1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: Now there's some debate about New Zealand's position on the 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: US strikes in Iran. It's been labeled to disgrace by 3 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Helen Clark because the official statement doesn't 4 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: condemn the strikes outright, and Chris Luxen, the Prime Minister, 5 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: was reluctant to answer whether the United States acted illegally. 6 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: The US and Israelis obviously made independent attacks, so we 7 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: weren't informed about those beforehand or an advance or any 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 2: of that stuff. You know, they may well have information 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 2: that has informed the legal basis for those attacks. 10 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: Al Gillespie is a law professor at the University of 11 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: Waikatou and of course an international law expert. And with 12 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 1: us Hi Al, hey, Heather, I mean it was illegal, 13 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: wasn't it? 14 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 3: And THEREI yeah, it's completely illegal. There's nothing can do 15 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 3: you in charter that says you can bomb someone who 16 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 3: won't negotiate with you. You would need Security Council approval 17 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 3: and that was not given him this instance. Theempt the 18 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 3: exception to that as if it was a preemptive attack 19 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: and it was an overwhelming necessity, and that cannot be 20 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 3: seen in this instant either. 21 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: Do you agree with Helen Clark that it was a 22 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: disgrace that we didn't say that. 23 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 3: I wouldn't. It's complicated at the moment because even though 24 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 3: you've got a theory of international law, the practice is 25 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 3: that international law is in a very difficult place. And 26 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 3: most of our foreign policy right now is not about 27 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 3: upholding international law. It's a but not offending mister Trump. 28 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 3: And so what may be theoretically correct and what's politically 29 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 3: correct for two different things? 30 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: So would you, I mean, is this basically you agreeing 31 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,199 Speaker 1: that the rules based order has broken down? 32 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: Oh completely? It's ever well in history, it comes and 33 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: it goes. But I mean you have to look at 34 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 3: what's going on with say climate change right now, or 35 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 3: trade law, or Russia in Ukraine and everywhere you're seeing 36 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 3: a collapse, or nuclear arms control. A lot of those 37 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 3: rules that have kept stability and sustainability working are currently 38 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: being highly questioned. Normally, what happens do you have a 39 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 3: calamity and then we rebuild? But right now we're on 40 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 3: the wrong side of the slope. 41 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: Now, what's your best prediction for what happens in the 42 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: Middle East? 43 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: Well, I think winning the air war and their power 44 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 3: is and I think that the technological superiority of America 45 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 3: and Israel is easily superior, and they will defeat that 46 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 3: part of the conflict within the next three or four 47 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: weeks because Iran will run out of missiles or their 48 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 3: launchers will just get taken out. That's the easy part. 49 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 3: The hard part is the regime change that follows, because 50 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 3: you can't do that without putting boots on the ground. 51 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 3: The likelihood of those who still want to retain the 52 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 3: power that the Aatola had maybe twenty percent of the 53 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: population fighting hard, is strong, and they will fight external 54 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 3: enemies and internal enemies, and at that point you might 55 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 3: get pulled into the conflict to stop the bloodshed of 56 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 3: the civil war. 57 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: Do you reckon he can wrap it up in four weeks. 58 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 3: I think he can wrap up the airpower part. But 59 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: the hard part is what happens next, because if you 60 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 3: look at our recent precedent, whether you look at Afghanistan, 61 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 3: look at Libya, you look at Syria, you look at Iraq, 62 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 3: you've got four failures. And yet that's exactly where we're 63 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 3: going right now with the population which is double the 64 00:02:58,120 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 3: size of nearly nineteen million people. 65 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: And so is there any chance that it is I mean, 66 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: remains contained to Iran's borders or does it spill over. 67 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 3: Well, the military conflict will stay within the region. I mean, 68 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 3: the good news is that Russia and China will not 69 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: come to the defense of Iran. But you may face 70 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 3: a humanitarian catastrophe. If the problem for Europe is not 71 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 3: the bloodshed with an Iran, it's the refugee searcher that follows. 72 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: And Europe's quite right now, It's got no appetite for 73 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 3: more people. But if for civil war breaks out, which 74 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: is quite possible, and there's a lot of indebtor in 75 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 3: that part of the world where other people want to 76 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 3: settle scores, then the surge of people crossing the border 77 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 3: could be excessive. 78 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll you make a very good point. Thank you 79 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: very much. Good to talk to you as always. Al 80 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: Gillespie White Couple University law professor, International law expert. For 81 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: more from Heather Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news Talks. 82 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 83 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.