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Speaker 1: Jelda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,

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Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: troops have strengthened positions an expanded territory in Russia's Kursk

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Speaker 1: region nearly two weeks into their incursion. Ukraine says it

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Speaker 1: seized more than eighty settlements since August six in the

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Speaker 1: biggest invasion of Russia since World War Two. Coming two

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Speaker 1: and a half years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, why

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Speaker 1: has Ukraine decided to return the favor and what does

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Speaker 1: this incursion mean on a wider scale? Today on the

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Speaker 1: front Page, University of Waikato International law professor Alexander Gillespie

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Speaker 1: is with us to analyze this new twist in the

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Speaker 1: long running war. First off, this incursion really came out

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Speaker 1: of the blue. Can you explain to us why Ukraine

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Speaker 1: entering Russian territory is such a significant deal.

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Speaker 2: Well, in terms of strategy, the Ukrainians are trying to

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Speaker 2: make the Russians feel a bit more weight of the

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Speaker 2: war because the conflict so far has been almost exclusively

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Speaker 2: on Ukrainian territory. In terms of the wider imiplications, The

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Speaker 2: problem is that the war is contained if it stays

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Speaker 2: within the borders of the Ukraine. But once you start

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Speaker 2: finding incursions going into other countries, especially into Russia, the

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Speaker 2: chances of more retaliation are likely. Your bigger risk is

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Speaker 2: not that it goes into Russia, but that it spreads

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Speaker 2: into neighboring NATO aligned countries around the Ukraine. There's also

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Speaker 2: a lot of talk in Europe about the deployment of

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Speaker 2: Western soldiers into the actual Ukraine, so Makron was suggesting

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Speaker 2: that if the war starts to go badly, he would

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Speaker 2: consider deploying French troops into the Ukraine. But once you

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Speaker 2: allow non Ukrainian troops to go into the area, the

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Speaker 2: risk of it escalating increases exponentially.

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Speaker 1: What does Ukraine want to achieve by this incursion.

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Speaker 2: I think they're probably trying to put some pressure back

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Speaker 2: on Putin so he can see that his citizens will

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Speaker 2: not feel secure and that the Ukrainians have the ability

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Speaker 2: to push the war back into Russian territory. He may

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Speaker 2: also be trying to use it as a leveraging point

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Speaker 2: if peace negotiations start, but the chances of peace negotiations

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Speaker 2: forthwith are quite remote.

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Speaker 3: Zelenski spoke last night, but last night he give an

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Speaker 3: indication of what's really the incursion into Russia is all about,

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Speaker 3: basically denying Russia the ability to make war on Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: destruction of the bridges, pushing back of Russian forces. But

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Speaker 3: he also said that Ukraine cannot advance infinitely and forever

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Speaker 3: into Russia, so at some stage they will pull back

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Speaker 3: to a buffers while not expanding endless troops, endless material

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Speaker 3: trying to move forward, which will just end up draining

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Speaker 3: the Ukrainian military rather than achieving anything positive.

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Speaker 1: What limitations are there on Ukraine as they undertake this incursion.

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Speaker 1: They're currently getting arms supplied by much of NATO. Can

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Speaker 1: they use those weapons in this incursion.

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Speaker 2: A number of the weapons that they've got have been

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Speaker 2: increasing in range, and the understanding was that as they

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Speaker 2: were increasing in range that they would be able to

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Speaker 2: strike territory which is outside of the Ukraine. And so

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Speaker 2: this is particularly with regards to missiles, and the United

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Speaker 2: States and Britain have both made clear that expanding the

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Speaker 2: war more towards Russian territory is a decision for the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians to make, even though it's the western countries that

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Speaker 2: are giving them the military kit to do this.

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Speaker 1: We've currently seen Ukraine take hundreds of prisoners of war.

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Speaker 1: They've also blown up several bridges and taken control of

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Speaker 1: a number of towns in the region where they are.

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Speaker 1: Where does this set within international law and does that

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Speaker 1: even matter here when they're essentially retaliating against a country

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Speaker 1: that's invaded them in the first place.

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Speaker 2: The rules around the taking of prisoners are dealt with

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Speaker 2: very explicitly, and there's been a general compliance by both

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Speaker 2: the Ukraine and Russia with the taking in some cases

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Speaker 2: the exchange of prisoners. That part of the conflict seems

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Speaker 2: to be holding in accordance broadly with international law. Where

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Speaker 2: you've got differences is where there's been targeting of civilian

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Speaker 2: infrastructure in civilian areas, which is illegal. You've also got

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Speaker 2: the major problem of the transfer of children for which

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Speaker 2: mister Pewden has been indicted by the International Criminal Court.

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Speaker 2: The actual invasion of Russia is a retaliation, which is

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Speaker 2: because of what happened when the Russians illegally invaded the

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Speaker 2: yuk It's kind of a quid.

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Speaker 1: Pro quo, and am I right in thinking that this

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Speaker 1: is the first kind of incursion on Russian territory since

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Speaker 1: World War II.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be correct. There's certainly been concerned around

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Speaker 2: former Willstall Bank countries in nineteen fifty six with Hungary,

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Speaker 2: and there were disturbances in Czechoslovakia in the late sixties

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Speaker 2: as well, but not think in actual Russia itself. It

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Speaker 2: changes the dynamic and it challenges the idea that Putin

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Speaker 2: can completely protect his own citizens. But so far, even

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Speaker 2: though they've destroyed bridges, they seem to be trying. It

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Speaker 2: appears to fight quite clean and keep civilians and certain

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Speaker 2: civilian technologies out of harm's way. How much this will

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Speaker 2: be able to be contained in the future is.

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Speaker 1: Unknown in terms of this incursion. How is the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world feeling about this kind of escalation.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's nervous. It's because the more the war spreads in

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Speaker 2: terms of other countries getting in, the technology changing and

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Speaker 2: allowing people to strike at greater distances, or actually invading

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Speaker 2: other people's countries, it expands it. We've managed to keep

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Speaker 2: it contained so far because it's been kept tightly within

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Speaker 2: the borders of the Ukraine, but the Ukrainians are now saying, well,

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Speaker 2: it's unfair that it just falls on us. We want

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Speaker 2: to push back. Your risk is that Putin responds with

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Speaker 2: overwhelming force if he considers it to be a strategic necessity.

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Speaker 1: Well, Russia's continue to advance in eastern Ukraine despite this incursion.

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Speaker 1: Does that show the incursion has kind of done little

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Speaker 1: to slow Russia's progression.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's opened up a different front, and the thinking

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Speaker 2: will be that as you open up one front, the

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Speaker 2: Russian to have to redeploy their troops from an offensive

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Speaker 2: position to a defensive position, and so that may slow

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Speaker 2: the attack in the Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: What could the consequences internally be for President Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: in the fact Russia's borders have now being breached on

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Speaker 1: his watch. Doesn't this defeat some of his narrative about

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Speaker 1: Russia's strength.

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Speaker 2: I think it certainly challenges the idea that his country

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Speaker 2: is immune from foreign incursions. But his strength as a

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Speaker 2: leader of Russia is almost unprecedented. There's no one who's

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Speaker 2: going to challenge him. There may have been a time

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Speaker 2: previously when we had the mutiny last year, but right

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Speaker 2: now he is the undisputed leader of Russia and I

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Speaker 2: can't see anyone trying to threaten that position.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side, I guess does Ukraine need

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Speaker 1: to be careful about how far their soldiers actually go

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Speaker 1: that they don't risk turning the Russian public against them

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 2: I think it's not just the Russian public, it's also

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Speaker 2: the NATO public that they have to be concerned about,

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Speaker 2: because no one in Europe wants this war to expand.

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Speaker 2: As bad as it is for the Ukrainians, your worst

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Speaker 2: case scenario is it a palls in other countries. In

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Speaker 2: every kilometer more you advance into Russia, the greater chances

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Speaker 2: are that you will get a significant retaliation against the Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: What do you think the risk is that Putin and

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Speaker 1: Russia could retaliate in some extreme way for this incursion?

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Speaker 1: Is this this sort of incident that could push them

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Speaker 1: over the edge?

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Speaker 2: Do you think it depends how successful it is. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the Russians, wind they've annexed those two areas in the

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Speaker 2: eastern Ukraine, have made very clear that if these were

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Speaker 2: recaptured in total by the Ukrainian forces as assisted by NATO,

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Speaker 2: they would consider this justification for a nuclear strike. And

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Speaker 2: so right now I expect that they're waiting for the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians just to retreat back around their border, not actually

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Speaker 2: trying to entrench that territory, but to actually take Russian

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Speaker 2: territory is a fundamental objective that will not be allowed

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Speaker 2: by Russia. They won't allow any of their territory to

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Speaker 2: be occupied permanently, and that includes now also the annex

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Speaker 2: territory in the Euston part of the Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that this is a turning point in

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Speaker 1: the war or do you think it's kind of like

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Speaker 1: a more of a precursor.

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Speaker 2: I think the turning point in the war will happen

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Speaker 2: on November the seventh, which is the American election, and

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Speaker 2: that's when you're going to either see mister Trump come

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Speaker 2: to power or Miss Harris will remain in power. And

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Speaker 2: that's where you will see the determination, because Trump's made

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Speaker 2: clear if he achieves the White House, he wants to

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Speaker 2: have a pie steal cut very quickly. Whereas if Harris

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Speaker 2: retains to the White House, then you're going to see

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Speaker 2: a continuation of what's already happening.

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Speaker 4: As Vice President Kamala, Harris has been a strong supporter

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Speaker 4: of Ukraine and met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at

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Speaker 4: least six times since the war began. Former President Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump is less full throated in his support of Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Trump has frequently complained that the US spends too much

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Speaker 4: on the war in Ukraine and threatened to cut AID.

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Speaker 1: I know that we speak about this often, but New

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Speaker 1: Zealand is often in the sideline of kind of minor

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Speaker 1: nations around the world listening and looking in from Afar.

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Speaker 1: But is there anything more that we can do other

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Speaker 1: than what we've already done.

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Speaker 2: We have done exceptionally well. I wouldn't say we've got

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Speaker 2: a minor role. I'd say that we are definitely not

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Speaker 2: neutral in this conflict. We provide assistance, we provide training,

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Speaker 2: we help with refugees, We give as much support as

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Speaker 2: we can to the Ukraine. We support the International Criminal Court,

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Speaker 2: we support the International Court of Justice. Our voice is

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Speaker 2: loud and it's being heard.

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Speaker 1: What would happen if France does in fact send its

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Speaker 1: troops in, you.

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Speaker 2: Would then have a potential conflict between NATO and Russia.

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Speaker 2: And that is a nightmare scenario because if foreign troops

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Speaker 2: were involved, if NATO troops were involved, and then Putin

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Speaker 2: decided to strike at the base of those countries or

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Speaker 2: the transport of those troops. You might find that an

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Speaker 2: attack against one NATO member is an attack against all,

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Speaker 2: and you would get an overwhelming response. It's a nightmare scenario.

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Speaker 1: And in terms of Russia, is there always a threat

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Speaker 1: of something catastrophic like the use of nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 2: It's in the background. It seems to have calmed down

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Speaker 2: a little, but the rhetoric of Putin towards the end

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Speaker 2: of last year, when you had the first Ukrainian offensive

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Speaker 2: was very much that he will consider the use of

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Speaker 2: these if it's in the strategic interests of Russia, and

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Speaker 2: the strategic interests of Russia involved not losing territory.

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Speaker 5: The use of nuclear weapons is possible in the event

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Speaker 5: of an exceptional threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity

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Speaker 5: of our country. In exceptional cases. I don't think this

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Speaker 5: is such a case right now. There is no necessity

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Speaker 5: for that.

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Speaker 2: And so you're almost in a situation where you want

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Speaker 2: the Ukraine to be able to itself, but not too

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Speaker 2: much because if it provokes Hotin and he's pushed into

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Speaker 2: a corner. He's certainly made clear in his rhetoric he

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Speaker 2: would consider using nuclear weapons. That's correct.

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Speaker 1: Do you think he actually will though, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I think my guess is it's very unlikely because there's

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Speaker 2: no winner if that situation happened, because it would escalate

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Speaker 2: very quickly and to have global consequences. I think it's

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Speaker 2: more likely that you will find that both sides will

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Speaker 2: eventually tire, because right now the war is unsustainable in

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Speaker 2: terms of manpower and the amount of soldiers being killed

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Speaker 2: on both the Russian side and the Ukrainian side. It's

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Speaker 2: looking a little bit like the First World War in

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Speaker 2: terms of attrition. The hard part when you come to

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Speaker 2: what a peace steal look like, which would be a treaty,

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Speaker 2: and the questions are what is a number of questions

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Speaker 2: that The first one is what territory would go where,

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Speaker 2: because if you allow some of the eastern Ukraine to

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Speaker 2: go towards Russia, you've allowed an annexation, which is illegal

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Speaker 2: and international law. You've got the question of what would

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Speaker 2: happen with the war criminals, because mister Putin right now

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Speaker 2: is indicted and he's very unlikely to be willing to

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Speaker 2: surrender himself to the Hague. And then finally you've got

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Speaker 2: the question of what will happen in terms of security

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Speaker 2: alliances because the biggest issue of all is whether the

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Speaker 2: Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO, because mister Putin

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Speaker 2: is saying there's no way on earth he will let

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Speaker 2: them join NATO. But for the Ukrainians, NATO is the

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Speaker 2: only security blanket they would accept.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us out that said, for this episode

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Speaker 1: of the Front Page, you can read more about today's

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Speaker 1: stories and extensive news coverage at zat herold dot co

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Speaker 1: dot z. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells

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Speaker 1: with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.