 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: arrangement to make sure around issues of defense and security 320 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: that we're very transparent about all of that. We need 321 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 1: to wait and see what has actually been agreed or 322 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: not agreed, and then we'll make our judgments. 323 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 5: Okay, will we completely drop the gold here? We had 324 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 5: no idea what was going on when Ston Peter still 325 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 5: has no idea what was going on? 326 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 2: How are the loops New Zealand and ms of what the. 327 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 5: Cook Islands is even up to us? 328 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: Well, that's why under questioning, you've actually seen him say 329 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: that we want to expect transparency and he's calling that 330 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 1: out and that's what we're saying, and that's why you 331 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,360 Speaker 1: do have a dispute between the two countries. 332 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 2: How should our government proceed here when it comes to 333 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 2: the Pacific or would really anything just be too little, too. 334 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 3: Late at the moment? Diplomacy first is always, and so 335 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 3: Winston Peters is doing. He's gone to the media, he 336 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: has made it quite public. He's unhappy with Mark Brown. 337 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 3: He's demanded that Mark Brown consult, which is an agreed 338 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 3: arrangement between the countries with the twenty and twenty one 339 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 3: reaffirmation of the relationship, and Mark Brown has not done so. 340 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 3: So Winston Peters feels Mark Brown is in the wrong. 341 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 3: Many Cook Islanders have now begun to make statements on 342 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 3: social media saying, look, we're appalled because Mark Brown is 343 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 3: jeopardizing our free movement in and out of New Zealand 344 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,959 Speaker 3: and we value that ability to work and live and 345 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 3: visit and get medical assistance from New Zealand. So Mark 346 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 3: Brown is not popular in his own country. Is it 347 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 3: too late or too late? There could be a change 348 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 3: of heart the agreement that Mark Brown signs with China 349 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 3: could be benign. He could come to his senses, or 350 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 3: he could be more accommodating and consult with Winston Peters 351 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 3: and make some adjustments in a way that New Zealand 352 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 3: would be satisfied that Cook Islands is doing the right 353 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 3: thing for the Cook Island people and not tilting the 354 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 3: geopolitical balance in favor of China. So there's always hope. 355 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, if it comes 356 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 3: a straight fight between a straight contest between China and 357 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 3: New Zealand in the Cook Islands, China is likely to 358 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 3: win bigger. They have more resources, they're more unscrupulous, they're 359 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 3: determined to press forward. They've got a global vision of 360 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 3: equality with the United States, and we think that really 361 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: translates that into Chinese leadership, not just influence, but Chinese leadership. 362 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 3: New Zealand is certainly in no position to offer Cook 363 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 3: Islands anything relating anything as valuable is what China can 364 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 3: offer to the Cork Islands if China really exerts its diplomatic, 365 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:12,199 Speaker 3: economic and military will to increasing its influence in the 366 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 3: Cook Islands. 367 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Steven. That's it for this episode 368 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's 369 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzidherld dot co dot nz. 370 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, 371 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 2: who is also a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe 372 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 2: to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get 373 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind 374 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 2: the headlines.