1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: Kyoda. 2 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The Trump 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 2: tariffs are inching closer and closer towards becoming a reality. 5 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 2: While they were meant to kick into gear last week. 6 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 3: They've been delayed. 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 2: Again, this time to August first. Despite being accused of 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,319 Speaker 2: chickening out, Donald Trump has reignited the tariff talk through 9 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: a series of letters and social media posts, announcing new 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: duties on dozens of countries if they don't sign trade deals. 11 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 2: In the months since Liberation Day, only two countries have 12 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: signed agreements with the US. So is it likely that 13 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 2: dozens more will be signed in the next month or 14 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: are we firmly in the era of a tit for 15 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 2: tariff war and economic uncertainty. Today on the front page, 16 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 2: New Zealand Herald, Business Editor at Large Liam Dan joins 17 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: us to discuss the latest in the economic story that 18 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 2: is dominating twenty twenty five. Liam, all these tariffs were 19 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 2: meant to be in place last week, right, Why have 20 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 2: they been delayed again? 21 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: Well, it's part of the game of negotiation. So you know, 22 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 4: I think what we've learned about the way Donald Trump 23 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 4: does business is that it's very deal based, very transactional. Well, 24 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 4: it meant to be in place on whenever it was April. 25 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. 26 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 4: So they delayed everything and they started negotiations, and they've 27 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 4: had some negotiations. Like China, they've made some progress, Vietnam 28 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 4: they made some progress, but you know, I don't think 29 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 4: they've made as much progress as that they like. So 30 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 4: the deadline around July nine, that didn't hit that. So 31 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 4: they've said, oh, here's the new dead diners now August one. 32 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 4: But then, of course over the weekend, Donald Trump's come 33 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: out and sort of got ahead of that deadline with 34 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 4: another scary sort of announcement about big thirty percent tariffs 35 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 4: on Mexico and the EU thirty five percent on Canada. 36 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 4: And he's also threatened that the base tariff, which would 37 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 4: affect New Zealand, could go from where he's said all 38 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 4: countries will get a minimum of ten percent, that could 39 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 4: go up to fifteen or twenty percent. 40 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 5: But again, it's. 41 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 4: Very hard to know how seriously to take that, because 42 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 4: that's the way Donald Trump negotiates. There's a deadline coming 43 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 4: up on August one. In theory, he's trying to put 44 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,959 Speaker 4: pressure on those negotiations with a big, scary number, and 45 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 4: one assumes at this point that you know, there'll still 46 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 4: be some movement before we get that. And so so 47 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 4: the numbers he's announced, I'm not one hundred percent very 48 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 4: unsure that they'll be the reality in the end. 49 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 2: Right So August first, do we actually think it's going 50 00:02:58,800 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: to happen? 51 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 4: Well, who knows it. You know, these negotiations, the trade 52 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 4: negotiations are normally very complex and take a long long time, 53 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 4: and that's not the way Donald Trump wants. 54 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 5: To do things. 55 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,839 Speaker 4: But I think he's finding out that, you know, it's 56 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 4: not that simple. There's side effects. He knows all that, 57 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 4: but he's still sort of playing a big game. There 58 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 4: are things like, you know, a big tariff announced on Brazil. 59 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: You know, immediately people start talking about coffee prices, which 60 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 4: really affect consumers. So the impact on US inflation and 61 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 4: then more importantly probably US markets and bond markets is 62 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 4: a driver. But I think it's a case of his 63 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 4: negotiating styles to see what he can get away. Was 64 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 4: push it as far as he can, then it comes 65 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: back a bit, Then he pushes again, and it comes 66 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 4: back again. 67 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 3: But we're going to just get tired of that though. 68 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's the cry wolf thing, right, So yeah, well 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 4: I think that's what we will see that measured in 70 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 4: market react. So there was a bit of market reaction initially. 71 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 4: I think it caught the Canada tariff announcement caught the 72 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 4: tail end of US markets. As we record this, we 73 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: haven't yet seen how Wall Street will react when it 74 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 4: opens Monday night, New Zealand time, but the Futures Exchanges 75 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 4: is suggesting a sort of at the moment, nearly two 76 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 4: hundred points coming off, So that's sort of like a 77 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 4: percent and three quarters off markets, which is a bit 78 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 4: of a fall. 79 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 5: It's not a collapse or and then it who knows. 80 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 2: It kind of feels like because initially, right we were 81 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 2: talking about Wall Street and it had its worst day 82 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 2: in next years or something like that. But with every announcement, 83 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 2: I'm not hearing that anymore. So are the markets kind 84 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 2: of cluing up, I suppose to Donald Trump's way of 85 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: doing things. 86 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's definitely happening. They carried on as 87 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 4: if nothing was happening in the gap between April and July, 88 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 4: so they actually got back to record highs that does 89 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 4: mean they're quite highly valued US stocks, so there's a 90 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 4: risk that something triggers a bit of a panic sell 91 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 4: off at any time. You know, we are in territory 92 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 4: where that could happen. But I think you know, you 93 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 4: see a little bit of reaction and then it's it's 94 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 4: you know, I'm sure Donald Trump and his negotiating team 95 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 4: would expect to see around two percent fall on Wall 96 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 4: Street and would would live with that. It's if it 97 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 4: gets a bit more out of hand that he pulls back, 98 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 4: or if those bond markets start to move against him, 99 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 4: which you know we've talked about before, very powerful influence 100 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 4: on the US and interest rates, which can really hurt 101 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 4: the US government, which has a lot of debt. It's 102 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 4: it's it's the game restarting. I mean, I think that's 103 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 4: what's happened. You know, He's he's getting back in the 104 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 4: game on tariffs. What it feels like is that we'll 105 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 4: get to where we get over a long period. You know, eventually, 106 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 4: maybe by the end of this year. You know, there's 107 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 4: going to be some higher tariffs than that we're in place. 108 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 4: The world is learning to. 109 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 5: Live with that. 110 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 4: There will be some real world impacts, you know, inflation 111 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 4: and all that sort of stuff. But you know, the 112 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 4: US administration has to balance that and get that right 113 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 4: politically for them, and then you know, as the world 114 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 4: deals with it. You know, in the background, Asia, Europe, 115 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 4: New Zealand, all these other nations are you know, really 116 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 4: putting the foot down on trade negotiation to move away 117 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 4: from the US as much as possible. So you're seeing 118 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 4: a sort of a lot of work going on behind 119 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 4: the scenes for nations to shore up other places for 120 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 4: their goods to go if they can't get as much 121 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 4: into the US, which weirdly, again could have some positive 122 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 4: effects for New Zealand. 123 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 5: It's hard to know. 124 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 4: We don't want more cost on our goods going into 125 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 4: the US, obviously for our winemakers and our beef and 126 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 4: so on. But the direct impacts still don't look totally 127 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 4: devastating other than you know, the general uncertainty. But in 128 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 4: a weird sort of way, the world's you know, living 129 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 4: with that this year. 130 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: What happened to. 131 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: Nay truth deals. 132 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 5: Oh, we've smoken to everybody. We know everything. It's all done. 133 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 6: I told you, I tell you, we'll make some deals. 134 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 6: But for the most part, we're going to send a 135 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 6: letter we're going to say, welcome to the United States 136 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 6: if you'd like to participate in the greatest, most successful 137 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 6: country ever. I mean, we're doing better than ever we have, 138 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 6: I don't think and you're going to see these numbers. 139 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 6: So we've never had numbers like this, We've never had 140 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 6: investment like this. We have more than ninety. 141 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 2: Back in April, the Trump administration, they promised ninety deals 142 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 2: in ninety days. 143 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 3: So I believe that that. 144 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 2: Was around the time when Donald Trump said something in 145 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: along the lines of all world leaders are going to 146 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 2: kiss my ass or something. They only managed two they've managed. 147 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 3: True, so UK and Vietnam. Where are the other eighty eight? 148 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 4: Well, as I say, it's harder than it might seem 149 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 4: from the outside to do these trade deals. They're very complicated. 150 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 4: It can take years to do the kind of free 151 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 4: trade deals. 152 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 3: Look at New Zealand and India. 153 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a long time. I mean that the China deal, 154 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 4: Europe deal we've got now that they take take years 155 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 4: and years, and there's all sorts of complicated you know, 156 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 4: exemptions and things that are in, things that are out, 157 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 4: and you know, I guess it has been it is 158 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 4: being accelerated. Donald Trump's you know, accelerating things. Yeah, again, 159 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 4: it just goes to just what he says at the time. 160 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 4: You take it with a big grain of salt. It's 161 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 4: it's part of a transactional way of doing business. So 162 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 4: he's not necessarily thinking about you know, the big, big 163 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 4: strategic sort of four dimensional chessies, thinking about winning the 164 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 4: transaction in front of him and progressing the US interest 165 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 4: that way, and maybe maybe it'll work. Maybe, you know, 166 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 4: at some point a year from now, he'll have higher 167 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 4: tariffs on everything and the US market will have adjusted 168 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 4: and he could call that a win. But he doesn't 169 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 4: seem to have any concerns or fears about looking bad 170 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 4: on saying something that doesn't happen, like he's you know, 171 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 4: his back downs. He doesn't call him back downs or reversals. 172 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 4: He just does them, and people just get used to it. 173 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 4: So I don't think, I don't think he cares that 174 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 4: much whether what he says eventuates specifically, you know, because 175 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 4: clearly a lot of stuff hasn't gone the way he said. 176 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 3: In terms of what it means for New Zealand. 177 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: I mean, I know that these numbers chop and change 178 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 2: all the time, but what are we looking. 179 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 3: At at the moment. 180 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 2: So what tariff are we looking at come August first, Well. 181 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 4: We're still supposed to be just looking at a ten 182 00:09:54,920 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 4: percent based tariff, which I'm sure our businesses are the 183 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 4: businesses that are most affected. The beef and meat sector, 184 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 4: the wine sector have been working on dealing with talking 185 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 4: to the trading partners and customers, and I think largely 186 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 4: will will be okay, you know, we'll wear it because 187 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 4: that cost is going to be borne by US consumers 188 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 4: unless you know, unless it means they say no to 189 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 4: our goods and we have to drop the price a 190 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 4: bit to keep the same volumes up, and we don't 191 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 4: have somewhere else to send the products. But if we've 192 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 4: got other markets interested in our products, then we're not desperate. 193 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 4: The US needs a lot of our beef. It just 194 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 4: doesn't generate enough sort of low grade beef for hamburgers 195 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 4: and things like that, and so it actually needs New 196 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 4: Zealand and Brazilian and Argentinian beef to. 197 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 5: Go into all those and Australian. 198 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you know, I think those sectors will 199 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 4: be a right, There is that risk, he said, he's 200 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 4: just he has said that, Oh look he might look 201 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,599 Speaker 4: at fifteen to twenty percent as a base rate. That 202 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 4: sounds like a classic Donald Trump threat. I doubt it. 203 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 4: It's possible. Anything's possible, but I don't think people of 204 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 4: sudden sort of panicking and thinking this is happening just 205 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 4: because Donald Trump said it. 206 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: We've talked before about how tariffs actually affect your own 207 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 2: citizens and the cost for things at the supermarket and stuff. 208 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 2: And come August first, will US businesses and consumers be 209 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 2: the ones who are feeling the heat there. 210 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 4: On some key products? So like they've already put they 211 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 4: put a fifty percent tariff on copper and the price 212 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 4: sword so that has an impact. I've seen you the 213 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 4: Brazil coffee, orange juice consumers will It takes a while 214 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 4: for these things to flow through, and there is the 215 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 4: cost has spread between how much price pressure they can 216 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 4: put on the people, you know, like our exporters trying 217 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 4: to put goods into the US. But ultimately it is 218 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 4: expected to be inflationary in the US, so you see 219 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:08,959 Speaker 4: a reaction on those bond markets. And that's around what 220 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 4: the US Fed will have to do with interest rates 221 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 4: if inflation comes back, So it can't put interest rates 222 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 4: down as low as it would like if inflation's coming back, 223 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 4: and that annoys Donald Trump because he thinks they should 224 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 4: just put the rate down anyway. 225 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 5: But you know, it's a it's a real world. 226 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 4: Impact, and that's what will prevent I think Donald Trump 227 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 4: just just enacting these big numbers that he talks about, 228 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 4: because when it gets to the crunch and the real 229 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 4: world impact start to flow through, that's when he dials 230 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 4: it back a bit. So, as I say, I think 231 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 4: he's testing how far he can go. He gets a 232 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 4: certain number out there, brings it back. You know, there's 233 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 4: going to be tariffs. The world has changed. There's going 234 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 4: to be US tariffs. But I don't think anyone's going 235 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 4: to panic about these big numbers just yet. 236 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 2: Do you reckon it'd be a different story if he 237 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: had to run again. 238 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 5: For first I don't know. He seems to believe that. 239 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 4: He keeps talking about the fact that you know that 240 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 4: this this won't have the real world impacts that the 241 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 4: economists think it will. Inflation when it hits as one 242 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 4: of the most damaging things politically. We've seen it in 243 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 4: New Zealand and around the world. 244 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: That's what I mean. 245 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: Though, It's like, would he be making so many risks 246 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 2: and making so many I suppose low key enemies worldwide. 247 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 2: I mean, look at Brazil, They're looking at a fifty 248 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: percent tariff. They're not going to be overly happy about that. 249 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 4: No, Like, I honestly don't think he cares about whether 250 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 4: he's popular around the world. He does care about being 251 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 4: popular at home. Yeah, and you know, it's it's it's 252 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 4: a There are some ideological things about Donald Trump and 253 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 4: MAGA and all that sort of stuff, and I'm not 254 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 4: sure tariffs fit perfectly into that ideological mindset. It's sort 255 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 4: of almost shocked some some of the Republicans the extent 256 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 4: to which he's pushed on the tariffs. So yeah, I mean, look, 257 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 4: just remains to be seen. I think his personal ratings 258 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 4: are probably swinging more on some of those cultural war 259 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 4: things and views about immigration crackdowns and that sort of stuff. 260 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 4: The numbers aren't showing that the tariffs have started to 261 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 4: really hit the US economy directly yet. I think things 262 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 4: are still rolling along, and as we mentioned, the US 263 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 4: markets are back at near record highs, So it's still, 264 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 4: after all, this time isn't quite real yet, And that's 265 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 4: the sort of hard thing to for everyone dealing with 266 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 4: the market pricing and all that sort of stuff to 267 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 4: deal with. 268 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: France's President a Manu Micron says he's in very strong 269 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: disapproval of President Trump's announcement. If no agreements reached, the 270 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: French leader suggested EU plans speeding up the preparation of 271 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: credible countermeasures. Italy's Prime minister, meanwhile, Georgia Maloney said in 272 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: a statement it would make no sense to trigger a 273 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: trade war between the two sides of the Atlantic, whilst 274 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: the Dutch Prime Minister Dick Scoff posted on social medi 275 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: saying that EU must remain unite and resolute in its 276 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: aim to reach a mutually beneficial deal with the US. 277 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 2: If we look at some of the revised tariff announcements 278 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 2: from the past week, so we're looking at twenty five 279 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 2: percent for Japan, Malaysia and South Korea, thirty percent for 280 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 2: South Africa, thirty five for Mexico and the EU in Canada, 281 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: fifty percent for Brazil. So what kind of pressure are 282 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 2: those leaders under, do you think? And and are different 283 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: leaders taking different kind of approaches to how they deal 284 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 2: with these tariffs? 285 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean mostly they're trying to negotiate and get 286 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 4: a good deal. I mean that there's there's you know, 287 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 4: in the in the first few weeks after the Liberation Day, 288 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 4: we saw the EU and China pushback and Canada pushback. 289 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 3: Those were the reciprocal Yeah. 290 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 4: Well, and Trump just escalated everything if they tried to 291 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 4: put something And he's still saying that if you try 292 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 4: and hit us with you know, reciprocal tariffs, and you know, 293 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 4: he'll just escalate another twenty or thirty percent. 294 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 2: That's so bloody hard to calculate whatever's going on at 295 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 2: the moment. 296 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 4: I don't you know, mostly it's all going on behind 297 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 4: the scenes, so we don't know where they're at with 298 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 4: these deals mostly, so it just feels like he's he's 299 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 4: playing a big hand to try and put the acid 300 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 4: on for this the deal making that's ongoing and hasn't 301 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 4: gone as well as he'd probably like at the stage. 302 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 4: And then it's like, well, August one, that's you know, 303 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 4: two weeks, you know, just really put the pressure on, 304 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 4: see if that'll break some of his you know, that's 305 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 4: how he does deals. Then if he doesn't look like 306 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 4: he's going to win, he'll he'll backtrack. Well though he 307 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 4: won't call it a backtrack, he'll just he'll just compromise 308 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 4: or something like that, and that probably is most likely. 309 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 2: Well, we spoke to an Z head of geopolitical risk, 310 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 2: Cameron Mitchell, the other week. What did he have to 311 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 2: say about this age of uncertainty? 312 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 4: Well, his view was that we just have to get 313 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 4: used to it, right, that the kind of you know, 314 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 4: certain we had up until I guess pre Trump, you know, 315 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 4: the first Trump presidency and COVID and things was almost 316 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 4: in some ways fairly unprecedented. 317 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 5: We had twenty years. 318 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 4: Of sort of boring lows from the GFC through you know, 319 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 4: it was just boring low growth, low inflation. But it 320 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 4: was all very very predictable for you know, almost twenty years. 321 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 4: And when you look back at history over the last 322 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 4: one hundred years or so, you know, markets and economies 323 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 4: and technology and society have carried on through great depressions 324 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 4: and wars and all that sort of stuff, you know, 325 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 4: and so maybe the world's a bit more like that 326 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 4: at the moment. I guess it's about having confidence that 327 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 4: things keep going, because it's a change of mindset for 328 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 4: a lot of us, you know, especially of a certain 329 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 4: age that grew up with a world order that was 330 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 4: all in place and everybody was moving to more liberalization 331 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 4: and more free trade and that going into reverse. You know, 332 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 4: in some ways it's the first time in my lifetime 333 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 4: seen that reverse. But that does happen cycles come and go. 334 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,959 Speaker 3: Is that two steps forward, one step back kind of thing. 335 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 4: Well, hopefully, I mean it's not. Hopefully, it just doesn't 336 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 4: continue to step back. That the trek is really to 337 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 4: have some confidence about things carrying on and not start 338 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 4: to feel like that it's apocalyptic or that the end 339 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 4: of the world is happening because the big picture stuff 340 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 4: has changed. I mean, I've just come back from the US. 341 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 2: I was just about to say, what was the vibe 342 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 2: over there? Like, well, it was where'd you go in 343 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:29,120 Speaker 2: New York? 344 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 4: Spent the whole time in New York, which is it's 345 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 4: almost like a city state, And I'm not going to 346 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 4: say it's representative everywhere, but it was almost like a 347 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 4: politics free zone. I mean, unless I turned on the 348 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 4: social media or the TV, as I would hear you know, 349 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 4: you didn't hear people talking about the politics on the 350 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 4: subway or in the cafes or the Dalley's or whatever. 351 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 4: People were out enjoying the summer or they're busy, they're hustling. 352 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 4: It's just life goes on. And it's interesting. You know, 353 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 4: cities like New York, London, Rome and all those places 354 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 4: where they've been rolling for you know, hundreds of years, 355 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 4: thousands of years. It takes a lot to rattle them. 356 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 4: And I think sometimes in New Zealand, you know, we're 357 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 4: a new place. 358 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 3: The costs vert to take. 359 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 4: Yeah, and because we're on the edge of the world, 360 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,479 Speaker 4: we absorb, you know, we're absorbing everything through social media 361 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 4: and and through mainstream media. And you know, look, I'm 362 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 4: not saying that there are big, strange things happening in 363 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 4: the world, there's no denying that. But it does keep rolling. 364 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 4: And it's important in New Zealand that we maintain confidence 365 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 4: and keep doing the things, playing that, playing the sort 366 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 4: of cards as they're dealt, playing the the ball in 367 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 4: front of us, in order to to make sure that 368 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 4: we don't sort of create our own sort of self 369 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 4: fulfilling negative negative prophecy. 370 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 3: I guess, right, So what's. 371 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: Your final batley? Will August first go ahead? 372 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 3: Or what are you. 373 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: Buying me as a result? 374 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I guess my gut feel is that he'll have 375 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 4: to have something for August first, but it won't be 376 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 4: won't be what he's announced at the weekend. There'll there'll 377 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 4: be some deals before then, and probably well, August one 378 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 4: isn't the end of this. I think this will carry 379 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 4: on for months to come. For the rest of the year. 380 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 4: We're still going to see Tariff's ebb and flow and 381 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 4: market uncertainty, and eventually you'd think he's got to get 382 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 4: to somewhere solid in this term, but it's going to 383 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 4: take longer than August one. 384 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us, Liam. 385 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 5: Cheers, good to be here. 386 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 387 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 388 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 2: at ens at Herald. 389 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 3: Dot co dot MZ. 390 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells and Richard Martin, 391 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 2: who is also our sound engineer. 392 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 3: I'm Chelsea Daniels. 393 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 2: Subscribe to The Front Page John iHeartRadio or wherever you 394 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 395 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.