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Speaker 1: Interesting new insight into the rental market and whether Airbnb

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Speaker 1: has had an effect on prices. The answer appy is

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Speaker 1: to be no. This comes out of a study done

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Speaker 1: by Informetric Chief executive principal economist. Brad Olsen is with

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Speaker 1: us on this Brad Morning. Just to clear this up,

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Speaker 1: you were commissioned by Airbnb to do this. Did you

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Speaker 1: get stitched up? As this legit?

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Speaker 2: It is legit, and no, I don't get stitched up, Mike.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot more of myself and I think

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Speaker 2: others think a lot more of us for this. But

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Speaker 2: I think this is probably why Airbnb came to us.

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Speaker 2: I said, look, everyone always talks about what the effect

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Speaker 2: of Airbnb and similar might be on the rental market.

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Speaker 2: No one's actually done the numbers. We sort of just

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Speaker 2: talked about it. Can you go and do the figures?

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Speaker 2: And we did. We went into it with an open

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Speaker 2: mind and what we found was that actually the largest

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Speaker 2: influence on the rental and housing markets are fun enough

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Speaker 2: population growth, but also the interest rates airbnbs have. Other

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Speaker 2: short term rental accommodation doesn't have a particularly big influence

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Speaker 2: at all, which makes sense given the sorts of population

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Speaker 2: growth and similarly you've had over years, and suggests that again,

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Speaker 2: you really just need to increase the supply of houses

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Speaker 2: across the board if you want to improve housing outcomes.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me pick up on a couple of

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Speaker 1: things here. If we didn't have the immigration growth we had,

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Speaker 1: would it be different.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think it probably would be. But you'd also

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Speaker 2: then need to look at other parts of the economy

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Speaker 2: in terms of the labor market and similar Would we

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Speaker 2: have the right skills, would we have the right people

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Speaker 2: to do things? I think it's more that if we're

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Speaker 2: going to have migration levels like we've had it, and

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Speaker 2: I actually think that's a good thing, we sort of

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Speaker 2: also have to resource it well at the right time.

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Speaker 2: And I think you know, when we went through this analysis,

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Speaker 2: we pulled together a bunch of data on the lights

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Speaker 2: of the housing market over a longer period of time,

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Speaker 2: growth in the dwellings and similar and it continues to

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Speaker 2: suggest every report that we seem to do on the

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Speaker 2: housing market suggests that we just need to continually build more.

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Speaker 1: Right, So are you suggesting immigration aside that there aren't

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Speaker 1: enough AIRB and B houses to affect the price, because

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Speaker 1: logic would indicate that if there's a house sitting on

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Speaker 1: a street and it's airb and b'd as opposed to

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Speaker 1: rent it, that must in some way shape or form

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Speaker 1: thick the rental market.

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Speaker 2: Well, that was the interesting thing. That was another thing

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Speaker 2: that we did tests through the analysis, because there's always

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Speaker 2: this idea Mike that if you have an Airbnb, if

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Speaker 2: it wasn't in an airbnb, it would definitely be a

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Speaker 2: long term rental, and we found that often just wasn't

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Speaker 2: the case. Particularly in Queenstown for example, we found a

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Speaker 2: number of areas where, even before airbnb was ever a thing,

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Speaker 2: yet quite a lot of holiday homes and similar So

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Speaker 2: just because the house is there doesn't mean it will

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Speaker 2: be a long term rental. And therefore that's where when

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Speaker 2: we went through some of those figures, that's where we

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Speaker 2: found that actually it wouldn't necessarily be a huge conversion through.

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Speaker 2: What we also found, and I think this was sort

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Speaker 2: of particularly interesting, is that often I think we sort

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Speaker 2: of condense a few different issues together and that's where

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Speaker 2: you often get this talk of airbnb's having a greater

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Speaker 2: influence than they do. I sort of liking it in

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Speaker 2: a sense that if you had a look on a

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Speaker 2: cold winter's day, and you saw that there was an

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Speaker 2: increasing sale for jackets and an increasing sale for heat pumps.

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Speaker 2: You could make the influence that higher jacket sales influence

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Speaker 2: higher heat pump sales, not really that there's actually a

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Speaker 2: common factor, which is this temperature. For airbnbs, there's more

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Speaker 2: airbnbs over time, as well as higher rental prices because

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Speaker 2: there's more population. That is what it boiled down to.

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Speaker 2: When we sort of looked at all of the figures together,

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Speaker 2: we put them all into our model and we said,

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Speaker 2: what is the biggest influence on these outcomes on rents

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Speaker 2: and house prices? Population growth came out of a country

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Speaker 2: bile ahead. I mean for Queenstown, for example. We estimate

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Speaker 2: that broadly, over the last six years, the likes of

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Speaker 2: population growth contributed about a one hundred and one dollar

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Speaker 2: per week increase in rents. Airbnb did around eleven dollars.

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Speaker 1: Right, would you as Queenstown unique though, because there'd be

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Speaker 1: a lot of flash houses in Queenstown that yes, you'd

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Speaker 1: higher out for five nights in a year at two

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars a night versus having some ski bum hang

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Speaker 1: out for fifteen hundred dollars. We can wreck your house.

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Speaker 2: Quite possible, and I think the thing with Queenstown, that's

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Speaker 2: why we did spend a bit more time on it

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Speaker 2: because it does have a much larger concentration of short

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Speaker 2: term rental accommodation, so we did have a bit of

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Speaker 2: a look at that. That's why I just gave you

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Speaker 2: those numbers to try and highlight that figure. When we

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Speaker 2: looked at other areas though, So we looked at the

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Speaker 2: likes of Auckland, Wellington christ Church are much much bigger areas.

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Speaker 2: The concentration of airbnbs in those areas is quite a

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Speaker 2: bit smaller, so they just don't really have any discernible effect.

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Speaker 2: I mean talking, I think it's since per week, since

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Speaker 2: per month difference airbnbs do, so it's just not a

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Speaker 2: significant influence.

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Speaker 1: Good insight, mate, Nice to have you on the program.

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Speaker 1: Has always Brad Olson infor Metric's chief executive.

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