1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,400
Speaker 1: Why today's GDP number is not irrelevant old, yes, backward

2
00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 1: looking by its nature, but irrelevant. No. We tip to grow.

3
00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,120
Speaker 1: By the way, it around zero point three zero point

4
00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,360
Speaker 1: four percent for quarter four of twenty twenty five, so

5
00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:15,520
Speaker 1: this is to the end of December. It would mark,

6
00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,800
Speaker 1: barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita

7
00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,120
Speaker 1: growth on the trot, and it tells you that number

8
00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,600
Speaker 1: does if we get it that the average in common

9
00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,520
Speaker 1: standard of living was ticking up on an on per

10
00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 1: person basis, albeit from a low base, which has been

11
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,600
Speaker 1: the problem we've had for the last few years. This

12
00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 1: is important because it tells you we're on the move,

13
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,280
Speaker 1: that we've been fighting back against recession. Some say the

14
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,760
Speaker 1: numbers is irrelevant because of the war and the oil

15
00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,400
Speaker 1: supply that's currently before us, but there are reasons to

16
00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,040
Speaker 1: be optimistic. The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest

17
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 1: rates where they are in three weeks when they next meet,

18
00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,680
Speaker 1: and there's a fork in the road. If inflation bumps,

19
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,840
Speaker 1: there'll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can

20
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,840
Speaker 1: still grow at a clip under three percent. Of two

21
00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,480
Speaker 1: things happen. One we don't panic and a self fulfilling

22
00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,080
Speaker 1: fuel shortage ensues, and two we learn the lessons of

23
00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:11,399
Speaker 1: liberation day. Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed.

24
00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 1: We're looking at alternative oil supplies as we speak. Our

25
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,760
Speaker 1: current stocks are described as stable at the moment. The

26
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,520
Speaker 1: tariff shock wasn't so much about a direct effect. It

27
00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,240
Speaker 1: was the knock on business and consumer confidence that got us.

28
00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,200
Speaker 1: Last year. People spent less, business paused hiring, investing because

29
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,240
Speaker 1: of the uncertainty, and it blew over. Yes, this is different,

30
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,199
Speaker 1: it involves more balls in the year, but the fundamental

31
00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,840
Speaker 1: lesson is the same. If we freak out, if we

32
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,240
Speaker 1: let uncertainty rule our lives, we exacerbate the very problem

33
00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,720
Speaker 1: we're trying to avoid in the first place. So I'm

34
00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,480
Speaker 1: relatively optimistic. For me once, shame on you. For me twice,

35
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 1: shame on me. So much of economics is basically just

36
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,520
Speaker 1: human feelings when it boils down to it. So when

37
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 1: today's GDP read comes out, let's take stock of where

38
00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,320
Speaker 1: we've been. Let's pat ourselves and our businesses on the

39
00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 1: back for our contributions. That number is not irrelevant. It

40
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 1: was hard thought. Confidence is key, and if we think

41
00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,320
Speaker 1: we can do it, we will. For more from Early

42
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 1: Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to News Talk Set

43
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,760
Speaker 1: B from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on

44
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:20,560
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio