1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,679 Speaker 1: New Dart around our population and where it resides Selwyn 2 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: as in christ which is so hot right now, fastest 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: growing area of the country. Around thirty two hundred people 4 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:09,399 Speaker 1: arrived in the year to June. It's a three point 5 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: nine percent increase. In the next decade that population could 6 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: in fact get close to the size of Dunedin Massa 7 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: University sociologist Paul Spinley back with us. Paul, very good 8 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,600 Speaker 1: morning to you, Good morning, make How does this growth 9 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: when you look at any given region when you get 10 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: stats like this is growth by osmosis or is it 11 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: word in mouth or is it a marketing campaign or 12 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: what is it? 13 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 2: No, it's none of those things. Really, It's about where 14 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: there is a growing economy and a growing desire to 15 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: live in that place. So Queenstown Lakes is one of 16 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 2: the top growing areas in New Zealand. And that's a 17 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 2: mixture of things tourism, hospitality and of course desirability, so 18 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: a lot of people. It has a very high level 19 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: of second home ownership down there. People have a second 20 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 2: home in Queenstown, so it's a mix of those things. 21 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: Although it wouldn't be the same case, would it, because 22 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: you would move to sell one. I mean, there's something 23 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: about the Canterbury region, isn't there People speak well of 24 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: christ Church and Canterbury. There's something going on there. 25 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 2: Yes there is. But the major thing that's growing both 26 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 2: Selwyn and Wei MAKERI is the displacement that resulted as 27 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: it was a result of the earthquake. So what we 28 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 2: see is christ Church is growing back slowly, but the 29 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 2: adjacent adjacent here is such as Selwyn, are really being 30 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 2: a beneficiary of that. So five point one percent growth 31 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 2: per years just extraordinary, and of course it develops its 32 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: own momentum. It's sort of it's got the businesses, it's 33 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: got the growth going on in terms of housing, and 34 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 2: it does fall behind in terms of services infrastructure. An 35 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: interesting stat for you, Mike is that of the twenty 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 2: odd schools primary schools that have got more than seven 37 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: hundred students, five of them are in so on wow. 38 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: So what do you do? Is there a formula for 39 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: any local authority? You go, okay, so we've got some 40 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: more people coming here. We don't know how many more, 41 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: whether the growth continues, but at some point we need 42 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on a new library and new bridge, 43 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: some new footpath and some pipes. 44 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 2: Now and that's exactly the problem that Selwyn is now 45 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 2: facing on all of those things that's down in terms 46 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: of services and infrastructure. A third of all people in 47 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 2: Selwyn are registered to a GP practice outside Selm because 48 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 2: there's simply no capacity. And I think that's the issue 49 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: mark is that we don't do planning very well. You 50 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: notice that the locals say that the three year electoral 51 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 2: cycles just a nuisance in terms of planning for twenty 52 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: or thirty years. This year. The plans ten years ago 53 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: were that Selwyn would be around sixty seven thousand. It 54 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: is at eighty four thousand, so it's well out in 55 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: terms of planning and projections. And I really think this 56 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 2: country needs to think about our regional policies and why 57 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 2: we would keep people in some parts of the country 58 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: rather than see them leave and the other parts of 59 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: the country. Do we need to reduce the population growth? 60 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 2: Can I quickly add that sel One's growing at five 61 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 2: point one percent per year, pepper cru is growing at 62 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: five percent per year and that's from international migration. In 63 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 2: terms of Seln, it's from internal migration. 64 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: Interesting do you think we'll ever crack that particular nut, 65 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: because I mean We've been talking about it forever, going well, 66 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: you can go over there and you should move there 67 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: and we'll redistribute everyone nicely. It's never going to happen, 68 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 1: is it. 69 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 2: No, it's not. And what we're forecasting is that within 70 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: a couple of decades three quarters of New Zealand's population 71 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: will live in the top half of the North Island 72 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 2: and forty percent will be in Auckland. Is that what 73 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: we want now? 74 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: It's crazy, it's crazy. But it's not going to stop though, 75 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: is it. Paul, listen, I got to We'll get you 76 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: back on another time, talk more about appreciate it very much, 77 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: Paul Spoonley, who's the Massive University sociologist. 78 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Casking Breakfast, listen live to 79 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: news talks. 80 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 81 00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.