1 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: Kiota. 2 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The recovery 4 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: operation at the Mount Monganui landslide continues, with police warning 5 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 2: it could take days or even weeks. Totonga City Council 6 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 2: has launched an investigation into what happened in the run 7 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: up to the deadly landslide, and already questions are being 8 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: asked about who knew what and when. We'll talk to 9 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: University of Canterbury's Senior Lecturer in Disaster risk and Resilience, 10 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 2: doctor Tom Robinson, about the danger of landslides after severe 11 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: weather events. But first on the Front Page ends at 12 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: Herald's senior investigative reporter, Michael Morra has been in Mount 13 00:00:54,320 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: Montanuey for several days and joins us now. First off, Mike, 14 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 2: you've been to the site. Tell me what is it like. 15 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 3: It's incredibly sad. Actually, you have workers, police, us digger drivers, 16 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 3: truck drivers including families all at the site. You see 17 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 3: a constant stream of police officers and trucks moving in 18 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 3: and out of the site. Is there continuing this process 19 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: to recover the remains of the missing what they're doing 20 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: as a process called delayering, which is essentially going through 21 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 3: the rubble and making the necessary checks. At the same time, 22 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 3: you are seeing family members go through and return incredibly distraught, 23 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 3: and you know, it's just heartbreaking to see if you 24 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 3: can even begin to imagine, and I can't imagine what 25 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 3: this would be like to be at that campground when 26 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 3: this landslide came down, knowing your loved one is trapped 27 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 3: beneath the rubble and hoping and praying that they will 28 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 3: be rescued, and then just not knowing. So you're dealing 29 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 3: with that enormous trauma and shock, and then hours and 30 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 3: days of wondering will they be brought out alive. I mean, 31 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 3: it's just unimaginable. 32 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: You've spoken to people on the ground. 33 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 3: What have they said, Well, I've spoken to lots of 34 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 3: people on the ground. I think the most pertinent piece 35 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 3: of information that we have now verified through various interviews 36 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 3: is that early that morning there were signs of the 37 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: hellside deteriorating, very clear signs. We know that teacher Lisa McLennan, 38 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 3: she's a tutor Mournsville Intermediate, and she had a slip, 39 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 3: a small slip hit the back of her camper van 40 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 3: at some point in the night. 41 00:02:58,160 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: It woke her up. 42 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 3: According to another witness, she told him it sounded like 43 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 3: an earthquake, and so she then went about waking up 44 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 3: other campers, including a man called Lance McFarlane, to warn 45 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 3: them to get out, and explain to Lance McFarlane that 46 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 3: I had to wake you up and I'm sorry about this, 47 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 3: but if I didn't wake you up and something happened, 48 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 3: I wouldn't better live with that, sadly. Lisa McLennan, who 49 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 3: spent all night trying to get others to safety, then 50 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 3: went into the ablution block shortly before that major slip 51 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 3: came down at nine point thirty one am and was 52 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 3: buried in the rubble. She is one, of course, of 53 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: the sixth missing in this tragedy. 54 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 2: Well, presumably to warn others. 55 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 3: Absolutely you know, she took it upon herself. And it 56 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 3: was in fact, on day one, just hours after this tragedy, 57 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 3: that I was on the scene and gathering interviews with 58 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 3: some hotel owners who lived just directly across the road. 59 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 3: This was when the cordon was a bit smaller and 60 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 3: a woman came up to me, obviously another camper. She 61 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 3: was in tears and she just said to me, you 62 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 3: need to know that a woman who is now stuck 63 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 3: in that ablution block with the debris on top of it, 64 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 3: was a hero. She did all she could to try 65 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 3: and wake people up and get them to safety, and 66 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 3: now she's missing. So that was the first insight as 67 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 3: a journalist that I got to the early warning signs. 68 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 3: We know for a fact that Lisa mclennanan, according to 69 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: Lance McFarlane, who of course credits Lisa with saving his 70 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 3: life and that of his daughter, we know that she 71 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: went to the campground office early that morning to try 72 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 3: and notify them and the camp rend manager, this council 73 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 3: owned campground of course, that there was a major problem. 74 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 3: No one was there. She tried to call the after 75 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 3: ours number that went through to security, but no one 76 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 3: turned up. In fact, Lance McFarlane said the first time 77 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 3: that campground staff were at the office was around eight 78 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 3: point thirty. We also know at seven forty two am 79 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 3: on the morning of the slip, there's a photograph that 80 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 3: was taken by another passer by, and that shows a 81 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 3: council golf cart with the campground manager and another council 82 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 3: person you know, driving past In the words of Lance McFarlane, 83 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 3: they did tell the campground manager about what was going on, 84 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 3: but he says they seem more concerned about a major 85 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 3: slip that had already come down behind the surf club. 86 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: Of course, that slip was some distance from the surf club. 87 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 3: It was not a threat to life or property at 88 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: that time. But certainly at no stage was there any 89 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 3: formal evacuation notice. And what I mean by formal is 90 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 3: there there was no alert, you know, with police or 91 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 3: fans or civil defense saying get out now, despite there 92 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 3: being various calls to authorities raising concerns. So I guess 93 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 3: it is a tragic situation, and it appears one that 94 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 3: could have been avoided had authorities acted sooner when they 95 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 3: got that information. 96 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: We were actually having breakfasts on the corner and then 97 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: who all happened? Kind of went over straight away, tried 98 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: how about where we could, How did you help? We 99 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: were ripping a few tents open, a lot of people. 100 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: We're pretty out of it. It's a lady screaming I 101 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: think her kids or something might have been involved, being 102 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: a couple of young followers looking for their mate, and 103 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: another goal is actually shouting out where his wife was 104 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: I think or she was in there, couldn't help too much. Well, 105 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: kind of did what we could. 106 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 2: I suppose that there are still obviously a lot of 107 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: questions to be answered about the timeline of events that morning, 108 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 2: and it looks like you and colleague Alana have pieced 109 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 2: together a lot of them. Totong A City Council has 110 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 2: launched an independent review into this. Do you think many 111 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 2: of those questions will be answered? Then? 112 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: Look, I think with the plethora of inquiries there is 113 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 3: the independent review with the city council. I know that 114 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has referred to you know, doing 115 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 3: a review as well police a doing an investigation to 116 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 3: establish whether there's any criminal liability, and you've also got 117 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 3: work Safe doing an investigation. Always with these reviews you 118 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 3: will get a timeline. We will know precisely what occurred, 119 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 3: even though you know, through the Herald's journalism we have 120 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 3: already started to paint a picture of precisely what happened there. 121 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: So you know, I do think we will get some answers. 122 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 3: Speaking to Mahi Drysdale, Tito's mayor down there at the scene, 123 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 3: he accepts that there are legitimate questions and he's given 124 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 3: a full commitment to providing answers to those questions in 125 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 3: a public forum. I did put to him that isn't 126 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 3: it already obvious that there have been significant failings in 127 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 3: this situation. He did not accept that, saying as other 128 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 3: ministers saying, at the moment, we need to wait until 129 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 3: we've got all the facts before we draw conclusions. 130 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 2: And of course we still need to say that six 131 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 2: people remain unaccounted for. Can you explain to us a 132 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 2: little bit why though that wording is used? 133 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 3: Well, I guess the key thing here is that you 134 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 3: have the families at the site. We know that their 135 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 3: loved ones were there, and we know that those people 136 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 3: did not make it out unaccounted for. I guess because 137 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 3: there is a very complex and potentially long process involving 138 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 3: the coroner. And the Chief Coroner spoke a bit about this, 139 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 3: and the issue here is that the remains of those 140 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 3: missing have to be recovered and then there is an 141 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 3: identification process. Now, that process can take a long time, 142 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 3: and the chief coroner has explained this to the families 143 00:09:55,559 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 3: in part because of the serious injuries sustained by those missing, 144 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 3: and it is important, according to the coroner, that the 145 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 3: correct people are returned to the correct family In disasters overseas, 146 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 3: She says that there has been cases where you know, 147 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 3: human remains have been returned to someone and it's the 148 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 3: wrong person, and they don't want to make those sort 149 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 3: of mistakes so unaccounted for as the word use at 150 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: the moment, as soon as those victims have been formally 151 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 3: identified and remains returned to the families, then it's sort 152 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 3: of confirmation of their passing. 153 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Mike Pleasure. 154 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 5: Thank you joining us Now is University of Canterbury's Senior 155 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 5: Lecturer in Disaster risk and Resilience, doctor Tom Robinson, to 156 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 5: discuss what we can learn. 157 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 2: From this disaster. First off, Tom, do you think that 158 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 2: we as New Zealanders are just far too complacent when 159 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 2: it comes to the dangers of landslides. 160 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 4: I don't know if it's that we're too complacent. I 161 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 4: think landslides are an incredibly complex hazard and they're one 162 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 4: that's probably underrepresented or less thought about. We think about 163 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 4: the big hazards that we experience, the big earthquakes, the 164 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 4: volcanoes which are obviously fairly obvious in the landscape, and 165 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 4: flooding and landslides. Although they're fairly common and our most 166 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 4: deadly hazard, we tend not to think about them as much. 167 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 4: I think that's primarily because, unfortunately, sadly, when they do 168 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 4: kill people, it's only in ones and twos. You know, 169 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 4: this recent one mal Mongonery six is tragic and probably 170 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 4: quite a large number before we used to Whereas you 171 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 4: compare that to big earthquakes, we're talking about tens and hundreds. 172 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 4: So I think it's not that we don't pay enough attention, 173 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 4: but they're just not part of our psyche, and they 174 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 4: happen constantly, and so it's a slow drab. I think 175 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 4: one way to think about it is like car crashes. 176 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 4: You know, we talk often about our roads and we 177 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 4: focus on that holiday period, but people are being killed 178 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 4: on our roads all the time, unfortunately, and so a 179 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 4: constant process of just ones or two small numbers, and 180 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 4: that makes them really difficult to focus attention on. This 181 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 4: event has really tragically focused that attention, and so hopefully 182 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 4: that can provide some good outcome, will be a better 183 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 4: focus on landslides going forward. 184 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny to say that because I was thinking 185 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 2: about this this morning, and I mean, we have earthquake 186 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 2: drills and schools now, of course after twenty ten twenty 187 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 2: eleven quakes in christ Church, and I think everyone would 188 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 2: at least know the very basics of what to do 189 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: when an earthquake strikes. But I'm speaking for myself here, 190 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: I would have literally no idea what to do if 191 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 2: I saw earth moving like what we saw in those 192 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 2: phot photos and videos from Mount long Anui. Do you 193 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 2: think we need more education, perhaps in schools or just 194 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 2: generally about what to do in those situations. 195 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's there's there's really good education that's 196 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 4: going on exactly what you say around earthquakes. We've also 197 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 4: got Tsuda armies, Rover long or strong get gone, And 198 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 4: I think you're right, people do know those behaviors. Landslides 199 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 4: much is much more complicated. They tend to be typically 200 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 4: much more rapid. You don't have much warning that they're 201 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 4: that they're coming, and really the best thing to do 202 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 4: is to try and get out of the out of 203 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 4: the way, and that's unfortunately that's that's not often possible. 204 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 4: So I think that we do need a bit more 205 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 4: education around that, but it's probably more around looking for 206 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 4: the signs of landslides particularly where we've got slopes that 207 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 4: are unstable and are looking to progress towards failure. You know, 208 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 4: there's reports from this one where people had seen previous 209 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 4: or smaller slips, are lots of water, muddy water coming out. 210 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 4: That's all really good sign that the landslides are or 211 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 4: that the land is unstable. So I think it's the 212 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 4: education there. What we need to really work on is 213 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 4: a better general understanding of the hazards we have, not 214 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 4: just earthquakes, flooding, tsunami, but then also exactly as you say, 215 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 4: those actions to take those key things to look out for, 216 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 4: and then what to do when you do spot those 217 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 4: those signs. 218 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 2: Right, So what are some of those signs? And I 219 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: suppose what makes landslides so complex? And do we kind 220 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: of know where they're prone to happening or are they 221 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 2: just really erratic? 222 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 4: Great question. So landslides are extremely complicated. It is essentially 223 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 4: a fight between gravity and friction. So gravity is trying 224 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 4: to pull material off the slope and friction is trying 225 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 4: to keep it all together. And so that's constantly changing 226 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 4: and evolving. So we have really steep slopes, you've got 227 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 4: gravity is acting more on slope and so it's more likely. 228 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 4: But the real challenge we have with landslides is knowing 229 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 4: exactly where and importantly when they're going to occur. That's 230 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 4: the challenge that we face. So we have reasonably good 231 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 4: understanding of the processes the cause landslides. We understand to 232 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 4: a degree where they are more or less likely to occur, 233 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 4: But the challenge really is that when, and that's the 234 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 4: real difficulty that we in the research community in particular 235 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 4: have at the moment. So we take this particular slope 236 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 4: in long and earlier at the moment, so we know 237 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 4: there was a slide there in the nineteen seventies, but 238 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 4: as far as I'm aware, there doesn't seem to have 239 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 4: been any instability since. And that includes cycling Wilma in 240 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 4: twenty eleven, include cycling Gabriel and the Auckland anniversary storms. 241 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 4: This Wednesday has happened was that was the wettest day 242 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 4: on record, so that's probably a good sign that's happened there. 243 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 4: But this is the challenge. Even when we tend to 244 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 4: know where landslides are or where they're likely to occur, 245 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 4: actually figuring out exactly when that's going to happen. That's 246 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 4: the real tricky part, and that's something that we're still 247 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 4: trying to grapple with. 248 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, because we do see those like people monitoring earthquakes, 249 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 2: for example, they'll say, oh, there's a chance that this 250 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 2: will happen within the next ten years, et cetera, just 251 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 2: because of the data that they've got through through the 252 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 2: ground moving and stuff. So I suppose, and they're not 253 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 2: always accurate, right, but they give you a pretty good idea. 254 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 2: But yeah, with landslides, it would be how would you 255 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: even do that? 256 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 4: That that is the challenge that is probably one of 257 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 4: the challenges in landslide research at the moment. So we're 258 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 4: pretty good at developing models, so we can look back 259 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 4: at previous events. We can look at cycling Gabriel, we 260 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 4: can look at the Kaikora earthquake, where we've had large 261 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 4: landslide s treat. I think we've got some of the 262 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 4: some of the largest landslide invotries in the world in 263 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 4: New Zealand because we have them so commonly, So we 264 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 4: can use those to figure out where landslides are likely 265 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 4: to occur. But it's still that timing issue that's really critical. 266 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 4: So earthquakes, obviously we can't predict earthquakes, we can estimate 267 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 4: this is where an earthquake is likely to occur, this 268 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 4: is where the shaking might be, and therefore where landslides 269 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 4: might be. But until that earthquake happens, you don't know storms. 270 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 4: You can see those storms coming. We've got pretty good 271 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 4: short range and even long range forecasting now, so we 272 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 4: can start to get better at that. But even then, 273 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 4: it's still really hard to say exactly when a landslide 274 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 4: might occur. And I think the mountain on the Newise 275 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 4: slide here is a really good example. If if you 276 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 4: look at the videos, this appears to have occurred after 277 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 4: the rainfall during blue skies, a period when people might think, okay, 278 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 4: that the danger's passed. And I think that's the other 279 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 4: difficulty here with landslides is sometimes that failure starts quite 280 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 4: slowly and accelerates over time, and that time can take 281 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 4: a matter of minutes, a matter of hours, potentially even days. 282 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 4: So again it's that timing thing that's a real challenge 283 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 4: for us, and that's probably one of the key research 284 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 4: questions that we globally we're trying to answer at the moment. 285 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 2: When it comes to landslides. I've always been curious if 286 00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 2: you see the earth moving above you, is it really 287 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: quick like, because they say that once you see a tsunami, 288 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 2: for instance, coming towards you, then you can't run out 289 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:10,120 Speaker 2: of the way. But does it differ between landslides whether 290 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 2: how quick they actually move. 291 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, it does so landslides, I mean. The other difficulty 292 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 4: with them is they take very different forms, so there's 293 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 4: lots of different styles of motion or styles of failure. 294 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 4: So you can have something like this which is quite 295 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 4: wet and slides quite quickly and then transitions into a flow, 296 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 4: so it kind of looks it looks like water, but 297 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 4: it's actually lots of mud. You can then get rock fall, 298 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: where you get individual boulders falling downhill and bouncing towards you, 299 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 4: avalanching where you get lots of looks like a snow avalanche, 300 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 4: where it's comprised of rock. And then you can also 301 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 4: get these really slow creeps that just move a couple 302 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 4: of millimeters, may be a color of centimeters every hour 303 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 4: or every day or so, so they're really variable. But 304 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 4: if you see a slip, if you see the earth moving, 305 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 4: the best thing you can possibly do is just get 306 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 4: out of that area as fast as fast as possible. 307 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 4: And I mean the obvious thing there is, you know, 308 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 4: landslides travel downhill. They typically take fastest direct route downhill, 309 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 4: so moving quickly away, laterally horizontally away from that side. 310 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 4: So if you're on a road or if you're on 311 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,959 Speaker 4: a walking path and you come and you see that 312 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 4: starting slide, go back the way you came and as 313 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 4: quickly as possible to get to a safe distance. 314 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 2: And moving horizontally as well. I mean, I wouldn't have 315 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 2: thought of that, but that would make sense, wouldn't it. 316 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 2: If you're getting out of the out of its way 317 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: kind of thing. That's a really good point to make 318 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 2: in terms of these severe storm events. They're becoming more common, right. 319 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, and that is driven by climate change. So 320 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 4: as the atmosphere warms up, you have the ability, for 321 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 4: first of the atmosphere can hold more moisture. So therefore, 322 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 4: if it can hold more moisture, you can have higher, 323 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 4: more intense rainfall. But it's also the frequency that those 324 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 4: storms are coming. And you only have to look over 325 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 4: the last five ten years to really see that how 326 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 4: much that's picked up. In New Zealand, I think all 327 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 4: of our minds are drawn back to Cyclon Gabriel in 328 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, but there's been plenty of floods and 329 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 4: storms since then. I mean the East Cape has been 330 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 4: particularly badly affected over the last several years. So yeah, 331 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 4: this is one of the consequences of climate change. As 332 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 4: the atmosphere starts to warm, more moisture, more storms form, 333 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 4: Therefore we get more intense rainfall. That more intense rainfall 334 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 4: is going to lead to more landslides and larger numbers 335 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 4: spread all across the areas that are going to be affected. 336 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 4: And that's part of living in New Zealand. We live 337 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 4: in the raw and forties, tropical cyclones or extropical cyclones, 338 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 4: large southeast storms coming through as part of living here, 339 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 4: but they are becoming more frequent and so we should 340 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 4: expect to see these kind of large scale landslide events 341 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 4: more frequently as the storms increase. 342 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 6: It has been a tough start to the year for 343 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 6: many people who have been impacted by the recent weather 344 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 6: event across the North Island. Tragically, we have lost nine 345 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 6: people in the weather event and one person remains missing. 346 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 6: To the families who have lost their loved ones at 347 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 6: Mount Monganui, Welcome Bay and Walkworth in the family of 348 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 6: a man who is still missing the Apodocy. Our hearts 349 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 6: and our thoughts are with you all. Over the last 350 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 6: few days, Mark Mitchell and I have visited a number 351 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 6: of communities across the North Island and seen firsthand the devastation. 352 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 6: Some people have lost their homes and their livelihoods, and 353 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 6: others have been isolated after major roads have failed. While 354 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 6: this weather event is not of the scale or Cyclone 355 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 6: Gabriel in terms of the number of people affected, for 356 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 6: those who have been affected, the impact is significant. 357 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 2: In terms of looking out and mitigating landslide risk. I mean, 358 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 2: I know that we don't know how or when or 359 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 2: when when they're going to happen, right, Should we know 360 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 2: places where not to have campgrounds, where not to have buildings? 361 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 2: By now? 362 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 4: Probably that? Probably yes? I think we understand the kinds 363 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 4: of locations where landslides are likely to occur, and we 364 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 4: understand the kind of regions that they're likely to run 365 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 4: out to, so we should be able to identify those zones. 366 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 4: And that that's a fair question around, you know, should 367 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 4: should we actually be more more acutely looking at the 368 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 4: places that we inhabit. Timing is always going to be 369 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 4: the issue. But I think that's that's the conversation that 370 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 4: we need to have, is should we be living in 371 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 4: these zones. Should we be, you know, having tourist sites 372 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 4: in these zones. Should we be having roads or recreate 373 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:55,160 Speaker 4: whatever recreational facilities that might be. That The difficulty there, though, 374 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 4: is it's not just landslides that we've got to think about. 375 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 4: We've got to think about flooding. We've got to think 376 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 4: about coastal inundation. We've got earthquakes, we've got volcanoes. We're 377 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: a beautiful island nation because of all of these hazards. 378 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 4: That makes it difficult though to decide where is safe 379 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 4: to live. And the reality is there's never going to 380 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 4: be somewhere that is perfectly safe to live or to camp. 381 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 4: So we need to actually take all hazards approach. We 382 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 4: can't just say we're not going to live at the 383 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 4: bottom of this slope because there's potential for landslides, because 384 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 4: moving somewhere else might move you on closer to a fault, 385 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 4: well closer to a volcano, or onto a floodplain. So 386 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 4: we really actually need a while we've got all hazards approach, 387 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 4: where we really look at where all of the potential 388 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 4: hazards are, how likely they are, and what the impacts 389 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 4: of those events those hazards are likely to be to 390 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 4: try and decide where the safest location is. The safest 391 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 4: doesn't mean no risk, and that's something that we have 392 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,479 Speaker 4: to as a nation accept, is that there's always going 393 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 4: to be some risk. But trying to find what is 394 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 4: the lowest risk and what is the lowest risk that 395 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 4: we're prepared to live with and we're prepared to accept 396 00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 4: as a nation, that's the challenge. 397 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 2: And in terms of the slope at Mount Montnui in 398 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 2: that ground there, could that ever be considered safe again? 399 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,959 Speaker 4: I mean, it's difficult to know. Without without the detailed 400 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 4: geotechnical report here of what's actually happened at this site, 401 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 4: it's going to be difficult to know. It's it's hard 402 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,399 Speaker 4: to rehabilitate slopes for one a better term, so it's 403 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 4: mitigating them. Back to it. We know that the type 404 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 4: of the type of rock there, it's as ryolite, which 405 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 4: is a type of volcanic rock that's particularly prone to 406 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 4: landsliding under under heavy rainfall. And we've seen that right, 407 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 4: It's not just the slope. The whole of Mammonui has 408 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 4: experienced slips. The walking tracks were closed. Any major rainstorm 409 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 4: that comes through there cause it's slips. So whether or 410 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 4: not that slope can be rehabilitated for one of a 411 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 4: better term or put backs as it was, remains to 412 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 4: be seen. I think there's probably larger issues there around 413 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 4: whether that's even appropriate given what's happened up there, and 414 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 4: that will need to be something that's there's this GUS. 415 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 4: I've thought about wider with the local community, local EUE 416 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 4: people affected to really think about the land us around 417 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,119 Speaker 4: there and what's appropriate. 418 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Tom, Thank you. That's it for 419 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 2: this episode of the Front Page. You can read more 420 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 2: about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enziherld dot 421 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 2: co dot nz. The Front Page is hosted and produced 422 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 2: by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie is our studio operator, 423 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 2: Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer 424 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 2: is Jane Ye. Follow the Front Page on the iHeart 425 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,360 Speaker 2: app or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us 426 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 2: next time for another look beyond the headlines.