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Speaker 1: Ever due for see Allen, if you've got a mortgage,

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Speaker 1: maybe there's a little bit light at the end of

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Speaker 1: the tunnel. The Reserve Bank has left the official cash

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Speaker 1: rate unchanged today, but economists reckon his tone has become softer.

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Speaker 1: Jared Kerr is key we Bank's chief economist and with

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Speaker 1: us Now, Hey, Jared, hi, right, So are you expecting

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Speaker 1: a cup in November?

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Speaker 2: Still? Yep. We're sticking with that forecast. And the commentary

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Speaker 2: that we saw out of the Reserve Bank today suggests

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Speaker 2: that are opening the door to a rate cut earlier

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Speaker 2: than they had expected.

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Speaker 1: Do they still sound to you? I mean they're saying

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Speaker 1: that the inflation is going to be within the target

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Speaker 1: band of one to three this half of the year,

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Speaker 1: which is bringing it forward slightly, but it's still lingering

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Speaker 1: concerns about sticky inflation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there is, But I think they had to acknowledge

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Speaker 2: the collapse and business confidence we saw last week. And

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Speaker 2: we've got very weak household confidence at recessionary levels, and

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Speaker 2: we've been in a recession for a year and a half.

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Speaker 2: So you know, enough enough, it's time to turn the

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Speaker 2: tide and start lowering rates.

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Speaker 1: Do you think then, okay, that the data that we've got.

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Speaker 1: So of all the data that we've got between now

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Speaker 1: and let's say November, what is it that we need

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Speaker 1: to be looking at to be seeing whether it does

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Speaker 1: happen in November?

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Speaker 2: I think everything comes out in inflation. The next inflation report,

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Speaker 2: I'm not that interested in. It's the third quarter, the

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Speaker 2: September quarter inflation report that comes out mid October that

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Speaker 2: has us excited because we forecast inflation will be below

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Speaker 2: three percent then and that'll open the door for a

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Speaker 2: cut in November.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, Jared, so right down to the wire. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. There's Jared Kirky, we Banks, chief economist. For

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Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to News

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