WEBVTT - Trump tariff deadline changes again: Will they finally arrive and what does it mean for NZ?

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<v Speaker 1>Kyoda.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The Trump

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<v Speaker 2>tariffs are inching closer and closer towards becoming a reality.

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<v Speaker 2>While they were meant to kick into gear last week.

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<v Speaker 3>They've been delayed.

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<v Speaker 2>Again, this time to August first. Despite being accused of

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<v Speaker 2>chickening out, Donald Trump has reignited the tariff talk through

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<v Speaker 2>a series of letters and social media posts, announcing new

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<v Speaker 2>duties on dozens of countries if they don't sign trade deals.

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<v Speaker 2>In the months since Liberation Day, only two countries have

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<v Speaker 2>signed agreements with the US. So is it likely that

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<v Speaker 2>dozens more will be signed in the next month or

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<v Speaker 2>are we firmly in the era of a tit for

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<v Speaker 2>tariff war and economic uncertainty. Today on the front page,

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<v Speaker 2>New Zealand Herald, Business Editor at Large Liam Dan joins

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<v Speaker 2>us to discuss the latest in the economic story that

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<v Speaker 2>is dominating twenty twenty five. Liam, all these tariffs were

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<v Speaker 2>meant to be in place last week, right, Why have

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<v Speaker 2>they been delayed again?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's part of the game of negotiation. So you know,

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<v Speaker 4>I think what we've learned about the way Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 4>does business is that it's very deal based, very transactional. Well,

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<v Speaker 4>it meant to be in place on whenever it was April.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's right.

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<v Speaker 4>So they delayed everything and they started negotiations, and they've

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<v Speaker 4>had some negotiations. Like China, they've made some progress, Vietnam

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<v Speaker 4>they made some progress, but you know, I don't think

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<v Speaker 4>they've made as much progress as that they like. So

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<v Speaker 4>the deadline around July nine, that didn't hit that. So

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<v Speaker 4>they've said, oh, here's the new dead diners now August one.

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<v Speaker 4>But then, of course over the weekend, Donald Trump's come

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<v Speaker 4>out and sort of got ahead of that deadline with

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<v Speaker 4>another scary sort of announcement about big thirty percent tariffs

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<v Speaker 4>on Mexico and the EU thirty five percent on Canada.

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<v Speaker 4>And he's also threatened that the base tariff, which would

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<v Speaker 4>affect New Zealand, could go from where he's said all

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<v Speaker 4>countries will get a minimum of ten percent, that could

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<v Speaker 4>go up to fifteen or twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 5>But again, it's.

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<v Speaker 4>Very hard to know how seriously to take that, because

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<v Speaker 4>that's the way Donald Trump negotiates. There's a deadline coming

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<v Speaker 4>up on August one. In theory, he's trying to put

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<v Speaker 4>pressure on those negotiations with a big, scary number, and

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<v Speaker 4>one assumes at this point that you know, there'll still

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<v Speaker 4>be some movement before we get that. And so so

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<v Speaker 4>the numbers he's announced, I'm not one hundred percent very

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<v Speaker 4>unsure that they'll be the reality in the end.

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<v Speaker 2>Right So August first, do we actually think it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, who knows it. You know, these negotiations, the trade

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<v Speaker 4>negotiations are normally very complex and take a long long time,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's not the way Donald Trump wants.

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<v Speaker 5>To do things.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think he's finding out that, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 4>not that simple. There's side effects. He knows all that,

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<v Speaker 4>but he's still sort of playing a big game. There

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<v Speaker 4>are things like, you know, a big tariff announced on Brazil.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, immediately people start talking about coffee prices, which

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<v Speaker 4>really affect consumers. So the impact on US inflation and

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<v Speaker 4>then more importantly probably US markets and bond markets is

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<v Speaker 4>a driver. But I think it's a case of his

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<v Speaker 4>negotiating styles to see what he can get away. Was

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<v Speaker 4>push it as far as he can, then it comes

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<v Speaker 4>back a bit, Then he pushes again, and it comes

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<v Speaker 4>back again.

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<v Speaker 3>But we're going to just get tired of that though.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there's the cry wolf thing, right, So yeah, well

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's what we will see that measured in

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<v Speaker 4>market react. So there was a bit of market reaction initially.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it caught the Canada tariff announcement caught the

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<v Speaker 4>tail end of US markets. As we record this, we

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<v Speaker 4>haven't yet seen how Wall Street will react when it

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<v Speaker 4>opens Monday night, New Zealand time, but the Futures Exchanges

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<v Speaker 4>is suggesting a sort of at the moment, nearly two

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<v Speaker 4>hundred points coming off, So that's sort of like a

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<v Speaker 4>percent and three quarters off markets, which is a bit

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<v Speaker 4>of a fall.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not a collapse or and then it who knows.

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<v Speaker 2>It kind of feels like because initially, right we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking about Wall Street and it had its worst day

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<v Speaker 2>in next years or something like that. But with every announcement,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not hearing that anymore. So are the markets kind

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<v Speaker 2>of cluing up, I suppose to Donald Trump's way of

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<v Speaker 2>doing things.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think that's definitely happening. They carried on as

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<v Speaker 4>if nothing was happening in the gap between April and July,

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<v Speaker 4>so they actually got back to record highs that does

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<v Speaker 4>mean they're quite highly valued US stocks, so there's a

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<v Speaker 4>risk that something triggers a bit of a panic sell

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<v Speaker 4>off at any time. You know, we are in territory

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<v Speaker 4>where that could happen. But I think you know, you

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<v Speaker 4>see a little bit of reaction and then it's it's

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<v Speaker 4>you know, I'm sure Donald Trump and his negotiating team

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<v Speaker 4>would expect to see around two percent fall on Wall

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<v Speaker 4>Street and would would live with that. It's if it

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<v Speaker 4>gets a bit more out of hand that he pulls back,

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<v Speaker 4>or if those bond markets start to move against him,

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<v Speaker 4>which you know we've talked about before, very powerful influence

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<v Speaker 4>on the US and interest rates, which can really hurt

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<v Speaker 4>the US government, which has a lot of debt. It's

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<v Speaker 4>it's it's the game restarting. I mean, I think that's

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<v Speaker 4>what's happened. You know, He's he's getting back in the

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<v Speaker 4>game on tariffs. What it feels like is that we'll

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<v Speaker 4>get to where we get over a long period. You know, eventually,

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<v Speaker 4>maybe by the end of this year. You know, there's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be some higher tariffs than that we're in place.

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<v Speaker 4>The world is learning to.

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<v Speaker 5>Live with that.

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<v Speaker 4>There will be some real world impacts, you know, inflation

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<v Speaker 4>and all that sort of stuff. But you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>US administration has to balance that and get that right

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<v Speaker 4>politically for them, and then you know, as the world

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<v Speaker 4>deals with it. You know, in the background, Asia, Europe,

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<v Speaker 4>New Zealand, all these other nations are you know, really

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<v Speaker 4>putting the foot down on trade negotiation to move away

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<v Speaker 4>from the US as much as possible. So you're seeing

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<v Speaker 4>a sort of a lot of work going on behind

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<v Speaker 4>the scenes for nations to shore up other places for

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<v Speaker 4>their goods to go if they can't get as much

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<v Speaker 4>into the US, which weirdly, again could have some positive

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<v Speaker 4>effects for New Zealand.

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<v Speaker 5>It's hard to know.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't want more cost on our goods going into

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<v Speaker 4>the US, obviously for our winemakers and our beef and

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<v Speaker 4>so on. But the direct impacts still don't look totally

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<v Speaker 4>devastating other than you know, the general uncertainty. But in

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<v Speaker 4>a weird sort of way, the world's you know, living

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<v Speaker 4>with that this year.

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<v Speaker 1>What happened to.

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<v Speaker 2>Nay truth deals.

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<v Speaker 5>Oh, we've smoken to everybody. We know everything. It's all done.

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<v Speaker 6>I told you, I tell you, we'll make some deals.

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<v Speaker 6>But for the most part, we're going to send a

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<v Speaker 6>letter we're going to say, welcome to the United States

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<v Speaker 6>if you'd like to participate in the greatest, most successful

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<v Speaker 6>country ever. I mean, we're doing better than ever we have,

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<v Speaker 6>I don't think and you're going to see these numbers.

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<v Speaker 6>So we've never had numbers like this, We've never had

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<v Speaker 6>investment like this. We have more than ninety.

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<v Speaker 2>Back in April, the Trump administration, they promised ninety deals

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<v Speaker 2>in ninety days.

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<v Speaker 3>So I believe that that.

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<v Speaker 2>Was around the time when Donald Trump said something in

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<v Speaker 2>along the lines of all world leaders are going to

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<v Speaker 2>kiss my ass or something. They only managed two they've managed.

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<v Speaker 3>True, so UK and Vietnam. Where are the other eighty eight?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, as I say, it's harder than it might seem

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<v Speaker 4>from the outside to do these trade deals. They're very complicated.

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<v Speaker 4>It can take years to do the kind of free

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<v Speaker 4>trade deals.

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<v Speaker 3>Look at New Zealand and India.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's a long time. I mean that the China deal,

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<v Speaker 4>Europe deal we've got now that they take take years

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<v Speaker 4>and years, and there's all sorts of complicated you know,

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<v Speaker 4>exemptions and things that are in, things that are out,

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<v Speaker 4>and you know, I guess it has been it is

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<v Speaker 4>being accelerated. Donald Trump's you know, accelerating things. Yeah, again,

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<v Speaker 4>it just goes to just what he says at the time.

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<v Speaker 4>You take it with a big grain of salt. It's

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<v Speaker 4>it's part of a transactional way of doing business. So

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<v Speaker 4>he's not necessarily thinking about you know, the big, big

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<v Speaker 4>strategic sort of four dimensional chessies, thinking about winning the

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<v Speaker 4>transaction in front of him and progressing the US interest

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<v Speaker 4>that way, and maybe maybe it'll work. Maybe, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>at some point a year from now, he'll have higher

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs on everything and the US market will have adjusted

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<v Speaker 4>and he could call that a win. But he doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>seem to have any concerns or fears about looking bad

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<v Speaker 4>on saying something that doesn't happen, like he's you know,

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<v Speaker 4>his back downs. He doesn't call him back downs or reversals.

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<v Speaker 4>He just does them, and people just get used to it.

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<v Speaker 4>So I don't think, I don't think he cares that

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<v Speaker 4>much whether what he says eventuates specifically, you know, because

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<v Speaker 4>clearly a lot of stuff hasn't gone the way he said.

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<v Speaker 3>In terms of what it means for New Zealand.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I know that these numbers chop and change

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<v Speaker 2>all the time, but what are we looking.

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<v Speaker 3>At at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>So what tariff are we looking at come August first, Well.

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<v Speaker 4>We're still supposed to be just looking at a ten

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<v Speaker 4>percent based tariff, which I'm sure our businesses are the

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<v Speaker 4>businesses that are most affected. The beef and meat sector,

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<v Speaker 4>the wine sector have been working on dealing with talking

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<v Speaker 4>to the trading partners and customers, and I think largely

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<v Speaker 4>will will be okay, you know, we'll wear it because

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<v Speaker 4>that cost is going to be borne by US consumers

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<v Speaker 4>unless you know, unless it means they say no to

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<v Speaker 4>our goods and we have to drop the price a

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<v Speaker 4>bit to keep the same volumes up, and we don't

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<v Speaker 4>have somewhere else to send the products. But if we've

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<v Speaker 4>got other markets interested in our products, then we're not desperate.

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<v Speaker 4>The US needs a lot of our beef. It just

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't generate enough sort of low grade beef for hamburgers

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<v Speaker 4>and things like that, and so it actually needs New

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<v Speaker 4>Zealand and Brazilian and Argentinian beef to.

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<v Speaker 5>Go into all those and Australian.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah, you know, I think those sectors will

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<v Speaker 4>be a right, There is that risk, he said, he's

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<v Speaker 4>just he has said that, Oh look he might look

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<v Speaker 4>at fifteen to twenty percent as a base rate. That

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<v Speaker 4>sounds like a classic Donald Trump threat. I doubt it.

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<v Speaker 4>It's possible. Anything's possible, but I don't think people of

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<v Speaker 4>sudden sort of panicking and thinking this is happening just

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<v Speaker 4>because Donald Trump said it.

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<v Speaker 2>We've talked before about how tariffs actually affect your own

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<v Speaker 2>citizens and the cost for things at the supermarket and stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>And come August first, will US businesses and consumers be

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<v Speaker 2>the ones who are feeling the heat there.

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<v Speaker 4>On some key products? So like they've already put they

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<v Speaker 4>put a fifty percent tariff on copper and the price

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<v Speaker 4>sword so that has an impact. I've seen you the

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<v Speaker 4>Brazil coffee, orange juice consumers will It takes a while

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<v Speaker 4>for these things to flow through, and there is the

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<v Speaker 4>cost has spread between how much price pressure they can

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<v Speaker 4>put on the people, you know, like our exporters trying

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<v Speaker 4>to put goods into the US. But ultimately it is

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<v Speaker 4>expected to be inflationary in the US, so you see

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<v Speaker 4>a reaction on those bond markets. And that's around what

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<v Speaker 4>the US Fed will have to do with interest rates

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<v Speaker 4>if inflation comes back, So it can't put interest rates

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<v Speaker 4>down as low as it would like if inflation's coming back,

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<v Speaker 4>and that annoys Donald Trump because he thinks they should

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<v Speaker 4>just put the rate down anyway.

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<v Speaker 5>But you know, it's a it's a real world.

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<v Speaker 4>Impact, and that's what will prevent I think Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 4>just just enacting these big numbers that he talks about,

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<v Speaker 4>because when it gets to the crunch and the real

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<v Speaker 4>world impact start to flow through, that's when he dials

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:38.880
<v Speaker 4>it back a bit. So, as I say, I think

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 4>he's testing how far he can go. He gets a

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 4>certain number out there, brings it back. You know, there's

0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:46.760
<v Speaker 4>going to be tariffs. The world has changed. There's going

0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 4>to be US tariffs. But I don't think anyone's going

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.839
<v Speaker 4>to panic about these big numbers just yet.

0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.400
<v Speaker 2>Do you reckon it'd be a different story if he

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:57.080
<v Speaker 2>had to run again.

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 5>For first I don't know. He seems to believe that.

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.600
<v Speaker 4>He keeps talking about the fact that you know that

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 4>this this won't have the real world impacts that the

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 4>economists think it will. Inflation when it hits as one

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.280
<v Speaker 4>of the most damaging things politically. We've seen it in

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.120
<v Speaker 4>New Zealand and around the world.

0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 3>That's what I mean.

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Though, It's like, would he be making so many risks

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 2>and making so many I suppose low key enemies worldwide.

0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look at Brazil, They're looking at a fifty

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 2>percent tariff. They're not going to be overly happy about that.

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 4>No, Like, I honestly don't think he cares about whether

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 4>he's popular around the world. He does care about being

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 4>popular at home. Yeah, and you know, it's it's it's

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:44.440
<v Speaker 4>a There are some ideological things about Donald Trump and

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 4>MAGA and all that sort of stuff, and I'm not

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:50.600
<v Speaker 4>sure tariffs fit perfectly into that ideological mindset. It's sort

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:54.320
<v Speaker 4>of almost shocked some some of the Republicans the extent

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 4>to which he's pushed on the tariffs. So yeah, I mean, look,

0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 4>just remains to be seen. I think his personal ratings

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.720
<v Speaker 4>are probably swinging more on some of those cultural war

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 4>things and views about immigration crackdowns and that sort of stuff.

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 4>The numbers aren't showing that the tariffs have started to

0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 4>really hit the US economy directly yet. I think things

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 4>are still rolling along, and as we mentioned, the US

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.880
<v Speaker 4>markets are back at near record highs, So it's still,

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.760
<v Speaker 4>after all, this time isn't quite real yet, And that's

0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:30.560
<v Speaker 4>the sort of hard thing to for everyone dealing with

0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 4>the market pricing and all that sort of stuff to

0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:33.160
<v Speaker 4>deal with.

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 1>France's President a Manu Micron says he's in very strong

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.600
<v Speaker 1>disapproval of President Trump's announcement. If no agreements reached, the

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 1>French leader suggested EU plans speeding up the preparation of

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 1>credible countermeasures. Italy's Prime minister, meanwhile, Georgia Maloney said in

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 1>a statement it would make no sense to trigger a

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 1>trade war between the two sides of the Atlantic, whilst

0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 1>the Dutch Prime Minister Dick Scoff posted on social medi

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.880
<v Speaker 1>saying that EU must remain unite and resolute in its

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 1>aim to reach a mutually beneficial deal with the US.

0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 2>If we look at some of the revised tariff announcements

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:15.880
<v Speaker 2>from the past week, so we're looking at twenty five

0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 2>percent for Japan, Malaysia and South Korea, thirty percent for

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.000
<v Speaker 2>South Africa, thirty five for Mexico and the EU in Canada,

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 2>fifty percent for Brazil. So what kind of pressure are

0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 2>those leaders under, do you think? And and are different

0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 2>leaders taking different kind of approaches to how they deal

0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 2>with these tariffs?

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean mostly they're trying to negotiate and get

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 4>a good deal. I mean that there's there's you know,

0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 4>in the in the first few weeks after the Liberation Day,

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:47.000
<v Speaker 4>we saw the EU and China pushback and Canada pushback.

0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:49.040
<v Speaker 3>Those were the reciprocal Yeah.

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 4>Well, and Trump just escalated everything if they tried to

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.400
<v Speaker 4>put something And he's still saying that if you try

0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 4>and hit us with you know, reciprocal tariffs, and you know,

0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 4>he'll just escalate another twenty or thirty percent.

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 2>That's so bloody hard to calculate whatever's going on at

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 2>the moment.

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 4>I don't you know, mostly it's all going on behind

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.360
<v Speaker 4>the scenes, so we don't know where they're at with

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 4>these deals mostly, so it just feels like he's he's

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 4>playing a big hand to try and put the acid

0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 4>on for this the deal making that's ongoing and hasn't

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:22.800
<v Speaker 4>gone as well as he'd probably like at the stage.

0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.720
<v Speaker 4>And then it's like, well, August one, that's you know,

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.840
<v Speaker 4>two weeks, you know, just really put the pressure on,

0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:32.880
<v Speaker 4>see if that'll break some of his you know, that's

0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.080
<v Speaker 4>how he does deals. Then if he doesn't look like

0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.080
<v Speaker 4>he's going to win, he'll he'll backtrack. Well though he

0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 4>won't call it a backtrack, he'll just he'll just compromise

0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.560
<v Speaker 4>or something like that, and that probably is most likely.

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, we spoke to an Z head of geopolitical risk,

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 2>Cameron Mitchell, the other week. What did he have to

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 2>say about this age of uncertainty?

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.320
<v Speaker 4>Well, his view was that we just have to get

0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 4>used to it, right, that the kind of you know,

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.640
<v Speaker 4>certain we had up until I guess pre Trump, you know,

0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 4>the first Trump presidency and COVID and things was almost

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:10.440
<v Speaker 4>in some ways fairly unprecedented.

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 5>We had twenty years.

0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 4>Of sort of boring lows from the GFC through you know,

0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:19.159
<v Speaker 4>it was just boring low growth, low inflation. But it

0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:23.320
<v Speaker 4>was all very very predictable for you know, almost twenty years.

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.439
<v Speaker 4>And when you look back at history over the last

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:31.400
<v Speaker 4>one hundred years or so, you know, markets and economies

0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:35.359
<v Speaker 4>and technology and society have carried on through great depressions

0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.359
<v Speaker 4>and wars and all that sort of stuff, you know,

0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 4>and so maybe the world's a bit more like that

0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 4>at the moment. I guess it's about having confidence that

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.760
<v Speaker 4>things keep going, because it's a change of mindset for

0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.119
<v Speaker 4>a lot of us, you know, especially of a certain

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:50.679
<v Speaker 4>age that grew up with a world order that was

0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.680
<v Speaker 4>all in place and everybody was moving to more liberalization

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.040
<v Speaker 4>and more free trade and that going into reverse. You know,

0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.880
<v Speaker 4>in some ways it's the first time in my lifetime

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:04.280
<v Speaker 4>seen that reverse. But that does happen cycles come and go.

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:06.959
<v Speaker 3>Is that two steps forward, one step back kind of thing.

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.600
<v Speaker 4>Well, hopefully, I mean it's not. Hopefully, it just doesn't

0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.200
<v Speaker 4>continue to step back. That the trek is really to

0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 4>have some confidence about things carrying on and not start

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.040
<v Speaker 4>to feel like that it's apocalyptic or that the end

0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 4>of the world is happening because the big picture stuff

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 4>has changed. I mean, I've just come back from the US.

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:26.399
<v Speaker 2>I was just about to say, what was the vibe

0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 2>over there? Like, well, it was where'd you go in

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:29.120
<v Speaker 2>New York?

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 4>Spent the whole time in New York, which is it's

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.240
<v Speaker 4>almost like a city state, And I'm not going to

0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.399
<v Speaker 4>say it's representative everywhere, but it was almost like a

0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.199
<v Speaker 4>politics free zone. I mean, unless I turned on the

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:44.159
<v Speaker 4>social media or the TV, as I would hear you know,

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.760
<v Speaker 4>you didn't hear people talking about the politics on the

0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 4>subway or in the cafes or the Dalley's or whatever.

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 4>People were out enjoying the summer or they're busy, they're hustling.

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:58.080
<v Speaker 4>It's just life goes on. And it's interesting. You know,

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.959
<v Speaker 4>cities like New York, London, Rome and all those places

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:05.119
<v Speaker 4>where they've been rolling for you know, hundreds of years,

0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 4>thousands of years. It takes a lot to rattle them.

0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:10.240
<v Speaker 4>And I think sometimes in New Zealand, you know, we're

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 4>a new place.

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:13.879
<v Speaker 3>The costs vert to take.

0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and because we're on the edge of the world,

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.479
<v Speaker 4>we absorb, you know, we're absorbing everything through social media

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:25.400
<v Speaker 4>and and through mainstream media. And you know, look, I'm

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 4>not saying that there are big, strange things happening in

0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:32.879
<v Speaker 4>the world, there's no denying that. But it does keep rolling.

0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:36.480
<v Speaker 4>And it's important in New Zealand that we maintain confidence

0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:40.000
<v Speaker 4>and keep doing the things, playing that, playing the sort

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.800
<v Speaker 4>of cards as they're dealt, playing the the ball in

0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:45.359
<v Speaker 4>front of us, in order to to make sure that

0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:47.480
<v Speaker 4>we don't sort of create our own sort of self

0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 4>fulfilling negative negative prophecy.

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:51.080
<v Speaker 3>I guess, right, So what's.

0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Your final batley? Will August first go ahead?

0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:55.639
<v Speaker 3>Or what are you.

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 2>Buying me as a result?

0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I guess my gut feel is that he'll have

0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:04.359
<v Speaker 4>to have something for August first, but it won't be

0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 4>won't be what he's announced at the weekend. There'll there'll

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 4>be some deals before then, and probably well, August one

0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:16.399
<v Speaker 4>isn't the end of this. I think this will carry

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 4>on for months to come. For the rest of the year.

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:23.960
<v Speaker 4>We're still going to see Tariff's ebb and flow and

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:30.760
<v Speaker 4>market uncertainty, and eventually you'd think he's got to get

0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.919
<v Speaker 4>to somewhere solid in this term, but it's going to

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:35.119
<v Speaker 4>take longer than August one.

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:36.600
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for joining us, Liam.

0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 5>Cheers, good to be here.

0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:43.760
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You

0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:47.640
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:48.880
<v Speaker 2>at ens at Herald.

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 3>Dot co dot MZ.

0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.399
<v Speaker 2>The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells and Richard Martin,

0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:56.040
<v Speaker 2>who is also our sound engineer.

0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:58.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm Chelsea Daniels.

0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 2>Subscribe to The Front Page John iHeartRadio or wherever you

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:05.840
<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look

0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:07.280
<v Speaker 2>behind the headlines.