1 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Kiota. 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The Coalition 4 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: government has unveiled its second budget. Over twenty billion dollars 5 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,279 Speaker 2: in savings has been found over the next four years, 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: more than half from the controversial changes to our pay 7 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: equity scheme. There are changes to key we save a 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: contributions means testing for support for parents, and a major 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: new tax incentive for businesses. Finance Minister Nikola Willis has 10 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 2: said that it is a responsible budget, while Labor has 11 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: called it an austerity budget that leaves women out and 12 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 2: is stealing from our kids. To break down what all 13 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 2: of this means for you today on the Front Page, 14 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: we're joined by Enzit Herald Business Editor at Large Liam 15 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: dan So. Nikola Willis has called this a growth budget. 16 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 2: Labour's gone with austerity. If you had to pick a pithy, 17 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: one word descriptive of this budget, Liam, what would you 18 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: go with? 19 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: Oh, good question, sort of a tightrope balancing act, something 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 3: like that. It's a little bit of austerity and a 21 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,919 Speaker 3: little bit of growth, some big cuts to some things 22 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 3: and there's a big roll of the dice for example, 23 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 3: in terms of hoping that business is going to really 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: grab this tax cut and invest for growth. So that's 25 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,559 Speaker 3: probably it's probably where they really rolled the dice big 26 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 3: on that one. You know, I was wondering, where's the 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 3: growth coming from. They still had growth budget at the 28 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 3: top of all the press releases, but you know, six 29 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: six billion, six point four billion over four years. It's 30 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 3: a significant break, especially if you think of a small 31 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 3: business someone who's having to upgrade all their tools and 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: you know, their transport and all that sort of stuff 33 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 3: every five years or so. To get a twenty percent 34 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: break when they do that, it could be quite a 35 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: substantial amount of money for them. So it's an incentive 36 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: to upgrade all the equipment earlier, you know, and make 37 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 3: themselves more a fit and drive some productivity, which we're 38 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 3: always talking about. So that's the that's the idea. The 39 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: theory is that that will mean the businesses will invest 40 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 3: more in up to date technology, latest equipment, and they'll 41 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: be more efficient and workers will be more productive and 42 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 3: the economy will benefit because of that. 43 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: The key we saver changes are one of the big 44 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,839 Speaker 2: changes here. Hey, taxpayers will now get two hundred and 45 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 2: sixty dollars and seventy two cents from the government, down 46 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 2: from five hundred and twenty one. In return, employees and 47 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 2: employers default contribution will rise to four percent from three percent, 48 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: which is being phased in over the next three years. 49 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: What sort of impact could that change have. 50 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, so the net outcome is that people would save 51 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 3: more over the period of time. I mean the risk 52 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 3: with cutting that tax break is so it's been cut 53 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: by half, so you know, it was five hundred dollars 54 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 3: a year. You can say, well, you've lost two hundred 55 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 3: dollars a year, but you compound that over twenty years 56 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: and you can do some maths and say that that's 57 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 3: actually potential taking you know, twenty thousand or whatever out 58 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 3: of people's long term retirement savings. But that is more 59 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: than compensated for by the increase to the contributions, which 60 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 3: will come out of the employee's pocket and the employer's pocket. 61 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 3: But hopefully, you know, half a percent at a time 62 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 3: won't be too onerous. So sort of a step in 63 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: the right direction in terms of lifting those investment rates. 64 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 3: In Australia, they're up to twelve percent or something. 65 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: Well or thirteen now, Yeah. 66 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 3: And obviously that would sound horrendous to suddenly take an 67 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 3: extra nine or ten percent out of your pay and 68 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 3: for employers to have to pay that. But if you 69 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 3: if you step your way there, gradually you know they've 70 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 3: got four trillion dollars in their superannuation scheme. And we 71 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 3: look across the Tasman and say why are they richer 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 3: than us? Well, it's because they've saved the money and 73 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: they've got all this money. 74 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: This is not authterity. 75 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 4: In fact, it is what you do to avoid austerity 76 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: because getting the books in shape ensures New Zealand has 77 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: financial security and choices into the future. That's right, And 78 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 4: as I am about to set out, savings in this 79 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 4: budget have allowed us to make much needed investments in health, any, education, 80 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: law and order and rebuilding our defense force. 81 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well New Zealanders are notoriously bad savers, and key 82 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 2: we saver for a lot of us is our main investments. 83 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 2: So is this government telling people to pull their bootstraps 84 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 2: up and put some more evident in. 85 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess a little bit. You know, it's it's 86 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 3: a bit of that. I mean, there's there's a bit 87 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 3: of that all through this budget. It's definitely to nature, 88 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 3: to any Wellington Business editor said it called it the 89 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 3: true blue budget. It is very much some ideological or 90 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 3: political decisions. They are like no more dolls for the 91 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 3: eighteen to nineteen year olds. Parents have to look after 92 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 3: them or they have to have to go back to study. 93 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 3: If you can't get a job, you've got to be studying, 94 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 3: otherwise you're in the You're still responsibility of their parents 95 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 3: to pay for It was quite a big change. 96 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 2: If it was short sighted as well, because I mean 97 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 2: going to UNI for some people immediately out of school 98 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 2: that it isn't an option for some people, or in 99 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 2: some people's minds it isn't. 100 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: No I guess you know, there are other things you 101 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 3: could be looking for apprenticeships or looking for more vocational 102 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 3: training and things, but you know they have to make 103 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 3: sure the pathways are there to do that. My concern 104 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 3: would be for some of those communities where unemployment is 105 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 3: endemic and mum and dad are unemployed. But I can 106 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 3: see you know that that true blue bit is that 107 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 3: I guess that from the right wing political perspective, it's 108 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 3: to try and push people to get motivated and go 109 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 3: and look after themselves. But it could be quite a 110 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 3: shock in the short term for some people. 111 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 2: The investment boost tax is a big one as well. 112 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 2: You mentioned it before. Business is allowed to deduct twenty 113 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 2: percent of the cost of new assets immediately from their 114 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 2: tax will income on top of normal depreciation. Essentially, this 115 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: means a lower tax bill and it's believed that over 116 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 2: twenty years this could increase the level of GDP by 117 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 2: one percent and wages by one point five percent. How 118 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 2: big of a deal is this change, given how long 119 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 2: term those benefits are. 120 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: I was just talking with an economist, Christina Long from 121 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 3: enzi Are, and she wasn't that impressed with it, like 122 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 3: in terms of the overall transformative nature of it, But 123 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 3: I think it is. It's sort of a move in 124 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 3: the right direction to try and lift the productivity of 125 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 3: New Zealand. So we have this reputation for being having 126 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 3: a low productivity rate in the country, in this country, 127 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 3: and there are many reasons, but one of the reasons 128 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 3: that it has been identified is that we just don't 129 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 3: invest to the same level in the latest technology, new equipment, 130 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 3: the stuff that makes each worker be able to generate 131 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 3: more output. You know, if you go to Germany then 132 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 3: it's all robotic factories and all that sort of stuff, 133 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 3: and so anything that incentivizes businesses to invest, it should 134 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 3: incentivize them perhaps to take a risk, expand a bit more. 135 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 3: That's what they want, That's what they talk about when 136 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 3: they say going for growth. It will be interesting to 137 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 3: see because the you know, Employees and Manufacturers Association, Business 138 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: end Z, they've been lobbying for this for a long time. 139 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 3: They've finally got it. I think businesses will kind of 140 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 3: have to put their money where their mouth is now 141 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 3: and get out there and do it. You'd hope, and 142 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: you'd hope that it has some payoff it. It's also 143 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 3: going to be you're going to get that twenty percent 144 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 3: break on your new buying a new forklift anyway, where 145 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 3: you get a twenty percent break on it, that is 146 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 3: kind of a stimulus. So that's where people say this 147 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 3: is an austerity budget or not arguing that that this 148 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 3: is a little bit of stimulus into the economy. So 149 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: you know, one point whatever billion a year over four years. 150 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: Well, basically the people who are holding off buying that 151 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 2: forklift now have an incentive to do so more so 152 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: than before. 153 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, and the true blue bit, the sort of the 154 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 3: right leaning bit is saying, well, the stimulatory part, the 155 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 3: bit where we're putting a bit a bit cash back 156 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 3: into the economy. You could put it in the pockets 157 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 3: of consumers. Consumers might go out and just spend a 158 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 3: little bit, They might drink and eat a little bit more, 159 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 3: which is, you know, maybe good for the short term 160 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 3: health of the economy and hospitality. But if you give 161 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 3: it to the businesses and they invest in the machinery 162 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 3: of the economy the business world, you know, that's positive 163 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: long term. That means that they ultimately should be able 164 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 3: to grow bigger, make more money, employ more people. You've 165 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 3: got to believe, I mean, I'm trying to be a 166 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 3: political here. You've got to believe that business and capitalism 167 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 3: is going to do the job for you to back this, 168 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 3: and obviously this government very clearly does. 169 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 4: So. 170 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: I reckon means testing is one of the themes of 171 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 2: this budget. Hey, government, can we save a Contributions are 172 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 2: now going to stop if you earn one hundred and 173 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 2: eighty thousand dollars a year or more and for the 174 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: best start tax credits that will become income tested. So 175 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 2: starting at families on seventy nine thousand dollars a year. 176 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 2: Is that a smart move from the government. 177 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, some people argue that it's difficult and complex. 178 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 3: You know, you're adding another layer of complexity to have 179 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 3: to means test everything. I guess it seems like a 180 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 3: really a fairly generous bar one hundred and eighty thousand 181 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 3: when you're talking about five hundred dollars or there. You know, 182 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 3: I think if you could afford to top up your 183 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 3: own key, we savior to some extent of it. That's 184 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 3: the case. 185 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 2: Rich people like getting more money, though. 186 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 3: Everyone likes getting more money. Yeah, I wonder. I mean, 187 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 3: it's interesting because they might get a bit better at 188 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,599 Speaker 3: you know, the machinery of means testing, and you know 189 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 3: where does that lead. Well, maybe you know, they've talked 190 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 3: about whether we should be means testing superannuation, so that 191 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 3: if you're actually still learning while you're getting the retirement pension, 192 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 3: you could be means tested, and that's considered quite difficult 193 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 3: to do. Well, perhaps if for government's some getting better 194 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 3: at means testing because they're doing it for some other things, 195 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 3: it becomes part and parcel of what they do. But yeah, 196 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 3: they means test already for student allowances and things like that. 197 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 3: So I guess. I guess there is mechanisms in place. Yeah, 198 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 3: I mean it's all about plowing back a little bit 199 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:51,719 Speaker 3: of money here and there, isn't it. I mean that's 200 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 3: what the finance ministers had to do. They've clawed back 201 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 3: a large chunk from the pay equity sort of reverse all, 202 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 3: and then they're crawing back bits and pieces everywhere else 203 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: to get a few billion here and a few billion there. 204 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: Seventy nine thousand dollars a year for a family. Though 205 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: that's quite low, isn't it. 206 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 5: It is? 207 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 3: The argument is with a real right when government would 208 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 3: even want that benefit there in the first place. So 209 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 3: they've put a means test in so it's really just 210 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,599 Speaker 3: the poorest people I guess that are going to get it. 211 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 2: So last year's budget was all about putting more money 212 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 2: into our wallets with tax cuts and other savings. Is 213 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: there anything in this budget that looks like it will 214 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 2: help ease the cost of living? 215 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: Or have we moved on from that buzz term? 216 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 2: Now there's support for working for families and supercar holders, 217 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 2: but it doesn't feel like a massive support budget. 218 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 3: No, this is not a support budget, and I don't 219 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 3: know whether you'd call it austerity or not. It's probably 220 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 3: depends on your political colors, but it's certainly from that 221 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 3: point of view. You know, it was just that tax 222 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 3: break for business, which may be a little bit stimulatory, 223 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 3: but for ordinary consumers there isn't any stimulus and they 224 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 3: don't want to kick start the inflation again. They don't 225 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 3: want to get back growing the economy just by putting 226 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,079 Speaker 3: money into it, is what they're saying. Well, that's what 227 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 3: the last government did. We're not doing that. We need 228 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: it to come from the ground up, needs to come 229 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 3: from business and export earnings and all that sort of stuff. 230 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't think we expected much support for people. 231 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 3: I'm sure the government would argue that inflation is more 232 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 3: or less under control. I know right now everyone's panicking 233 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 3: about the price of butter and there's some cheese. Yeah, yeah, 234 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 3: don't forget cheese. But basically, you know, weirdly, when dairy 235 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 3: products are going through the roof like that, that's good 236 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 3: news for New Zealand. I mean, there's money coming into 237 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:33,319 Speaker 3: the countries and economists think that overall inflation will stay 238 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,959 Speaker 3: relatively subdued. A few of those key commodity products that 239 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 3: are accepted, you know that are having a bit of 240 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,320 Speaker 3: a moment, but the core inflation in the economy because 241 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 3: of higher unemployment wages coming off, it's expected to stay 242 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 3: pretty subdued. So nobody's ever going to say, hey, the 243 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 3: cost of living is great, but it shouldn't be the 244 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 3: same sort of issue that it was. And I don't 245 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 3: think national would ideologically support the kind of just payments 246 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 3: to people to cope with it anyway, because they would 247 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 3: argue that that would just exacerbate the inflation. 248 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,199 Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned the pay equity changes that's dominated the 249 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 2: political discourse for a few weeks. Now, now that we've 250 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: learned that nearly thirteen billion over four years has been saved, 251 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 2: is it a win for the government to the average 252 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 2: person on the street, that's a pretty big number to 253 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 2: attach a saving. 254 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 3: Two Yeah, Well, I mean, I guess you know, it 255 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 3: has kind of opened up the budget for the government 256 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 3: to do the things they wanted to do, So, you know, 257 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 3: I think didn't David Seymour get in trouble for saying. 258 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: That Brook van Velden saved the budget. Yeah, well, it 259 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: kind of has. 260 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 5: Right. 261 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 3: Whether it's a win for the government, well, we'll have 262 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 3: to wait and see, because I think it's going to 263 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 3: be a hot topic for a while to come, because 264 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: you know, just just at a superficial level politically, money 265 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 3: for businesses, and it's coming out of the potential wage 266 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 3: increases that could have gone to some of the poorest workers, 267 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 3: female workers and female industries and often caring for the 268 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 3: most vulnerable people in society. So you've got a pretty 269 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 3: stark contrast there, and that's something for the opposition to 270 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 3: work with and say, hey, you know, why are we 271 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 3: giving this money to businesses. They're going to have to 272 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 3: really sell this kind of productivity argument, and it's not 273 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 3: not necessarily a simple simple sales job. So I think 274 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 3: the government will still be up against it politically for 275 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: a few more weeks. I think they're hoping that it'll 276 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 3: all just roll on and that maybe by the time 277 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 3: we get to an election, but I've spoken to a 278 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 3: few women who think it might not. 279 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 6: This House has no confidence in the government because it 280 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,599 Speaker 6: has chosen to pay for its budget by cutting the 281 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 6: future wages of working women. Mister Speaker Niicola Willis's pre 282 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 6: budget's been got it half right. This was a scramble 283 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 6: without the lollies. 284 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: A budget that has scrambled. 285 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 6: The government's finances, tried a whole lot of smoke and 286 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 6: mirrors to hide where their cuts are being made, and 287 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 6: to try and confuse Use Islanders with the idea that 288 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 6: they'll be better off when for a lot of key 289 00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 6: we families, this budget is nothing but bad use. 290 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,199 Speaker 2: Well, in terms of infrastructure, we've had some investments in 291 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: rail military equipment, and billion dollars on hospitals upgrades and maintenance, 292 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 2: just under a billion dollars of capital and operating spending 293 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 2: on new classrooms, two hundred and nineteen million on recovery 294 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: work on cyclone damaged roads. Does this feel like a 295 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 2: good infrastructure spend? I ask this only because the Herald 296 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 2: editorial on budget Day said that it is unacceptable for 297 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 2: some of us to have seen our quality of life 298 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 2: fall because of a lack of basic infrastructure. So if 299 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 2: we're saving thirteen billion dollars, shouldn't we be getting something 300 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: a bit more out of it? 301 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 5: Yeah? 302 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 3: I mean this is the spending is fairly basic. It's 303 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 3: the kind of keeping things running, coping with the higher population, 304 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 3: more people living in certain areas, needing the schools, making 305 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 3: sure that the hospitals can cope, and I imagine it's 306 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 3: still going to be plenty of people saying that this 307 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 3: is still going to be an incredibly tight budget for 308 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 3: health and education regardless. So this is where the government 309 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 3: is caught on the spending front. They and the argument 310 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 3: would come back to debt and borrowing because the tax 311 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 3: takes down issues about how quickly it's going to come 312 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 3: back and start putting more money into the government coffers 313 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 3: they're up against it, and so what are the options, Well, 314 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 3: you cut or you borrow, And of course the opposition 315 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 3: is saying, well, we could afford to borrow more, and 316 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 3: depends who you talk to, you know we could, but 317 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 3: that might be taking a higher level of risk than 318 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 3: some people feel like taking. At the moment, we could 319 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 3: probably technically afford to borrow more. But I think one 320 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 3: of the issues that politically holds this government back and 321 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 3: a lot of people who voted for them, is the 322 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 3: sense that governments can actually spend that money. Well, so 323 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 3: after what we've been through with all the borrowing and 324 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 3: spending to get through COVID, but then all sorts of 325 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 3: other stuff that was planned on the infrastructure front and 326 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 3: hasn't happened, people are skeptical about the the ability of 327 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 3: governments to deliver if they borrow more money. So I 328 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 3: think that's a big part of the debate around borrowing 329 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: more you know, New Zealanders country that has to be 330 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 3: ready for the next earthquake or the next major natural disaster, 331 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 3: or the next big international shocks. So I'm kind of 332 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: pleased to see Nikola Willis being prudent there and hopefully, 333 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 3: you know, building for the future. I'm not as gloomy 334 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 3: as some other commentators. If you've talked to Matthew Hooton 335 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 3: or someone like that, they. 336 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: Think it's pretty gloomy. They're all dar livestream. 337 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, until the government is prepared to cut superannuation and 338 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 5: tertiary healthcare, basically this country is heading towards bankruptcy. None 339 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 5: of this takes into account the problems that we've known 340 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 5: about for thirty or forty years that chicken from twenty thirty. 341 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 5: We're going to start that period about fifty percent of 342 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 5: GDP worse than we expected at the end of the 343 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 5: era of reform under the Bulger, Shipley and Clark governments. 344 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 3: He would argue that we're in real trouble, say in 345 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 3: the next ten years, if we don't take some really 346 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 3: radical action and cut back even harder. So the alternative 347 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 3: is to bet on the growth. So I think the 348 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 3: government is rolling the dice, betting on business to grow 349 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 3: this economy and betting, I guess, or hoping that you 350 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 3: know that the boom and the primary sector keeps going, 351 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 3: they can get tourism back. Yeah, those are the things 352 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 3: that need to happen. 353 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 2: Well, ultimately, Liam, do you think this budget is going 354 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: to be a winner with voters or is it a 355 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: bit too middle of the road. 356 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, it could, It could be a difficult cell. But 357 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 3: it is the middle budget, you know, so that the 358 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 3: first budget in power in a three year term. You've 359 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 3: kind of got to deliver all these promises that you made, 360 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 3: so that's pretty costly. Second budget is the one that 361 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 3: might as well be the most unpopular budget, and it's 362 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 3: the one that people might forget because you've got another 363 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 3: one coming up in election year where you can maybe 364 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 3: put something a little bit more like whatever. For Nicholais 365 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 3: said no lolly scramble this year. I'm not sure that 366 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 3: budgets are meant to be a lolly scramble, but a 367 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 3: lolly or two. Yeah, I think I think this budget 368 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 3: probably is quite a hard sell. I mean, the business 369 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 3: community will be quite happy and they'll be excited about it, 370 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 3: and there'll be lots of discussion about growth and maybe 371 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 3: maybe it's you know, from a confidence point of view, 372 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 3: that will be quite good. But for the wider public, 373 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 3: I think it's probably tough. 374 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 2: Sel Thanks for joining us, Liam, cheers. That's it for 375 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 2: this episode of the Front Page. You can read more 376 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot 377 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: co dot MZ. The Front Page is produced by Ethan 378 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 2: Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. 379 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio 380 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in on 381 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 2: Monday for another look behind the headlines.