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Speaker 1: Morning to you, Morning to you, Mike. Now, consumer confidence

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Speaker 1: here didn't look too good. No, it's pretty muted. Really.

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Speaker 1: This is the A and Z Roy Morgan consumer Confidence

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Speaker 1: and next that was down four points to ninety three

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Speaker 1: point two in March. That declined across nearly all components,

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Speaker 1: so the report was actually told a bit of a slog.

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Speaker 1: You've got a net sixteen percent of households disagree that's

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Speaker 1: a good time to buy a major household item, and

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Speaker 1: that's pretty good in the indicative retail sentiment. But interesting

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Speaker 1: it went up for people with mortgages, so that's I

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Speaker 1: guess about people coming off their lower rates. Perceptions of

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Speaker 1: confidentcial situations that fell as well, but a net sixteen

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Speaker 1: percent expect to be better off for this time next year,

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Speaker 1: so it was a positive thing perceptions going on the

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Speaker 1: economic outlook and twelve months time that eased as well,

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Speaker 1: though house price inflation and expectations that lifted slightly three

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Speaker 1: point four percent. The other interesting thing I think was

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Speaker 1: inflation expectations generally is that rose point two percentage points

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Speaker 1: to four point two percent, so that's a small increase.

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Speaker 1: It's actually the first time since June last year, and

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Speaker 1: it's been above four percent, so quite possibly suppose all

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Speaker 1: this talk around tariffs is having an impact on the

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Speaker 1: situation of who don't know how that's all going to

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Speaker 1: play it for us, but I brought you in. Consumes

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Speaker 1: seem pretty guarded, although some retails are telling a slightly

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Speaker 1: different story. So also on Friday we had helen Stein Glessons.

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Speaker 1: They are out with numbers for half a year and

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Speaker 1: they see that there's half your sales are up seven

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Speaker 1: point seven percent to two hundred and forty million, and

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Speaker 1: have to text it ticked up to twenty one million

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Speaker 1: margins of these debits I suppo. It's a bit like

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Speaker 1: seeing with other retailers and they having to discount to

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Speaker 1: get more shop through the door. But another interesting thing

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Speaker 1: was the contrast between what's happening across the Tasman and

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Speaker 1: so you look at sales for Glessons in Australia are

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Speaker 1: up sixteen percent, sales for lessons in New Zealand were

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Speaker 1: up just zero point two percent. Of a bit of divergence.

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Speaker 1: Counts do on sales are pretty flat. So just in

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Speaker 1: terms of an update, they said group sales the first

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Speaker 1: seven weeks five point four percent. It had the same

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Speaker 1: time last year, but margins remain under pressure, so they

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Speaker 1: having to discount still. And I suppose it goes all

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Speaker 1: the sales signs just seen up there, but she is

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Speaker 1: up slightly and up thirty percent over the past year. Okay,

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Speaker 1: state side two point eight, wasn't it? Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 1: It's inflation expectations are a ticking up. If we firstly

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Speaker 1: look at the University of Michigan survey, so consumer sentiment

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Speaker 1: came in at fifty seven, but you look at long

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Speaker 1: term inflation expectations that they searched him three point five

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Speaker 1: percent and February to four point one percent of March.

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Speaker 1: The interesting thinging here was you've got going up amongst Unindependents,

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Speaker 1: but also monks, Republicans, even Trump supporters are also appreciate

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Speaker 1: the inflationary implications of what he's doing. So if you

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Speaker 1: look at expectations, Mike, they might actually not been this

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Speaker 1: high since early nineteen ninety three. And in terms of yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're talking about the two point eight percent read that's

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Speaker 1: on the core personal consumption expensures pricing excepts the Fed's

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Speaker 1: preferred inflation gage. It was also our fight and that

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Speaker 1: was also higher than fourcasts up point four percent for

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Speaker 1: the month. This is just all going to stoke concerns

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Speaker 1: about you know, where inflation is go On the bright side,

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Speaker 1: consumer spinning, that's still so that accelerated point four percent

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Speaker 1: for the month, and that's helped by rising personal incomes.

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Speaker 1: Although it does seem like the US they might be betting

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Speaker 1: down the hatches a little bit. So you look at

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Speaker 1: the personal savings rate that increase to four point six percent,

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Speaker 1: and it's also the high since June last year. So

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Speaker 1: I suppose if inflation expectations picking up, inflation actual inflation

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Speaker 1: read quite high, you probably think the feed is going

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Speaker 1: to continue to adopt a wait and see approach. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And as far as American retailers concerned, what do we

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Speaker 1: read into Lulu Lemon? Is that general or a specific story? Ah,

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Speaker 1: good old Lemon. No, it's really sort of showing as

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Speaker 1: well that the yeah, the consumer is still still resilient

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Speaker 1: for now, but yeah, that the expectations are not so great.

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Speaker 1: So Lulu Lemony as they are actually down fifteen percent

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Speaker 1: on Friday, so the actual numbers weren't too bad. So

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Speaker 1: yoga pants are flying out the door. In the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: revenues up by four and a million to three point

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Speaker 1: six billion, needing come up twelve percent. But they said

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Speaker 1: that in terms of the current quarter, they expect sales

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Speaker 1: to be two point three billions. It's a massive Margins

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Speaker 1: also set to fall as well. Traffic's down, and you

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Speaker 1: look at intioningly comparable sales in the America's were flat.

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Speaker 1: They are up twenty percent internationally, so you know, Tom

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Speaker 1: Waltelvi's policies to make America greatagain actually are having the

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Speaker 1: reverse effect. Actually did a survey as well, and they

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Speaker 1: just found that consumers are spinning less due to economic

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Speaker 1: inflation concerns and that is something that appears to be

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Speaker 1: affecting a lot of retailers, and so consumers appear to

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Speaker 1: be training down. So it could be a turent few

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Speaker 1: months a year for some retailers. Okay, numbers please, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're still got the DOWT that was down one point

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Speaker 1: seven percent four one five eight three S and P

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Speaker 1: five hundred was down two percent. Na's deck down two

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Speaker 1: point seven percent, So tech stocks out of favor for

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Speaker 1: two one hundred down point one percent, Nicke down one

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Speaker 1: point eight percent, ASEX two hundred up point two percent,

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Speaker 1: seven nine eighty two. Ins X fifty were a down

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Speaker 1: point one five percent, twelve to eight seven, gold up

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Speaker 1: twenty eight dollars threeenty eighty five and outsets a new

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Speaker 1: record high a billion all down fifty six cents, six

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Speaker 1: nine spot thirty six. Just in the currencies here against

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Speaker 1: the US dollar there was down point four percent fifty

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Speaker 1: seven point two down slightly against Bussie ninety point nine down.

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Speaker 1: Also against the British pound forty four point two. Japanese

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Speaker 1: the end we're getting eighty five point seven that was

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Speaker 1: down one point two percent. I'm just looking ahead to

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Speaker 1: this week locally, We've got business confidence, we've got building permits,

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Speaker 1: we're gon another dairy auction, I'm shore RBA rate decision,

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Speaker 1: got us non fun payils and of course it is

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Speaker 1: the big one April second Liberation Day, sweeping tariffs that

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Speaker 1: we're coming in. Let's see what form you don't you make?

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Speaker 1: Good to catch up, Greg Smith, Devin Funds Management. For

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Speaker 1: more from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.

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Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

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